Author: ChasW

S&P 500 Futures

Market Summary:

Copper retests the rising support.  Gold rallies from lower to the trend line; resistance overhead. Silver rally attempt must break 61.50.

Crude still in a bear flag. Natural Gas move up has successful break above trend; resistance overhead.

The US 30yr Treasury – More oversold. A break above the trend line allows for a long countertrend trade, tight stops.
The 10yr yield at 5.24%. The expected overbought level for the 10yr yield at 5.35%.

The US Dollar – The USD moves above the OB level. Showing lower highs.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESZ26, #MESZ26

Monthly –Monthly bar above the prior month. Trade pressures remain up,  Volumes closed the month of September as bullish.  The 7906 price remains the high.  The next target up is 8752.  A close below 7575 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar is above the prior week’s close.  Trade pressures remain up, but declining. Volumes are now neutral and lower than usual.  The next target down is the 7578 support level. A close below 7721 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Long.  The divergence signal in the OB/OS channel resulted in a break above the 7805 resistance line on 10/5; trades to 7897, a lower high. Then two days of backtest to the 7805 entry point. Now, in a move up to the resistance at 7872. Trade pressures are up, but declining,  Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 7907 which is also a resistance area. Pay attention to the lower high. The expected overbought level rises to 7850,

A close below the 7814 trend line would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 7652.

[OB/OS channel is rising.]
The VIX closes below 19, at 14.8 indicating market remains investable.
The Hedgeye.com VIX risk range is 14.58 – 16.71.

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Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is reset to $100,000 for the 2026 year.

These Navellier Top 5 portfolio stocks closed:
Down 35% for the 2022 Year.
    Up 17% for the 2023 Year.
    Up 42% for the 2024 Year.
    Up 48% for the 2025 Year

Portfolio stock values for 2026. 
The portfolio value rises to $208,000.
The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is up 108%.

The Hedgeye.com GDP nowcast has GDP growth slowing and inflation rising (Quad 3) in the 3rd quarter, re-accelerating in the 4th quarter with both growth and inflation rising and slowing once again in the 1st quarter of 2027.

6/26 – Now all cash for the summer; re-entering late July or early August, or re-entering if Navellier adds more defensive names.
7/25 – Quad shift (GDP and Inflation) to Quad 3 from a Quad 4 is likely in early August. Will look to re-enter positions.
8/2    – Re-entering the new Top 5 at the next open. CIEN, DINO, ENLT, MU, STX.
8/29  – replace Sinclair (DINO), Enlight Renewable Energy (ENLY), and Seagate Tech (STX) with Marathon Petro (MPC), PhillIps                 66 (PSX), and San Disk (SNDK) at the next open.
10/4  – Replace Ciena (CIEN) and Micron (MU) with Dell Tech (DELL) and Plains GP Holdings (PAGP), at the next open.

The S&P 500 YTD return is 13.84%

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXZ26

Weekly –  In the March 2026 uptrend. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – Flat. Three day’s of lower highs below the 102.30 pivot.  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain bullish.

At the 102.30 target. The expected overbought level rises to 102.258.

A close below 101.63 would signal lower. The expected oversold levels rise to 101.40.

[The OB/OS channel is rising.]

 

US30YR T-BOND_ USZ26

Weekly – In the March 2026 downtrend, breaking below lower channel bound.  Trade pressures are down.  Volumes remain bearish.

Daily  – Long. Remains in the downward channel, but now above the downtrend line. Looking for a backtest of this breakout to 102-14 and then a resumption of the move up. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone.  Volumes are neutral.

The new pivot low is 101-05. The next target down is 101-03. Oversold levels decline to 100-04.

The trade above 102-08 on 10/8 signaled higher. Overbought levels decline to 104-05.

[The OB/OS channel is declining.]

[10-9-26: 10yr yields decline to 5.25%. The yield overbought level declines to 5.35.]

OIl & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLX26

Weekly – In the new September 2026 uptrend. Trade pressures remain up, but declining to support. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – Flat. In the move down from 91.56 on 9/21.  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain bearish.

The next target down remains 83.92. The expected oversold level rises to 87.14.

A close above 92.67 would signal higher. The expected overbought levels decline to 93.03.

[OB/OS channel is narrowing.]
OVX (oil volatility) declines to 49.

(One of the larger components in the measure of inflation.The Hedgeye.com inflation nowcast now expects inflation rising thru the year end. Rises in the GDP are also expected.(Stagflation).)

 

NAT GAS_ NGX26

Weekly – In the August 2026 downtrend. Trade pressures are in the neutral zone.  Volumes are now bullish.

Daily – Flat, The breakout to the upside was succeessful, at 3.20. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 3.29 . The expected overbought level declines to 2.95.

A close below 2.93 would signal lower.  The expected oversold level rises to 3.29.

[OB/OS channel is widening.]

Natural gas is produced with oil production. Natural gas production as a ratio of oil production has been rising and amounted to 47% of the Permian Basin oil production in 2024.

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGZ26, MHGZ26

Weekly – In the October 2025 uptrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes remain neutral.

Daily –Flat. The move down from 6.71 on 9/28 was stopped out at 6.64. Look for a pullback into the mid 6’s to enter long. Trade pressures are down, but rising.  Volumes are now bullish.

The next target down is 6.63. The expected oversold levels rise to 6.43.

A close above 6.71 would signal higher. The expected overbought level holds at 6.76.

[OB/OS channel is narrowing.]

 

GOLD_ GCZ26, MGCZ26

Weekly – In the August 2026 uptrend, testing support.  Trade pressures remain down. Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Flat. The 4140 downside target was met mid-week. In a new move up from 4179 on 10/8. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 4257.  The expected overbought level declines to 4224.

A close below 4182 would signal lower.  The expected oversold level rises to 4100.

[OB/OS channel is narrowing.]  GVX @ 22 = investable. The 30 level would indicate Chop.

[1-10-26: Trading above the OB, expect resistance and possible selling.]

 

SILVER_ SIZ26

Weekly – In the July 2026 downtrend , testing support. Trade pressures remain down.  Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Flat. Below the 63.00 support level.  Trade pressures are down, but rising.  Volumes are neutral.

The next target down remains 54.27. The oversold levels decline to 55.

A close above 61.50 would signal higher.  Overbought levels decline to 60.

[OB/OS channel is declining.]

[10-10-26: Price at OS. Expect short covering. News driven/”pumped”.]

S&P 500 Futures

Market Summary:

Copper breaks down after the rally.  Gold continues lower. Silver fails at each rally attempt.

Crude watching the 88 support level. Natural Gas move up fails, and is below the  200 day MA.

The US 30yr Treasury – Oversold. A break above the downward channel boundary continues to be the objective, but no relief as the overbought levels continue to rise.
The 10yr yield at 5.27%. The expected overbought level for the 10yr yield at 5.40%.

The US Dollar – The USD moves even higher into OB.

_________________

S&P 500 Futures   #ESZ26, #MESZ26

Monthly –Monthly bar level with the prior month. Trade pressures remain up,  Volumes closed the month of September as bullish.  The 7906 price remains the high.  The next target up is 8752.  A close below 7575 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar is below the prior week’s close.  Trade pressures remain up, but declining. Volumes are now bearish.  The next target down is the 7600 support level. A close below 7657 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat.  At the 7805 resistance line, lower highs Trade pressures are up,  Volumes are bullish.

A close above 7805 would confirm signal higher to 7907. The expected overbought level declines to 7789 (likely resistance),

A close below 7728 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 7605. (important divergence)

[OB/OS channel is narrowing.]
The VIX closes below 19, at 15.3 indicating market remains investable.
The Hedgeye.com VIX risk range is 14.00 – 17.11.

__________________

Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is reset to $100,000 for the 2026 year.

These Navellier Top 5 portfolio stocks closed:
Down 35% for the 2022 Year.
    Up 17% for the 2023 Year.
    Up 42% for the 2024 Year.
    Up 48% for the 2025 Year

Portfolio stock values for 2026. 
The portfolio value rises to $203,000.
The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is up 103%.

The Hedgeye.com GDP nowcast has GDP growth slowing and inflation rising (Quad 3) in the 3rd quarter, re-accelerating in the 4th quarter with both growth and inflation rising and slowing once again in the 1st quarter of 2027.

6/26 – Now all cash for the summer; re-entering late July or early August, or re-entering if Navellier adds more defensive names.
7/25 – Quad shift (GDP and Inflation) to Quad 3 from a Quad 4 is likely in early August. Will look to re-enter positions.
8/2    – Re-entering the new Top 5 at the next open. CIEN, DINO, ENLT, MU, STX.
8/29  – replace Sinclair (DINO), Enlight Renewable Energy (ENLY), and Seagate Tech (STX) with Marathon Petro (MPC), PhillIps                 66 (PSX), and San Disk (SNDK) at the next open.
10/4  – Replace Ciena (CIEN) and Micron (MU) with Dell Tech (DELL) and Plains GP Holdings (PAGP), at the next open.

The S&P 500 YTD return is 11.99%

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXZ26

Weekly –  In the March 2026 uptrend. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – Flat. A three day pause in the move up and then resumes on 9/28.  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bullish.

At the 101.99 target. The expected overbought level rises to 102.28.

A close below 101.05 would signal lower. The expected oversold levels rise to 101.00.

[The OB/OS channel is rising.]

 

US30YR T-BOND_ USZ26

Weekly – In the March 2026 downtrend, breaking below lower channel bound.  Trade pressures are down.  Volumes remain bearish.

Daily  – Flat. Remains in the downward channel. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are bearish.

The new pivot low is 101-29. The next target down is a retest of that pivot. Oversold levels decline to 101-04.

A close above 103-10 would signal higher. Overbought levels decline to 104-29.

[The OB/OS channel is declining.]

[10-4-26: 10yr yields rise to 5.27%. The yield overbought level rises to 5.40.]

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLX26

Weekly – In the new September 2026 uptrend. Trade pressures remain up, but declining. Volumes remain neutral.

Daily – Flat. In the move down from 91.56 on 9/21.  Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone.  Volumes remain bearish.

The next target down is 83.92. The expected oversold level declines to 87.12.

A close above 94.84 would signal higher. The expected overbought levels decline to 94.99.

[OB/OS channel is declining.]
OVX (oil volatility) declines to 51.

(One of the larger components in the measure of inflation.The Hedgeye.com inflation nowcast now expects inflation rising thru the year end. Rises in the GDP are also expected.(Stagflation).)

 

NAT GAS_ NGX26

Weekly – In the August 2026 downtrend. Trade pressures are declining.  Volumes are now bearish.

Daily – Flat, The breakout to the upside failed but now attempting again from a lower level. Trade pressures are down, but turning up.  Volumes are bearish.

A close above 3.04 would signal higher. The expected overbought level declines to 3.07.

A close below 2.93 would signal lower.  The expected oversold level declines to 2.80.

[OB/OS channel is declining.]

Natural gas is produced with oil production. Natural gas production as a ratio of oil production has been rising and amounted to 47% of the Permian Basin oil production in 2024.

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGZ26, MHGZ26

Weekly – In the October 2025 uptrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neitral.

Daily –Short. In the move down from 6.71 on 9/28. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 6.30 and the 200 day MA. The expected oversold levels decline to 6.38.

A close above 6.64 would signal higher. The expected overbought level declines to 6.76.

[OB/OS channel is declining.]

[10-4-26 lower the SL to 6.64.]
[10-5-26: Stoppedout at 6.64.]

 

GOLD_ GCZ26, MGCZ26

Weekly – In the August 2026 uptrend, testing support.  Trade pressures down. Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Flat. The pullback is creating a bull flag. testing support, but still higher lows. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 4140. The expected oversold level declines to 4054.

A close above 4227 would signal higher.  The expected overbought level declines to 4297.

[OB/OS channel is declining.]  GVX @ 23 = investable. The 30 level would indicate Chop.

 

SILVER_ SIZ26

Weekly – In the June 2026 downtrend. Trade pressures remain down.  Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Flat. Breaks below the 63.00 support level.  Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 54.27. The oversold levels decline to 58.

A close above 62.13 would signal higher.  Overbought levels decline to 64.

[OB/OS channel is declining.]

Navellier Top 5 Stocks for October


High-Growth Investments

Dell Technologies, Inc.

Dell Technologies, Inc. (DELL) is one of the biggest technology companies in the world. We added it to the Growth Investor Buy List last month to profit from the data center boom. Dell Technologies supplies key infrastructure to ensure that GPUs are packaged correctly to keep data centers running smoothly.

The company’s PowerEdge rack servers can be equipped with NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) GPUs to handle AI training models. Dell also offers storage platforms, including PowerStore, PowerMax and PowerScale, for everything from everyday storage to demanding AI workloads.

And to better connect servers and storage in a data center, Dell Technologies offers networking solutions. Its PowerSwitch portfolio ensures that data is transferred properly from the servers that create and process data to the storage systems that will hold the data.

Based on the company’s latest results, Dell Technologies has experienced persistent demand for its data center solutions. The company’s backlog stands at an impressive $95 billion, and it received orders totaling $60.9 billion for AI servers in the latest quarter.

For its second quarter in fiscal year 2027, revenue jumped 58% year-over-year to a record $47.0 billion, and adjusted earnings surged 203% year-over-year to $7.04 per share. The consensus estimate called for revenue of $4.45 billion and adjusted earnings of $4.92 per share.

Following the better-than-expected quarterly results, analysts have upped third-quarter earnings estimates by 49.4% in the past month alone. Third-quarter earnings are now forecast to increase 153.3% year-over-year to $6.56 per share. As you know, positive analyst revisions typically precede future earnings surprises. DELL is an Aggressive buy below $739.

SOM Technicals:

10-2-26: Closed at 562.52. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 575.40. A close below 536 would signal lower.

1-9-26: Closed at 585.77. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are buiilish. The next target up is 616.33. A close below 564.15 would signal lower.

 

Marathon Petroleum Corporation

As we discussed earlier, there’s a global shortage of refined products, especially diesel, and that’s pushing prices higher. With diesel prices at record highs and crude oil around $100 per barrel, refining margins have surged – and refiners are making money hand over fist.

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is one of them. The company operates 13 refineries that can process about three million barrels of crude oil per day. In the second quarter, Marathon Petroleum refined 2.9 million barrels of crude oil per day, or about 88 million barrels in the quarter. Its refining margin rose to $36.33 per barrel.

As a result, Marathon Petroleum’s earnings surged 325% year-over-year to $5.1 billion, or $17.73 per share, and revenue jumped 53.5% year-over-year to $52.34 billion. The analyst community only expected earnings of $13.95 per share and revenue of $41.44 billion.

With the diesel shortage expected to continue into 2027 and refining margins to remain elevated, Marathon Petroleum should continue to achieve blowout quarterly results.

For the third quarter, earnings are forecast to soar 638.5% year-over-year to $22.23 per share. Analysts have also increased earnings estimates by an incredible 136.2% in the past three months, which bodes well for a fourth-straight quarterly earnings surprise. MPC is a Conservative buy below $428.

SOM Technicals:

2-24-23: Closed at 193.74. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are now neutral. the next target down is 188.91.

3-4-23: Closed at 196.50. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are now bullish. The next target up is 201.39.

3-11-23: Closed at 195.71. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bullish. The next target down is the 188.91 short entry.

3-17-23: Closed at 206.88. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is the 209.50 prior high.

3-24-23: Closed at 204.48. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are  bullish. The next target down is 195.45.

3-31-23: Closed at 210.09. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 211.45.

4-14-23: Closed at 214.55. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are bullish. At resistance. The next target down is 203.62 with a stop at 217.67.

4-22-23: Closed at 213.00. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bullish. The next target down is 203.62.

8-29-26: Closed at 362.12. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 387.09. A close below 357.73 would signal lower.

9-5-26: Closed at 390.99. Trade pressures are up but turning down. The next target up is 398.52. A close below 376.59 would signal lower.

9-13-26: Closed at 396.06. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are bearish. The next target up is 409.12. A close below 386.52 would signal lower.

9-18-26: Closed at 425.30. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 438.15. A close below 382.60 would signal lower.

9-26-26: Closed at 393.79. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 375.78. A close above 406.83 would signal higher.

10-2-26: Closed at 422.33. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 443.29. A close below 402.90 would signal lower.

10-9-26: Closed at 455.03. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 437.69. A close above 468.33 would signal higher.

 

Phillips 66

Phillips 66 (PSX), like Marathon Petroleum, is benefiting from the global diesel shortage, higher product prices and strong refining margins.

Phillips 66 is a bit smaller than Marathon Petroleum. The company operates 12 refineries in the U.S. that can process nearly two million barrels of crude oil per day. Its refining margin stood at $24.08 per barrel in the second quarter.

This year, though, Phillips 66 is expanding its refining business. The company recently acquired the remaining 50% stake in WRB Refining LP, which gave it full ownership of the Wood River refinery in Illinois and the Borger refinery in Texas. It also plans to buy Lindsey Oil Refinery in England to expand in the U.K.

I should add that refining isn’t Phillips 66’s only business. The company also operates pipelines and terminals, has a chemicals business, owns 7,450 retail locations and operates commercial transportation and a renewable fuels focus.

Thanks to strong demand in each of its businesses, Phillips 66 continues to add to its top and bottom lines. Third-quarter earnings are currently forecast to increase 321.8% year-over-year to $10.63 per share. Earnings estimates have also been revised 71% higher in the past three months, so a quarterly earnings surprise is likely. PSX is a Conservative buy below $276.

SOM Technicals:

8-29-26: Closed at 244.01. Trade pressures are down into the nmeutral zone but rising. Volumes are neutral. The next taeget up is 249.97.

9-5-26: Closed at 255.09. Trade pressures are up but turning over. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 260.57. A close below 247.08 would signal lower.

9-13-26: Closed at 259.96. Trade pressures are up but turning down. Volumes are bearish. The next target up is 265.43. A close below 255.54 would signal lower.

9-18-26: Closed at 273.55. Trade pressures are up. volumes are bullish. The next target up is 277.12. A close below 262.74. would signal lower.

9-26-26: Closed at 255.75. Trade pressures are down, but turning up. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 238.46. A close above 263.45 would signal higher.

10-2-26: Closed at 264.58. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 267.71. A close below 255.86 would signal lower.

10-9-26: Closed at 278.18. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bearish. The next taret down is 268.89. A closae above 285.23 wuld signal higher.

 

Plains GP Holdings, L.P.

Plains GP Holdings, L.P. (PAGP) is the first of our dividend stocks to make the Top Stocks list since we merged our two Buy Lists. And the reason is simple: The company is benefiting from higher energy prices and persistent demand.

You may recall that Plains GP Holdings is a holding company for Plains All American Pipeline (PAA), which operates pipelines, gathering systems and storage terminals for crude oil and natural gas in North America. PAA has more than 20,000 miles of pipeline and gathering systems and can store about 76 million barrels.

Essentially, Plains GP Holdings gives us indirect ownership in PAA – and the ability to profit from a midstream energy company that’s thriving amidst higher energy prices and persistent demand.

In the second quarter, Plains GP Holdings reported that earnings rose 12% year-over-year to $348 million, or $0.41 per share. Revenue came in at $17.69 billion.

The strength of its business also ensures that Plain GP Holdings continues to reward its shareholders. The company has paid a dividend for 50 straight quarters. Most recently, Plains GP Holdings paid a dividend of $0.4175 on August 14. The stock has a 6.1% dividend yield. PAGP is a Conservative buy below $25.

SOM Technicals:
10-2-26: Closed at 26.06. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bullish. The next target down is 25.30. A close above 26.64 would signal higher.
10-9-26: Closed at 26.62. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next targetup is 27.66. A close below 26.17 would signal lower.

 

SanDisk Corporation

The AI data center boom has been a boon for SanDisk Corporation (SNDK).

The company is primarily focused on NAND/flash memory. You may recall that NAND-based solid-state drives (SSDs) are faster than traditional hard drives and can store more data in a smaller space. That makes them vital to data centers.

So, it’s not too surprising that SanDisk’s revenue from data centers surged 1,500% from $325 million in fiscal year 2024 to $5.2 billion in fiscal year 2026. The company’s total revenue in fiscal year 2026 was also impressive, soaring 175% year-over-year to $20.2 billion.

Looking ahead, SanDisk and the analyst community remain optimistic.

For its first quarter in fiscal year 2027, SanDisk expects total revenue between $10.3 billion and $10.8 billion, or 345.9% to 367.5% year-over-year revenue growth. Adjusted earnings per share are forecast to be between $44 and $46, or 3,506.6% to 3,670% year-over-year earnings growth.

Analysts have also raised earnings estimates by 10% in the past three months, so a fifth-straight quarterly earnings surprise is likely. SNDK is an Aggressive buy below $2,684.

SOM Technicals:

8-29-26: Closed at 1483.42. Trade pressures are down. Volume are bearish. The next target down is 1416.99. A close above 1528.05 would signal higher.

9-5-26: Closed at 1734.01. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 1831.46. A close below 1548.96 would signal lower.

9-13-26: Closed at 1631.99. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 1553.12. A close above 1723.02 would signal higher.

9-18-26: Closed at 1798.00. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 1827.99. A close below 1469.28 would signal lower.

9-26-26: Closed at 1777.80. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are bullish. the next target down is 1703.78. A close above 1852.19 would signal higher.

10-2-26: Closed at 1717.66. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 1570. A close above 1809 would signal higher.

10-9-26: Closed at 1579.00. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 1231.38. A close above 1680.36 would signal higher.