Market Summary:

Copper in a correction down, look for a breakout of the bull flag. Gold basing and Silver breaks above the bull flag. GVX declining, allowing risk.

Crude rallied on Iranian news, but turning down at the weekend.  Natural Gas attempts a breakout but turns lower into the weekend.

The US 30yr Treasury rises as the 10yr reaches OB.
The 10yr yields rise to 4.37%.
The expected overbought level for the 10yr yield rises to 4.43%.

The US Dollar – attempted a rally, but turning lower.

_________________

S&P 500 Futures   #ESM26, #MESM26

Monthly –Monthly bar recovers and is making new ATH’s. Trade pressures remain up, but declining. Volumes closed the month of April as bullish.  The 7300 price is the adjusted high.  The next target up is 7374. A close below 6990 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar backtested the Oct 31 resistance line and moved higher.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish.  The next target up is 7374. A close below 7126 would confirm any new daily move lower.

Daily – Long.  Continues in the move up from the 6893 long entry on 4/13. Trade pressures remain up, declining. Volumes remain bullish.

The next target up is 7305, which is also above the OB level.  The expected overbought level rises to 7238.

A close below 7202 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 7068.

[OB/OS trend is rising.]
The VIX closes below 19 at 16.98 indicating market is investable. The Hedgeye.com VIX risk range is 16.34 -19.49. Buy the SPX dip at the VIX low RR and trim at the Top RR.

[5-1-26: At the OB level. Tighten stops. Raise the SL to 7233.]

[5-4-26: Long trade stopped out at 7233.]

__________________

Market Summary:

Copper in a correction down. Gold and Silver both decline forming a bull flag. GVX declining, allowing risk.

Crude rallied on Iranian news, but now turning lower.  Natural Gas now turns lower.

The US 30yr Treasury retreats after testing the downward sloping median line.
The 10yr yields rise to 4.30%.
The expected overbought level for the 10yr yield declines to 4.35%.

The US Dollar – continues the move down.

_________________

S&P 500 Futures   #ESM26, #MESM26

Monthly –Monthly bar recovers and is making new ATH’s. Trade pressures remain up, but declining. Volumes closed the month of March as bearish.  The 7200 price is the adjusted high.  The next target up is 7258. A close below 6889 would signal a failure of the move up.

Weekly – The weekly bar breaks above the Oct 31 resistance line.  Trade pressures are in the neutral zone. Volumes remain bullish.  Moving higher off the prior week’s 6863 entry. The next target up is 7374. A close below 7025 would confirm any new daily move lower.

Daily – Long.  In the move up from the 6893 long entry on 4/13. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes remain bullish.

The next target up is 7301, which is also above the OB level.  The expected overbought level rises to 7218.

A close below 7027 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 6875.

[OB/OS trend is rising.]
The VIX closes below 19 indicating market is investable.

[4-24-26: Hold the SL at 7099. This is the upward sloping trend line acting as a tight stop to reflect the nearby OB.]

[4-30-26: Raise the SL to 7109.]

__________________

Market Summary:

Copper stopped out for a gain. Gold and Silver trade pressures are still rising. GVX declining, allowing risk.

Crude continues lower.  Natural Gas in channel now with a positive bias.

The US 30yr Treasury testing the downward sloping median line.
The 10yr yields decline to 4.24%.  The expected overbought level for the 10yr yield declines to 4.38%.

The US Dollar – rallies inside the move down.

_________________

S&P 500 Futures   #ESM26, #MESM26

Monthly –Monthly bar recovers and is making new ATH’s. Trade pressures remain up, but declining. Volumes closed the month of March as bearish.  The 7185 price remains the adjusted high.  The next target up is 7258. A close below 6875 would signal a failure of the move up.

Weekly – The weekly bar breaks above the Jan 30 downtrend line.  Trade pressures rise into the neutral zone. Volumes remain bullish.  Moving higher off the 6863 entry, the next target up is 7374. A close below 6968 would confirm any new daily move lower.

Daily – Long.  In the move up from the 6467 long entry on 3/31. Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish.

The next target up is 7326, which is weekly resistance and is also above the OB level.  The expected overbought level rises to 7149.

A close below 7099 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 6752.

[OB/OS trend is rising.]
The VIX closes below 19 indicating market is investable.

[4-18-26: Raise the SL at 7099.]

__________________

Market Summary:

Copper new long at 5.76. Gold and Silver trade pressures are rising. GVX declining, allowing risk.

Crude consolidating after 20 dollar move down.  Natural Gas in channel with a negative bias.

The US 30yr Treasury rally after testing the lower boundary of the channel.
The 10yr yields decline to 4.30%.  The expected overbought level for the 10yr yield declines to 4.45%.

The US Dollar – new down move.

_________________

S&P 500 Futures   #ESM26

Monthly –Monthly bar recovers and is back above the October ’22 Median line. Trade pressures remain up, but declining. Volumes closed the month of March as bearish.  The 7092 price remains the adjusted high.  The close back above the 6782 signals higher. A close below 6507 would signal a failure of the move up.

Weekly – The weekly bar breaks above the Feb 27 downtrend line.  Trade pressures remain down, but rising. Volumes are bullish.  A close above 6863 would signal higher. A close below 6476 would confirm any new daily move lower.

Daily – Long.  In the move up from the 6467 long entry on 3/31. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 6895, which is resistance and is also above the OB level.  The expected overbought level rises to 6888.

A close below 6831 would signal lower. The expected oversold level declines to 6340.

[OB/OS trend is widening.]
The VIX closes near 19 indicating market is investible and choppy.

[4-15-26: Set SL at 6976.]

__________________

Market Summary:

Copper breakout failed, in consolidation at the 200 day MA support. Gold and Silver sell off, but now trade pressures are rising. GVX rising, creating risk.

Crude settling into a much higher range 86-102.  Natural Gas in channel with a positive bias.

The US 30yr Treasury selling off hard
The 10yr yields rally to 4.44%.  The expected overbought level for the 10yr yield rises to 4.46%.

The US Dollar – consolidating at 99.96, testing the upper parallel boundary.

_________________

S&P 500 Futures   #ESM26

Monthly –Monthly bar drops thru the October ’22 Median line. Trade pressures remain up, but declining. Volumes closed the month of February as bullish, but clearly bearish now.  The 7092 price remains the adjusted high.  The close below 6782 confirmed the weekly move lower. 6279 is the next target down. A close back above 6782 would signal higher.

Weekly – The weekly bar breaks the October ’23 Median Line support.  Trade pressures remain down. Volumes remain bearish. A close below 6742 confirmed the daily move lower. The next target lower is 6226. A close above 6668 would signal higher.

Daily – Flat.  Trade pressures are down. Volumes are again bearish.

At the 6399 target. The next target down is 6291. The expected oversold level declines to 6426.

A close above 6497 would signal higher (bear market rally back to the 200 day MA?). The expected overbought level declines to 6701.

[OB/OS trend is declining.]
The VIX is rising above the Chop Range; placing hedges forces the market maker to do the opposite.

[3-27-26: VIX >29 in the red zone.]

__________________

Market Summary:

Copper in the move down, at 200 day MA support. Gold and Silver sell off, still possible liquidity source. GVX rising in chop zone.

Crude settling into a much higher range 86-102.  Natural Gas in chop with a neg bias.

The US 30yr Treasury selling off.
The 10yr yields rally to 4.39%.  The expected overbought level for the 10yr yield rises to 4.33%.

The US Dollar – consolidating at 99.50, testing the upper parallel boundary.

_________________

S&P 500 Futures   #ESM26

Monthly –Monthly bar drops to the October ’22 Median line. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of February as bullish.  The 7092 price remains the adjusted high.  The close below 6782 confirmed the weekly move lower. 6434 is the next target down. A close back above 6782 would signal higher.

Weekly – The weekly bar breaks the October ’23 Median Line support.  Trade pressures remain down. Volumes remain bearish. A close below 6742 does confirm the daily move lower. The next target lower is 6392. A close above 6675 would signal higher.

Daily – Flat.  Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 6399.  The expected oversold level declines to 6554.

A close above 6721 would signal higher. The expected overbought level declines to 6786.

[OB/OS trend is declining.]
The VIX is rising in the Chop Range; expect rapid price moves in either direction.

[3-25-26: VIX near the top of the Chop range. Declining.]

__________________

Market Summary:

Copper in the move down. Gold and Silver sell off, possible liquidity source. GVX holding in chop.

Crude moves dramatically higher on the attack, but at oversold levels.  Natural Gas breaks down.

The US 30yr Treasury selling off.
The 10yr yields rally to 4.28%.  The expected overbought level for the 10yr yield rises to 4.30%.

The US Dollar – moving higher, breaks above the upper channel boundary.

_________________

S&P 500 Futures   #ESM26

Monthly –Monthly bar still in the center of the range. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of February as neutral.  The 7043 price remains the adjusted high.  6384 is the next target down.
The close below 6782 confirmed the weekly move lower. A close back above 6782 would signal higher.

Weekly – The weekly bar now at 6641, the October ’23 Median Line support.  Trade pressures remain down. Volumes remain bearish. A close below 6742 does confirm the daily move lower. The next target lower is 6392. A close above 6862 would signal higher.

Daily – Flat.  Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 6629.  The expected oversold level declines to 6633.

A close above 6786 would signal higher. The expected overbought level declines to 6841.

[OB/OS trend is declining.]
The VIX is back into the Chop Range; expect rapid price moves in either direction.

[3-17-26: Trading above new long entry, use pullback <6750 to enter.]

__________________

Market Summary:

Copper a new long entry. Gold and Silver both in move up but GVX in chop.

Crude needs a pull back to the trendline to re-enter long.  Natural Gas continues the move down.

The US 30yr Treasury in a new move up. Looking for a pullback to re-enter long.
The 10yr yields at 3.97%.  The expected oversold level for the 10yr yield declines to 3.97%.

The US Dollar – moving higher, but finding continued resistance at the 200 day MA. The 10yr yield at the OS level may  restrain the USD.

[2-28-26: Saturday night (CST) bombing of Iran will affect the markets. Equities down, metals up. $USD was waiting for something these last few days.]

_________________

S&P 500 Futures   #ESH26

Monthly –Monthly bar still in the center of the range. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of February as neutral.  The 7043 price remains the adjusted high.  7208 is the next target up. A close below 6732 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar continues to respect the Aug 2025 support trendline.  Trade pressures remain down. Volumes remain bearish.  Price below the prior high pivot of 7043. The support trendline is at 6794. A close below 6692 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat. The VIX remains in the Chop Range; but declining. Could buy the pullback to 6844. Trade pressures are down. Volumes remain neutral.

A close above 6935 would signal higher. The expected overbought level declines to 6961.

A close below 6822 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 6801.

[OB/OS trend is narrowing.] Expect less volatility.

[2-28-26: Watch the behavior of the ES at the rising OS sold levels.]

__________________