USD(DX)_ the China Indices up, European Indices up. Dollar flows to the Global Large Caps benefiting the US markets also.

Weekly – Trade pressures are above zero, but trending down. Volume has turned to neutral from bullish.

Daily – in the short trade from 99.34 and has met the first target of 96.74 at the confluence of the 25×5 moving average. Now experiencing a upward retracement.

The next target down is 94.25.

30yr T-BONDS_

Weekly – The short trade was triggered five weeks ago,successfully traded down to the first target. Now in a retracement up from that target. Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish again.

Daily – In the retracement trade up from 157-30. The next target up is 167-29. Trade pressures are up but turning down. Volume is bearish.

a close below 162-27 would signal a resumption of the move down.

USD(DX)_ The dollar is governing most of the market moves.

Weekly – last week traded to the 100.785 high. Upward trade pressures had turned down, and continue downward this week. Price failed after the FED meeting and spiked down to the 95 target. Volume remains bullish.

Daily – remains in the short trade from 99.243. The 94.250 target was almost reached in the spike down.  Trade pressures are down. Volume is neutral.

a trade back above 97.74 would signal higher.

30yr TBONDS_ Once the dollar is purchased by international investors then it gets invested in something. This trade went long a week before the FED said they would not raise rates this next quarter.

Weekly – The bonds traded by the numbers. the short entry went to the 154-22 downside target. the retracement long was triggered at 162-18. Trade pressures are turning up. Volume turns neutral from bearish.

Daily – In the long trade from 157-30 reaching the first 162-29 target. The next target up is 167-29. Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish.

a close below 161-12 would signal lower.

EURO futures_ the reverse of the dollar moves. The neutral volume suggest short covering.

Weekly – has traded down to the 1.0423 level. Trade pressures are down. Volume turned bullish this last week. A weekly Close above 1.0922 would confirm a daily move up.

Daily – The retracement move up from the 1.0576 long entry has quickly reached the 1.0910 target and retraced. A second cycle long was triggered at 1.0765 with an 1.180 target. Both these trades are counter trend trades inside the longer trend short trade. The Trade pressures are turning up. Volume is neutral from bearish.

Watch the 1.0623 lows of thursday’s down bar. Use that as a stop.

 

USD(DX)_  The prospect of the FED raising interest rates will make the dollar more attractive vis a vis other currencies.

Weekly  – Big bullish volume this last week. Pushed thru the extended 2011 extended target of 99.71. The long cycle from 2006 projects a 105.30 target. Trade pressures are up , but showing some divergences. Volume, while very high, is looking toppy.

Daily – 101.81 is the next target up. Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish from last weeks bearish.

Will need a close below 99.24 to signal lower.

30yr TBONDS_  waiting for “Patient”.

Weekly – the 166-30 target has stopped the up-move and the trade down thru the short entry at 162-18 has met the first target at 154-22. Trade pressures are positive but trending down. Volume is bearish ofr these last two weeks.

Daily – in the retracement trade up after meeting the first target down. Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish. The next target up is 162-29.

a new short leg would start with a close below 157-26.

EURO Futures_ the inverse of the USD. As the QE progresses, the expectation that parity with the dollar is a goal of the ECB rise.

Weekly – the consolidation around the 1.114 target gave way to a new leg down. The 1.0428 target is almost met. Trade pressures are down but very extended. Volume is bearish for three weeks.

Daily – in the move down from 1.1182. Trade pressures are down and extended. Volume is bearish. Went thru the 1.0605 with no effort. The next target down is 1.0027.

Need a close above 1.0765 for a new long entry

USD(Dx)_  European QE lowers their rates and makes the US dollar more attractive.

Weekly – Trade pressures are still up but show signs of turning down. Volume is bullish.

Daily – Still long from the 95.18 long entry price. The 100.88 is the full move target, (almost there.)

30yr TBONDS_

Weekly –  has moved to the target and immediately retraced. Trade pressures are down. Volume  is bearish.

Daily – The Daily short from 161-27 was triggered on March 2nd and quickly went to the 155-01 multiple target. Now a retracement trade is long from the 157-30 entry price with a 162-29 upside target. Trade pressures are up. Volume is neutral.

A reversal down thru the 157-26 would signal a new leg down.

 

USD (DX)_ Consolidating around the highs. An indicator of international money flows.

Weekly – Trade pressures are up and extended. Volume is bullish after weeks of neutral (perhaps distribution). The weekly short entry at 94.22 has acted as support.

Daily – 94.33 was the short entry price. After the intial move down in early Feb, bullish volume came in and price has traded around the entry level. But now Volume has turned neutral again. Trade pressures are extended up, so look for a pullback and perhaps a new move down. The next target down is 91.37.

the Stop remains the 95.85 pivot high.

30yr T-BONDS_ everyone is looking for higher rates this year. (roll to the june contract. creates new levels.)

Weekly – the recent high pivot is 167-18. The weekly trade is short from 162-23 with a 154-27 target. Trade pressures are up but rolling over. Volume is bullish changing from the prior weeks bearish.

Daily – The daily trade has completed the retracement move down to the 150-26 target. The expected retracement up is now occurring. a close above 162-18 would signal a resumption of the move up. Trade pressures are up, but extended. volume is bullish.

The hourly is setup for a continued move up.

EURO_ is hard down, reflecting the opposite of the dollar and the 30yr. Daily pressures are down after a retracement up to test the long entry at 1.1545. No long trade resulted, so now down to test the 1.1102 lows.

USD (DX)_
Weekly – the neutral volume of the last four weeks and the trade pressures rolling over warn of a decline. The weekly short entry is 94.22, but price has not closed below that level.

Daily – in the short trade. Price is trading around the 94.32 short entry. the next target down is 91.87. But no follow thru. Trade pressures are neutral. Volume is bearish.

Stops at the 95.05 highs.

30YR T-BONDS_
Weekly – In the short trade from the 147-14 weekly entry to the next target of 140-06. Trade pressures are turning down. Weekly volume is bearish.

Daily – in the short trade and at the 144-04 target. Expect consolidation or retracement here. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volume is bearish.

Need a close above 146-28 to signal higher.

USD (DX)_ The direction of the dollar affect almost all markets.

Weekly – Trade pressures remain up. But volume has turned neutral in these last three weeks, perhaps signaling some distribution. A close below 94.22 would signal a change lower.

Daily  – is in the short trade after a close below 94.33. The next target down is 91.85. Stops at the highs. Trade pressures are down. Volume has been bearish for two days.

30 YR T-BONDS_ Interest rates are supporting the higher PE’s of the various market sectors.  A change will cause a market reset.

Weekly – the weekly short entry has been met and confirms the daily trade. Trade pressures are still up but turning down. Volume has turned bearish these last two weeks.  The weekly target down is 140-08.

Daily – in the short trade from 150-01 to the first target of 147-03. At that target. Next target down is 144-04. Trade pressures are down. Volume is bearish.

A close above 148-19 would signal higher.

USD (DX)_ The geopolitical barometer has met all the weekly upside targets as the flow of funds come into the US markets.

Weekly – Trade pressures are up, but volume has changed from bullish to neutral. A signal of a possible change.  The weekly shows a pullback for the highs.

Daily – Met the 96.04 upside target. The daily is now in a short trade from 94.32. The next target down is 91.37.  Trade pressures are neutral. Volume turned bullish from the prior weeks bearish.  The old highs are the stops.

30YR T-BONDS_ as the funds flow into the dollar, the dollars purchased are then used to buy many things , but also Treasuries.

Weekly  –  Trade pressures are up but declining. Volume has had the first week of bearish volume in months.  A short signal would occur with a close below 147-14.

Daily – The trade has been short for the 150-01 entry price. the next target down is 147-03 and it was reached Friday last week. Then the next target down is 144-04.

need a close above 149-31 to signal a new move up.

EURO_

Weekly – Trade pressures are extended down. Volume has turned neutral from bearish.

Daily – Trade pressures are down. Volume is bullish. The trade is flat while consolidating around the 1.1410 downside target. the long entry is 1.1545. with a 1.2262 target.

USD (DX)_ money flows are in the direction of the dollar and away from the other currencies.

Weekly – trading and consolidating above the 94.66 target. Trading pressures are up. Volume is showing neutral for the first time in weeks.  A close below 94.22 could signal lower.

Daily – The same inflows have pushed the dollar to a high of 95.85, very close to the 96.04 target. the trade pressures are neutral. Volume is bullish. The short entry is a close below 94.33.

30YR T-BONDS_ the weekly has some upside target at 160-20 and 164-10, but that would imply some very low yields? And a severe flow out of other asset classes.

Weekly – consolidating above the 150-14 target. Trade pressures are up. volume is bullish. a close below 147-14 would signal a new short.

Daily – Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish. Have reached the 151-12 target. should have some consolidation here. A close below 150-01 would signal a new short entry with a downside target at 147-03.

USD (DX)_ can look at both the rise in the dollar and the decline in oil, they mirror each other. So perhaps when one stops the other does also.  the rising dollar makes the US exporters less competitive.  45 percent of the sales from the S&P 500 companies comes from outside the US. so they are “exporters”.

Weekly – the 94.66 target has been met with a large move thru it this last week. A very extended move up. Clearly a flight to the US markets.  A close below 94.22 could signal the beginning of a sell off.

Daily – Price has consolidated above the 91.72 target over the last two weeks and then began a big move up last week amid the European QE news. the next target up is 96.04. Trade pressures are down. Volume is bearish. Hard to see the DX going much higher. A move down thru the 94.25 level could see the start of a retracement.

30YR TBonds_ and of course if you are going to buy dollars, then they have to go somewhere; and until some thing better comes along the Treasury bills and bonds seem to be the market of choice.

Weekly – at the 150-14 target. The next target higher is 154-18. Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish.

Daily – has come with in 2 ticks of the 151-12 target at 151-10 high on Friday week. Then the short entry at 149-15 was triggered with a downside target of 146-17. Trade pressures are down and Volume is neutral. Profiting , or a new move down?

EURO Futures (EC)_
weekly – touched the 1.114 down side target. Trade pressures are down. Volume is bearish. Next weekly target is .9365.

Daily – the daily trade has been down from 1.2550. Traded thru the 1.1410 target. the next target down is 1.0488.

Need a trade close above 1.1562 to start a retracement up.to the breakdown at 1.2279.