Author: ChasW

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLM26

Weekly – In the January 2026 uptrend. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes are now bullish.

Daily – Flat. Continues lower amid rally attempts. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are now bearish.

The next target down is 75.66. The expected oversold level declines to 83.46.

A close above 86.98 would signal higher. The expected overbought levels rise to 119.97.

[OB/OS channel is widening.] expect increasing volatility.
OVX (oil volatility) drops to 69; still choppy.

(One of the larger components measuring inflation. The Hedgeye inflation nowcast now expects rising inflation in the 2nd thru the 4th quarters of 2026.)

 

NAT GAS_ NGK26

Weekly – In the January 2025 uptrend. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Flat, Testing for a new move at the 2.70 level.  Trade pressures are rising into the neutral zone.  Volumes are neutral.

A close above 2.70 would signal higher. The expected overbought level declines to 2.86.

The next support down is 2.63.  The expected oversold level declines to 2.47.

[OB/OS channel is declining.]

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGK26, MHGK26

Weekly – In the October 2025 uptrend, rallied off support. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Flat. In the move up from 5.76 on 4/10. Trade pressures are up, turning down.  Volumes are neutral.

The next target up is 6.23. The expected overbought levels rise to 6.21.

A close below 5.96 would signal lower. The expected oversold levels rise to 5.62.

[OB/OS channel is rising.]

[4-16-26: Stopped out at 6.03]

 

GOLD_ GCM26, MGCM26

Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend.  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain neutral.

Daily – Flat. In the new move up from 4718 on 4/1.  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 5032.  The expected overbought level rises to 4876.

A close below 4796 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 4657.

[OB/OS channel is rising.]  GVX drops to 28.90 – in the investable zone.

 

SILVER_ SIK26

Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend. Trade pressures remain down, but rising.  Volumes remain neutral.

Daily – Flat. At the downtrend resistance at 81.61. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain bullish.

The next target up is 81.48. Overbought levels rise to 77.

A close below 79.13 would signal lower. The oversold levels rise to 69.

[OB/OS channel is rising.]

[4-15-26: Set the SL at 77.04.] [4-11-26: correction – stopped out the next am session at 74.36.]

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Summary:

Copper new long at 5.76. Gold and Silver trade pressures are rising. GVX declining, allowing risk.

Crude consolidating after 20 dollar move down.  Natural Gas in channel with a negative bias.

The US 30yr Treasury rally after testing the lower boundary of the channel.
The 10yr yields decline to 4.30%.  The expected overbought level for the 10yr yield declines to 4.45%.

The US Dollar – new down move.

_________________

S&P 500 Futures   #ESM26

Monthly –Monthly bar recovers and is back above the October ’22 Median line. Trade pressures remain up, but declining. Volumes closed the month of March as bearish.  The 7092 price remains the adjusted high.  The close back above the 6782 signals higher. A close below 6507 would signal a failure of the move up.

Weekly – The weekly bar breaks above the Feb 27 downtrend line.  Trade pressures remain down, but rising. Volumes are bullish.  A close above 6863 would signal higher. A close below 6476 would confirm any new daily move lower.

Daily – Long.  In the move up from the 6467 long entry on 3/31. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 6895, which is resistance and is also above the OB level.  The expected overbought level rises to 6888.

A close below 6831 would signal lower. The expected oversold level declines to 6340.

[OB/OS trend is widening.]
The VIX closes near 19 indicating market is investible and choppy.

[4-15-26: Set SL at 6976.]

__________________

Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is reset to start at $100,000 for the 2026 year.

These Navellier Top 5 portfolio stocks closed:
Down 35% for the 2022 Year.
    Up 17% for the 2023 Year.
    Up 42% for the 2024 Year.
    Up 48% for the 2025 Year

Portfolio stock values for 2026. 
The portfolio value much higher for the week, at $136,000.
The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is up 36%.

The S&P 500 YTD return is 2.86%

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXM26

Weekly –  In the new March 2026 uptrend. Trade pressures are down to the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Short. from 99.73 on 4/06. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 97.62. The expected oversold levels decline to 98.51.

A close above 98.77 98.21 would signal higher  The expected overbought level rises to 100.51.

[The OB/OS channel is widening.]

 

US30YR T-BOND_ USM26

Weekly – In the new March 2026 downtrend.  Trade pressures remain down, but rising.  Volumes are neutral.

Daily  – Flat. A new long entry at 113-07 on 3/30. (After retest of the lower median line parallel at 111-23 on 3/27.) Trade pressures remain down.  Volumes are neutral.

The next target up is 115-04. Overbought levels rise to 114-28.

A close below 113-09 would signal lower.  Oversold levels rise to 112-26.

[The OB/OS channel is rising.]

10yr yields decline to 4.30% and near OS.

[4-11-26: Set the SL at 113-07.]

[4-14-26: Raise the SL to 113-.25]

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLK26

Weekly – In the January 2026 uptrend. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes are now bullish.

Daily – Flat. The prior uptrend crashed to 84, now moving higher . Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are now neutral.

A close below 90.46 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 98.95.

a close above 98.90 would signal higher. The expected overbought levels rise to 116.84.

[OB/OS channel is rising.]
OVX (oil volatility) drops to 78; still choppy.   Daily ranges are too wide.

(One of the larger components measuring inflation. The Hedgeye inflation nowcast now expects rising inflation in the 2nd thru the 4th quarters of 2026.)

 

NAT GAS_ NGK26

Weekly – In the January 2025 uptrend. Trade pressures are near support.  Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Flat, Declining in a channel to the 200 day MA. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes remain bearish.

In the move down from 2.90 on 3/30. The next target down is 2.43.  The expected overbought level declines to 2.96.

A close above 2.70 would signal higher. The expected oversold level declines to 2.62.

[OB/OS channel is declining.]

 

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGK26

Weekly – In the October 2025 uptrend, rallied off support. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – Long. In the new move up from 5.76 on 4/10. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 5.97 6.29. The expected overbought levels rise to 5.81.

A close below 5.77 would signal lower. The expected oversold levels rise to 5.41.

[OB/OS channel is rising.]

[4-15-26: Set the SL at 6.03]

 

GOLD_ GCM26

Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend.  Trade pressures are down but rising to the neutral zone.  Volumes are now neutral.

Daily – Flat. In the new move up from 4718 on 4/1. No trade, OB/OS trending lower.  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 4737.  The expected overbought level declines to 4435.

A close below 4727 would signal lower. The expected oversold level declines to 4278.

[OB/OS channel is declining.]  GVX drops to 30 – in the investible zone.

 

SILVER_ SIK26

Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend. Trade pressures remain down, but rising.  Volumes are neutral.

Daily – Long. In the move up from 75.69 on 4/10. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 80.04 81.48. Overbought levels rise to 77.

A close below 74.34 would signal lower. The oversold levels rise to 69.

[OB/OS channel is rising.]

[4-15-26: Set the SL at 77.04.]

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Summary:

Copper breakout failed, in consolidation at the 200 day MA support. Gold and Silver sell off, but now trade pressures are rising. GVX rising, creating risk.

Crude settling into a much higher range 86-102.  Natural Gas in channel with a positive bias.

The US 30yr Treasury selling off hard
The 10yr yields rally to 4.44%.  The expected overbought level for the 10yr yield rises to 4.46%.

The US Dollar – consolidating at 99.96, testing the upper parallel boundary.

_________________

S&P 500 Futures   #ESM26

Monthly –Monthly bar drops thru the October ’22 Median line. Trade pressures remain up, but declining. Volumes closed the month of February as bullish, but clearly bearish now.  The 7092 price remains the adjusted high.  The close below 6782 confirmed the weekly move lower. 6279 is the next target down. A close back above 6782 would signal higher.

Weekly – The weekly bar breaks the October ’23 Median Line support.  Trade pressures remain down. Volumes remain bearish. A close below 6742 confirmed the daily move lower. The next target lower is 6226. A close above 6668 would signal higher.

Daily – Flat.  Trade pressures are down. Volumes are again bearish.

At the 6399 target. The next target down is 6291. The expected oversold level declines to 6426.

A close above 6497 would signal higher (bear market rally back to the 200 day MA?). The expected overbought level declines to 6701.

[OB/OS trend is declining.]
The VIX is rising above the Chop Range; placing hedges forces the market maker to do the opposite.

[3-27-26: VIX >29 in the red zone.]

__________________

Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is reset to start at $100,000 for the 2026 year.

These Navellier Top 5 portfolio stocks closed:
Down 35% for the 2022 Year.
    Up 17% for the 2023 Year.
    Up 42% for the 2024 Year.
    Up 48% for the 2025 Year

Portfolio stock values for 2026. 
The portfolio value is down hard for the week, at $113,000.
The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is up 13%.

The S&P 500 YTD return is – 5.38%

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXM26

Weekly –  In the new March 2026 uptrend. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are now bearish.

Daily – Long. finding resistance at 100 on 3/19. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are bearish.

The next target up is 101.68   Overhead resistance nearby. The expected overbought level declines to 100.36.

A close below 99.48 would signal lower. The expected oversold levels rise to 99.03.

[The OB/OS channel is narrowing.]

[3-27-26: Narrowing could presage a breakout. up or down.]

 

US30YR T-BOND_ USM26

Weekly – In the new March 2026 downtrend.  Trade pressures remain down.  Volumes remain bearish.

Daily  – Flat. Down to retest the lower median line parallel. Trade pressures remain down.  Volumes remain bearish.

Met the 112-00 target. The next target down is 110.54  Oversold levels decline to 112-01.

A close above 113-07 would signal higher. Overbought levels decline to 114-16.

[The OB/OS channel is declining.]

10yr yield near 4.44% and > OB.
Crude up, Inflation up, Yields up, USD up, SPX down

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLK26

Weekly – In the January 2026 uptrend. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes remain neutral.

Daily – Flat. The prior uptrend crashed to 84, now moving higher . Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are now bullish.

The next target up is 106.18. The expected overbought levels rise to 101.33.

A close below 95.11 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 87.52.

[OB/OS channel is rising.]
OVX (oil volatility) rises to 96; very high risk.   No trade.

(One of the larger components measuring inflation. The Hedgeye inflation nowcast now expects higher inflation in the 2nd quarter 2026.)

 

NAT GAS_ NGK26

Weekly – In the January 2025 uptrend. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone.  Volumes remain neutral.

Daily – Flat, Rising in a sideways channel between 2.80 and 3.30. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain bearish.

In the move up from 2.95. The next target up is 3.17.  The expected overbought level declines to 3.20.

A close below 3.00 would signal lower. The expected oversold level declines to 2.83.

[OB/OS channel is declining.]

[3-27-26: Watch for rising volumes.]

[3-29-26: Sunday evening open down hard. Missed the 3.00 short entry.]

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGK26

Weekly – In the October 2025 uptrend, testing support. Trade pressures remain down. Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Flat. Failed move up, now forming a bull flag. At the 5.31 support. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain bearish.

The next target down is 5.41. The expected oversold levels decline to 5.25.

A close above 5.57 would signal higher. The expected overbought levels decline to 5.69.

[OB/OS channel is declining.]

 

GOLD_ GCM26

Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend; traded below, but closed back above trend.  Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are now bullish.

Daily – Flat. In the new uptrend.  Trade pressures are down, but rising.  Volumes remain neutral.

Moved down and touched the 200 day MA at 4132; then bounced. The expected oversold level declines to 4278.

A close above 4718 would signal higher.  The expected overbought level declines to 4938.

[OB/OS channel is declining.]  GVX rises to 45 – in the chop zone.

 

SILVER_ SIK26

Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend. Trade pressures remain down.  Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Flat. Move down toward the 200 day MA turned up at 61. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone.  Volumes remain bearish.

The next target down is 66.42. The oversold levels decline to 65.

A close above 71 would signal higher.  Overbought levels rise to 76.

[OB/OS channel is widening.]