Market Summary:

Copper breaks out to OB.  Gold breaks down. Silver in correction.

Crude short worked, now in consolidation at 200 Day MA.  Natural Gas shorts are covering.

The US 30yr Treasury expect yields lower, The CPI on July 17th is projected higher. The 10yr yields now in the 4.20’s.

The US Dollar attempt to rally failed. Looks lower still.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESU25

Monthly –Monthly bar above prior month high in rally  mode. Trade pressures remain in the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of June as neutral; againon lower volumes.  The 6285 price remains the adjusted high. The next target up is 6246. A close below 5865 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar remains above the October median line, which is acting as support.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes are now bullish.  The next target up is a nearby 6248.  A close below 5908 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Long. In the move up from 6050 on 6/23.   Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 6241. Very OB.  The expected overbought level rises to 6174.

A close below 6070 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 5960.

[Set the SL at 6118.]

[7-1-25: Raise the SL to 6222.]

[7-3-25: Raise the SL to 6247.]

[7-7-25: Sell at 6267.]

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Market Summary:

Copper move up is muted.  Gold in another bull flag; in negative correlation with the USD. Silver spiked on war news, then gives it all back.

Crude moved sharply higher but now prepping for a short.  Natural Gas now short.

The US 30yr Treasury expect yields lower. The 10yr yields now in the 4.30’s.

The US Dollar now long off the low pivot.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESU25

Monthly –Monthly bar above prior month month high but still selling off. Trade pressures remain in the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of May as neutral; and on lower volumes.  The 6285 price remains the adjusted high. The next target up is 6246. A close below 5850 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar remains above the October median line which is acting as support.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain are now neutral.  The next target up is 6248.  A close below 5897 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat.  Stopped out of the short trade for a gain.   Trade pressures are down but rising.  Volumes remain bearish.

This move down has created yet another lower high. The next target down is 5996. The expected oversold level rises to 5935.

A close above 6050 would signal higher. The next target up is 6090. The expected overbought level rises to 6068.

In the rising price channel between 5935 and 6068.
VIX is at 20.6, also in a channel between 15 and 22 (= Chop). Any break above 22 is a warning signal for the equity markets.

But, for now, can buy equities with VIX dips back to 15. Rallies above 22.

[6-23-25: The break above 6050 signaled higher. The SL is now 6134.]

[6-26-25: Now testing the upper channel resistance at 6165. VIX is at 16.7, its lower bound.]

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Market Summary:

Copper OS and in new move up.  Gold breaks out of the new bull flag. Silver consolidating after the move higher.

Crude moves sharply hoigher on the Iran=Israeli conflict.  Natural Gas now consolidating.

The US 30yr Treasury expect yields lower. The 10yr yields now in the 4.40’s.

The US Dollar still basing near two year lows.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESU25 (Contract rolls Monday)

Monthly –Monthly bar above prior month month high but selling off. Trade pressures remain in the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of May as neutral; on lower volumes.  The 6233 price remains the adjusted high. The next target up remains 6196. A close below 5811 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar is above the October median line which is acting as support for now.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish.  The next target up is 6193.  A close below 5714 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat.  Stopped out of the long trade. The close below 6050 has signal lower.  (Look for some price improvement to enter short.)  Trade pressures are up, but have turned down hard, to near the neutral zone. Volumes finished the week as bearish.

This move down has created a second lower high and a new 2hr downtrend. The next target down is 5998. The expected oversold level rises to 5890.

A close above 6082 would signal higher. The next target up is 6092. The expected overbought level rises to 6040.

[Any new short will have a SL of 6082.]

[6-16-25: A retracement pivot was created, then the Monday trade down thru 6072 was the short entry. SL at 3082 remains.]

[6-19-25: Lower SL to 6027. A close above 6073 would signal higher.]

[6-20-25: Stopped out at 6027. Flat.]

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Market Summary:

Copper rallied to OB.  Gold showing lower in a bear flag. Silver moves sharply higher.

Crude grinding higher.  Natural Gas now moving sideways in a wide range – choppy.

The US 30yr Treasury long stopped out. The 10yr yields remain in the 4.50’s.

The US Dollar is basing near two year lows.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESM25

Monthly –Monthly bar continues the move up past prior month high. Trade pressures remain in the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of May as neutral; on lower volumes.  The 6233 price remains the adjusted high. The next target up remains 6196. A close below 5802 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar is above the October median line which is acting as support for now.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish but declining.  The next target up is 6197.  A close below 5694 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Long.  In the new move up from 5972 on 6/6. Trade pressures are up. Volumes finished the week as bullish.

The next target up is 6189 . The expected overbought level rises to 6025.

A close below 5770 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 5806.

[6-7-25: Set the SL at 5886.]

[6-9-25: Raise the SL to 5979.]

[6-11-25: Raise the SL to 6013.] [stopped out on the pm session.]

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Market Summary:

Copper is retracing the move up to resistance.  Gold showing successive lower highs. Silver in second bull flag.

Crudebreaks out of bullflag once again.  Natural Gas now short.

The US 30yr Treasury is a new long. The 10yr yields return to the 4.50’s.

The US Dollar is at support.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESM25

Monthly –Monthly bar closes well above the prior month high. Trade pressures remain in the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of May as neutral; on lower volumes.  The 6233 price remains the adjusted high. The next target up remains 6196. A close below 5770 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar is above the October median line which is acting as support for now.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish.  The next target up is 6197.  A close below 5677 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat.  In the retracement move down and touched the 61% target of 5861 on 5/30, which could act as support. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes again choppy and finished the week as bearish.

The next target down is 5771. The expected oversold level rises to 5760.

A close above 5972 would signal higher. The expected overbought level rises to 6013.

[6-6-25: New Long entry at 5972. SL is 5929.]

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Market Summary:

Copper had sharp rally to resisitance.  Gold rallies to the April trendline. Silver breaks out of bull flag.

Crudebreaks out of bullflag.  Natural Gas remains in the pullback.

The US 30yr Treasury is again lower. The 10yr yields rise to the 4.50’s.

The US Dollar is a short.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESM25

Monthly –Monthly bar closes off the rally highs. Trade pressures remain in the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of April as bullish.  The 6233 price remains the adjusted high. The next target up is 6196. A close below 5754 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar is above the October median line, but retracing.  Trade pressures rising to the neutral zone. Volumes remain bullish.  The next target up is 6200. A close below 5662 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Long.  In the move up from 5855 on 5/26. Trade pressures are down but rising, but declining. Volumes choppy but finished the week as bullish.

A close above 5855 signaled higher. The next target up is 5976. The expected overbought level rises to 6001.

A close below 5857 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 5702.

[5-26-25: Stopped out in the Memorial Day trading at 5849. Now a long trade after the bull flag breakout on the 120 min chart at 5855.]

[5-27-25: Set the SL at the BE, 5855.][Raise the SL to 5902.]

[5-28-25: Rasie the SL to 5912.]

[5-29-25: %912 stop triggers sale.]

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Market Summary:

Copper holding above the 200 day MA.  Gold crashes. Silver is still consolidating at the 200 day MA.

Crude meets resisitance, retraces.  Natural Gas pulls back.

The US 30yr Treasury is lower, short covering. The 10yr yields rise to the 4.40’s.

The US Dollar is a long.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESM25

Monthly –Monthly bar continues to rally. closing well above the prior month high. Trade pressures remain in the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of April as bullish.  The 6283 price remains the adjusted high. The next target up is 6196. A close below 5769 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar moves higher and now breaks above the October median line.  Trade pressures remain down, but rising. Volumes are bullish.  The next target up is 6407. A close below 5646 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Long.  In a break out move up from 5815 on 5/12. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 6051, with resistance at 5991. The expected overbought level rises to 5998.

A close below 5909 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 5609.

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Market Summary:

Copper moving down with the equity markets.  Gold forms a lower high. Silver is consolidating at the 200 day MA.

Crude is a long, OB.  Natural Gas is a long, also OB.

The US 30yr Treasury is lower, needs a breakout. The 10yr yields down to the 4.30’s.

The US Dollar is at a long entry.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESM25

Monthly –Monthly bar continues to rally. closes above the prior month high. Trade pressures remain in the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of April as bullish.  The 6283 price remains the adjusted high. The next target up is 5935. A close below 5586 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar moves higher and again touches the October median line.  Trade pressures remain down, turning up. Volumes are bullish.  The next target up is 5911. A close below 5410 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Long. Flat; stopped out of the 5319 long trade on 5/7.  Trade pressures are up; turning down.  Volumes are bearish.

The next target up remains 5761, but near the OB levels. The expected overbought level rises to 5724.

A close below 5630 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 5466.

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Market Summary:

Copper moving down.  Gold is basing. Silver is retracing the move up.

Crude is a short.  Natural Gas is a long.

The US 30yr Treasury is retracing the recent move up. The 10yr yields down to the 4.20’s.

The US Dollar is finding some support and near a long entry.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESM25

Monthly –Monthly bar continues to rally. now back above 5700. 4832 was the low of the sell-off. Trade pressures are still in the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of April as bullish.  The 6283 price remains the adjusted high. The close above 5352 confirmed the weekly move higher.

Weekly – The weekly bar moves higher and touches the October median line.  Trade pressures remain down, turning up. Volumes are bullish.  The nest target up is 5911. A close below 5394 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Long. In the new move up from 5319 on 4/23.  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain bullish.

The next target up is 5761. Thru the resistance at 5615. The expected overbought level rises to 5711.

A close below 5546 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 5405.

[4-26-25: Set the SL at 5468.]

[5-2-25: Raise the SL to 5546.]

[5-7-25: Raise the SL to 5600.] [5-7-25: stopped out at 5600.]

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