Category: Currencies

US $$

USD (DX)_ Could trade the FOREX but the currency futures seem easier; and are traded on a regulated exchange.
the Value of the contract is $1000 x the index (which is today 93.000).  The surprise decision by the Swiss National Bank to stop holding down their currency and therefore allow it to rise.And rise it did by some 30% catching the leveraged world on their back foot.  The Euro dropped and the SF rose.

The ECB will announce their version of QE next week on Jan 22nd.

Weekly – Not so much activity in the DX. Trade pressures are up and volume is bullish.
Still at point and a half swing. The next target up is 94.68.

Daily – The SF move caused enough volatility in the DX to stop out any short trades.
Still long from the 86.38, the next target up is 96.04.

A close below 92.04 would signal lower.

30YR T-bonds_ Both e weekly target of 150-14 and the Daily target of 151-12 have been met.

Weekly – Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish.
The next target up is 154-18.

Daily – Trade pressures are up. Volume is bearish.
The next target up is 159-05.

The next short entry is 149.15.

 

US $$

USD(DX)_ long the dollar since the 81.99 long entry.

Weekly – Trade pressures are up and volume is bullish.
the next target up is 94.66.

Daily – Trade pressures are down and volume is bearish.
the next target up is 96.04.

A close below 91.24 would signal lower

30-YR TBONDS_ always a safe haven. would expect Treasuries to react to inflows into the dollar and outflows from equities.

Weekly – Trade pressures are up and volume is bullish.
the next target up is 150-14.

Daily – Trade pressures are down but volume remains bullish.
in the short trade from 147-13 with a stop at the highs.

US $$

USD (DX)_  European economic worries and Russian adventurism is driving the flow of funds to the DX.
and once purchased those same dollars have to go somewhere.

Weekly – after consolidating around the 88.99 target, the subsequent breakout is taking the DX to the 94.68 target.
Trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.

Daily – approaching the 91.72 target.
trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.

a close below 90.79 would signal a short entry.

30YR T_BONDS_ reacting to the dollar.
Weekly –  trade pressures are up, but diverging. volume is neutral.
still in the weekly short trade until a close above the high.

Daily – touched the 146-18 long target on 12/16. now making another run at that same target.
trade pressures are up. volume is bullish and flashing a high volume signal.

142-05 will signal another short entry.

US $$

USD(DX)_ money flows into US

Weekly – in the long trade since the 81.95 long entry in late 2013.
trade pressures remain up. holiday volume is neutral.
next target up is 94.66, just above the June 2010 high.

Daily – trade pressures are up. volume is neutral.
Next target up is 91.72.

a Close below 89.05 could start a correction down.

30 YR T-BONDS_ tested the old  146-18 high and is pulling back.

Weekly – still in the short trade after a retest of the the recent highs.
trade pressures are up. Holiday volume is neutral and light.

Daily – trade pressures are down. volume is neutral.
Also in the long cycle short trade from 142-05. next target down is 134-30.
the retracement trade up started at the long entry of 141-24 and reached the 146-18 profit target.
so, if still in that trade, a retest of the short entry at 142-05 will stop out that retracement trade.

US $$

USD (DX)_  all about money flows between countries.

Weekly – trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.
consolidating around the 88.97 upside target.

Daily – hit the first target down in the short trade.
then turned up dramatically thru the old highs as money flows accelerated into the US markets.
trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.

30yr TBONDS_
Usually follows the dollar flows, but with yields so low it seems the money was going into equities and resulted in selling some bonds.

Weekly – trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.
price tagged the prior high and pulled back.

Daily – trade pressures are down. volume is bearish.
the short trade from 142-05 was not stopped out.
next target down is 134-30.

a close above 146-20 will stop the short trade.

US $$

USD (DX)_
Weekly – Trade pressures are extended up. volume is bullish.
at the 88.97 target and consolidating.

Daily – Trade pressures are down. volume is bearish.
in the short trade from 89.08 to 89.95.

30 YR TBONDS_
Weekly – trade pressures are flat. volume is bullish.
the 146-18 prior high is a resistance level. the short trade from 141-25 is going the wrong way.

Daily – trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.
the long trade from 141-28 is at it’s 145-09 target and should pause here.

Flat, look for the next short opportunity.

US $$

USD (DX)_
Weekly –  trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.
thru the 88.78 target. next target is 94.46.

Daily – trade pressures are declining and about to turn negative. volume is still net bullish.
Asia and European markets are turning down.  the short entry of 89.88 has been triggered.
the next target down is 87.95.

30 YR TBONDS_
should react to the dollar.

Weekly – trade pressures ar down. volume is bullish.
in the short trade from 141-22 down to the 133-27 target.

Daily – trade pressures ahve turned back up. volume is bullish.
in the long trade from 141-24 to the old high of 146-18.

138-36 stops the trade.

US $$

USD (DX)_
Weekly – trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.
in the long trade from 81.75. next target is 88.78.

Daily – trade pressures are down. volume is bullish.
Next target up is 88.81.

the next short entry is 87.82

30YR T-Bonds_  money seems to be coming from the euro side.
Weekly – trade pressures are down. volume is bullish.
in the short trade from 141-22.

Daily  – trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.
in the same short trade as the weekly.

but having a retracement trade up inside that longer cycle.
long from the 141-24 long entry with a 146-16 target.

US $$

USD (DX)_
weekly – Trade pressures remain up. Volume is bullish.

Daily – Trade pressures are down. volume is bearish.
the short entry is 87.66 with a 86.53 target.

88.35 is the stop.

30YR TBonds_
Weekly – trade pressures a re down. volume is bullish.
in the short trade from 143-05.

Daily – trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish.
in the short trade from 143-17

need a trade above 143-07 to restart a move up.

US $$

USD (DX)_
Weekly – The 88.78 target is within reach.
Trade pressures are up and extended. volume is bullish.

Daily – at the 88.18 target, the next target up is 88.61.
trade pressures have turned down. volume is bearish.
the short entry is 86.74.

30YR T_Bonds_
Weekly – Trade pressures are down. volume is bullish.
in the short trade from 143-05. next target down is 135-09.

Daily  – in the short trade from 143-17. next target down is 136-10.
trade pressures are down and volume is bullish.

stop and reverse at 143-07.