Author: ChasW

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGZ24

Weekly – In the August 2024 downtrend. Trade pressures have risen into the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral.

Daily – Long. At the 200 day / 4.23 resistance. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bullish.

The February trendline support held. The expected oversold levels rise to 4.02.

A close above the 4.23 resistance would signal higher. The expected overbought levels have declined to 4.23.
But the overbought level suggests a pullback is likely.

[9-16-24: Missed the morning move up and now at overbought. Wait for a new setup.]

 

 

GOLD_ GCZ24

Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend.  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Long, from the 2547 break on 9-12. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 2620. The expected overbought level has risen to 2599.

A close below 2597 (also the SL) would signal lower. The expected oversold level has risen to 2507.

 

SILVER_ SIZ24

Weekly – Still in the December 2023 uptrend.  Trade pressures are now up.  Volumes are now bullish.

Daily –Long. At 31.07, after breaking out again above the UML at 28.91. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 31.99. Overbought levels are 30.61.

A close below 30.32 would signal lower and is the SL.  Oversold levels are 28.19.

[9-16-24: Raise the SL to 30.98]

 

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Summary:

The 10yr yields decline to the 3.70%. Copper declines.  Gold retested the highs and declined.  Silver remains a short.

Crude drops to support.  Natural gas in a new move up.

The US 30yr Treasury Bond  rallies on interest rate cut prospects.

The US Dollar futures pull back but still long long.

_________________

S&P 500 Futures   #ESU24

Monthly –Monthly bar closes below the prior month low. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of August as bullish.  The next target up remains 5958.  The close was just above the 5412; a break below would confirm the weekly move lower. The next target down would be 5067.

Weekly – The weekly closes down hard.  Trade pressures remain up, but continuing to show lower highs.  Volumes remain bullish.  Closed back below the new long entry trigger at 5454. The next target up is still 5829 (new highs).  A close below 5372 would confirm the daily move lower.

Daily – Short. In the move down after the break of the 5527 level. The short trade was stopped out with a profit stop at 5485, only to fall another 65 points. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are bearish.  The next target down is 5369. The expected oversold level declines to 5452. A close above 5497 would signal higher. The expected overbought level has declined to 5634.

Should expect some reflex rally here. Set 5476 as a SL for the short.

___________________

Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is marked to the market and is restarted at $100,000 for the 2024 year.

The Navellier portfolio stocks closed down 35% for the 2022 Year.  The Navellier portfolio stocks closed up 17% for the 2023 Year.

Portfolio stock values for 2024.  The portfolio value moves down to $138,000. The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is now up 38%.

[The author may be long or short any of these issues mentioned]

 

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXZ24

Weekly –  In the new August down trend.  Trade pressures remain down. Volumes are now bearish.

Daily – Long. The low pivot at 100.40 holds a second time; still long. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes remain bullish.

The next target up is 101.76. The expected overbought level rises to 101.99.

A break below the 100.40 pivot would signal lower.. The expected oversold levels rises to 100.26.

 

US30YR T-BOND_ USZ24

Weekly – In a new August 2024 uptrend.  Trade pressures remain up.  Volumes are bullish.

Daily  – Flat. In a new move up off the support at 122-16. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain bearish.

The next target up is 127-24. Overbought levels are 127-02.

A close below 125-07 would signal lower. Oversold levels 120-00.

 

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLV24

Weekly – In the September 2024 downtrend  after breaking support. Trade pressures are in the neutral zone. Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Flat. The short entry was stopped out for a small loss.  Trade pressures are now down.  Volumes are bearish.

At the 67.78 downside target. The expected oversold level decline to 67.16.

At support. A close above 70.11 would signal higher. The expected overbought levels are lower at 74.44.

 

NAT GAS_ NGV24

Weekly – In in a new August 2024 downtrend.  Trade pressures remain down but rising.  Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Long.  In the move up from 2.14 on 9/2 and rallies for the week to 2.28. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 2.38. The expected overbought level rises to 2.31.

A close below 2.18 would signal lower. Set this 2.18 as the SL. The expected oversold level rises to 2.07.

 

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGZ24

Weekly – In the August 2024 downtrend. Trade pressures are below the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Flat. Now lower with the global markets. Testing the February resistance line at 4.07. Trade pressures are down but rising.  Volumes remain bearish.

The lower median line parallel as support failed. The expected oversold levels decline to 4.01.

A close above 4.23 would signal higher. The expected overbought levels have declined to 4.29.

 

GOLD_ GCZ24

Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend.  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Flat. Stopped out of the previous short trade. Price dropped as expected, then rallied to the same UML, then closed down on Friday. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes turn bearish again.

Expect a test of support at 2484; then a possible long. The expected oversold level has declined to 2477.

A close above 2547 would signal higher. The expected overbought level has risen to 2579.

 

SILVER_ SIZ24

Weekly – Still in the December 2023 uptrend.  Trade pressures are now up.  Volumes are now bullish.

Daily –Flat. The short trade was stopped out on 9/5. Trade pressures are in the neutral zone.  Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 27.26.  Oversold levels are 27.86.

Expected support level remains 27.26. Look for a long entry there. A close above 28.91 would signal higher.  Overbought levels are 30.81.

 

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Summary:

The 10yr yields rising toward 4.00%. Copper is consolidating.  Gold is a short.  Silver is a short.

Crude long failed, now a short.  Natural gas rising.

The US 30yr Treasury Bond looking lower.

The US Dollar futures now long.

_________________

S&P 500 Futures   #ESU24

Monthly –Wide ranging bar closes on it’s high. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of August as bullish.  The next target up remains 5958.  A close below 5412 would confirm any weekly move lower. The next target down would be 5067.

Weekly – The weekly closes just above the prior highs.  Trade pressures remain up but showing lower highs.  Volumes remain bullish.  Closed above the new long entry at 5454 on 8/23. The next target up is 5829 (new highs).  A close below 5381 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat. Reverses the two day move down and rallies to test the downtrend line at 5665. Trade pressures are up but declining.  Volumes remain bullish.  The next target up is the 5721 prior high; then 5813. The expected overbought level has declined to 5647.  A close below 5527 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 5506.

Both NVDA and the Inflation reports were benign. The market was quiet except for the rally at the close to square up positions into the 3 day, Labor Day weekend.

[9-4-24: Short entry triggered at 5527. Wait for a back-test at 5600 to enter if resistance holds.]

[9-5-24: Rallied back to broken support at 2555, short.  Set SL at 5557.  Take profits at 5485 ]

[9-6-24: Profit stop hit for a gain.]

___________________

Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is marked to the market and is restarted at $100,000 for the 2024 year.

The Navellier portfolio stocks closed down 35% for the 2022 Year.  The Navellier portfolio stocks closed up 17% for the 2023 Year.

Portfolio stock values for 2024.  The portfolio value moves up to $141,000. The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is now up 41%.

[The author may be long or short any of these issues mentioned]

At the open on September 3rd, WingStop (WING) and Costco (COST) will replace Targa Resources (TRGP) and Vertiv (VRT).

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXZ24

Weekly –  In the new August down trend.  Trade pressures remain down. Volumes are now bearish.

Daily – Long. The low pivot at 100.40 holds, and a new long is triggered at 101.08 on 8-30. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 102.08. The expected overbought level declines to 101.98.

At the 100.58 target. The expected oversold levels rises to 100.24.

 

US30YR T-BOND_ USZ24

Weekly – In a new August 2024 uptrend.  Trade pressures remain up.  Volumes are neutral.

Daily  – Flat. The lower highs translated to a move down to support at 122-10. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are bearish.

the next target down is 121-06. Oversold levels remain 119-25.

A close above 124-04 would signal higher. Overbought levels are 125-23.

 

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLV24

Weekly – In the March 2024 uptrend and above support. Trade pressures are in the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Flat. The short entry was stopped out for a small loss.  Trade pressures are now down.  Volumes are now bullish.

The next target down 71.92. The expected oversold level rises to 71.15.

The next target up is 76.12 and expected support level is 72.67. The expected overbought levels are lower at 77.74.

 

NAT GAS_ NGV24

Weekly – In in a new August 2024 downtrend.  Trade pressures remain down but rising.  Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Flat.  Basing at the 2.00 level. Trade pressures are rising into the neutral zone.  Volumes remain bearish.

The next target down is 1.93 with support is at 2.09. The expected oversold level declines to 1.92.

A close above 2.14 would signal higher. The expected overbought level declines to 2.24.

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGZ24

Weekly – In the August 2024 downtrend. Trade pressures rise into the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral.

Daily – Flat. In the second leg up from 8/29 at 4.20. Trade pressures are down but rising.  Volumes are bearish.

The next target up is 4.36. The expected overbought levels have risen to 4.32.

Support expected at 4.16, the lower median line parallel. The expected oversold levels stay at 4.06.

 

GOLD_ GCZ24

Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend.  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Short. The Upper Median Line parallel, after 5 attempts, rejected the price advance; now forming a small bull flag at the highs. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes turn bearish.

The second close below 2543 signals lower. The next target down is 2499. The expected oversold level has risen to 2511.

A close above 2541 would signal higher. Use this 2541 as a SL. The expected overbought level has risen to 2579.

[9-3-24: set SL at 2538 on 8/30 entry price. Take profits at 2490.]

[9-4-24: Lower SL to 2531. take profit at 2497.]

 

SILVER_ SIZ24

Weekly – Still in the December 2023 uptrend.  Trade pressures are now up.  Volumes are now bullish.

Daily –Short. 8/30 breaks back down into the down channel and triggers the 29.37 short entry. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bullish.

The next target down is 27.91.  Oversold levels are 27.86.

Expected support level is 27.26. Look for a long entry there. A close above 29.43 would signal higher.  Overbought levels are 30.658.

[9-3-24: Set new SL at 28.94. Take profits at 27.50.]

[9-4-24: Take profits at 27.91.]

 

Navellier Top 5 Stocks for September

High-Growth Investments

The Allstate Corporation

The Allstate Corporation (ALL) is a leading insurance provider that’s kept its customers in “good hands” for more than 90 years. Today, Allstate has nearly 193 million policies, and through these policies, it provides a variety of insurance products and services, including auto, boat, motorcycle, homeowners, renters, life and business insurance.

Insurance may be a boring business, but it’s been a profitable one for Allstate. Second-quarter adjusted earnings surged to $429.0 million, or $1.61 per share, up from a loss of $1.16 million, or a $4.42 per share loss, in the second quarter of 2023. Analysts only expected earnings of $0.37 per share, so Allstate posted a whopping 335.1% earnings surprise.

Following the earnings beat, analysts have increased third-quarter earnings estimates over the past month. Third-quarter earnings are now forecast to soar 274.1% year-over-year to $3.03 per share, compared to $0.81 per share in the third quarter of 2023.

I should also add that Allstate is set to pay a quarterly dividend of $0.92 per share on October 1. All shareholders of record today, August 30, will receive the dividend. The stock has a 2.0% dividend yield. ALL is a Conservative buy below $201.

SOM Technicals:

8-3-24: Closed at 178.82. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 188.86.

8-11-24: Closed at 171.03. Trade pressures are rising to the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 168.07.

8-16-24: Closed at 178.11. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 175.48.

8-26-24: Closed at 180.51. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 184.31.

8-30-24: Closed at 188.94. Trade pressures are bullish. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 194.68.

9-7-24: Closed at 185.36. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 180.99.

9-14-24: Closed at 188.30. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 191.33, the previous high.

 

Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc.

Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. (COKE) bottles and distributes a vast range of beverage products and flavors, including Coca-Cola branded products, as well as well-known energy drinks, sparkling and still beverages, carbonated and non-carbonated drinks.

Coca-Cola Consolidated may not have any analysts following the stock yet, but it remains one of our Top Stocks due to persistent institutional buying pressure. The stock earns an A Quantitative grade, which means investors continue to load up on shares.

The company also provided solid results for its second quarter. Sales rose 3.3% year-over-year to $1.8 billion, with sparkling bottle/can sales accounting for $1.05 billion. Operating earnings grew 11% year-over-year to $259.1 million, while adjusted earnings increased 11.7% year-over-year to $192.8 million.

I should add that Coca-Cola Consolidated recently increased its quarterly dividend by a whopping 400%. The company will now pay a quarterly dividend of $2.50 per share, up from its previous $0.50 per share dividend. The dividend will be paid on November 8 to all shareholders of record on October 25. The stock has a 0.75% dividend yield. COKE is a Conservative buy below $1,465.

SOM Technicals:

8-3-24: Closed at 1274.20. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 1345.00.

8-11-24: Closed at 1259.41. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are bullish. The next target down is 1217.49.

8-16-24: Closed at 1270.17. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 1305.70.

8-26-24: Closed at 1339.75. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 1319.69.

8-30-24: Closed at 1342.40. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The next target down is 1285.96.

9-7-24: Closed at 1329.90. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 1285.96.

9-13-24: Closed at 1296.96. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 1233.97.

 

Costco Wholesale Corporation

Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) operates in the warehouse club industry, and it has a global footprint: the company has 600 locations in 47 states and Puerto Rico, as well as 108 locations in Canada, 40 locations in Mexico, 33 locations in Japan and 29 locations in the U.K. The company also has locations in Australia, China, France, Iceland, Korea, New Zealand, Sweden and Taiwan.

During the first nine months of its fiscal year 2024, Costco achieved total sales of $174.76 billion, or a 7% year-over-year increase, and earnings of $5.01 billion, or $11.27 per share, or a 21.3% year-over-year rise. The company is scheduled to announce fourth-quarter and fiscal year results on September 26.

For the fourth quarter, earnings are forecast to grow 4.3% year-over-year to $5.07 per share and sales are expected to increase 1.6% year-over-year to $80.23 billion. Analysts have upped earnings estimates over the past three months, so a fifth-straight quarterly earnings surprise is likely.

Costco is also expected to report 15.4% annual earnings growth and 5.3% annual sales growth for its fiscal year 2024. COST is a Conservative buy below $952.

SOM Technicals:

8-30-24: Closed at 895.38. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 867.10.

9-7-24: Closed at 876.68. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 854.86.

9-14-24: Closed at 916.00. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 939.04.

 

The Progressive Corporation

The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is a well-known insurance provider, offering everything from car, boat and motorcycle insurance to homeowners, renters and commercial insurance. The company also offers popular insurance bundles, in which folks can bundle their auto and property insurance for lower rates. And Progressive continues to benefit from high insurance rates.

In July, Progressive noted that net premiums written totaled $6.38 billion and net premiums earned totaled $6.07 billion. That was up from net premiums written of $5.75 billion and net premiums earnings of $5.78 billion in June. Earnings in July came in at $813.5 million, or $1.38 per share, which compared to earnings of $802.7 million, or $1.37 per share in June. Progressive will report August results on September 13.

Progressive plans to pay a quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share on October 11. All shareholders of record on October 3 will receive the dividend. The stock has a 0.2% dividend yield. PGR is a Conservative buy below $268.

SOM Technicals:

4/27/24: Closed at 205.03. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 199.79.

5-4-24: Closed at 208.72. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bullish. The next target down is 206.06.

5-10-24: Closed at 210.17. Trade pressures are neutral. Volumes are bullish. The next target down is 211.49.

5-18-24: Closed at 209.22. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 201.34.

5-25-24: Closed at 203.91. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 191.19.

6-2-24: Closed at 211.18. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 214.90.

6-8-24: Closed at 212.53. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 219.12.

6-15-24: Closed at 203.92. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bearish. The next target up is 218.20.  

6-23-24: Closed at 209.19. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bullish. The next target down is 206.

6-30-24: Closed at 207.71. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish. The next target up is 218.69.

7-5-24: Closed at 210.18. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 205.22.

7-12-24: Closed at 213.30. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 218.69.

7-20-24: Closed at 219.35. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are bearish. The next target down 212.57.

8-3-24: Closed at 216.94. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next  target up is 240.00.

8-11-24: Closed at 221.73. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 227.32.

8-16-24: Closed at 236.77. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 244.22.

8-26-24: Closed at 242.45. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 246.40.

8-30-24: Closed at 252.20. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 261.59.

9-7-24: Closed at 248.69. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 244.68.

9-14-24: Closed at 255.46. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 267.5.

 

Wingstop, Inc.

Wingstop, Inc. (WING) was a new addition to the High-Growth Investments Buy List in the August Monthly Issue. If you recall, Wingstop is a restaurant chain that offers buffalo-style chicken wings, with classic wings, boneless wings and chicken tenders, all offered with a wide selection of sauce flavors.

Wingstop operates more than 2,200 restaurants in the U.S., as well as in Colombia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Panama, Singapore, the U.K. and the United Arab Emirates.

During the second quarter, system-wide sales jumped 45.2% year-over-year to $1.2 billion, and Wingstop opened 73 new stores. Total second-quarter revenue increased 45.3% year-over-year to $155.7 million, topping estimates for $144.01 million. Second-quarter earnings soared nearly 70% year-over-year to $27.5 million, or $0.93 per share, also beating estimates for $0.82 per share.

Following the positive second-quarter results, analysts have increased third-quarter earnings estimates by 10.6% in the past month. Third-quarter earnings are now forecast to grow 36.2% year-over-year to $0.94 per share, and sales are expected to come in at $159.89 million. WING is a Moderately Aggressive buy below $426.

SOM Technicals:

8-30-24: Closed at 386.11. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 364.74.

9-7-24: Closed at 362.41. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 354.11.

9-14-24: Closed at 394.81. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 409.77, the prior high.