Trying to be aware of any change in the pressures on the different time frames. The volatility has increased which has generated some large swing days. Sellers seem to have the upper hand. But, for every seller someone is a buyer.
Monthly – Price has closed below the 3 month moving average. Trade pressures are still up but have lost momentum. And for the first time is many months the volume is bearish. 2191 remains the upside target. the monthly short entry is 1869.
Weekly – For the last three weeks prior to Fridays close, price has trade down thru the short entry price for the weekly but closed above; until Friday’s close. The weekly has confirmed the short with the close below 2016.
Daily – has been short on the three month cycle from 2042. The trade has met the 1978 target. The next target down is 1964 and the 200 day moving average. Could have traded the counter trend retracement trade off the January 19th low at 1970 at the 2001 long entry back to 2048, but this is very choppy and the trend is down.
Trade pressures are down. Volume is bearish. Need a close above the 2035 to start a new move up.
USD (DX)_ money flows are in the direction of the dollar and away from the other currencies.
Weekly – trading and consolidating above the 94.66 target. Trading pressures are up. Volume is showing neutral for the first time in weeks. A close below 94.22 could signal lower.
Daily – The same inflows have pushed the dollar to a high of 95.85, very close to the 96.04 target. the trade pressures are neutral. Volume is bullish. The short entry is a close below 94.33.
30YR T-BONDS_ the weekly has some upside target at 160-20 and 164-10, but that would imply some very low yields? And a severe flow out of other asset classes.
Weekly – consolidating above the 150-14 target. Trade pressures are up. volume is bullish. a close below 147-14 would signal a new short.
Daily – Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish. Have reached the 151-12 target. should have some consolidation here. A close below 150-01 would signal a new short entry with a downside target at 147-03.
CRUDE_ saw some short covering in the afternoon on Friday.
Weekly – Trade pressures are still down. Volume is bearish. The next target down is 39.13.
Daily – Trade pressures have turned up. Volume is bullish. Price has closed above the long entry price of 48.05. The next target up is 55.30. The stop is the 43.57 low.
NAT GAS_ NAT GAS has broken down below support.
Weekly – Trade pressures are down. Volume is bearish. The next target down is 2.22.
Daily – has broken below the 2.79 down side target. the next target down is 2.35. Trade pressures are down. Volume is bearish.
Need a close above 2.86 to start anew move up.
COPPER_ testing the 2.41 downside target last week.
Weekly – trade pressures are down. volume is neutral.
the next weekly target down is 2.32.
Daily – Consolidating at the 2.41 target. Trade pressures are turning up.
Volume has turned neutral from bearish.
need a close above 2.52 to start a new move up.
GOLD_ trade to the 1304 target and closed below a retracement short entry.
Weekly – Trade pressures are up Volume is bullish. Appears to have bottomed at the 1142 level. However need to take out the 1426 pivot to confirm a long term up-move.
Daily – Trade pressures have turned down. Volume is bearish. The Trade is short from the 1286 entry price with a 1231 downside target.
SILVER_ trading with gold.
Weekly- Trade pressures are up. Volume is bearish. Next target down is 10.70. Need a weekly close above 21.47 to start a new move up.
Daily – Long from 15.61. The next target up is 18.22 which has been reached. In a pull back for the 18.22 target to the moving average. Trade pressures are down. Volume is neutral.
Monthly – Trade pressures remain up. Volume has turned neutral from bullish.next target up is 2191.
the monthly time cycles show downward pressures into June 2015.
Weekly – Trade pressures are down. Volume has turned neutral from bullish. Price has traded around the 2016 short entry for three weeks but no trigger yet. Be Alert! as this will confirm the Daily sell, and signal lower to 1904.
Daily – the trade was short from the 2037 short entry on Jan 12th. Eventually traded down to the 80 day and other nearby targets around 1978. the 1967 target and the 200 Day moving average are still active.
Trade pressures turned up as price closed above a short cycle retracement long entry at 2001 which was confirmed by a subsequent breakout above the pitchfork. The 2048 target was met and the move up was stopped on Friday by the 2062 pivot high.
Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish. The next target up is 2097.
a close below 2035 would restart the move down.
USD (DX)_ can look at both the rise in the dollar and the decline in oil, they mirror each other. So perhaps when one stops the other does also. the rising dollar makes the US exporters less competitive. 45 percent of the sales from the S&P 500 companies comes from outside the US. so they are “exporters”.
Weekly – the 94.66 target has been met with a large move thru it this last week. A very extended move up. Clearly a flight to the US markets. A close below 94.22 could signal the beginning of a sell off.
Daily – Price has consolidated above the 91.72 target over the last two weeks and then began a big move up last week amid the European QE news. the next target up is 96.04. Trade pressures are down. Volume is bearish. Hard to see the DX going much higher. A move down thru the 94.25 level could see the start of a retracement.
30YR TBonds_ and of course if you are going to buy dollars, then they have to go somewhere; and until some thing better comes along the Treasury bills and bonds seem to be the market of choice.
Weekly – at the 150-14 target. The next target higher is 154-18. Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish.
Daily – has come with in 2 ticks of the 151-12 target at 151-10 high on Friday week. Then the short entry at 149-15 was triggered with a downside target of 146-17. Trade pressures are down and Volume is neutral. Profiting , or a new move down?
EURO Futures (EC)_
weekly – touched the 1.114 down side target. Trade pressures are down. Volume is bearish. Next weekly target is .9365.
Daily – the daily trade has been down from 1.2550. Traded thru the 1.1410 target. the next target down is 1.0488.
Need a trade close above 1.1562 to start a retracement up.to the breakdown at 1.2279.
CRUDE_ Prince Alalweed declares oil will never see $100 again. Russia produces 10 million barrels a day but that is declining. Libya and Iraq are bringing more supplies on line. China growth is slowing so needs less. Japan is a net purchaser of energy, so their economy should see a cost benefit. [http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/25/opinion/sunday/what-happened-to-the-price-of-oil.html?_r=0]. Many cross currents!
Weekly – price is consolidating around the 48.65 target. Volume is bearish. Trade pressures are down. The next target down is 39.125.
Daily – the 44.80 target is acting as support. There is a new long entry at 49.17, but has been no close above that level yet. Trade pressures are down. Volume is bearish. The next target down is the weekly 39.13 target.
NAT GAS_ back at the three year lows, even in the middle of winter.
Weekly – near the the 2012 pivot low of 2.70. The next target down is 2.22. Trade pressures are down. Volume is bearish. Need a close above 3.52 to start a new move up.
Daily – In the long trade from the 3.00 entry. The next target up is the 3.37 level. Trade pressures a down. Volume is bearish. A close below the 2.78 low is a stop.
COPPER_ Each contract represents 25,000 lbs, so each move of a penny is worth $250. China reported a 7.4% GDP growth vs an expected 7.5%. Still it is the lowest rate of growth since 1990. But as a net purchaser of energy, the recent declines in the price of oil should save china $100 billion this next year.
Weekly – Two weeks ago copper dropped thru the 2.64 target, spiked down, then recovered to close near that 2.64 level. This last week apparently in reaction to the China GDP report Copper dropped again as it touched the new resistance that was created by the 2.64 level, it then turned down again. The next weekly target is 2.32. The trade pressures are down and the volume is neutral.
Daily – The Daily trade is up from the long entry of 2.52. But the Trade pressures have turned down. Volume is Bearish. Alcolse below 2.47 would signal lower and cause the trade to be stopped out.
GOLD_ Reacting to the European QE, Gold already in a long trade moved up to the 1276 and the 1304 targets.
Weekly – is moving up off the 1142 downside target. But has not yet triggered the 1426 long entry. Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish.
Daily – Is the in the long trade from the 1193 long entry. The next target up is 1344. Trade pressures are up and volume is bullish. A close below 1278 would signal a retracement down.
SILVER_ seems to be following gold, but at a slower pace.
Weekly – technically in a retracement of the long downward move from 21.50 to the 10.70 target. A close above 21.48 would restart the move up. Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish.
Daily – in the long trade from the 15.61 entry after the spike down to 14.00. The next target up is 20.84. Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish. A close below 16.64 would signal a new move down.
The ECB will announce their version of QE next week on Jan 22nd. European stocks are already on the rise, the EC is down sharply with a 1.1410 target in sight. The thinking is that the EC money will find its way into the stock markets including those US stocks with European exposure; that would include most all the large cap stocks in the S&P 500.
China announces their 4th Qtr GDP on Jan 20th. With Europe in recession China’s growth rate becomes more important.
Monthly – Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish.
the next target up remains 2191.
Weekly – Trade pressures are up and volume is bullish.
the next target up is 2112. The week traded down thru the short entry but did not close below, so still long.
Daily – Down all week then rallied at the close on Friday. The 1977 target held support. the next target down is 1957 and the 200 day moving average. Trading pressures are down. Volume is bullish.
Need a close above 2028 to restart the move up.
USD (DX)_ Could trade the FOREX but the currency futures seem easier; and are traded on a regulated exchange.
the Value of the contract is $1000 x the index (which is today 93.000). The surprise decision by the Swiss National Bank to stop holding down their currency and therefore allow it to rise.And rise it did by some 30% catching the leveraged world on their back foot. The Euro dropped and the SF rose.
The ECB will announce their version of QE next week on Jan 22nd.
Weekly – Not so much activity in the DX. Trade pressures are up and volume is bullish.
Still at point and a half swing. The next target up is 94.68.
Daily – The SF move caused enough volatility in the DX to stop out any short trades.
Still long from the 86.38, the next target up is 96.04.
A close below 92.04 would signal lower.
30YR T-bonds_ Both e weekly target of 150-14 and the Daily target of 151-12 have been met.
Weekly – Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish.
The next target up is 154-18.
Daily – Trade pressures are up. Volume is bearish.
The next target up is 159-05.
The next short entry is 149.15.