Category: S&P

May 25, 2020

Featured

Hurst Cycles

May 25, 2020

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Pressures_

Copper is still in the move up. Gold and silver are in the second leg up.

Crude oil is consolidating. Natural gas has triggered a new long.

The US 30 year Treasury Bond is in a range.

The US Dollar futures are in a similar channel range.

_______________________

S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – In the rally inside the downtrend. Trade pressures are up. Volumes closed the month of April as neutral. The close above 2461 has validated the weekly move up. The next target up is the prior high at 3397. A close below the prior month open at 2564 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – In the move up off the April 2440 long entry. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 3240. A close below 2703 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat. Has moved above the 200 day MA. Trade pressures are up but reversing. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 3262. A close below 2767 would signal lower.

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Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins the year at $100,000. Only the Top 5 Growth stocks will be tracked this 2020 year.

The Top 5 portfolio sold off this week and is valued at approximately $92,000, now down only 8% YTD. The 13% gains from these first two months of 2020 evaporated, but so have the down 32% lows of March. The portfolio fundamentals should become more important as the market narrows.

Brown& Brown (BRO) and Microsoft (MSFT) will be replaced by Fortinet (FTNT) and Nvidia (NVDA) at the open on Tuesday.

[The author may have long or short positions in any of the securities mentioned.]

May 22, 2020

Featured

Navellier Top % Stocks for June

The following is provided by Navellier with technical comment from South Ocean Management – pls do your own due diligence.
(For this 2020 year, SOM will track only the Top 5 Hi-Growth Investments.)

https://navelliergrowth.investorplace.com/

Navellier says,

High-Growth Investments

Dexcom, Inc.

Dexcom, Inc. (DXCM) is a medical specialties company that developed a continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) device. Its device enables diabetics to test their blood glucose levels without pricking their finger. Despite this innovative technology, Dexcom has been flying under the radar—until recently. On May 12, Dexcom replaced Allergan in the S&P 500, giving it a lot more visibility with institutional investors.

Institutional investors are clearly excited about Dexcom’s fundamentals and prospects going forward. The stock has rallied more than 20% in the past four weeks alone. Interestingly, DXCM is actually up 85% year-to-date, which makes it the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 right now.

The reality is that Dexcom has seen an increase in demand for its CGM devices amidst the global coronavirus pandemic, and that was apparent in its recent quarterly results. During the first quarter, revenue jumped 44% year-over-year to $405.1 million. First-quarter earnings surged to $41.4 million, or $0.44 per share, up from a loss in the same quarter a year ago. Analysts were expecting earnings of $0.14 per share, so Dexcom posted a whopping 214.3% earnings surprise.

Looking forward, Dexcom anticipates that even more patients will benefit from its virtual diabetes care and real-time monitoring. The company expects more patients will switch to telemedicine in the wake of the coronavirus, which will continue to add to Dexcom’s top and bottom lines. DXCM is an Aggressive buy below $465.

SOM Technicals:

4-25-20: Closed at 332.44. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are bullish. New highs next target up is 350.00.

5-2-20: Closed at 341.52. Trade pressures are down into,the neutral zone. Volumes remain bullish. The pull back could go to 304 and still be in the uptrend.

5-8-20: Closed at 405.50. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish; some selling into this big rally.

5-15-20: Closed at 417.13. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are neutral. support is at 381.00.

5-22-20: Closed at 405.25. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral. In a retracement move down to test the 25×5 MA support at 370.

Fortinet, Inc.

Fortinet, Inc. (FTNT) recently achieved a significant milestone. The company’s FortiProxy secure web gateway solution, which protects against malicious websites, viruses and traffic, received Department of Defense Information Network (DoDIN) Approved Products List certification. In other words, Fortinet products can now be used by Department of Defense agencies.

The Department of Defense joins more than 450,000 customers that rely on Fortinet to protect their businesses from cyberthreats. The company has shipped more than 5.6 million units since its founding in 2000, which has supported significant top and bottom line growth over the years.

In the first quarter, Fortinet reported that revenue increased 22% year-over-year to $576.9 million. Product revenue accounted for $192.3 million, and service revenue totaled $384.6 million. The company also recorded total billions of $667.8 million, up from $551.6 million in the first quarter of 2019.

First-quarter earnings grew 29.2% year-over-year to $104.4 million, while earnings per share rose 30.4% year-over-year to $0.60. The consensus estimate called for earnings of $0.51 per share on $556.69 million in revenue. So, Fortinet posted a 17.6% earnings surprise and a 3.6% revenue surprise. FTNT is a Moderately Aggressive buy below $159.

SOM Technicals:

5-22-20:Closed at 142.64. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. In the move up but the next short entry is 136.78.

NVIDIA Corporation

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) develops graphic processing units (GPUs) that are used in video games, professional visualization, data center and automotive applications. The company has been in the computer graphics business for more than two decades—and it’s been one of my favorite stocks to own in the space.

In fact, long-time Growth Investor members probably recall that we sold NVIDIA back in January 2019 for a more than 270% gain. We bought the stock back in May 2019 to further take advantage of the company’s efforts in the artificial intelligence space, as it’s at the forefront of helping to develop autonomous vehicles. That turned out to be a very timely decision; NVDA has more than doubled for us in the past year.

The reality is that NVIDIA still has stunning earnings and sales. In fact, on Thursday afternoon, the company released results for its first quarter in fiscal year 2020. The company reported earnings of $1.80 per share on $3.08 billion in revenue, or 105% annual earnings growth and 39% annual revenue growth. The consensus estimate called for earnings of $1.68 per share and revenue of $2.98 billion, so NVIDIA posted a 7.1% earnings surprise and slight revenue surprise.

NVIDIA also noted that it completed its acquisition of Mellanox Technologies Ltd. on April 27. The deal was valued at $7.0 billion, and will further add to the company’s top line. For the second quarter, which takes into account the recent acquisition, NVIDIA expects revenue to be about $3.65 billion. That’s nicely higher than analysts’ current expectations for $3.15 billion. NVDA is a Moderately Aggressive buy below $402.

SOM Technicals:

5-22-20: Closed at 361.05. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 364.40.

ResMed, Inc.

ResMed, Inc. (RMD) was added to the High-Growth Investments Buy List in the March Monthly Issue, just ahead of the coronavirus pandemic. The stock turned out to be a very fortuitous addition to the Buy List. The reality is that ResMed provides CPAP masks, machines and other life support ventilators for in-home use, so its products have been in top demand in recent months.

In fact, in response to the coronavirus pandemic, ResMed amped up its ventilator production. The company produced more than 52,000 non-invasive ventilators, which represented a 300% year-over-year increase. ResMed also recently introduced cloud-based, remote monitoring software to help doctors keep an eye on their patients who typically need regular checkups.

So, it’s not too surprising that ResMed achieved stunning earnings and sales results for its third quarter in fiscal year 2020. Third-quarter revenue grew 16% year-over-year to $769.5 million, and earnings increased 44.9% year-over-year to $1.29 per share. That exceeded analysts’ expectations for earnings of $1.04 per share and revenue of $722.52 million.

I should add that ResMed continues to reward its shareholders. The company will pay a quarterly dividend of $0.39 per share on June 18. All shareholders of record on May 14 will receive the dividend. The stock has a 1% dividend yield. RMD is a Conservative buy below $169.

SOM Technicals:

3-27-20: Closed at 141.95. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. In the new move up from the 129.46 long entry price.

4-4-20: Closed at 152.97. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 1182.81.

4-11-20: Closed at 152.97. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 182.81.

4-17-20: Closed at 165.16. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is the 177.99 prior high.

4-25-20: Closed at 161.90. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are now neutral. At the upside 62% target. Expect consolidation.

5-2-20: Closed at 159.07. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bearish. At the 62% target and in consolidation.

5-8-20: Closed at 162.75. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. In consolidation at the 162 target level.

5-15-20: Closed at 164.12. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bullish. Consolidating at the 162 target level. The next target up is 180.00.

5-22-20: Closed at 161.35. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bearish. In consolidation at the 162 level. A trade below 155 would signal lower.

Vipshop Holdings Ltd.

Vipshop Holdings Ltd. (VIPS) is an online discount retailer of consumer goods in China. The company offers brand-name products at bargain prices, and its discount model has attracted many loyal Chinese customers over the past 12 years. At the end of fiscal year 2019, Vipshop had 69 million active users.

Adding to Vipshop’s popularity is that fellow ecommerce companies Tencent (TCEHY) and JD.com (JD) purchased stakes in the company in 2017. This investment has funneled even more Chinese consumers to Vipshop’s online marketplace.

Vipshop Holdings is scheduled to announce first-quarter results before the stock market opens on Wednesday, May 27. The analyst community is looking for earnings of $0.11 per share and revenue of $2.54 billion, which compares to earnings of $0.17 per share and revenue of $2.99 billion in the first quarter of 2019. VIPS has posted a positive earnings surprise in each of the last four quarters, and I’m expecting a repeat performance for the first quarter. VIPS is an Aggressive buy below $17.

SOM Technicals:

4-25-20: Closed at 16.09. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. Support at the 25×5 MA at 16.00.

5-2-20: Closed at 15.20. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. In a new move down. The next target down is 11.53.

5-8-20. Closed at 17.18. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bullish. Ripped higher at the close. Need a close above 17.25 to change the trend.

5-15-20: Closed at 16.85. Trade pressures are down, but rising. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 18.95.

5-22-20: Closed at 14.38. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. Hit 16 and turned lower. A close below 14.16 would signal lower.

May 16, 2020

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Pressures_

Copper is in a small pullback. Gold is in a new long trade. Silver led gold and is now extended.

Crude oil continues to rally to the $30 level. Natural gas is looking sold out.

The US 30 year Treasury Bond is stuck in a channel. looking for a sign.

The US Dollar futures are similarly waiting in a channel. Is it inflation driven by the huge increase of new government monies that will be the trigger for the next move?

_______________________

S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – In the move down from the 3176 short confirmation level. Trade pressures are up. Volumes closed the month of April as neutral. The next target down is 2461. The April close above 2858 had confirmed the weekly move up.

Weekly – In the move up from the 2440 long confirmation level. Trade pressures are up but have had a bearish reversal. Volumes are bullish. A close below the 2678 level would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat. Five test of the 200 day MA. Trade pressures are down but have reversed and are rising. Volumes are neutral.

In the move up from the 2420 level. In consolidation around the 2840 target.The next target up is the 2955 high pivot, then 3262.

Hard to see how we get to 3200’s. The market does feel a little heavy so, maybe a pullback first. A close below 2679 would signal lower. Until that, these dips seem to be bought. Doug Kass says the hardest trade is up, right now.

Time pressures are down until the last week of May.

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Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins the year at $100,000. Only the Top 5 Growth stocks will be tracked this 2020 year.

The Top 5 portfolio held this week and remained valued at approximately $94,000, now down only 6% YTD. The 13% gains from these first two months of 2020 evaporated, but so have the down 32% lows of March. The portfolio fundamentals should become more important as the market narrows.

[The author may have long or short positions in any of the securities mentioned.]

May 8, 2020

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Pressures_

Copper is in the new move up and quickly at the targets. Gold has tried to rally but looks lower. Silver is overbought.

Crude has rallied to the mid 20’s and is also overbought. Natural gas has sold down to support, look for a rally.

The US 30 year Treasury Bonds are looking lower.

The US Dollar Futures are in the channel with another leg down, but already oversold.

_______________________

S&P Futures_

Monthly – Still in the monthly move down. Trade pressures are up. Volumes closed the month of April as neutral. The next target down is 2461. The close above 2858 confirms the weekly move up. The next target up is 3176.

Weekly – In this volatile move up from 2440. Trade pressures are up and extended. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 3240. A close below 2678 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat. In the move up from the 2428 long entry in late March. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish but on very low volumes. The next target up is the confluence of the 200 day MA at 2936 and the recent high pivot at 2965. Beyond these targets is the upper bound of the channel at 3252.

Time pressures now begin to decline into the end of May.

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Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins the year at $100,000. Only the Top 5 Growth stocks will be tracked this 2020 year.

The Top 5 portfolio rose 7% this week to approximately $94,000, now down only 6% YTD. The 13% gains from these first two months of 2020 evaporated, but so have the down 32% lows of March. The portfolio fundamentals should become more important as the market narrows.

[The author may have long or short positions in any of the securities mentioned.]

May 2, 2020

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Pressures_

Copper is pulling back inside it’s uptrend. Gold is trying move lower. Silver is in a shallow move down.

Crude is a retracement move up. Natural gas is in a choppy move inside a wide channel.

The US 30 Year Treasuries are side ways but looking for a new move down.

The US Dollar futures remain in the wide channel.

_______________________

S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – The April bar has engulfed the March bar. Trade pressures are up. Volumes closed the month of April as Neutral (buyers equaled sellers). Still in the move down. The next target down is 2461. A close above the 3176 level would confirm any weekly move higher.

Weekly – Still in the move up. Trade pressures are up Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 2833 then 3240. A close below 2671 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat. The time pressures are down and will begin a new cycle up in the next week. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish. The next target up is 3262. A close below 2742 would signal lower and a target of 2361.

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Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins the year at $100,000. Only the Top 5 Growth stocks will be tracked this 2020 year.

The portfolio fell back another 1% this week to approximately $87,000, now down 13% YTD. The 13% gains from these first two months of 2020 have evaporated., but so have the down 32% lows of March. The portfolio fundamentals should become more important as the market narrows.

[The author may have long or short positions in any of the securities mentioned.]

April 25, 2020

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Pressures_

Copper is in a new move up. Gold is losing momentum in the rally. Silver could begin a new rally if it can hold 14.00.

Crude Oil is un-tradeable. Natural Gas is in a retracement of the move up; could have a new long entry soon.

The US 30YR Treasury is in a move up, but looking for a new short.

The US Dollar futures are range bound between 101 and 98.

_______________________

S%P 500 Futures_

Monthly – Still in the move down. Trade pressures are down but turning up. Volumes closed the Month of March as bearish. The next target down is 2461. A close above 2858 would confirm any weekly move higher.

Weekly – In the move up from the 2441 level off the lows. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. At the 2833 target and consolidating. The next target up is 3240. A close below 2598 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat. In the move up and at the 2849 upside target and consolidating. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is first the 200 day MA at 2941, then the 3252 100% target. A close below 2662 would signal lower and a test of the 2500 level.

Watch the 2799 level on the 60 minute charts.

_______________________

Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins the year at $100,000. Only the Top 5 Growth stocks will be tracked this 2020 year.

The portfolio fell back another 2% this week to approximately $88,000, now down 12% YTD. The 13% gains from these first two months of 2020 have evaporated., but so have the down 32% lows of March. These fundamentals should become more important as the market narrows.

Copart (CPRT) , Invitation Homes (INVH) and S&P Global (SPGI) will be replaced by DexCom (DXCM), Microsoft (MSFT) and VipShop Hldg (VIPS) at the open on Monday.

[The author may have long or short positions in any of the securities mentioned.]

April 25, 2020

Navellier Top Stocks for May

The following is provided by Navellier with technical comment from South Ocean Management – pls do your own due diligence.
(For this 2020 year, SOM will track only the Top 5 Hi-Growth Investments.)

https://navelliergrowth.investorplace.com/

Navellier says,

High-Growth Investments

Brown & Brown, Inc.

Brown & Brown, Inc. (BRO) is the sixth-largest insurance brokerage in the U.S., with more than 290 locations. Insurance isn’t a very sexy business, but Brown & Brown’s business model is very attractive—and it’s added to its top and bottom lines over the years. Simply put, Brown & Brown focuses first and foremost on its customers and protecting their most-valued assets.

Brown & Brown is scheduled to announce first-quarter results after the closing bell on Monday, April 27. The consensus estimate calls for earnings of $0.46 per share on revenue of $682 million, which represents 13.4% annual revenue growth and 12.2% annual earnings growth.

Analysts’ earnings estimates have remained steady over the past few months. The company has posted a positive earnings surprise in each of the last four quarters, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Brown & Brown exceeds analysts’ expectations again. BRO is a Conservative buy below $37.

SOM Technicals:

3-27-20: Closed at 35.93. Trade pressures are rising into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. Need a close above 36.10 to start a new move up.

4-4-20: Closed at 33.41. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is the 30.70 prior low.

4-11-20: Closed at 39.03. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. In the move up, the next target up is 44.85.

4-17-20: closed at 38.10. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. Consolidating at the 200 day MA.

4-25-20: Closed at 34.76. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is a retest of the lows. at 30.70.

5-2-20: Closed at 35.06. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral. At the 25×5 support level. of 36.

5-8-20: Closed at 37.60. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. Still in the move down. Need a close above 38.00 change the trend.

5-15-20: Closed at 37.00. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bullish. The new uptrend has started.

DexCom, Inc.

DexCom, Inc. (DXCM) has been a solid performer for us, up more than 156% since we added it to the High-Growth Investments Buy List in December 2018. The reality is that DexCom has cornered a very lucrative market: continuous glucose monitoring (CGM). The company’s CGM technology enables a diabetic to test their blood glucose levels without pricking their finger.

Strong demand for its products and services have driven DexCom’s sales and earnings growth over the years. In fiscal year 2019, the company achieved 397.3% annual earnings growth and 43.7% annual revenue growth.

DexCom will post earnings and revenue results for its first quarter in fiscal year 2020 on Tuesday, April 28 after the stock market closes. First-quarter earnings are expected to surge 380% year-over-year to $0.14 per share, up from a $0.05 per share loss in the same quarter a year ago. Analysts have upped earnings forecasts over the past three months, which means a fifth-straight quarterly earnings surprise is likely. Revenue is forecast to increase 28% year-over-year to $358.94 million. DXCM is an Aggressive buy below $381.

SOM Technicals:

4-25-20: Closed at 332.44. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are bullish. New highs next target up is 350.00.

5-2-20: Closed at 341.52. Trade pressures are down into,the neutral zone. Volumes remain bullish. The pull back could go to 304 and still be in the uptrend.

5-8-20: Closed at 405.50. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish; some selling into this big rally.

5-15-20: Closed at 417.13. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are neutral. support is at 381.00.

Microsoft Corporation

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is a big-name technology company that’s most well-known for its Windows operating systems. There are currently more than 900 million devices utilizing the latest Windows operating system, Windows 10. And, amidst the coronavirus pandemic, the company’s Microsoft Teams platform has enabled businesses to work remotely together, with group chats, video meetings, calls and collaborative workspaces.

Company management noted that it’s seen a dramatic increase in demand for Microsoft Teams and Microsoft 365, as businesses around the world enabled their employees to work remotely. Microsoft Teams has also helped many schools and universities better connect students and educators.

Still, Microsoft stated that interruptions to supply chains due to the coronavirus likely impacted the company’s top and bottom lines in its third quarter in fiscal year 2020. Analysts, however, have actually increased earnings forecasts over the past three months. The current consensus estimate calls for earnings of $1.24 per share, or 13.2% annual earnings growth.

We’ll have a clearer picture on Microsoft’s fundamentals on Wednesday, April 29, as the company is scheduled to announce third-quarter results. For now, the company is benefiting from an influx in buying pressure and strong top- and bottom-line growth. MSFT is a Conservative buy below $182.

SOM Technicals:

4-25-20: Closed at 174.55. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral. The next target up is 196.00. Consolidating at the 62% upside target .

5-2-20: Closed at 174.57. Trade pressures are up but near the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral. Consolidating around the 178 100 % target.

5-8-20: Closed at 184.68. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. the next target up is 192.31.

5-15-20: Closed at 183.16. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 192.31

ResMed, Inc.

ResMed, Inc. (RMD) is a leading provider of respiratory solutions, as the company offers CPAP devices and other life support ventilators in more than 120 countries around the world. In response to the coronavirus pandemic, ResMed is planning to double, and possibly triple, its production of ventilators and ventilation masks. These efforts are aimed at aiding in treatment of patients diagnosed with the coronavirus—and should also add to the company’s top and bottom lines.

ResMed is set to report earnings and sales for its third quarter in fiscal year 2020 after the stock market closes on Thursday, April 30. The company is expected to report earnings of $1.05 per share, or 18% annual earnings growth, and revenue of $720.4 million. Analysts have also upped earnings forecasts over the past three months, which bodes well for a fifth-straight quarterly earnings surprise.

I should also add that ResMed continues to reward its shareholders with quarterly dividends. Most recently, the company paid a dividend of $0.39 per share on March 19. RMD has climbed nicely higher with other dividend stocks recently, jumping 48% in the past five weeks. RMD is a Conservative buy below $169.