Author: ChasW

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLX26

Weekly – In the new September 2026 up trend. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes are now neutral.

Daily – Flat. In a new move down from 91.56 on 9/21.  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bearish.

A close below 91.56 would signal lower. The expected oversold level declines to 87.96.

A close above 99.73 woiuld signal higher. The expected overbought levels decline to 107.94.

[OB/OS channel is declining.]
OVX (oil volatility) rises to 55.

(One of the larger components in the measure of inflation.The Hedgeye.com inflation nowcast now expects inflation rising, slowly, thru the year end. Rises in the GDP are also expected.(Stagflation).)

 

NAT GAS_ NGX26

Weekly – In the August 2026 downtrend, but testing the resisitance at 3.47. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are now bullish.

Daily – Flat, Breaks out to the upside. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are again neutral.

The next target up is 3.54. The expected overbought level rises to 3.33.

A close below 3.13 would signal lower.  The expected oversold level rises to 2.89.

[OB/OS channel is rising.]

Natural gas is produced with oil production. Natural gas production as a ratio of oil production has been rising; amounted to 47% of the Permian Basin oil production in 2024.

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGZ26, MHGZ26

Weekly – In the October 2025 uptrend. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish.

Daily –Flat. In a pull back to 6.78. Remains OB. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are neutral.

The next target up is 6.92. The expected overbought level rises to 6.79.

A close below 6.71 would signal lower. The expected oversold levels rise to 6.40.

[OB/OS channel is rising.]

 

GOLD_ GCZ26, MGCZ26

Weekly – In the new August 2026 uptrend.  Trade pressures down. Volumes are now bearish.

Daily – Flat. The pullback is creating a bull flag. Higher lows. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are neutral.

The next target down is 4257. The expected oversold level declines to 4224.

A close above 4353 would signal higher.  The expected overbought level declines to 4383.

[OB/OS channel is declining.]  GVX @ 23 = investable. The 30 level would indicate Chop.

 

SILVER_ SIZ26

Weekly – In the June 2026 downtrend. Trade pressures remain down.  Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Flat. Drops further to the 63.00 level.  Trade pressures are down, but rising.  Volumes are neutral.

The next target up is 66.52.  Overbought levels remain at 68.

A close below 63.42 would signal lower. The oversold levels rise to 62.

[OB/OS channel is narrowing.]

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES, #MES

Market Summary:

Copper rallies to lower high.  Gold and Silver are rising with higher lows.

Crude sells off into the weekend. Natural Gas moves up slowly.

The US 30yr Treasury – Oversold. A break above the downward channel boundary remains the objective,
The 10yr yield at 4.93%. The expected overbought level for the 10yr yield at 5.12%.

The US Dollar – The USD moves higher after FED raises rates.

_________________

S&P 500 Futures   #ESZ26, #MESZ26  (DEC26 contract change)

Monthly –Monthly bar remains below the prior month. Trade pressures remain up,  Volumes closed the month of August as bullish.  The 7906 price remains the high.  The next target up is 8752.  A close below 7575 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar again below the prior week’s close.  Trade pressures remain up, but declining. Volumes remain bullish.  The next target down is the 7600 support level. A close below 7600 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat.  4th rally to the upper median parallel attempted to break out; it failed. Now trying one more time to break above 7793. Trade pressures are up,  Volumes are neutral.

The next target down is 7506. The expected oversold level declines to 7513.

A close above 7736 would confirm signal higher to 7793. The expected overbought level declines to 7727, (Resistance).

[OB/OS channel is declining.]
The VIX closes below 19, at 14.8 indicating market remains investable.
The Hedgeye.com VIX risk range is 14.32 – 18.64.

__________________

Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is reset to $100,000 for the 2026 year.

These Navellier Top 5 portfolio stocks closed:
Down 35% for the 2022 Year.
    Up 17% for the 2023 Year.
    Up 42% for the 2024 Year.
    Up 48% for the 2025 Year

Portfolio stock values for 2026. 
The portfolio rises to $193,000.
The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is up 93%.

The Hedgeye.com GDP nowcast has GDP growth slowing and inflation rising (Quad 3) in the 3rd quarter, re-accelerating in the 4th quarter with both growth and inflation rising and slowing once again in the 1st quarter of 2027.

6/26 – Now all cash for the summer; re-entering late July or early August, or re-entering if Navellier adds more defensive names.
7/25 – Quad shift (GDP and Inflation) to Quad 3 from a Quad 4 is likely in early August. Will look to re-enter positions.
8/2    – Re-entering the new Top 5 at the next open. CIEN, DINO, ENLT, MU, STX.
8/29  – replace Sinclair (DINO), Enlight Renewable Energy (ENLY), and Seagate Tech (STX) with Marathon Petro (MPC), PhillIps 66 (PSX), and San Disk (SNDK) at the next open.

The S&P 500 YTD return is 11.57%

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXZ26

Weekly –  In the March 2026 uptrend. Trade pressures are down, but rising. Volumes are beaerish.

Daily – Flat. Breaks out of the bull flag above 99.84 on 9/16.  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 100.41. The expected overbought level rises to 100.81.

A close below 98.81 would signal lower. The expected oversold levels rise to 99.53.

[The OB/OS channel is rising.]

[9-18-26: 10 yr rate is over-bought, may bring downward pressure on the $USD.]

 

US30YR T-BOND_ USZ26

Weekly – In the March 2026 downtrend, breaking below lower channel bound.  Trade pressures are down.  Volumes remain bearish.

Daily  – Flat. Remains in the downward channel. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are neutral.

The next target down is a test of the pivot low at 106-01. Oversold levels decline to 106-25.

The next channel breakout and long entry is 107-26. Overbought levels decline to 109-08.

[The OB/OS channel is declining.]

[9-18-16: 10yr yields decline to 4.93%. The yield overbought level rises to 5.12.]

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLX26

Weekly – In the new September 2026 up trend. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Flat. New highs but the contract rollover to November has affected the move up. Trade pressures are up, but turning down.  Volumes are remain neutral.

The next target up is 102.07. The expected overbought levels rise to 107.99.

A close below 91.56 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 93.09.

[OB/OS channel is rising.]
OVX (oil volatility) declines to 50.

(One of the larger components in the measure of inflation.The Hedgeye.com inflation nowcast now expects inflation rising, slowly, thru the year end. Rises in the GDP are also expected.(Stagflation).)

 

NAT GAS_ NGV26

Weekly – In the August 2026 downtrend. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain neutral.

Daily – Flat, Moving up with lower highs; finding resistance at the upper median line parallel. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are now neutral.

The next target up is 2.93. The expected overbought level declines to 2.92.

A close below 2.84 would signal lower.  The expected oversold level declines to 2.70.

[OB/OS channel is declining.]

Natural gas is produced with oil production. Natural gas production as a ratio of oil production has been rising; amounted to 47% of the Permian Basin oil production in 2024.

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGZ26, MHGZ26

Weekly – In the October 2025 uptrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bullish.

Daily –Flat. Big move up during the week to 6.74. Now OB. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bullish..

The next target up is 6.88. Resistance is at 6.73. The expected overbought level declines to 6.73.

A close below 6.58 would signal lower. The expected oversold levels decline to 6.29.

[OB/OS channel is declining.]

 

GOLD_ GCZ26, MGCZ26

Weekly – In the new August 2026 uptrend.  Trade pressures down. Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Flat. In the move up from 4274 low pivot on 9/16. Higher lows. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 4502. The expected overbought level declines to 4424.

A close below 4355 would signal lower. The expected oversold level declines to 4250.

[OB/OS channel is declining.]  GVX @ 23 = investable. The 30 level would indicate Chop.

[9-18-26: Gold is sensitive to interest rates. The 10yr yield is coming off the recent high; so any decline in rates could set up a new long for Currency equivalent metals.]

 

SILVER_ SIZ26

Weekly – In the June 2026 downtrend. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are now bullish.

Daily – Flat. Consolidating at the 66.30 level (resistance).  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain bullish.

The next target up is 67.85..  Overbought levels decline to 68.

A close below 65.76 would signal lower. The oversold levels decline to 61.

[OB/OS channel is declining.]

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES, #MES

Market Summary:

Copper at OS support.  Gold and Silver in consolidation.

Crude moves higher on Yemeni threats of red sea transit closure. Natural Gas moves up slowly.

The US 30yr Treasury – Oversold. A break above the downward channel boundary remains the objective,
The 10yr yield at 4.97%. The expected overbought level for the 10yr yield at 4.98%.

The US Dollar – The USD a new short entry. War$’s + rising crude + rising interst rates + rising inflation

_________________

S&P 500 Futures   #ESZ26, #MESZ26  (DEC26 contract change)

Monthly –Monthly bar now below the prior month. Trade pressures remain up,  Volumes closed the month of August as bullish.  The 7906 price is the new high.  The next target up is 8752.  A close below 7575 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar below the prior week’s close.  Trade pressures remain up, but declining. Volumes are now bullish.  The next target down is 7615. A close below 7615 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat.  4th rally to the upper median parallel in attempt to break out. Trade pressures are down, but rising,  Volumes are bullish.

The next target down is 7609. The expected oversold level declines to 7565.

A close above 7743 would confirm signal higher to 7824. 9/13, testing this resistance again. The expected overbought level declines to 7730.

[OB/OS channel is declining.]
The VIX closes below 19, at 15.80 indicating market remains investable.
The Hedgeye.com VIX risk range is 14.33 – 18.77.

__________________

Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is reset to $100,000 for the 2026 year.

These Navellier Top 5 portfolio stocks closed:
Down 35% for the 2022 Year.
    Up 17% for the 2023 Year.
    Up 42% for the 2024 Year.
    Up 48% for the 2025 Year

Portfolio stock values for 2026. 
The portfoliodeclines to $189,000.
The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is up 89%.

The Hedgeye.com GDP nowcast has GDP growth slowing and inflation rising (Quad 3) in the 3rd quarter, re-accelerating in the 4th quarter with both growth and inflation rising and slowing once again in the 1st quarter of 2027.

6/26 – Now all cash for the summer; re-entering late July or early August, or re-entering if Navellier adds more defensive names.
7/25 – Quad shift (GDP and Inflation) to Quad 3 from a Quad 4 is likely in early August. Will look to re-enter positions.
8/2    – Re-entering the new Top 5 at the next open. CIEN, DINO, ENLT, MU, STX.
8/29  – replace Sinclair (DINO), Enlight Renewable Energy (ENLY), and Seagate Tech (STX) with Marathon Petro (MPC), PhillIps 66 (PSX), and San Disk (SNDK) at the next open.

The S&P 500 YTD return is 10.90%

US $$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXZ26

Weekly –  In the March 2026 uptrend. Trade pressures are down, but rising. Volumes are beaerish.

Daily – Flat. In the new move up from 98.66 on 9/10.  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are neutral.

The next target up is 98.99. The expected overbought level declines to 99.17.

A close below 9864 would signal lower. The expected oversold levels decline to 98.40.

[The OB/OS channel is declining.]

 

US30YR T-BOND_ USU26

Weekly – In the March 2026 downtrend, breaking below lower channel bound.  Trade pressures are down, but slowly rising.  Volumes remain bearish.

Daily  – Flat. Remains in the downward channel. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 106-01. Oversold levels decline to 106-25.

The next channel breakout and long entry is 107-10. Overbought levels decline to 109-08.

[The OB/OS channel is declining.]

[9-13-16: 10yr yields rise to 4.97%. The yield overbought level rises to 4.98.]

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLV26

Weekly – In the new September 2026 up trend. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Flat. ripped thru the 92 target to a new high off 104.16 on 9/11.. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are now neutral.

The next target up is 107.19. The expected overbought levels rise to 102.99.

A close below 88.87 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 88.57.

[OB/OS channel is rising.]
OVX (oil volatility) rises to 59.

(One of the larger components in the measure of inflation.The Hedgeye.com inflation nowcast now expects inflation rising, slowly, thru the year end. Rises in the GDP are also expected.)

 

NAT GAS_ NGV26

Weekly – In the August 2026 downtrend. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are now neutral.

Daily – Flat, Basing with a likely long entry at 2.84. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 2.93. The expected overbought level declines to 2.99.

A close below 2.77 would signal lower.  The expected oversold level declines to 2.71.

[OB/OS channel is declining.]

Natural gas is produced with oil production. Natural gas production as a ratio of oil production has been rising; amounted to 47% of the Permian Basin oil production in 2024.

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGZ26, MHGZ26

Weekly – In the October 2025 uptrend. Trade pressures are up, but declining. Volumes are bearish.

Daily –Flat. Did break above the 67 level, but the retest of that breakout failed and price tumbled to support at 6.49 on 9/10.
Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are again neutral.

Now near the OS levels; so may expect a bounce. But the declining weekly cautions against any entry. The expected overbought level rises to 6.84.

A close below 6.58 would signal lower. The expected oversold levels decline to 6.35.

[OB/OS channel is widening.]
[9-13-26: expect increasing volatility.]

 

GOLD_ GCZ26, MGCZ26

Weekly – In the new August 2026 uptrend.  Trade pressures down and declining. Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Flat. In the move down from 4508 and the 200 day on 8/28. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are bullish.

The next target down is 4257. The expected oversold level declines to 4276.

A close above 4438 would signal higher. The expected overbought level declines to 4503.

[OB/OS channel is declining.]  GVX @ 25 = investable. The 30 level would indicate Chop.

[9-13-26: Gold is sensitive to interest rates. The 10yr yield is now OB; so any decline in rates would set up a new long for Currency equivalent metals.]

 

SILVER_ SIZ26

Weekly – In the June 2026 downtrend. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Flat. The next target up from 64.42 is 66.30 (resistance).  Trade pressures are downp.  Volumes are bullish.

After the 9/10 drop. now in a new move up off the 63.15 low.  Overbought levels rise to 70.

A close below 63.48 would signal lower. The oversold levels hold at 62.

[OB/OS channel is widening.]