Gold moves down overnight.

Copper moves up.

Crude continues a move higher.

S&P futures are also up.

Market Pressures_

Copper in the uptrend. Gold setting up for a new short.

Crude in a long trade. Nat Gas hard down.

The US 30 yr treasuries are consolidating at contract highs.

The US Dollar futures remain in a downtrend.

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S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – 1896 remains the short confirmation level. Price has moved up above that level. Trade pressures are down. Volume closed bullish at the January month end.

Weekly – In the downtrend. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are neutral.

Daily – Long from the 1872 entry price. Trade pressures are up but extended. Volumes remain bullish.
The next profit target up is 1938.

Stops are at the entry price, 1872.

[2-22-16: at the 1938 target, raise stops to 1898.]
[2-24-16: stopped out at 1898]

Market Pressures_

Gold has rallied to turn the trend to up. Copper is testing some downside levels.

Crude experiences some short covering. Nat Gas still looks lower.

The sharp rally in the US T-Bond may set up a new short.

The US Dollar continues the move down.

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S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – Need a few more days on the upside to get above the short confirmation level. Trade pressures are down. Volume closed bullish in January.

Weekly – The 1814 level has now been tested for the third time. Trade pressures are down. Volumes have changed from neutral to bearish.

Daily – Flat. Approaching the long entry price of 1872 once again. Trade pressures are down. Volumes have changed from bearish to neutral indicating some short covering.

 

Market Pressures_

Copper rallied but is now in a pullback.

Gold continues higher. Silver can’t decide to participate.

Crude is in congestion. Natural Gas is signalling lower.

The US 30yr TBonds are at highs and may be ready for a new short signal.

The US Dollar has moved lower.

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S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – January did not close below a short confirmation level, but February is trying to do just that. Trade pressures are down. Volume’s monthly close was bullish.

Weekly – After a rally of two weeks this last was a pullback. The 1814 support level is nearby. This rally was a rally in the longer term downtrend. Trade pressures remain down. Volumes changed from bullish to neutral.

Daily – Flat. Closed below the short entry price of 1876. Trade pressures are in the neutral zone. Volumes have changed from bullish to bearish.

The hourly chart is oversold, so wait for the Monday trading. The next target down is 1824 and then 1772, which is also the Oct’14 low.

Market Pressures_

Copper remains the long trade. Gold trade has closed. Silver in a pullback.

The Crude Oil long trade was stopped out. Nat Gas looks higher.

The Japanese negative rates have sent trades to the US 30yr TBond.

The US Dollar futures are also stronger.

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S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – This rally takes away the likelihood of a short confirmation close. Trade pressures are neutral pointing down. Volume closed the December month as bearish, but January is shaping up to be bullish.

Weekly – Trend remains down. Support has been confirmed at 1814. Trade pressure are down.Volumes are bullish.

Daily –  Long. In the long trade from the 1872 long entry price. Following up with reasonable stops. Trade pressures are still down but rising; Near neutral now. Volumes have changed to bullish.

The next profit target up is 1982. Stops at the 1872 entry price.

[Feb 3, 2016: stopped out at breakeven.]

Market Pressures_

Copper showing higher. Gold has been in a long trade.
Silver flat, but looking for a long entry.

Crude Oil is in a new long trade. Nat Gas is signaling lower.

The US 30yr T-Bond is near recent highs. This FED week may generate a move.

The US Dollar is still in the move up. Watch the 25×5 moving average for support.

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S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – Sitting on the short confirmation level of 1896. Trade pressures remain neutral. Volumes closed in bearish territory at the end of December.

Weekly – Retested the 1807 short target level. Trade pressures remain down. Volumes have changed from bearish to bullish.

Daily – Long. The intraday spike down to 1804 last week set the the new long entry at 1872. This entry level was triggered on Friday. The Monday pullback gave room for price improvement.  The next target up is 1982. Trade pressures are down, but rising. Volumes are bullish.

Stops are at 1840.

[Jan 28, raise stops to 1846]

[Friday Jan 29, raise stops to break even – 1872]

Market Pressures_

Copper continues the move down to the 1.88 levels. Very oversold.

Precious metals are in a pullback.

Crude oil is in the well publicized free-fall. There are multiple targets nearby suggesting consolidation.

The long natural gas trade stopped and is pulling back.

30 yr Treasury bond futures have moved up sharply to the 160 area.

The US Dollar seems to lose momentum.

Be Alert.

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S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – The Monthly is below the monthly confirmation of a short. Will see if closes there. Trade pressures are neutral. Volumes are bearish.

Weekly – Short since the close below 2038 in early November ’15. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Flat. The short entry for this move was 2048; which was missed. Now at the 1890 extended profit target. Expect consolidation here. Trade pressures are extended down. Volumes are mixed bullish to bearish, closing bearish.

Need a close above 1908 to signal a retracement higher.

Market Pressures_

Copper now looks lower with the uncertainty in China.

Gold moved up sharply on the Yuan devaluation, Silver did not participate.

Crude was down on worries of a global slowdown, but Natural gas continued a steady move up.

Money flowed into the US Treasuries causing a rise in bond prices.

The US Dollar rose as funds moved out of international markets.

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S&P 500 Futures – Last week’s suggestion to wait for volumes had us on the sidelines for this weeks move.

Monthly – Now approaching the 1896 level which if closed below would be additional confirmation of a bearish move. Trade pressures are down. Volumes closed the December month as bearish.

Weekly – Has been in the bearish trade since the close below 2039 in the summer of 2015 and the many failures to break above the new long entry confirmation of 2087. Trade pressures are just turning down. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – The 2049 pivot signaled a new move down on Monday, Jan 4th. The first profit target of 2004 was met that same day. The next target down of 1961 was met the next day. 1890 is the next target down. Trade pressure are down hard but looking over-bought. Volumes are bearish.

Need a close of almost 60 points up to get above the Friday high of 1967; which then could signal a new move up.

During the 2015 calendar year the South Ocean Management trade levels recorded 64 virtual trade setups.

Following the trade management described in the respective posts, 12 of those virtual trades would have resulted in losses and 14 would be stopped out at a break-even; a total of 26 trades with a loss or no gain.

38 gains from 64 trades. That should be a respectable win rate for any trader.

 

Market Pressures_

The Copper trade is flat looking for a new entry.

Gold and Silver are pulling back.

Crude is testing the lows again.

Natural Gas in a long trade, but very near a profit target.

The US 30 YR Treasury is in a short trade.

The US Dollar is pressing lower.

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S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – The month tried to move above the years highs but could not succeed. The trade pressures closed in th neutral zone. The Volumes closed the month as bearish from the prior month’s neutral reading.

Weekly – In the sideways channel beginning in early November 2015 and closed in mid channel. Trade pressures are rising and neutral. Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Flat. Still in the downtrend. Trade pressures have fallen back int the neutral zone. Volumes have changed from bullish to bearish in the last few days of the 2015 year.

The pressures due to time now have begun a new upward cycle.

2049 is a level that the market could pivot to long or short.

Wait for the volumes to return to begin 2016 trades.