Author: Charlie

S&P Futures

Trying to be aware of any change in the pressures on the different time frames. The volatility has increased which has generated  some large swing days.  Sellers seem to have the upper hand.  But, for every seller someone is a buyer.

Monthly – Price has closed below the 3 month moving average. Trade pressures are still up but have lost momentum. And for the first time is many months the volume is bearish.  2191 remains the upside target. the monthly short entry is 1869.

Weekly – For the last three weeks prior to Fridays close, price has trade down thru the short entry price for the weekly but closed above; until Friday’s close. The weekly has confirmed the short with the close below 2016.

Daily – has been short on the three month cycle from 2042.  The trade has met the 1978 target. The next target down is 1964 and the 200 day moving average.  Could have traded the counter trend retracement trade off the January 19th low at 1970 at the 2001 long entry back to 2048, but this is very choppy and the trend is down.

Trade pressures are down. Volume is bearish.  Need a close above the 2035 to start a new move up.

US $$

USD (DX)_ money flows are in the direction of the dollar and away from the other currencies. Weekly – trading and consolidating above the 94.66 target. Trading pressures are up. Volume is showing neutral for the first time in weeks.  A close below 94.22 could signal lower. Daily – The same inflows have pushed the…

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Oil & Gas

CRUDE_ saw some short covering in the afternoon on Friday. Weekly – Trade pressures are still down. Volume is bearish. The next target down is 39.13. Daily – Trade pressures have turned up. Volume is bullish. Price has closed above the long entry price of 48.05. The next target up is 55.30.  The stop is the…

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Metals

COPPER_ testing the 2.41 downside target last week. Weekly – trade pressures are down. volume is neutral. the next weekly target down is 2.32. Daily – Consolidating at the 2.41 target. Trade pressures are turning up. Volume has turned neutral from bearish. need a close above 2.52 to start a new move up. GOLD_ trade…

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S&P Futures

Monthly – Trade pressures remain up. Volume has turned neutral from bullish.next target up is 2191.
the monthly time cycles show downward pressures into June 2015.

Weekly – Trade pressures are down. Volume has turned neutral from bullish. Price has traded around the 2016 short entry for three weeks but no trigger yet. Be Alert! as this will confirm the Daily sell, and signal lower to 1904.

Daily  – the trade was short from the 2037 short entry on Jan 12th. Eventually traded down to the 80 day and other nearby targets around 1978.  the 1967 target and the 200 Day moving average are still active.

Trade pressures turned up as price closed above a short cycle retracement long entry at 2001 which was confirmed by a subsequent breakout above the pitchfork. The 2048 target was met and the move up was stopped on Friday by the 2062 pivot high.

Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish. The next target up is 2097.

a close below 2035 would restart the move down.

US $$

USD (DX)_ can look at both the rise in the dollar and the decline in oil, they mirror each other. So perhaps when one stops the other does also.  the rising dollar makes the US exporters less competitive.  45 percent of the sales from the S&P 500 companies comes from outside the US. so they…

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Oil & Gas

CRUDE_ Prince Alalweed declares oil will never see $100 again. Russia produces 10 million barrels a day but that is declining. Libya and Iraq are bringing more supplies on line. China growth is slowing so needs less. Japan is a net purchaser of energy, so their economy should see a cost benefit.   [http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/25/opinion/sunday/what-happened-to-the-price-of-oil.html?_r=0].  Many cross currents!…

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Metals

COPPER_ Each contract represents 25,000 lbs, so each move of a penny is worth $250.  China reported a 7.4% GDP growth vs an expected 7.5%. Still it is the lowest rate of growth since 1990. But as a net purchaser of energy, the recent declines in the price of oil should save china $100 billion this next year.

Weekly – Two weeks ago copper dropped thru the 2.64 target, spiked down, then recovered to close near that 2.64 level. This last week apparently in reaction to the China GDP report Copper dropped again as it touched the new resistance that was created by the 2.64 level, it then turned down again.  The next weekly target is 2.32. The trade pressures are down and the volume is neutral.

Daily – The Daily trade is up from the long entry of 2.52. But the Trade pressures have turned down. Volume is Bearish. Alcolse below 2.47 would signal lower and cause the trade to be stopped out.

GOLD_ Reacting to the European QE, Gold already in a long trade moved up to the 1276 and the 1304 targets.

Weekly – is moving up off the 1142 downside target. But has not yet triggered the 1426 long entry. Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish.

Daily – Is the in the long trade from the 1193 long entry. The next target up is 1344. Trade pressures are up and volume is bullish. A close below 1278 would signal a retracement down.

SILVER_  seems to be following gold, but at a slower pace.

Weekly – technically in a retracement of the long downward move from 21.50 to the 10.70 target. A close above 21.48 would restart the move up.  Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish.

Daily – in the long trade from the 15.61 entry after the spike down to 14.00. The next target up is 20.84.  Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish. A close below 16.64 would signal a new move down.

S&P Futures

The ECB will announce their version of QE next week on Jan 22nd.   European stocks are already on the rise, the EC is down sharply with a 1.1410 target in sight.  The thinking is that the EC money will find its way into the stock markets including those US stocks with European exposure; that would include most all the large cap stocks in the S&P 500.

China announces their 4th Qtr GDP on Jan 20th.  With Europe in recession China’s growth rate becomes more important.

Monthly – Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish.
the next target up remains 2191.

Weekly – Trade pressures are up and volume is bullish.
the next target up is 2112. The week traded down thru the short entry but did not close below, so still long.

Daily – Down all week then rallied at the close on Friday. The 1977 target held support. the next target down is 1957 and the 200 day moving average. Trading pressures are down. Volume is bullish.

Need a close above 2028 to restart the move up.

US $$

USD (DX)_ Could trade the FOREX but the currency futures seem easier; and are traded on a regulated exchange. the Value of the contract is $1000 x the index (which is today 93.000).  The surprise decision by the Swiss National Bank to stop holding down their currency and therefore allow it to rise.And rise it did…

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