Category: Currencies

US $$’s

USD(DX)_  the dollar is controlling the metals and the energies.

Weekly – Traded down to the 25×5 MA which has acted as support. Trade pressures are down. Volume has turned bullish from bearish. Expecting the 90 area to be a weekly downside target.

Daily – Has met the 94.25 downside target, traded down thru it for a week then turned higher to trigger a long entry at 94.78. The next target up is 97.43. Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish and has confirmation.

move stops to the entry price at 94.78.

30yr T-BONDS_

Weekly – Consolidating at the 153-30 downside target. Next weekly target down is 147. Trade pressures are down. Volume has changed from bullish to bearish.

Daily – after the 10 pt move down, the daily has consolidated around the 153-30. Now in a long retracement trade triggered at 153-27. The next target up is 158-07. Trade pressures are still down but trending upward. volume is bullish. Volatility is high, so will move the stop to break-even as soon as possible.

stops at the 151-04 lows.

US $$’s

USD(DX)_

Weekly – continuing the break down to the 90 area. Trade pressures moved into the negative. Volume has been bearish for five weeks with one neutral day in that time period.

Daily – The trade is down. The next target is 90.52. Volume is bearish. Trade pressures are down but extended and showing some divergence.

A close above 94.78 would signal higher.

30yr T-BONDS_ The big bond funds are on the CNBC’s talking down the bond prices.

Weekly – Trade pressures are down and negative. Volume however has been bullish for two weeks.  (maybe short covering). All expected targets have been met. The next weekly target down is 147.

Daily – An attempt at a rally triggered a long entry at 155-25 but was immediately stopped out at 153-29. A new long entry is triggered at 153-27 with a 158-07 target.

Stops at 151-04.

US $$’s

USD(DX)_

Weekly – Trade pressures have declined to the point where they may cross to negative. Volume rmains bearish. Multiple targets in the 90-91 area,

Daily – have completed the move down to the 94.25 target. Trade pressures are down but fully extended. Volume is bearish. Expect consolidation.

A close above 95.27 would signal higher.

EURO_ A counterpart to the $USD. Weekend talks with the Greeks create event risk.

Weekly – Trade pressures are still down but trending up. Volume is bullish for these last two weeks. The 1.1500 pivot is a likely target.

Daily – Trade is flat after meeting the 1.1237 target. The next target up is 1.1485. Trade pressures are up but extended. Volume is neutral from the prior day’s bearish.

A trade closing below 1.1145 would signal lower with a 1.0736 target.

30yr T-BONDS_

Weekly –  Traded thru the 154-01  weekly target. Trade pressures are still up but trending down; perhaps to negative soon. Volume is bullish for the week.

Daily – Trade pressure are down. volume is bullish. The short trade from 163-15 had trade thru all downside targets and down thru the 155-01 prior pivot. The break of that pivot completed the move down to the 153-30 target. the market spiked down thru that target and then reversed to close higher.

A very nice 10 point trade!

The new long entry has also been triggered at 155-23. The next target up 160-03.

 

US $$’s

USD(DX)_

Weekly –  Trade pressures turned down and are about to cross into negative territory. Volume has turned bearish from last week’s neutral.

Daily – Trade pressures are down. Volume is neutral as some profit taking occurs as the 94.25 downside target is met. The next target down is 90.52.

A close above 95.76 could restart the dollar run.

30yr T-BONDS_

Weekly – Two weeks of downside. Trade pressures are still positive but trending down. Volume is bearish again after last weeks neutral volume.

Daily – still in the move down from the short entry of 163-16. Have traded thru the 158-21 target. The next target down is 155-01.

A close above 160-05 would signal a new move up.

 

US $$

USD(DX)_ reacting to the slowing economy in the US and the turmoil in the Euro-zone and its currency. The Greek financial situation is watched closely.

Weekly – In consolidation with Volume moving from neutral to bearish and back to neutral over these last three weeks. Trade pressures are still up but trending lower. Bias is down.

Daily – In the short trade from 99.21; met the 97.49 target. The next target down is 95.80. Trade pressures are down. Volume is bearish.

Stops at 98.31.

30yr T-BONDS_

Weekly – Trade pressures are up. Volume is neutral for thee weeks. In consolidation after reaching the 166-30 target.

Daily – Short from 163-29.  The next target down is 160-13. Trade pressures are down . Volume is bearish for the last four days.

US $$

USD(DX)_ Market pundits talking up a dollar rally, but technicals say no.

Weekly – Trade pressures are up but declining. Volume has turned bearish from last week’s neutral. a breakdown below 96.73 would confirm the move down.

Daily – the new move was signaled at 99.21. The first target down was met on Friday at 97.51 The next target down is 95.80.

Stops at the 100.27 high pivot.

30Yr TBONDS_ struggling with direction.

Weekly – Trade pressures are up. Volume is neutral for two weeks in a row. Bias is to the downside.

Daily – No trade.  Trade pressures are down. Volume is bullish. In the channel between 162-08 and 166-21. A breakout will show direction.

Euro Futures [closed-targets met]

Euro – June futures contract_

Weekly – Trading between 1.043 and the weekly long entry confirmation of 1.092. Trade pressures are still negative but rising. Volume is bearish. a break of the lows would set up a .9745 downside weekly target.

Daily – Two long trade cycles working. One is long from 1.0765. the other shorter cycle long from 1.0663 this last week, resulting in targets of 1.0860 and 1.1097.

Trade pressures are down but rising. Volume is bullish for four days of last week.

Stops at 1.0529.

[5/3 update: closed the trade at the 1.1262 target.]

US $$

USD (DX)_

Weekly – Trade pressures are up. Volume remains neutral. The confirmation of the short was touched but not set.

Daily – The daily trade is short from 99.26. the first target was tested three times. Then last week a sharp rally took a retracement up to the stops. The next target down is 96.49 then 94.20.

Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish.

100.19 would stop out the short trade.

30YR TBONDS_

Weekly – Rallied up to the old 166-30 target. Stopped there and pulled back. Trade pressures are up. Volume has turned to neutral from bullish.

Daily – The trade is down. Trade pressures are down. Volume is bearish. The short entry of 163*21 sets up the next target down of 158-25.

Stops at the 166-21 pivot.

Euro $$

The Greek refinance situation and the prospect of US interest rates rising continue downward pressure on the Euro. While a better European economy would counter those expectations somewhat; the continued buying of sovereign debt by the ECB seems to be the more significant pressure at the moment.

Weekly – closed above a Buy confirmation the week before but a sharp sell off last week seems to negate that. Trade pressures remain down but tuning up. Volume closed bearish.

Daily – the Trade is still long from the long entry of 1.0762. The attempt to reach the first upside target of 1.1100 failed and new pullback began. Trade pressures are down. Volume is bearish.

The short cycle has signaled a short trade at 1.0796. The next target down is 1.0385 with a full move down to .9975 possible.

US $$

USD(DX)_

Weekly – Consolidating after the long run up from the 80’s. Trade pressures are up but showing some downward pressure. Volume is neutral.

Daily – The trade is short. The next target down is 94.25. Trade pressures are down. Volume is bearish.

98.14 is the stop price.

30yr T-BONDS_

Weekly – retracing upward after a sharp move down to a short trade target. Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish.

Daily –  The trade is flat but a short entry is very close at 163-21. The next target down would be 158-25. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volume is Neutral.

a trade close above 164-27 would be a stop and a possible reversal to a long position.