the president has declared the new “volker” initiative, which seems to be a move to reinstate Glass-Steagall, the separation of bank and investment bank activity. the immediate effect is to drive down those financials that have both bank and investment banking activity. “Many a slip twixt the cup and the lip.”

daily – have moved quickly toward the first downside target of 1103. once that is reached i would be alert for a retracement. the market is very oversold and the down cycle ends tomorrow. A trade thru 1116 would signal a short term retracement (very short term). then step back and look for the next move.

The long term Hurst cycles are turning down.

Long Term –
the 1142 target was met. the next up target is 1162. 1077 will restart the down move. as previously mentioned before the downward pressures are in force til the first weeks in March.

Daily –
we are in the latter part of the cycle ending Jan 22. the next target up is 1162. the down move today has taken the index close to the 1126 Entry Price for a correction to 1114 and 1093. However the intraday downside target was met near the close so expect some retracement up from that level.

Happy New Year!
This move up started just after Christmas Day. The dollar is rising which could mean many things; but whatever they are, money is flowing into the US currency. some of this money is finding its way to the US stock market. the first sector move was energy then tech. and now i expect a rotation out of those names that dominate these sectors. the indices are not moving as much but individual stocks are – telling us that within these indices money is moving from one group to another.

the investment banks and some money center banks are ready to move, so the financial group may a place to particiapte. the industrials have also lagged, and the larger construction companies seem to catch a bid. a more difficult group, the biotechs, could be ready to move.

so, to The S&P index
Long term –
we remain in the trade up. the next long cycle target is 1209. the 61% retracement level of 1234 will take us back to the crash level. the shorter cycle targets are 1142 and 1162.
the buying pressures are hard up and we are moving up despite the downward pressures of time, so if there is any move down, it will likely be sharp. this down cycle will end in the first week of March.
a trade thru 1074 will stop the move up.

daily –
the trade is up. next target is 1144.50.
entering down cycle which will end jan 22. 1116 starts a move down to 1093.

Ten different days have tried to breakout above the 1100-1105 levels. But the downward pressures seemed to have stopped them each time. buying pressures have resumed and the down cycle ended friday, resulting in the market move to the upside in the afternoon trading.

Long term –
all price objective levels remain the same. looking for the 1129 and then the 1162 price objectives. 1048 is the entry point for a new down leg.

Daily –
should be the most reactive this coming week. cycles are up and the buying pressures have turned back up. a trade thru the friday will activate targets near the recent highs; and any move beyond those highs will bring the longer term targets into range. a failure to make new highs and then a trade back below 1093 will be cautionary.

Intraday –
recognize the short cycle is still down with a target of 1084. will need a close above 1105 on an hourly basis to counter that cycle. The first hour on Monday will be interesting.

the market has moved sideways in a channel from the november 13th week to now; a death of a thousand cuts, if you are trying to trade short term. It is a result of conflicting cycles.

Long term –
we remain in the uptrend to the next targets of 1129 and 1162. a trade below 1048 will start a new downmove. we will encounter new downward pressures beginning january 15th lasting til mid march 2010.

Daily –
the trade down thru 1099 has started a down move to the first target of 1080 then 1074. The problem is that we are also in a longer cycle move up which started at 1089 and was stopped at 1117, but is still intact with the next target at 1134. daily pressures are turning down.

the 1089 area did not hold and we turned higher. the 1117 target was met. the first indication of an ease in unemployment was reflected in the unemployment rate decline from 10.2% to 10%. while a good sign for the economy, this rate decline eventually gives the Fed room to begin raising rates. Now is the time to look for companies with good balance sheets. the TBT at 46.53 is a way to participate in the increase in rates.

Long term –
the long cycle 1209 target remains and 913 will start a new down move. on a shorter cycle 1162 is the next target up. a new move down will be started with a trade thru 1049 with the first target at 980.

Daily –
the 1117-1119 targets have been met and are acting as resistance today. the next target up is 1144. It is Friday and the buying pressure is fully extended on both the daily and the intraday. a close below 1195 will start a new move down to 1080-1071.

abu dhabi, dubai … almost musical, in a Beatles sort of way.

we got the move up thru the 1099 and made a move up to 1112, but did not quite get the projected target of 1117. we had 4 try’s at these 1112 highs and failed. we also had two try’s at breaking down thru the 1080 level. the friday dubai news broke the 1080 barrier and we went quickly to and past the 1074 downside target. Intraday, we have completed a retracement up of that down move and await the next signal up or down.

Sun nite S&P at 1093.75.

Long term –
we remain in the uptrend with the next target of 1209. a trade down thru 913 would change to a down trend. a trade down thru 1042 will start a pull back inside that uptrend to 972. cycle pressures are turning down and some indication of selling pressure coming in.

Daily –
we are in the pullback, next downside target is 1054. a CLOSE above 1089 will bring stops in very close. these downward cycle pressures end 12-2.

if we get thru the 1099 high, the next target up is 1117;
a trade down thru 1080 would get the down move started to 1058 with a 1025
target below that.

timing?
the indicators are extended up. Ben’s PTI is signaling sell now.
i would have some tight stops on the long positions.

the S&P moved down to the 1026 level which corresponded to the median line support. is now moving up smartly in a retracement of the down move from 1099.

Long Term –
the next long term target on the upside is 1209. above that is the 62% retracement of the downmove from the 10/31/2007 high of 1590; it is 1243. a trade down thru 902 will be cause for concern. a break down below the median line will be the early warning.

Daily –
we expected a 1071 target. that 1071 has been met and the next up is 1081. this move up is still inside the 1099 down move. 1061 would signal a new move down to 1041. the current upward pressures end on 11/20.

we remain in the downtrade. we have reached the 1031 target. the next target down is 1009.
today’s trade above 1049 has signalled a possible retracement move to 1071. 1049 has acted as a resistance today; so looking for the second leg.

Long term –
still in the july move up with the next target at 1129. a trade down thru 1028 will start a new down move to 959.

Daily –
have entered a new up cycle. a close above 1071 will signal a further move up.