Market Summary:

Copper still in downtrend, may have a small rally.  Gold and Silver rally fails and both breakdown.

Crude continues the move higher. Natural Gas meets resistance and breaks lower.

The US 30yr Treasury – A break above the trend line allows for a long trade, tight stops.
The 10yr yield at 4.98%. The expected overbought level for the 10yr yield at 5.29%.

The US Dollar – The USD in a correction, but Long trade is intact.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESZ26, #MESZ26

Monthly –Monthly bar continues lower than the prior month. Trade pressures remain up,  Volumes closed the month of September as bullish.  The 7906 price remains the high.  The next target up is 8752.  A close below 7575 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar is below the prior week’s close and breaks trend line support.  Trade pressures down into the neutral zone, and declining. Volumes are now bearish and lower than usual.  The next target down is the 7536. A close above 7739 will confirmed any daily move higher.

Daily – Short.  Tried to move up mid week, but failed. The move down below trend takes price back into the downward channel. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 7550. The expected oversold level declines to 7601.

A close above 7731 would signal higher. The expected overbought level declines to 7818,

[OB/OS channel is declining.]
The VIX closes > 19, at 19.22 indicating market moving into the chop area.
The Hedgeye.com VIX risk range is 15.67-20.98.
The HE rising risk range suggests higher VIX.

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Market Summary:

Copper retests the rising support and fails.  Gold now in a sideways channel between 4100 and 4200.  Silver rally fails and tests a warning line at 55.50.

Crude breaks out above 91. Natural Gas move up van’t break overhead resistance.

The US 30yr Treasury – A break above the trend line allows for a long trade, tight stops.
The 10yr yield at 5.15%. The expected overbought level for the 10yr yield at 5.36%.

The US Dollar – The USD moves above the OB level. Lower highs signal a correction, but Long trade is intact.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESZ26, #MESZ26

Monthly –Monthly bar falls below the prior month. Trade pressures remain up,  Volumes closed the month of September as bullish.  The 7906 price remains the high.  The next target up is 8752.  A close below 7575 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar is below the prior week’s close.  Trade pressures remain up, but declining. Volumes are now neutral and lower than usual.  The next target down is the 7567 support level. The close below 7721 has confirmed the daily move lower.

Daily – Short.  The lower highs warned of a move down, which was confirmed after the trend break at 7814. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 7573. The expected oversold level rises to 7701.

A close above 7732 would signal higher. The expected overbought level rises to 7850,

[OB/OS channel is rising.]  The rising OB/OS channel suggests any move down may be limited.
The VIX closes > 19, at 19.9 indicating market moving into the chop area.
The Hedgeye.com VIX risk range is 14.84 – 17.70.

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Market Summary:

Copper retests the rising support.  Gold rallies from lower to the trend line; resistance overhead. Silver rally attempt must break 61.50.

Crude still in a bear flag. Natural Gas move up has successful break above trend; resistance overhead.

The US 30yr Treasury – More oversold. A break above the trend line allows for a long countertrend trade, tight stops.
The 10yr yield at 5.24%. The expected overbought level for the 10yr yield at 5.35%.

The US Dollar – The USD moves above the OB level. Showing lower highs.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESZ26, #MESZ26

Monthly –Monthly bar above the prior month. Trade pressures remain up,  Volumes closed the month of September as bullish.  The 7906 price remains the high.  The next target up is 8752.  A close below 7575 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar is above the prior week’s close.  Trade pressures remain up, but declining. Volumes are now neutral and lower than usual.  The next target down is the 7578 support level. A close below 7721 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Long.  The divergence signal in the OB/OS channel resulted in a break above the 7805 resistance line on 10/5; trades to 7897, a lower high. Then two days of backtest to the 7805 entry point. Now, in a move up to the resistance at 7872. Trade pressures are up, but declining,  Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 7907 which is also a resistance area. Pay attention to the lower high. The expected overbought level rises to 7850,

A close below the 7814 trend line would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 7652.

[OB/OS channel is rising.]
The VIX closes below 19, at 14.8 indicating market remains investable.
The Hedgeye.com VIX risk range is 14.58 – 16.71.

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Market Summary:

Copper breaks down after the rally.  Gold continues lower. Silver fails at each rally attempt.

Crude watching the 88 support level. Natural Gas move up fails, and is below the  200 day MA.

The US 30yr Treasury – Oversold. A break above the downward channel boundary continues to be the objective, but no relief as the overbought levels continue to rise.
The 10yr yield at 5.27%. The expected overbought level for the 10yr yield at 5.40%.

The US Dollar – The USD moves even higher into OB.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESZ26, #MESZ26

Monthly –Monthly bar level with the prior month. Trade pressures remain up,  Volumes closed the month of September as bullish.  The 7906 price remains the high.  The next target up is 8752.  A close below 7575 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar is below the prior week’s close.  Trade pressures remain up, but declining. Volumes are now bearish.  The next target down is the 7600 support level. A close below 7657 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat.  At the 7805 resistance line, lower highs Trade pressures are up,  Volumes are bullish.

A close above 7805 would confirm signal higher to 7907. The expected overbought level declines to 7789 (likely resistance),

A close below 7728 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 7605. (important divergence)

[OB/OS channel is narrowing.]
The VIX closes below 19, at 15.3 indicating market remains investable.
The Hedgeye.com VIX risk range is 14.00 – 17.11.

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Market Summary:

Copper breaks above the bull flag.  Gold can’t break out. Silver basing again at lower levels.

Crude continues lower into the 80’s then moves up into the weekend. Natural Gas breaks up and over the 200 day MA.

The US 30yr Treasury – Oversold. A break above the downward channel boundary continues to be the objective,
The 10yr yield at 5.18%. The expected overbought level for the 10yr yield at 5.21%.

The US Dollar – The USD moves higher into OB.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESZ26, #MESZ26

Monthly –Monthly bar above the prior month. Trade pressures remain up,  Volumes closed the month of August as bullish.  The 7906 price remains the high.  The next target up is 8752.  A close below 7575 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar above the prior week’s close.  Trade pressures remain up, but declining. Volumes are now neutral.  The next target down is the 7600 support level. A close below 7600 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat.  5th attempt breaks out at 7740 on 9/20. Rallies to 7848 and then gives it all back. Now moving up to retest those highs. Trade pressures are down,  Volumes are bullish.

A close above 7815 would confirm signal higher to 7882. The expected overbought level rises to 7797,

A close below 7782 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 7546.

[OB/OS channel is rising.]
The VIX closes below 19, at 14.8 indicating market remains investable.
The Hedgeye.com VIX risk range is 14.21 – 17.84.

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Market Summary:

Copper rallies to lower high.  Gold and Silver are rising with higher lows.

Crude sells off into the weekend. Natural Gas moves up slowly.

The US 30yr Treasury – Oversold. A break above the downward channel boundary remains the objective,
The 10yr yield at 4.93%. The expected overbought level for the 10yr yield at 5.12%.

The US Dollar – The USD moves higher after FED raises rates.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESZ26, #MESZ26  (DEC26 contract change)

Monthly –Monthly bar remains below the prior month. Trade pressures remain up,  Volumes closed the month of August as bullish.  The 7906 price remains the high.  The next target up is 8752.  A close below 7575 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar again below the prior week’s close.  Trade pressures remain up, but declining. Volumes remain bullish.  The next target down is the 7600 support level. A close below 7600 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat.  4th rally to the upper median parallel attempted to break out; it failed. Now trying one more time to break above 7793. Trade pressures are up,  Volumes are neutral.

The next target down is 7506. The expected oversold level declines to 7513.

A close above 7736 would confirm signal higher to 7793. The expected overbought level declines to 7727, (Resistance).

[OB/OS channel is declining.]
The VIX closes below 19, at 14.8 indicating market remains investable.
The Hedgeye.com VIX risk range is 14.32 – 18.64.

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Market Summary:

Copper at OS support.  Gold and Silver in consolidation.

Crude moves higher on Yemeni threats of red sea transit closure. Natural Gas moves up slowly.

The US 30yr Treasury – Oversold. A break above the downward channel boundary remains the objective,
The 10yr yield at 4.97%. The expected overbought level for the 10yr yield at 4.98%.

The US Dollar – The USD a new short entry. War$’s + rising crude + rising interst rates + rising inflation

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESZ26, #MESZ26  (DEC26 contract change)

Monthly –Monthly bar now below the prior month. Trade pressures remain up,  Volumes closed the month of August as bullish.  The 7906 price is the new high.  The next target up is 8752.  A close below 7575 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar below the prior week’s close.  Trade pressures remain up, but declining. Volumes are now bullish.  The next target down is 7615. A close below 7615 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat.  4th rally to the upper median parallel in attempt to break out. Trade pressures are down, but rising,  Volumes are bullish.

The next target down is 7609. The expected oversold level declines to 7565.

A close above 7743 would confirm signal higher to 7824. 9/13, testing this resistance again. The expected overbought level declines to 7730.

[OB/OS channel is declining.]
The VIX closes below 19, at 15.80 indicating market remains investable.
The Hedgeye.com VIX risk range is 14.33 – 18.77.

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Market Summary:

Copper at resistance, In a narrow range, readying for up or down.  Gold and Silver moves down to consolidation area.

Crude moves up off retest of breakout levels. Natural Gas moves up slowly.

The US 30yr Treasury – A break above the downward channel boundary remains the objective,
The 10yr yield at 4.78%. The expected overbought level for the 10yr yield at 4.84%.

The US Dollar – The USD a new short entry. Treasury actions?

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESU26, #MESU26

Monthly –Monthly bar close remains above prior month. Trade pressures remain up,  Volumes closed the month of August as bullish.  The 7838 price is the new high.  The next target up is 8684.  A close below 7507 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar at the prior week’s close.  Trade pressures remain up, but declining. Volumes are now bullish.  The next target down is 7667. A close below 7590 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat.  Another rally to the upper median parallel in attempt to break out. This is also another potential lower high. Trade pressures are up,  Volumes remain bearish.

A close above 7764 would signal higher to 7838. Testing this resistance now. The expected overbought level declines to 7781.

The next target down remains 7638. The expected oversold level rises to 7652.

[OB/OS channel is narrowing.]
The VIX closes below 19, at 14.53 indicating market remains investable.
The Hedgeye.com VIX risk range is 13.75 – 16.33.

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Market Summary:

Copper in a pullback after a run to 66.84. Gold and Silver huge rally, now followed by a sharp drop..

Crude breaks out and now retesting the breakout area. Natural Gas continues basing.

The US 30yr Treasury rises to test the cannel boundary, The 10yr yield at 4.72%.
The expected overbought level for the 10yr yield at 4.76%.

The US Dollar – The USD a new long entry.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESU26, #MESU26

Monthly –Monthly bar new high and the close remains above prior month. Trade pressures remain up,  Volumes closed the month of July as bullish.  The 7838 price is the new high.  The next target up is 8684.  A close below 7507 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar retraces sme of the selloff.  Trade pressures remain up, but declining. Volumes remain neutral.  The next target down is 7667. A close below the 7590 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat.  A rally to the upper median line followed by a another selloff; establishes a lower high. Trade pressures are up,  Volumes remain bearish.

The next target down remains 7638. The expected oversold level rises to 7620.

A close above 7782 would signal higher. The expected overbought level declines to 7788.

[OB/OS channel is widening.]
The VIX closes below 19, at 14.56 indicating market remains investable.
The Hedgeye.com VIX risk range is 14.26 – 16.47.

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