Author: ChasW

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Pressures_

Copper is in the move up. Gold and Silver are in the retracement move up.

Crude oil move up sharply thru the new long entry. Natural gas is close to a bullish breakout.

The US 30YR Treasury bond is in the move up.

The US Dollar futures are in the move up again; targeting the prior highs.

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S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – In the move down and back near the 2461 downside target. Trade pressures are down. Volumes closed the month of March as bearish for the second month in a row. Not seen since 2009-2010. The next target close down is 2461. A close above 2856 would confirm any weekly move higher.

Weekly – In the new move up from the 2427 long entry price. Trade pressures are down but turning up. Volumes were bullish but now bearish. The next target up is 2838. A close below 2349 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Long. In the move up from the 2428 long entry. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target up is 2840. A close below 2411 would signal lower. The weekly trade  pressures have had a bullish reversal, so any daily bullish reversal should be positive.

Lots of “event risk” emanating from the white house.

[4-5-20: Sun Nite. Out at 2540. Look for a better entry.]

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Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins the year at $100,000. Only the Top 5 Growth stocks will be tracked this 2020 year.

The portfolio dropped this week to approximately $78,000, now down 22% YTD. The 13% gains from these first two months of 2020 have evaporated. But the fundamentals should remain intact.

 

[The author may have long or short positions in any of the securities mentioned.]

US$$

#usdollarfutures  #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXM20

Weekly – Retracing the move down with a 38% rise above the 100 level. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are neutral.

Daily – The short entry just below 103 sent the dollar down to the expected 100% target at 98.14. Then a five day rally has taken price back to the 100 level and a new long entry signal. Trade pressures are up and extended. Volumes are now bullish.

The next target up is 104.73.

A close below 99.64 would signal lower once again.

 

US 30YR T-BONDS_ USM20

Weekly  – In the move down after the sharp rally in early March. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are neutral.

Daily – Flat. In the new move up from the 176 level. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 190-11.

A close below 177-06 would signal lower.

[4-5-20: short at 181-15. Stop 182-31]

[4-6-20: Lower stops to the 181-15 entry price.]

 

 

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE CLK20

Weekly – Stopped at the long term trendline support at 20.00. Trade pressures are down but turning up. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – Flat. In the move up from the 23.09 long entry price. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

Touched the 28.71 target. The next target up is 34.55. Would look for the next pull back and following that go long at the next bullish reversal.

A close below 25.10 would signal lower.

 

NAT GAS_ NGK20

Weekly – Still in the move down. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Flat. Trade pressures are down but turning up. Volumes are bullish.

The next target down is the prior low of 1.52.

A close above 1.69 would signal higher. The 2hr chart shows nat gas just the break out of the downtrend line.

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGK20

Weekly – Two weeks closing up. Trade pressures are turning up. Volumes are neutral.

Daily – Flat. In the move up off the 1.97 lows. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 2.36.

As long as price does not go lower than the 2.08 new short entry, can go Long on the next bullish reversal now that the weekly has made a bullish reversal.

 

GOLD_ GCM20

Weekly  – In the move up. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are neutral.

Daily – Flat. Still in the move down but in a retracement up to near the 1650 short entry. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are neutral.

The next target down is 1556.

Now at the new long entry of 1634. This old short entry of 1650 and the new long entry of 1634 form a pivot point that is hard to trade. Going flat, if short, is the best advice and wait for a resolution of the this indecision.

 

SILVER_ SIK20

Weekly – The two week bounce has turned the week trade pressures while still down now turning up. Volumes are neutral.

Daily – Flat. In the move up from  the 12.95 long entry. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 16.90.

A close below 13.24 would signal lower.

 

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Pressures_

Copper is in a move up but often parallels the equity markets. Gold and Silver have had dramatic moves both down then up; showing some selling pressures now.

Crude oil is trying to find a base. Natural gas the same. Both are suffering from the industry participants need for cash; new supplies hit the market seemingly with every uptick.

The US 30 year Treasury Bond is in a new move up, but appears to be short lived.

The US Dollar futures are retreating off the recent highs as the world need for dollars temporarily abates.

_______________________

S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – Spiked down to a low of 2124 but rallied to close above the 2461 target. Trade pressures are down. Volumes closed the Month of  February as bearish and March should be same. The next target down is 2461. A close above 2858 would confirm many weekly move higher.

Weekly – The 2174 low was stopped by the lower median line from the Oct 2019 lows. Trade pressures are down but showing a bullish reversal. Volumes are still bearish. The next target down is a retest of the lows. The close above 2427 has confirmed the daily move up.

Daily – Long. In the move up from 2301 new long entry. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are three days bullish. The sell off at the Friday close should be limited as the weekly has had a bullish reversal. The next trade should be up with the daily and weekly in alignment. Watch the 60 min to see when the lower time frames have their next bullish reversal.

The next target up is 2713.

Where will we be wrong? A close below the both Thursday and Fridays lows would act as stops.

[4-1-20: A close below 2411 would signal lower. Use this as the stop.]

I think watch the Dollar futures, any sharp new demand for dollars may be an alert for a failure some where in the financial system.

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Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins the year at $100,000. Only the Top 5 Growth stocks will be tracked this 2020 year.

The portfolio is rallied this week to approximately $82,000, from minus 33% to minus 17% YTD, in this March month. The 13% gains from these first two months of 2020 have evaporated. But the fundamentals should remain intact.

(LDOS) Leidos Hldg and (TDY) Teledyne Technologies will be replaced with (BRO) Brown and Brown and (RMD) ResMed, Inc. at the open on Monday.

[The author may have long or short positions in any of the securities mentioned.]

US$$

#usdollarfutures  #ustreasurybondfutures

YSD DXM20

Weekly – Tagged the prior highs and then turned down to the earlier breakout just below 100. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are now neutral.

Daily – The Monday open rose to the 103.99 target then turned down thru the 102.75 short entry. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 95.65.

A close above 100.57 would signal a new move up. This would put the daily trade pressures in alignment with the weekly.

 

US 30 YR T-BONDS_ USM20

Weekly – The panic buying seems to be abating. Trade pressures are up but turning down. Volumes are now neutral.

Daily – Flat. In a new move up from the 176-00 new long entry. Trade pressures are up with a new bullish reversal. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 180-11.

As the weekly is turning down need to wait for the next bearish reversal on the daily. A close below 175-06 would signal lower.

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

Weekly – No real pivots to work from. Caught in the Saudi crude wars. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now neutral.

Daily – Still in the move down. Trade pressures are down now with a new bearish reversal. Volumes are bearish. Expect two to three days more down movement.

The next target down is 19.86.

A close above 24.34 would signal higher. On the lower time frames  (2 hr) need a close above 23.50.

 

NAT GAS_ NGK20

Weekly – The next weekly target down is 1.22. Trade pressures are down but showing some positive divergence. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Flat. Near the new long entry. Trade pressures are in the neutral zone but have made a new bearish reversal. Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is the prior low at 1.59.

A close above the 1/77 level would signal higher.

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGK20

Weekly – prior low was below 2.00. following week low was 2.02. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now neutral.

Daily – Flat. In the move up from the 2.07 long entry. Trade pressures are rising into the neutral zone. Volumes remain bearish.

The next target up is 2.21.

A bearish reversal in the daily would align with the weekly. a close below 2.08 would signal lower.

 

GOLD_ GCM20

Weekly – The prior gold strength gave way to the demand for cash (margin calls probably). Trade pressures are rising into the neutral zone after the selloff. Volumes are neutral.

Daily – Flat. In the move up from the 1506 level. Both the daily and the weekly trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 1665.

A close below 1650 would signal a retracement lower in the move up, likely target just below 1600 as the weekly is still bullish.

 

SILVER_ SIK20

Weekly – Big bounce after the crash to 11.61. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are now neutral.

Daily – Flat. In the move up form the 12.95 level. Trade pressures are up but turning down. Volumes are bullish to neutral.

The next target up is 14.89.

A close below 13.24 would signal lower. The next trade is the next daily bullish reversal to align the daily with the weekly trade pressures.

Navellier Top stocks for April

The following is provided by Navellier with technical comment from South Ocean Management – pls do your own due diligence.
(For this 2020 year, SOM will track only the Top 5 Hi-Growth Investments.)

https://navelliergrowth.investorplace.com/

Navellier says,

High-Growth Investments

Brown & Brown, Inc.

Brown & Brown, Inc. (BRO) is the sixth-largest insurance brokerage in the U.S., and we added it to the High-Growth Investments Buy List in the March Growth Investor Monthly Issue. You may recall that Brown & Brown was founded to help its community better protect their most-valued assets. And, in light of the coronavirus pandemic, the company is offering resources to help individuals and businesses better navigate the risks of the current environment.

Brown & Brown offers live stream informative sessions to discuss the evolving risks of the coronavirus pandemic. On the company’s website, businesses also have access to a slew of resources from checklists for evaluating employee benefits to insurance coverage related to COVID-19 claims. Clearly, Brown & Brown is helping keep its customers informed during these uncertain times.

Brown & Brown’s focus on its customers and support of the local community have added to the company’s success over the past 81 years. It should also play a key role in generating customer loyalty and add to the company’s future success.

For the first quarter, analysts’ earnings forecasts have remained fairly steady. Brown & Brown is expected to report earnings of $0.46 per share, or 12.2% annual earnings growth. And full-year 2020 earnings forecasts have actually been revised higher in the past two months. BRO is a Conservative buy below $39.

SOM Technicals:

3-27-20:  Closed at 35.93. Trade pressures are rising into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. Need a close above 36.10 to start a new move up.

4-4-20: Closed at 33.41. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is the 30.70 prior low.

 

Copart, Inc.

Copart, Inc. (CPRT) is our leading online auctioneer for vehicles, with more than 200 pick-up locations in 11 countries around the world. In 2019, Copart had more than two million unique international visitors to its sites. And, given the “social distancing” and “stay-at-home” policies, even more folks may be turning to Copart’s online options if they’re in need of a vehicle.

All of Copart’s auctions are conducted online, so there hasn’t been any adjustments to the company’s normal auction schedules. But, to keep up with demand and maintain its employees and customers’ safety, Copart encourages users to download its mobile app. The app will allow customers to pay for their vehicle online, schedule vehicle pickups, acquire vehicle titles and review vehicle condition reports.

Since Copart’s operations are continuing fairly normally, there should be little impact to the company’s top and bottom lines. For the company’s third quarter in fiscal year 2020, the consensus estimate calls for earnings of $0.74 per share on $606.85 million in revenue. That represents 12.1% annual earnings growth and 9.7% annual revenue growth. CPRT is a Moderately Aggressive buy below $77.

SOM Technicals:

11-22-19: Closed at 89.26. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are neutral. In the uptrend. The next target up is 95.56.

11-30-19: Closed at 89.00. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are neutral. The next target up is 94.81.

12-7-19: Closed at 88.58. Trade pressures are in the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish. Still in the uptrend.

12-12-19: Closed at 88.62. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are neutral.. The next target up is 94.81.

12-21-19: Closed at 90.72. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. the next target up is 94.81.

1-4-20: Closed at 92.66. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 94.81.

1-18-20: Closed at 97.12. Trade pressures are up but turning down. Volumes are bullish. Consolidating at the 84.81 target.

1-25-20: Closed at 100.29. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 108.17.

1-31-20: Closed At 101.46. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are bearish. Still in the move up. 98.97 would trigger a sell.

2-7-20: Closed at 102.58. Trade pressures are up but diverging. Volumes are bullish. A close below 98.97 would signal lower.

2-16-20: Closed at 103.25. trade  pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. A close below 98.97 would signal lower.

2-23-20: Closed at 95.25. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral. The downside target at 90.82 held as support. The next target down is 90.82.

2-29-20: Closed at 84.48. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bullish. At the 200 day MA. A close above 87.30 would signal higher.

3-6-20: Closed at 80.19. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bearish. Just below the 200 day MA.

3-14-20: Closed at 73.84. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are now bullish.at the 1.62% down side target. Need a close above 75.87 to move higher.

3-21-20: Closed at 60.15. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 55.67. need a close above 67.12 to restart any move up.

3-27-20: Closed at 70.30. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. Traded up after the touch of the lower median line. Now in the new move up from the 69.91 long entry.

4-4-20: Closed at 61.80. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. Down hard from the new long entry. stop at the prior low of 55.69.

 

Invitation Homes, Inc.

Invitation Homes, Inc. (INVH) offers quality single-family rental homes in 17 popular U.S. cities, including Chicago, Denver, Las Vegas, Orlando, Phoenix, Seattle and Tampa. The company currently has more than 80,000 homes in its portfolio, with convenient locations to jobs and high-quality school districts.

The low mortgage rate environment has made home ownership attractive to many Americans. But others are still hesitant to buy, especially given the uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus outbreak in the U.S. and questions about when the country will be operating at normal levels again. As a result, home rentals remain in strong demand right now.

Analysts are foreseeing some impact to Invitation Homes business and have lowered earnings forecasts for the first quarter in the past month. But the company is still expected to report earnings of $0.05 per share and sales of $444.6 million, or 25% annual earnings growth and 2.1% annual sales growth.

I should add that Invitation Homes also continues to reward its shareholders. In January, the company increased its quarterly dividend by 15%. The stock currently has a 3.7% dividend yield. So, I expect yield-hungry investors to pour into INVH in the coming weeks. INVH is a Conservative buy below $22.

SOM Technicals:

2-29-20: Closed at 28.69. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bullish. Consolidating now at 27.96,  the 200 day MA.

3-6-20. Closed at 29.54. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The 200 day MA at 29.11 seems to hold.

3-14-20: Closed at 27.95. Trade pressures are down but rising and showing some divergences. Volumes are neutral. After spiking down to 22, price has closed above a new long entry at 25.15.

3-21-20: Closed at 17.19. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 13.50. Need a close above 20.02 to restart a move up.

3-27-20: Closed at 20.81. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The close above 18.79 triggered the new long entry.

4-4-20: Closed at 19.37. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. volumes are neutral. In rhe move up from the 18.70 entry the next target up is 23.90.

 

ResMed, Inc.

ResMed, Inc. (RMD) was also one of our new buys in the March Growth Investor Monthly Issue. ResMed, which is short for Respiratory Medicine, manufactures CPAP masks, machines and other life support ventilators for in-home use. With operations in more than 120 countries around the world, the company strives to help individuals with chronic respiratory diseases.

Given that the individuals with respiratory diseases are more at-risk to the coronavirus, it’s not too surprising that ResMed has stepped up to help combat the disease. The company has more than 7,500 employees around the world collaborating with hospitals, physicians, health authorities and governments. Respiratory equipment and ventilators have been in top demand.

ResMed has also stated that it will double—possibly triple—its production of ventilators, as well as produce 10 times more ventilation masks. These efforts will go a long way to helping treat patients with the coronavirus throughout the world.

The boost in production should also add to the company’s top and bottom lines. For the first quarter, the analyst community is looking for earnings of $1.05 per share, or 18% annual earnings growth, and revenue of $726.65 million in revenue. Analysts have also upped earnings forecasts over the past two months. RMD is a Conservative buy below $151.

SOM Technicals:

3-27-20: Closed at 141.95. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. In the new move up from the 129.46 long entry price.

4-4-20: Closed at 152.97. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 1182.81.

 

S&P Global, Inc.

S&P Global, Inc. (SPGI) provides vital financial information through its multiple divisions, including S&P Market Intelligence, S&P Global Ratings, S&P Dow Jones Indices and S&P Global Platts. In the current environment of economic and financial uncertainty, S&P Global is relied heavily on for data, credit ratings and custom indices.

S&P Global mines through more than 135 billion data points from around the world. Its analysts and systems process the data to uncover critical information and to provide strategic analysis. As a result, S&P Global’s resources are in top demand and deemed necessary to navigate today’s bumpy landscape.

For the first quarter, S&P Global is expected to report earnings of $2.35 per share and revenue of $1.69 billion. That translates to 7.9% annual revenue growth and 11.4% annual earnings growth. The company also recently paid a quarterly dividend of $0.67 per share on March 11. The stock has a 1.2% dividend yield. SPGI is a Conservative buy below $258.

SOM Technicals:

12-21-19: Closed at 271.66. Trade pressures are rising into the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish. The next target up is 284.50.

1-4-20: Closed at 276.91. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 296.

1-18-20: Closed at 296.79. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 303.26.

1-25-20: Closed at 294.83. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are neutral. 25×5 support is at 283.52.

1-31-20: Closed at 293.73. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target up is 303.26.

2-7-20: Closed at 295.48. Trade pressures are rising into the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish. The next target up is 303.26. Support is at 286.

2-16-20: Closed at 307.65. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. At the 303.26 target.

2-23-20: Closed at 293.25. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 283.00.

2.29.20: Closed at 265.91. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bullish. At 257.02, the 200 day MA.

3-6-20: Closed at 271.06. Trade pressures are down into the neutral one., Volumes are bearish. The 200 day MA is 258.76.

3-14-20: Closed at 248.47. Trade pressures down but rising. Volumes are bullish. The spike down and reversal has brought price up to near the new long entry at 250-55.

3-21-20: Closed at 208.79. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bullish. The next target down is 183.24. Need a close above 222.94 start a new move up.

3-27-20: Closed at 240.16. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. In the new move up from the 222.94 long entry.

4-4-20: Closed at 238.80. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. In the move up the next target up is the 200 day MA at 259.87.