Featured
Author: ChasW
S&P 500 Futures
Market Summary:
Copper sells of after a run to 6.70. Gold and silver both lower.
Crude now higher. Natural Gas attempts another breakout at 3.00.
The US 30yr Treasury lower as the 10yr yield rises.
The 10yr yields rise to 4.58%.
The expected overbought level for the 10yr yield rises to 4.62%.
The US Dollar – Higher with rates.
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S&P 500 Futures #ESM26, #MESM26
Monthly –Monthly bar recovers and is making new ATH’s. Trade pressures remain up, still declining. Volumes closed the month of April as bullish. The 7540 price is the adjusted high. The next target up is 7615. A close below 7229 would confirm any weekly move lower.
Weekly – The weekly bar higher off the Oct 31 resistance line which now becomes support. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes remain bullish. The next target up is 7615. A close below 7365 would confirm any daily move lower.
Daily – Flat. Price reaches 7540 on 5/14. Now turning down to test the 7355 daily short entry. Trade pressures are down, Volumes are bearish.
Short from the 2hr short entry at 7441. The next target down is 7342. The expected oversold level rises to 7294.
A close above 7468 would signal higher. The expected overbought level rises to 7525.
[OB/OS trend is rising.]
The VIX closes below 19 at 16.98 indicating market is investable.
The Hedgeye.com VIX risk range is 16.59 – 19.49.
[5-18-26: Set the SL for the move down at 7473.]
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Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is reset to start at $100,000 for the 2026 year.
These Navellier Top 5 portfolio stocks closed:
Down 35% for the 2022 Year.
Up 17% for the 2023 Year.
Up 42% for the 2024 Year.
Up 48% for the 2025 Year
Portfolio stock values for 2026.
The portfolio value down for the week, at $158,000.
The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is up 58%.
The GDP nowcast has rising growth projected thru July, then slowing. This “up 61%” needs to be protected/taken in this time frame.
The S&P 500 YTD return is 8.22%
US$$
#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures
USD_ DXM26
Weekly – In the March 2026 uptrend. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.
Daily – Long. In the move up from the 98.07 breakout on 5/12. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.
The next target up is 99.44. The expected overbought level rises to 99.45.
The next target down remains 97.20. The expected oversold levels rise to 98.43.
[The OB/OS channel is rising.]
US30YR T-BOND_ USM26
Weekly – In the March 2026 downtrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes remain bearish.
Daily – Flat. In a second move up off the 112-00 lows. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.
The next target down is 113-03. Oversold levels decline to 110-13.
A close above 113-28 would signal higher. Overbought levels decline to 113-14.
[The OB/OS channel is declining.]
10yr yields rise to 4.58%. off the 4.42% OS.
Oil & Gas
#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures
CRUDE_ CLM26
Weekly – In the January 2026 uptrend. Trade pressures remain up, but declining to near neutral. Volumes remain bearish.
Daily – Flat. Short trade stopped out at the 97.05 level. Now in the move up from 97.27 on 5/14. Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish.
The next target up is 104.53. The expected overbought levels rises to 108.64.
A close below 99.21 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 98.96.
[OB/OS channel is rising.] expect increasing volatility.
OVX (oil volatility) holding at 73; still high.
(One of the larger components in the measure of inflation.The Hedgeye.com inflation nowcast now expects inflation rising in the 2nd thru the 4th quarters of 2026.)
[5-18-26: Lesson: Don’t trade against the channel direction.] [Set the SL at 100.54]
NAT GAS_ NGM26
Weekly – In the January 2025 uptrend. Trade pressures are now up. Volumes are now neutral.
Daily – Flat, Breaking out of the January bull flag at 2.99 on 5/18. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.
The target at 3.06 is providing resistance. The expected overbought level rises to 3.14.
A close below 2.73 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 2.82.
[OB/OS channel is rising.]
Natural gas is produced with oil production. Natural gas production as a ratio of oil production has been rising, amounting to 47% of the permian basin oil production in 2024.
[5-18-26: Set a SL at 2.96.]
Metals
#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures
COPPER_ HGN26, MHGN26
Weekly – In the October 2025 uptrend. Trade pressures remain up, but declining. Volumes are now bearish..
Daily – Short. In the move down from 6.35. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.
The next target down is 6.02. The expected oversold levels rise to 6.10.
A close above 6.35 would signal higher. The expected overbought levels rise to 6.69.
[OB/OS channel is rising.]
[5-18-26: Set the SL at 6.35.]
GOLD_ GCM26, MGCM26
Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend, still near support. Trade pressures remain down. Volumes remain bearish.
Daily – Flat. Trade stopped out at 4659. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now bearish.
The next target down is 4449. The expected oversold level declines to 4524.
A close above 4606 would signal higher. The expected overbought level declines to 4688.
[OB/OS channel is declining.] GVX holding near 26.40 – remaining in the investable zone.
SILVER_ SIN26
Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.
Daily – Flat. Silver rallied to 90; then turned lower with a break below 85. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now bearish.
Basing at the 75 level. The oversold levels rise to 77.
A close above 79 would signal higher. Overbought levels rise to 96.
[OB/OS channel is rising.]
[5-18-26: Nearing the lower channel boundary.]
S&P 500 Futures
Market Summary:
Copper breaks out and powers higher on demand and inflation. Gold late week rally stalls at resistance. GVX in the mid 20’s, allowing risk.
Crude continues lower. Natural Gas attempts another breakout but turns lower once again into the weekend.
The US 30yr Treasury rises as the 10yr yield declines.
The 10yr yields decline to 4.35%. Quickly OS, as the OB/OS range is narrow.
The expected overbought level for the 10yr yield rises to 4.47%.
The US Dollar – Lower pressures remain; continuing lower.
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S&P 500 Futures #ESM26, #MESM26
Monthly –Monthly bar recovers and is making new ATH’s. Trade pressures remain up, still declining. Volumes closed the month of April as bullish. The 7427 price is the adjusted high. The next target up is 7615. A close below 7117 would confirm any weekly move lower.
Weekly – The weekly bar higher off the Oct 31 resistance line which now becomes support. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes remain bullish. The next target up is 7615. A close below 7253 would confirm any daily move lower.
Daily – Flat. Continues in the move up from the 6893 long entry on 4/13. Trade pressures remain up, declining. Volumes remain bullish.
The next target up is 7425, still above the OB level. The expected overbought level rises to 7399.
A close below 7329 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 7224.
[OB/OS trend is rising.]
The VIX closes below 19 at 16.98 indicating market is investable.
The Hedgeye.com VIX risk range is 16.14 – 19.38.
__________________
Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is reset to start at $100,000 for the 2026 year.
These Navellier Top 5 portfolio stocks closed:
Down 35% for the 2022 Year.
Up 17% for the 2023 Year.
Up 42% for the 2024 Year.
Up 48% for the 2025 Year
Portfolio stock values for 2026.
The portfolio value higher for the week, at $161,000.
The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is up 61%.
The GDP nowcast has rising growth projected thru July, then slowing. This “up 61%” needs to be protected/taken in this time frame.
The S&P 500 YTD return is 7.18%
US$$
#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures
USD_ DXM26
Weekly – In the March 2026 uptrend. Trade pressures remain down. Volumes remain bearish.
Daily – Flat. Consolidating. Trade pressures remain down. Volumes remain bearish.
The next target down remains 97.20. The expected oversold levels decline to 97.48.
A close above 98.07 would signal higher The expected overbought level declines to 98.54.
[The OB/OS channel is declining.]
Inflation worries drive rate concerns higher.
US30YR T-BOND_ USM26
Weekly – In the new March 2026 downtrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes remain bearish.
Daily – Flat. In a second move up off the 112-00 lows. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.
The next target down is 113-03. Oversold levels decline to 111-13.
A close above 113-28 would signal higher. Overbought levels decline to 114-19.
[The OB/OS channel is declining.]
10yr yields decline to 4.35%. and near the 4.32% OS.
[OS suggest a rate rise. So, no trade.]
Oil & Gas
#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures
CRUDE_ CLM26
Weekly – In the January 2026 uptrend. Trade pressures remain up, but declining to near neutral. Volumes are are now bearish.
Daily – Short. Rallied to resistance. In the mve down from 102.82 on 5/5. Trade pressures down. Volumes are now bullish.
The next target down is 93.58, which is also support. The expected oversold level declines to 91.01.
A close above 97.92 would signal higher. The expected overbought levels declines to 107.88.
[OB/OS channel is rising.] expect increasing volatility.
OVX (oil volatility) holding at 72; still high.
(One of the larger components in the measure of inflation.The Hedgeye.com inflation nowcast now expects inflation rising in the 2nd thru the 4th quarters of 2026.)
[5-8-26: Set the SL at 97.05.]
NAT GAS_ NGM26
Weekly – In the January 2025 uptrend. Trade pressures remain down. Volumes remain bearish.
Daily – Flat, The move up started at 2.67. Back-tested the entry on 5/7, then higher again. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bearish.
The next target up is 2.85 resistance. The expected overbought level rises to 2.91.
A close below 2.73 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 2.61.
[OB/OS channel is rising.]
Natural gas is produced with oil production. Natural gas production as a ratio of oil production has been rising, amounting to 47% of the permian basin oil production in 2024. Currently an overproduction of gas and diesel has created a natural gas glut; driving prices down.
[5-8-26: Set a SL at 2.73.]
Metals
#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures
COPPER_ HGN26, MHGN26
Weekly – In the October 2025 uptrend. Trade pressures remain up, but declining. Volumes remain neutral.
Daily – Flat. The move up from 6.03 on 5/1 takes price to 6.28. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.
The next target up is 6.34. The expected overbought levels rise to 6.33.
A close below 6.19 would signal lower. The expected oversold levels rise to 5.92.
[OB/OS channel is rising.]
[5-8-26: Missed this one.]
GOLD_ GCM26, MGCM26
Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend, still near support. Trade pressures remain down. Volumes remain bearish.
Daily – Long. Price moved below 4549 then turned higher. In the move up from 4639 on 5/5. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are now bullish.
The next target up is 4822. The expected overbought level rises to 4768.
A close below 4670 would signal lower. The expected oversold level declines to 4551.
[OB/OS channel is widening.] GVX hold near 26.40 – remaining in the investable zone.
[5-8-26: Set the SL at 4659.]
SILVER_ SIN26
Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes remain neutral.
Daily – Flat. After a retest of the breakout trendline, Silver moved higher on news. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes are now bullish.
The next target up is 84.86. Overbought levels rise to 82.9.
A close below 72.68 would signal lower. The oversold levels rise to 70.2.
[OB/OS channel is rising.]
[5-8-26: Nearing the upper channel boundary. Trim,Take profits.]
S&P 500 Futures
Market Summary:
Copper in a correction down, look for a breakout of the bull flag. Gold basing and Silver breaks above the bull flag. GVX declining, allowing risk.
Crude rallied on Iranian news, but turning down at the weekend. Natural Gas attempts a breakout but turns lower into the weekend.
The US 30yr Treasury rises as the 10yr reaches OB.
The 10yr yields rise to 4.37%.
The expected overbought level for the 10yr yield rises to 4.43%.
The US Dollar – attempted a rally, but turning lower.
_________________
S&P 500 Futures #ESM26, #MESM26
Monthly –Monthly bar recovers and is making new ATH’s. Trade pressures remain up, but declining. Volumes closed the month of April as bullish. The 7300 price is the adjusted high. The next target up is 7374. A close below 6990 would confirm any weekly move lower.
Weekly – The weekly bar backtested the Oct 31 resistance line and moved higher. Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish. The next target up is 7374. A close below 7126 would confirm any new daily move lower.
Daily – Long. Continues in the move up from the 6893 long entry on 4/13. Trade pressures remain up, declining. Volumes remain bullish.
The next target up is 7305, which is also above the OB level. The expected overbought level rises to 7238.
A close below 7202 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 7068.
[OB/OS trend is rising.]
The VIX closes below 19 at 16.98 indicating market is investable. The Hedgeye.com VIX risk range is 16.34 -19.49. Buy the SPX dip at the VIX low RR and trim at the Top RR.
[5-1-26: At the OB level. Tighten stops. Raise the SL to 7233.]
[5-4-26: Long trade stopped out at 7233.]
__________________
Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is reset to start at $100,000 for the 2026 year.
These Navellier Top 5 portfolio stocks closed:
Down 35% for the 2022 Year.
Up 17% for the 2023 Year.
Up 42% for the 2024 Year.
Up 48% for the 2025 Year
Portfolio stock values for 2026.
The portfolio value higher for the week, at $157,000.
The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is up 57%.
The S&P 500 YTD return is 5.31%