Category: Currencies

US $$

USD(DX)
Weekly – Trade pressures are up and vol is bullish.
The weekly trade has broken above the 2012 and 2013 highs and is now retracing to test those old highs as support.

Daily –
the prior 84.73 is acting as support. Trade pressures are up and volume is bullish.
the retracement trade has taken the DX down to the 85.01 down target. The next target down is 83.89.

need a close above 86.62 to resume the long trade.

30YR TBonds_
Weekly – is consolidating around the 141-16 target after a spike above two weeks ago.
trade pressures are overbought. volume is neutral signaling distribution.

Daily – still in the long trade from 139-09. the spike has tested two targets , the 145-16 and the 146-21.
the pull back from these has generated a retracement trade down to the 141-14 downside target.
the next target down is 137-12.
trade pressures are oversold and volume is bearish.

need a trade close above 144-06 to resume the long trade.

 

 

US $$

USD (DX)_
Weekly – trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.
the next target up is 86.78.

Daily – Trade pressures are down. volume is bullish.
The trade is short from 86.14. met the 85.01 target.
the next target sown is 83.89.

need a trade above 86.65 to restart the move up.

30yr T-BONDS_
Weekly – trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.
next target up is 143-16.This target will be at the highs of the last three years.

What will have to happen to have the inflows into the US Dollar to drive this bond price  higher?
A “safe haven” event?

Daily – trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.
Trade is long from 135-00. At the 141-14 target. Expect consolidation here.
The next target up is 146-02.

 

US $$

USD (DX)_
Weekly – Trade and volume pressures are up.
the next target up is 88.76. then up to 94.46 which is near the 2010 high.

Daily – the trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.
the 84.73 level offered no resistance.
the next target up is 88.19.

a trade close below 85.63 would signal a retracement down.

30YR T-BONDS_
Weekly – Trade pressures are up. volume is nuetral.
the next target up is 143-16.

Daily – trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.
the long entry of 139-08 is touched today. a close above signals higher.
the next target up is 141-14.

a close below 135-08 is the stop.

US $$

USD(DX)_
Weekly –  the DX continues this strong move up to the 85.26 target.
trade pressures are up and vol is bullish.

Daily – at the 84.73 target and consolidating.
trade pressures are down. Volume is bullish.

a short trade would be indicated by a move down thru 84.23.

30YR TBONDS_
Weekly – in a retracement in the long trade. sitting on 135-27 support.
trade pressures over-bot and vol is bearish.

Daily – in a retracement down of the up-move. the next target down is 133-30.
Trade pressures are up. vol is neutral.

need a trade thru 139-08 to restart up-move.

US $$

USD (DX)_
the inflows into the dollar have been extraordinary. The move is up from the long entry of 81.75.
Both volume and trade pressures remain up. the next weekly target up is 85.26.

The Daily trade is up from the 80.46 long entry and is pennies away fro the 84.73 target.
volume is bullish and the trade pressures are up, and showing some over-bot pressures.

A trade below 83.95 could start a retracement down to 82.62.

30YR T-Bonds_
What is the FED going to do?
the weekly volume went bearish. and trade pressures while still up, turned down some.
the next target up is 143-16 and the old target of 135-24 is acting as support.

The daily Trade is short from 138-30 with a 133-30 target.
volume is bearish and trade pressures are bearish.

need a trade above 139-20 to get long again.

 

US $$

USD (DX)_
Weekly trade and vol pressures are up.
the weekly has rallied thru the 83.05 targets and is signalling higher to the 85.00 target.

the daily is moving to the 84.22 target with all pressures up.

The Euro is the principal driver with the advent of a form of QE which will act to lower interest rates in the EU.

30YR T-BOND_
Trending higher on bullish vol and positive trade pressures. Over-bot comes to mind.

the weekly target is 143-16.

the Daily trade next target up of 141-14. still in consolidation around the prior target of 139-16.
volume pressures are down and trade pressures are down.
has signaled a move down at the 138-23 short entry then had a retest of the 140-08 high and down again; but no follow thru yet.

US $$

USD (DX)_
Weekly trade pressures are up. the volume remains bullish.
the next target up is 83.05.

the Daily trade is long from 79.63. the next target is 82.90
Daily volume is bullish.

the dollar activity has brought the Euro down from 1.40 to 1.3243. the euro is at its downside target.
so, expect some consolidation in the dollar. this should translate to sluggish-to-down for US stocks.

30YR T-Bonds_
The weekly target of 144-31 remains in place. trade pressures are up and volume is bullish.

after reaching the 141-20 target, the daily trade is short from 140-13. Trade pressures are down, but volume remains bullish
watch for the volume to change.

US $$

USD (DX)_
Weekly trade and volume pressures remain up.
the weekly trade is at the 81.51 target.

The daily trade is at the 81.71 target.
Trade pressures are up. Volume pressures have turned down in the last two days.

the next target up is 83.05.

30yr TBonds_
The weekly has traded thru the 137-06 target and is now moving to the 144-31 target.
Trade pressures and volume pressures remain up.

The daily trade is up but consolidating at the 139-22 target.
the trade pressures are up. the volume pressures are down for these last two days.

a move down thru 138-28 could start a new move down.

 

 

 

US $$

USD (DX)_
Weekly pressures are up. in the long trade with the next target up of 81.51.

the Daily trade is long from the 79.62 longer cycle entry and also long from the short cycle entry of 80.22.
the next target is 81.55.

79.77 is a stop.

30yr TBond_
The weekly pressures are up. the 137-06 target has been met and the next target up is 144-31.
this level would be a test of the 2012 highs.

the Daily trade is now up after taking out the 138-10 pivot. the next target up is 139-22.

a move down thru 136-27 would restart the move down.

US $$

USD_
with all the Ukrainian tensions and the deflation conversations in Europe one would expect the Dollar to rise as safe have funds moved in this direction.  Weekly pressures are turning up. volume is mixed.

The Daily trade is up from the 79.62 long entry in May.  the next target up is 81.55.
Daily trade pressures are down and volume is down. this move down thru 80.46 could restart the move down to retest the lows.

30yr-Tbonds_
the weekly reached the 137-06 target, pulled back and is testing it once again.
trade pressures are up and the volumes are neutral.

The Daily Trade is short from the 136-27 entry and did test the first downside target of 134-14.
volume pressures are up, trade pressures are up.

Today’s trade up thru 136-19 is a new long entry to 139-22. But the safe bet is to wait for the test of the recent 138-10 high before committing.