Author: Charlie

Oil & Gas

CRUDE_ Two contracts available one for 1000 and one for 500 barrels.  Traded thru the weekly 48.65 target down to the daily 44.80 target with a low of 44.70.

Weekly – Closed at 49.125 near the weekly 48.68 target. Expect consolidation here.
Trade pressures are down. volume is bullish.

Daily – Consolidating between the weekly and daily targets. Both have been reached. looking for the next entry, up or down.
Trade pressures are up, but volume is still bearish.

the next long entry is 49.18, very close.

NAT GAS_ A contract represent 10,000 MMBtu’s, so each point is worth $10,000. there is a mini contract also.

Weekly – Trade pressures are down. volume is bullish.
The next target down is 2.22.

Daily – Supported by the 2.79 target for 7 trading days, a small rally seems to have begun.
Trade pressures are up. Volume is bearish. so maybe just short covering.
Trade is long from the 3.00 entry with a 3.37 target.

Metals

COPPER_  Each contract represents 25,000 lbs, so a move of a penny is worth $250. A sharp drop down thru the weekly 2.64 target with a spike down to the daily 2.41 target, then rallied to close at the 2.64. China reports GDP on Jan 20th.  Copper is often viewed as an economic barometer.

Weekly – Trade pressures still down but the net volume now shows bullish after that rally of the lows.
the next target down is 2.32.

Daily – the 2.41 target was almost touched with the 2.42 low. So a 20 point spike down and a 20 point rally equals 40 points (pennies) in one day.
Trade pressures are now up. Volume is neutral for the day.
the trade is long from 2.52 with a 2.70 target.

GOLD_ It is a 100 oz. contract and the mini is a 33.2 troy oz contract. Viewed by some as a safe haven currency, others as a shiny rock.  Gold responds to currency dislocations, such as the Swiss Franc this week.

Weekly – The trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish for these last two weeks.
The long cycle won’t trigger a long entry until a close above 1426.

Daily – Long from the 1193 entry, traded to the first target last week and these last two days have taken gold to the 1276 target.
the next target up is 1344.

SILVER_  comes in a 5000 oz and a 1000 oz contract. Tracks gold, but more volatile.

Weekly – Trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.
the next long entry is 21.47.  the target down is still 10.70.

Daily – long from the 15.61 entry. the next target up is 18.22.
Trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.

S&P Futures

Earnings season starts today, so watch for market moving announcements.

Monthly – Trade pressures are up and volume is bullish.
the next target up is 2191.

Weekly – Trade pressures are up but volume is neutral.
Currently retracing after touching the 2088 target. the next target up is 2112.

Daily – traded down to the 80 day moving average last week. Then began a retracement up which took price thru the long entry of 2014. the target of 2062 was touched and today Monday a new short entry of 2037 has been triggered with a target of 1997 (which is again the 80 day moving average).

Trade pressures are slightly up but volume is bearish.

a close above today’s high of 2048 could restart the move up.

US $$

USD(DX)_ long the dollar since the 81.99 long entry.

Weekly – Trade pressures are up and volume is bullish.
the next target up is 94.66.

Daily – Trade pressures are down and volume is bearish.
the next target up is 96.04.

A close below 91.24 would signal lower

30-YR TBONDS_ always a safe haven. would expect Treasuries to react to inflows into the dollar and outflows from equities.

Weekly – Trade pressures are up and volume is bullish.
the next target up is 150-14.

Daily – Trade pressures are down but volume remains bullish.
in the short trade from 147-13 with a stop at the highs.

Oil & Gas

CRUDE_ is it oversupply which benefits the consumer, or lessening demand which signals economic slowdown?

weekly – Our first sell signal on the weekly occurred in late August at 92.00 and no stops have been triggered since then.
have broken thru the 48.60 weekly target signaling lower.
Trade pressures are down and volume is bearish.
There is a 38.68 target lower on the weekly.

Daily – the 44.87 target is next on the Daily. the intraday price is now 46.25.
Trade pressures are down and volume is bearish.

Need a close above 50.40 to signal a new long entry.

NAT GAS_ if you look at NatGas the cold weather increases demand and yet the price is still going down, so could argue that oversupply is the answer.

Weekly – Trade pressures are down and volume is bearish.
next target down is 2.22.

Daily – at the 2.79 target now.
trade pressures are neutral. Volume is bearish.
the next target down is 2.36.

A close above 3.00 would signal higher.

Metals

COPPER_  the metal of infrastructure and building. In a 4 year decline.

weekly – the 2.82 support has given way, next weekly target down is 2.60.
trade pressures are down. volume is bearish.

Daily – the same 2.82 target is on the daily and is now acting as resistance. However the daily has a 2.50 target.
the trade pressures are down. volume is bearish.

GOLD_ Two major legs down since the 2011 highs.  The final target of the second leg is acting as support at 1142.

Weekly – at the 1142 support. trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.

Daily – after the spike down to the 1129 low, gold has been consolidating with some small trades testing for a long entry.
Trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.
The trade is long from the 193 entry price. the next target up is 1235.

SILVER_ always a low volume futures contract, should be careful it is volatile.

Weekly – still consolidating around the 16.25 downside target.
Trade pressures are up. volume is bullish. The weekly long entry is 21.48.

Daily – after the spike low to 14.00 the pressures ahve turned up.
trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.
long from 15.61 with a target of 18.22.

S&P Futures

Monthly  – Trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.
the next target up is 2191.

Weekly – Trade pressures are up. volume is neutral.
The weekly highs have touched the 2088 target two weeks.
the next target up is 2122.  the next short entry is 2016.

Daily – Trade pressures are down. volume is bearish.
in the short trade from 2065. the next target down is 2028.
[Met the 2028, the next target down is 1977 and the 80 Day]

further support is the 80 day MA at 1990.
[Update 1/6: now at the 80 day]

a close above 2068 2017 would signal higher.

[Update 1/7: closed the futures @ 2025.
Long entry triggered. Volume indicates neutral pressure, so this may be short covering,
may have a small pullback first then thru again.

US $$

USD (DX)_  European economic worries and Russian adventurism is driving the flow of funds to the DX.
and once purchased those same dollars have to go somewhere.

Weekly – after consolidating around the 88.99 target, the subsequent breakout is taking the DX to the 94.68 target.
Trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.

Daily – approaching the 91.72 target.
trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.

a close below 90.79 would signal a short entry.

30YR T_BONDS_ reacting to the dollar.
Weekly –  trade pressures are up, but diverging. volume is neutral.
still in the weekly short trade until a close above the high.

Daily – touched the 146-18 long target on 12/16. now making another run at that same target.
trade pressures are up. volume is bullish and flashing a high volume signal.

142-05 will signal another short entry.

Oil & Gas

CRUDE_ Hard downward pressures.
Weekly – Trade pressures are down. volume is bearish.
Next target down is 48.60.

Daily – Trade pressures are down. Volume is bearish.
the next target down is 44.67.

A close above 56.52 is required for a new long entry.

NAT GAS_
Weekly –  Trade pressures are down. volume is bearish.
testing the 2012 pivot lows at 2.70.
next target down is 2.22

Daily – at the 2.79 extended target.
Trade pressures are neutral. volume is bullish.

need a close above 3.02 for a new log entry.

 

Metals

COPPER_  Weekly retesting of the 2.76 target as support.

Weekly – Trade pressures are down. volume is neutral.
2.64 is the next target down.

Daily – Trade pressures are up. volume remains bearish.
the 2.84 target is a consolidation area.

need a trade above 2.90 for a new long entry.

GOLD_ momentum seems to be turning up.

Weekly – the 1142 remains as support.
trade pressures are up. volume is neutral.

Daily – 1160 is the next downside target. 1200 is the next long entry.
trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.
if 1160 doesn’t hold, then 1112 is the likely target.

SILVER_ consolidating around the 15.66 support.

Weekly – the next target down is 10.70.
Trade pressures are up. volume is neutral.

Daily – at a pivot level of both a 15.61 long entry and a 15.52 short entry.
Trade pressures are down. volume is bearish.