Market Pressures_

Copper continues the move down to the 1.88 levels. Very oversold.

Precious metals are in a pullback.

Crude oil is in the well publicized free-fall. There are multiple targets nearby suggesting consolidation.

The long natural gas trade stopped and is pulling back.

30 yr Treasury bond futures have moved up sharply to the 160 area.

The US Dollar seems to lose momentum.

Be Alert.

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S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – The Monthly is below the monthly confirmation of a short. Will see if closes there. Trade pressures are neutral. Volumes are bearish.

Weekly – Short since the close below 2038 in early November ’15. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Flat. The short entry for this move was 2048; which was missed. Now at the 1890 extended profit target. Expect consolidation here. Trade pressures are extended down. Volumes are mixed bullish to bearish, closing bearish.

Need a close above 1908 to signal a retracement higher.

Market Pressures_

Copper now looks lower with the uncertainty in China.

Gold moved up sharply on the Yuan devaluation, Silver did not participate.

Crude was down on worries of a global slowdown, but Natural gas continued a steady move up.

Money flowed into the US Treasuries causing a rise in bond prices.

The US Dollar rose as funds moved out of international markets.

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S&P 500 Futures – Last week’s suggestion to wait for volumes had us on the sidelines for this weeks move.

Monthly – Now approaching the 1896 level which if closed below would be additional confirmation of a bearish move. Trade pressures are down. Volumes closed the December month as bearish.

Weekly – Has been in the bearish trade since the close below 2039 in the summer of 2015 and the many failures to break above the new long entry confirmation of 2087. Trade pressures are just turning down. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – The 2049 pivot signaled a new move down on Monday, Jan 4th. The first profit target of 2004 was met that same day. The next target down of 1961 was met the next day. 1890 is the next target down. Trade pressure are down hard but looking over-bought. Volumes are bearish.

Need a close of almost 60 points up to get above the Friday high of 1967; which then could signal a new move up.

During the 2015 calendar year the South Ocean Management trade levels recorded 64 virtual trade setups.

Following the trade management described in the respective posts, 12 of those virtual trades would have resulted in losses and 14 would be stopped out at a break-even; a total of 26 trades with a loss or no gain.

38 gains from 64 trades. That should be a respectable win rate for any trader.

 

Market Pressures_

The Copper trade is flat looking for a new entry.

Gold and Silver are pulling back.

Crude is testing the lows again.

Natural Gas in a long trade, but very near a profit target.

The US 30 YR Treasury is in a short trade.

The US Dollar is pressing lower.

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S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – The month tried to move above the years highs but could not succeed. The trade pressures closed in th neutral zone. The Volumes closed the month as bearish from the prior month’s neutral reading.

Weekly – In the sideways channel beginning in early November 2015 and closed in mid channel. Trade pressures are rising and neutral. Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Flat. Still in the downtrend. Trade pressures have fallen back int the neutral zone. Volumes have changed from bullish to bearish in the last few days of the 2015 year.

The pressures due to time now have begun a new upward cycle.

2049 is a level that the market could pivot to long or short.

Wait for the volumes to return to begin 2016 trades.

Copper and Gold stopped out.

The only active trades are the Long Nat Gas and the Short 30yr US Treasury. Observe the new stops.

Market Pressures_

Copper still a long trade.

Silver and gold near long entries.

Crude is nearing a long trade. Nat Gas has triggered a long trade.

The 30yr US Treasury bond has triggered a short trade.

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S&P Futures_ ESH16

Monthly – Has held near the 2100 highs despite the tax selling wave. Trade pressures are neutral and rising. The November volume close was neutral. 1896 remains as a short confirmation.

Weekly – In eight weeks of range bound trading has touched the 2086 new weekly long entry six of those weeks. Now beginning a move up from an oversold position. If that long entry can occur then the next profit target up is 2237. Trade pressures are down. Volumes changed to bearish during the three weeks before the Christmas holiday.

Daily –  Flat. In the downtrend started in early November. The three day trade for 2012 was stopped out on Dec 23rd. The next profit target up is 2089 which is coincidentally the weekly confirmation for a long trade. The 25×5 is resistance here at 2051.

Trade pressures are up. Volumes changed from bearish to bullish late last week. downward time pressures end on Dec 30.

The ES trade is now long from the 2012 entry price.

Raise the stops to 1999.

Profit target is 2046, or (OCO) sell at market at noon on the 24th.

[12-23-2015 update: sold at 2046 profit target.]

 

Market Pressures_

Precious metals looking for a new long entry. Copper is in a long trade.

Both Crude and Nat Gas are in a long term downtrend. Looking for signs of stabilization.

The US 30yr Treasury bond is acting as a safe haven in this US stock market sell off. But still expecting lower bond prices.

The US dollar (DX) is suggesting lower prices.

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S&P 500 Futures

Monthly – Red month so far. trade pressures are neutral. Volumes are neutral. A close below 1896 will confirm a move down.

Weekly – trend has gone neutral with the holidays. The 1815 previously tested target lower is still active. Trade pressures are down. Volume has changed from bullish to bearish. Still need a close above 2087 to confirm any new move up.

Daily – Flat. Testing the 1985 lower target once again. The next target down is 1958 then 1916. Trade pressures staying in the neutral zone. Volume has changed to bearish from neutral and bullish.

If the Xmas rally is to arrive, a close above 2012 may be the start of one.

[12-21-2015 2012 long entry at 2012.]

[12-23-2015 2046 profit target met.]

 

Market Pressures_

Precious metals are still basing. Copper is a long trade.

Oil and Gas remain in the downtrend.

looking for a new short in the US 30 yr Treasury contract.

The US Dollar is showing lower.

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S&P 500 Futures_   Now negative for the 2015 year.

Monthly – Trade pressures have risen to neutral. Volumes have been neutral for three successive months. Need a close below 1896 to trigger a confirmation of a short trade.

Weekly – Have been in a confirmed short since the close below 2039 in late August. The October rally never closed above the 2087 long confirmation level. Trade pressures have returned to the down. Volumes have changed this last week to bearish from bullish.

Daily – Flat. Monday closed below the 2074 short entry price and reached the 2032 first profit target in the next two days which should be taken, given the volatility. The next target down is 1989. Trade pressures are down. volumes are bearish.

Need a close above 2008 to trigger a new long trade.

[12-13-2015 update: Monday closes above 2008. Volumes change to bullish. Next target up is 2046. Stops at the 1983 lows.]

[12-16-2015 update: raise stops to 2035.]

[Flat. The spike down after the FEd announcement stopped out the trade at the 2035 stop then turned up to rally into the close of 2063.]

 

Market Pressures_

The Metals are indicating possible long entries.

Oil and gas remain in congestion at prior downside targets.

US 30yr Treasuries are signaling lower prices.

The US dollar (DX) has moved decisively lower.

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S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – Still ready to ready to test the 2015 highs. The next target up is 2201. Trade pressures are up. November volumes closed at neutral once again.

Weekly – Once again ready to test the new long entry price of 2094. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes closed bullish. Next target above is 2237.

Daily – Flat. Stopped out of the long trade from 2071 at the entry price of 2071; so a break-even. Trade pressures have turned down. Volumes were bearish but closed at neutral on Friday. The downward time pressures complete their cycle this week. So, expect upwards time pressures to begin the following week.

Multiple short cycles are producing both long entry and short entry signals at these levels. Best to wait.

The Metals and the Treasuries may be better trades.