Author: ChasW

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXU26

Weekly –  In the March 2026 uptrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Short. In the move below 100.80 on 7/29.  Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are neutral.

The next target down is 97.75. The expected oversold levels decline to 98.24.

A close above 99.57 would signal higher. The expected overbought level declines to 99.21.

[The OB/OS channel is declining.]

[8-21-26: No break out. Price holds the 98.47 lows.]

 

US30YR T-BOND_ USU26

Weekly – In the March 2026 downtrend.  Trade pressures are down.  Volumes remain bearish.

Daily  – Flat. Back into the declining channel. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are neutral.

The next target down is 108-24. Oversold levels decline to 107-18.

The next long entry is 109-31. Overbought levels rise to 110-20.

[The OB/OS channel is narrowing.]

10yr yields hold at 4.71%. The yield overbought level holds at 4.75.

 

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLV26

Weekly – In the new June 2026 down trend. Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Flat. In the move up from 82.29 on 8/17. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain bullish.

The next target up is 91.30. The expected overbought levels rise to 87.92.

A close below 83.81 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 81.25.

[OB/OS channel is rising.]
OVX (oil volatility) holds at 49.

(One of the larger components in the measure of inflation.The Hedgeye.com inflation nowcast now expects inflation rising, slowly, thru the year end.)

 

NAT GAS_ NGU26

Weekly – In the August 2026 downtrend. Trade pressures are down, but rising.  Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Flat, In the move up from 2.74 on 8/18, finding resisitance at 2.79 . Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are neutral.

The next target up remains 2.89. The expected overbought level rises to 2.91.

A close below 2.74 would signal lower.  The expected oversold level rises to 2.62.

[OB/OS channel is rising.]

Natural gas is produced with oil production. Natural gas production as a ratio of oil production has been rising, amounting to 47% of the Permian Basin oil production in 2024.

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGU26, MHGU26

Weekly – In the October 2025 uptrend. Trade pressures are up, but declining. Volumes are bullish.

Daily –Flat. The close above 6.64 triggers the new long entry on 8/21. Now backtesting the break out.
Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bearish.

The next target up is 6.66. The expected overbought levels declines to 6.70.

A close below 6.55 would signal lower. The expected oversold levels rise to 6.46.

[OB/OS channel is narrowing.]

[8-21-26: No entry. Bearish volume; need bullish confirmation. Set the Stop loss at 6.50. ]

 

GOLD_ GCZ26, MGCZ26

Weekly – In the new August 2026 uptrend.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Flat. Continues the move up from the 4133 trigger on 8/4. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 4800, and still above new OB. The expected overbought level rises to 4617.

A close below 4646 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 4322.

[OB/OS channel is rising.]  GVX @ 27 = investable.

 

SILVER_ SIU26

Weekly – In the June 2026 downtrend. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Flat. No short. Big end of week/month rally above 65.39; long entry trigger on 8/19. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 71.42.  Overbought levels rise to 70.

A close below 68.50 would signal lower. The oversold levels rise to 62.

[OB/OS channel is rising.]

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES, #MES

Market Summary:

Copper drops to support. Gold and Silver profit taking

Crude in a new move up. Natural Gas remains in downtrend.

The US 30yr Treasury continues loweras the 10yr yield rises to 4.71%.
The expected overbought level for the 10yr yield rises to 4.75%.

The US Dollar – The USD near a new long entry.

_________________

S&P 500 Futures   #ESU26, #MESU26

Monthly –Monthly bar remains above prior month. Trade pressures remain up,  Volumes closed the month of July as bullish.  The 7820 price is the new high.  The next target up is 8684.  A close below 7489 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar in a new uptrend, but declining.  Trade pressures remain up, but declining. Volumes remain bullish.  The next target up is 7963. A close below the 7590 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Short.  In a new move down from 7738 on 8-18.  Trade pressures are down,  Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 7638. The expected oversold level rises to 7676.

A close above 7756 would signal higher. The expected overbought level declines to 7815.

[OB/OS trend is widening.]
The VIX closes below 19, at 15.83 indicating market is investable.
The Hedgeye.com VIX risk range is 14.01 – 16.22.

[8-18-26: Set the SL at 7738.] [8-19-26: Stopped out at the 7738 entry.]

__________________

Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is reset to $100,000 for the 2026 year.

These Navellier Top 5 portfolio stocks closed:
Down 35% for the 2022 Year.
    Up 17% for the 2023 Year.
    Up 42% for the 2024 Year.
    Up 48% for the 2025 Year

Portfolio stock values for 2026. 
The portfolio is up to $200,000.
The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is up 100%.

The Hedgeye.com GDP nowcast has GDP growth slowing and inflation rising (Quad 3) in the 3rd quarter, re-accelerating in the 4th quarter and slowing once again in the 1st quarter of 2027.
6/26 – Now all cash for the summer; re-entering late July or early August, or re-entering if Navellier adds more defensive names.
7/25 – Quad shift (GDP and Inflation) to Quad 3 from a Quad 4 is likely in early August. Will look to re-enter positions.
8/2    – Re-entering the new Top 5 at the next open. CIEN, DINO, ENLT, MU, STX.

The S&P 500 YTD return is 13.14%

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXU26

Weekly –  In the March 2026 uptrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Short. In the move below 100.80 on 7/29.  Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are neutral.

The next target down is 99.05. The expected oversold levels rise to 99.44.

A close above 99.61 would signal higher. The expected overbought level declines to 100.17.

[The OB/OS channel is narrowing.]

[8-18-26: Look for a break out.]

 

US30YR T-BOND_ USU26

Weekly – In the March 2026 downtrend.  Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are bearish.

Daily  – Flat. In the declining channel. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are bullish.

The next target down is 106-24. Oversold levels decline to 107-22.

The next long entry is 108-20. Overbought levels decline to 110-11.

[The OB/OS channel is declining.]

10yr yields rise to 4.71%. The yield overbought level rises to 4.75.

[Post market break long above 108-22.]

[8-19-26: Treasury bond buy-back. Take profit at 110.00]

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLV26

Weekly – In the new June 2026 down trend. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are now bullish.

Daily – Flat. In the move up from 82.29 on 8/17. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bullish, albeit on declining volume.

At. 84.24. The next target up is 86.40. The expected overbought levels rise to 87.22.

A close below 82.68 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 76.49.

[OB/OS channel is rising.]
OVX (oil volatility) down to 49.

(One of the larger components in the measure of inflation.The Hedgeye.com inflation nowcast now expects inflation level into the August meeting.)

 

NAT GAS_ NGU26

Weekly – In the August 2026 downtrend. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Flat, In the move up from 2.74 on 8/18. Trade pressures up into the neutral zone.  Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 2.89. The expected overbought level rises to 2.85.

The next target down is 2.46.  The expected oversold level declines to 2.52.

[OB/OS channel is widening.]

Natural gas is produced with oil production. Natural gas production as a ratio of oil production has been rising, amounting to 47% of the Permian Basin oil production in 2024.

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGU26, MHGU26

Weekly – In the October 2025 uptrend. Trade pressures are up, but declining. Volumes are bullish.

Daily –Flat. The short entry at 6.66 on 8/7 has been stopped out at the entry price on 8/11. Made a lower high on 8/17 and continues lower. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes remain bearish.

The next target down is 6.39. The expected oversold levels rise to 6.45.

A close above 6.64 would signal higher. The expected overbought levels declines to 6.71.

[OB/OS channel is narrowing.]

 

GOLD_ GCZ26, MGCZ26

Weekly – In the June 2026 down trend, should test resistance.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Flat. Continues the move up from the 4133 trigger on 8/4. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bullish.

Price at the next target up – 4500, and above OB. The expected overbought level rises to 4475.

A close below 4338 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 4246.

[OB/OS channel is rising.]  GVX @ 24 = investable.

[8-18-26: Take profit at the 4410 level.]

 

SILVER_ SIU26

Weekly – In the June 2026 downtrend. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Flat. In a new move down from 65 on 8/18. Wait for a pullback enter short. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone.  Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 62.41. The oversold levels rise to 61.

A close above 65.39 would signal higher.  Overbought levels rise to 68.

[OB/OS channel is rising.]

 

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES, #MES

Market Summary:

Copper now at resistance. Gold and Silver breakout. Gold is OB.

Crude setting up for a new move up. Natural Gas remains in downtrend.

The US 30yr Treasury basing as the 10yr yield declines to 4.66%.
The expected overbought level for the 10yr yield declines to 4.74%.

The US Dollar – The USD in a new short, but near OS.

_________________

S&P 500 Futures   #ESU26, #MESU26

Monthly –Monthly bar breaks out to new highs. Trade pressures remain up,  Volumes closed the month of July as bullish.  The 7820 price is the new high.  The next target up is 8684.  A close below 7489 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar rises into a new uptrend.  Trade pressures remain up, but declining. Volumes remain bullish.  The next target up is 7963. A close below the 7625 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat.  From 7486 on 7/31, out with profit stop hit at 7550.  Trade pressures are up,  Volumes remain bullish.

The next target up is 7810. The expected overbought level rises to 7826.

A close below 7718 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 7375.

[OB/OS trend is rising.]
The VIX closes below 19, at 14.90 indicating market is investable.
The Hedgeye.com VIX risk range is 14.74 – 17.98.

[8-7-26: Set any SL at 7718.]

__________________

Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is reset to $100,000 for the 2026 year.

These Navellier Top 5 portfolio stocks closed:
Down 35% for the 2022 Year.
    Up 17% for the 2023 Year.
    Up 42% for the 2024 Year.
    Up 48% for the 2025 Year

Portfolio stock values for 2026. 
The portfolio is up to $180,000.
The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is up 80%.

The Hedgeye.com GDP nowcast has GDP growth slowing and inflation rising (Quad 3) in the 3rd quarter, re-accelerating in the 4th quarter and slowing once again in the 1st quarter of 2027.
6/26 – Now all cash for the summer; re-entering late July or early August, or re-entering if Navellier adds more defensive names.
7/25 – Quad shift (GDP and Inflation) to Quad 3 from a Quad 4 is likely in early August. Will look to re-enter positions.
8/2    – Re-entering the new Top 5 at the next open. CIEN, DINO, ENLT, MU, STX.

The S&P 500 YTD return is 12.63%

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXU26

Weekly –  In the March 2026 uptrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Short. In the move below 101.06.  Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are neutral.

The next target down is 98.92. The expected oversold levels decline to 99.01.

A close above 99.61 would signal higher. The expected overbought level declines to 100.71.

[The OB/OS channel is declining.]

 

US30YR T-BOND_ USU26

Weekly – In the March 2026 downtrend.  Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are bearish.

Daily  – Flat. Stopped out of the long trade at 109-06 on 8/7. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone..  Volumes are bearish.

The next long entry is 109-06. Overbought levels rise to 111-01.

A close below 109-02 would signal lower. Oversold levels rise to 108-08.

[The OB/OS channel is rising.]

[8-7-26:   Set SL at 109-01.]

10yr yields decline to 4.66%. The yield overbought level rises to 4.74.

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLU26

Weekly – In the new June 2026 down trend, resistance holds. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now neutral.

Daily – Short. Rally fails. In the move down from 83.16 on 8/4. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone.  Volumes remain neutral.

At 76.18. The next target down is 73.76. The expected oversold level declines to 72.63.

A close above 79.58 would signal higher. The expected overbought levels decline to 82.60.

[OB/OS channel is declining.]
OVX (oil volatility) up to 55.

[8-7-26: 2 hour trend has changed to up. Set the SL at 79.58.]

[8-10-26: Stopped out at 79.58.]

(One of the larger components in the measure of inflation.The Hedgeye.com inflation nowcast now expects inflation level into the August meeting.)

 

NAT GAS_ NGU26

Weekly – In the August 2026 downtrend. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Flat, In the move down from 2.96 on 7/10. Trade pressures are down but turning up.  Volumes are neutral.

The next target down is 2.46.  The expected oversold level declines to 2.55.

A close above 2.82 would signal higher. The expected overbought level declines to 2.79.

[8-7-26: OS levels are declining. 2Hr Trend has changed to up. Set any SL at 2.72.]

[OB/OS channel is declining.]

Natural gas is produced with oil production. Natural gas production as a ratio of oil production has been rising, amounting to 47% of the Permian Basin oil production in 2024.