Market Summary:

Copper new long at 5.76. Gold and Silver trade pressures are rising. GVX declining, allowing risk.

Crude consolidating after 20 dollar move down.  Natural Gas in channel with a negative bias.

The US 30yr Treasury rally after testing the lower boundary of the channel.
The 10yr yields decline to 4.30%.  The expected overbought level for the 10yr yield declines to 4.45%.

The US Dollar – new down move.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESM26

Monthly –Monthly bar recovers and is back above the October ’22 Median line. Trade pressures remain up, but declining. Volumes closed the month of March as bearish.  The 7092 price remains the adjusted high.  The close back above the 6782 signals higher. A close below 6507 would signal a failure of the move up.

Weekly – The weekly bar breaks above the Feb 27 downtrend line.  Trade pressures remain down, but rising. Volumes are bullish.  A close above 6863 would signal higher. A close below 6476 would confirm any new daily move lower.

Daily – Long.  In the move up from the 6467 long entry on 3/31. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 6895, which is resistance and is also above the OB level.  The expected overbought level rises to 6888.

A close below 6831 would signal lower. The expected oversold level declines to 6340.

[OB/OS trend is widening.]
The VIX closes near 19 indicating market is investible and choppy.

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Market Summary:

Copper breakout failed, in consolidation at the 200 day MA support. Gold and Silver sell off, but now trade pressures are rising. GVX rising, creating risk.

Crude settling into a much higher range 86-102.  Natural Gas in channel with a positive bias.

The US 30yr Treasury selling off hard
The 10yr yields rally to 4.44%.  The expected overbought level for the 10yr yield rises to 4.46%.

The US Dollar – consolidating at 99.96, testing the upper parallel boundary.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESM26

Monthly –Monthly bar drops thru the October ’22 Median line. Trade pressures remain up, but declining. Volumes closed the month of February as bullish, but clearly bearish now.  The 7092 price remains the adjusted high.  The close below 6782 confirmed the weekly move lower. 6279 is the next target down. A close back above 6782 would signal higher.

Weekly – The weekly bar breaks the October ’23 Median Line support.  Trade pressures remain down. Volumes remain bearish. A close below 6742 confirmed the daily move lower. The next target lower is 6226. A close above 6668 would signal higher.

Daily – Flat.  Trade pressures are down. Volumes are again bearish.

At the 6399 target. The next target down is 6291. The expected oversold level declines to 6426.

A close above 6497 would signal higher (bear market rally back to the 200 day MA?). The expected overbought level declines to 6701.

[OB/OS trend is declining.]
The VIX is rising above the Chop Range; placing hedges forces the market maker to do the opposite.

[3-27-26: VIX >29 in the red zone.]

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Market Summary:

Copper in the move down, at 200 day MA support. Gold and Silver sell off, still possible liquidity source. GVX rising in chop zone.

Crude settling into a much higher range 86-102.  Natural Gas in chop with a neg bias.

The US 30yr Treasury selling off.
The 10yr yields rally to 4.39%.  The expected overbought level for the 10yr yield rises to 4.33%.

The US Dollar – consolidating at 99.50, testing the upper parallel boundary.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESM26

Monthly –Monthly bar drops to the October ’22 Median line. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of February as bullish.  The 7092 price remains the adjusted high.  The close below 6782 confirmed the weekly move lower. 6434 is the next target down. A close back above 6782 would signal higher.

Weekly – The weekly bar breaks the October ’23 Median Line support.  Trade pressures remain down. Volumes remain bearish. A close below 6742 does confirm the daily move lower. The next target lower is 6392. A close above 6675 would signal higher.

Daily – Flat.  Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 6399.  The expected oversold level declines to 6554.

A close above 6721 would signal higher. The expected overbought level declines to 6786.

[OB/OS trend is declining.]
The VIX is rising in the Chop Range; expect rapid price moves in either direction.

[3-25-26: VIX near the top of the Chop range. Declining.]

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Market Summary:

Copper in the move down. Gold and Silver sell off, possible liquidity source. GVX holding in chop.

Crude moves dramatically higher on the attack, but at oversold levels.  Natural Gas breaks down.

The US 30yr Treasury selling off.
The 10yr yields rally to 4.28%.  The expected overbought level for the 10yr yield rises to 4.30%.

The US Dollar – moving higher, breaks above the upper channel boundary.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESM26

Monthly –Monthly bar still in the center of the range. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of February as neutral.  The 7043 price remains the adjusted high.  6384 is the next target down.
The close below 6782 confirmed the weekly move lower. A close back above 6782 would signal higher.

Weekly – The weekly bar now at 6641, the October ’23 Median Line support.  Trade pressures remain down. Volumes remain bearish. A close below 6742 does confirm the daily move lower. The next target lower is 6392. A close above 6862 would signal higher.

Daily – Flat.  Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 6629.  The expected oversold level declines to 6633.

A close above 6786 would signal higher. The expected overbought level declines to 6841.

[OB/OS trend is declining.]
The VIX is back into the Chop Range; expect rapid price moves in either direction.

[3-17-26: Trading above new long entry, use pullback <6750 to enter.]

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Market Summary:

Copper a new long entry. Gold and Silver both in move up but GVX in chop.

Crude needs a pull back to the trendline to re-enter long.  Natural Gas continues the move down.

The US 30yr Treasury in a new move up. Looking for a pullback to re-enter long.
The 10yr yields at 3.97%.  The expected oversold level for the 10yr yield declines to 3.97%.

The US Dollar – moving higher, but finding continued resistance at the 200 day MA. The 10yr yield at the OS level may  restrain the USD.

[2-28-26: Saturday night (CST) bombing of Iran will affect the markets. Equities down, metals up. $USD was waiting for something these last few days.]

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESH26

Monthly –Monthly bar still in the center of the range. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of February as neutral.  The 7043 price remains the adjusted high.  7208 is the next target up. A close below 6732 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar continues to respect the Aug 2025 support trendline.  Trade pressures remain down. Volumes remain bearish.  Price below the prior high pivot of 7043. The support trendline is at 6794. A close below 6692 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat. The VIX remains in the Chop Range; but declining. Could buy the pullback to 6844. Trade pressures are down. Volumes remain neutral.

A close above 6935 would signal higher. The expected overbought level declines to 6961.

A close below 6822 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 6801.

[OB/OS trend is narrowing.] Expect less volatility.

[2-28-26: Watch the behavior of the ES at the rising OS sold levels.]

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Market Summary:

Copper just a tick away from a new long entry. Gold and Sliver both new longs.

Crude needs a pull back to the trendline to re-enter long.  Natural Gas continues the move down. Now in a small bull flag.

The US 30yr Treasury move up stopped out. Looking for a pullback to re-enter long..
The 10yr yields at 4.08%.  The expected oversold level for the 10yr yield declines to 4.00%

The US Dollar – moving higher but finding continued resistance at the 200 day MA.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESH26

Monthly –Monthly bar holds in the center of the range. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of January as bullish.  The 7043 price remains the adjusted high.  7208 is the next target up. A close below 6732 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar moves up off the 6774 support trendline.  Trade pressures remain down. Volumes remain bearish.  Price below the prior high pivot of 7043. The support trendline is at 6774. A close below 6692 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat. The VIX is in the Chop Range. Buy the pullback to 6888. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are neutral.

A close above 6910 would signal higher. The expected overbought level declines to 6986.

A close below 6881 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 6784.

[OB/OS trend is narrowing.] Expect less volatility.

[2-21-26: Set the SL at 6853. TP at 7000.]

[2-24-26: Long at 6888 from 2/24. Set the SL at 6875. TP at 6969.]

[2-25-26: Flat. Profit Stop taken at 6969.]

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Market Summary:

Copper near new long entry. Gold in consolidation. Silver fails the long entry, pulls back to the lower median line parallel.

Crude needs a test of the 200 day MA lower.  Natural Gas breaks down and now forming a second bear flag.

The US 30yr Treasury remains in the move up from 114-30.
The 10yr yields lower 4.05%.  The expected oversold level for the 10yr yield declines to 4.07%

The US Dollar – moving lower as rates go lower.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESH26

Monthly –Monthly bar rallys off support. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of January as bullish.  The 7043 price remains the adjusted high.  7208 is the next target up. A close below 6732 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar creates a lower high and moves lower.  Trade pressures are now down. Volumes are now bearish.  Price below the prior high pivot of 7043. The support trendline is at 6773. A close below 6692 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Short. The rally tested the upper median line parallel and then turned lower at 6953 on 2/12 to form a lower high. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 6778. The expected oversold level rises to 6776.

A close above 6910 would signal higher. The expected overbought level declines to 7013.

[OB/OS trend is widening.] Expect increasing volatility.

[2-14-26: Take Profit at the 6776 OverSold level. Set the SL at 6948.]

[2-17-26: Raise the Profit stop to 6792, Lower the SL to 6883.]

[2-17-26: Profit Stop triggered. Flat at 6792.]

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Market Summary:

Copper near new long entry. Gold a new long entry, but tight stops. Silver has too much room above and below .

Crude is a new long entry soon.  Natural Gas forming a bear flag.

The US 30yr Treasury in a new move up from 114-30.
The 10yr yields continue above 4.22%.  The expected oversold level for the 10yr yield holds to 4.17%

The US Dollar – moving higher, with negative correlations to other asset classes.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESH26

Monthly –Monthly bar rallys off support. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of January as bullish.  The 7043 price remains the adjusted high.  7208 is the next target up. A close below 6732 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar breaks back above the trendline resistance.  Trade pressures are now down. Volumes remain bullish.  Price below the prior high pivot at 7043. The support trendline is at 6751 which was just tested in this last week’s move down. A close below 6692 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat. The early week move down was from 6935 to 6776, then rallied hard to recoup most of the early week losses. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 7001. The expected overbought level rises to 7051.

A close below 6896 would signal lower. The expected oversold level declines to 6746.

[OB/OS trend is widening.] Expect increasing volatility.

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