Long term is in an uptrend but enduring a correction. various moving averages have given the technicians support areas. Materials and machinery move and the financials seem ready for a bounce.

the S&P —
Long term –
the long cycle is in a long trade to 1209. 950 starts the new down trade to 752. both time and trade pressures are down.
the weekly has been in the short trade since 1079 with a 976 target. it completes a time cycle on the 26th and 1113 would trigger a long entry to 1186.

Daily –
the daily has reentered the long trade at 1072 with the first target of 1102, the recent retracement pivot. this first target will coincide with a moving average, so move the stops up tight near the target. a trade thru 1064 will restart the short trade.

China slowdown and the european union financials being impacted by smaller countries sent the dollar up and materials down. Did see a bounce at the end of the day on friday creating a doji.

Long term –
weekly has triggered the down trade from 1079. next target is 976. a trade back thru 1124 will be needed to restart the up trend. 2-26 is the end of these downward pressures.

Daily –
The entry for this down trade was 1081. the next target down is 1021 and 1005. 1072 will start a retracement up of this move down. again 2-26 is the daily cycle end. but need to take out the 1101 high of the recent down leg to get the buyers committed.

Lomg term remains the same. Testing the 1079 Entry Price down which is acting as resistance.

Daily –
low of 1070 in the overnight market then GDP comes in at 5.7%.
new uptrade at 1101 with a target of 1132,
but that 1101 price is also the end of the intraday move so expect a retracement before going thru the long EP.

March copper is still in a downtrend and extended, no validation for a recovery yet.

Bernanke, State of the Union, GDP, bank taxes ….

all is revealed in the numbers.

long term –
next upside target is 1162. the selling pressure is becoming evident in the long term charts but remain in the uptrade until 950 is breached. the shorter long term cycle has a short entry at 1078 with a 976 target.

Daily –
in the downtrade. the 1077 target was reached today. 1058 is the next target down, but have reached the end of the selling pressures. a retracement seems likely. need a trade thru 1109 to start a new uptrade.
Many oversold indications especially in the financial sector.

Long term – remain in the uptrade with the next target of 1162 still unmet. the trade down thru the lower of the prior week has put us near the EP for a short trade at 1079 which would activate a target of 976. 976 is just above the longer term monthly entry of 950. it will be very unpleasant there; if we are long or short.

Daily – as previously noted, the 1126 trade trigged short selling which quickly met two targets. the next target down is 1077. however the indicators would suggest prudence as a bounce next week would not be unlikely. a new uptrade would be signalled at 1119.

the Procter & Gamble’s, MacDonalds,Colgate, GE up on the day
and every hot stock in the metals, materials and tech sector is down dramatically.

S&P-
long term we remain in the bull move.
a weekly close below 1079 reverses the trade and would activate the 976 target.
950 on the monthly is the short entry price to 752.
the cycles finish in late feb and early march, so i expect the pressures in these next few weeks to give some indication how price will react.

But, whatever we think about the longer term, the daily triggered the 1126 sell signal and has quickly met the first two targets of 1103 and 1092. the next 1058 target is in reach.
at the Friday close, we are oversold with some intraday divergence, so i would look for consolidation off the 1092.

then see what the signals generate.

need a close above 1120 to get long again.

the president has declared the new “volker” initiative, which seems to be a move to reinstate Glass-Steagall, the separation of bank and investment bank activity. the immediate effect is to drive down those financials that have both bank and investment banking activity. “Many a slip twixt the cup and the lip.”

daily – have moved quickly toward the first downside target of 1103. once that is reached i would be alert for a retracement. the market is very oversold and the down cycle ends tomorrow. A trade thru 1116 would signal a short term retracement (very short term). then step back and look for the next move.

The long term Hurst cycles are turning down.

Long Term –
the 1142 target was met. the next up target is 1162. 1077 will restart the down move. as previously mentioned before the downward pressures are in force til the first weeks in March.

Daily –
we are in the latter part of the cycle ending Jan 22. the next target up is 1162. the down move today has taken the index close to the 1126 Entry Price for a correction to 1114 and 1093. However the intraday downside target was met near the close so expect some retracement up from that level.

Happy New Year!
This move up started just after Christmas Day. The dollar is rising which could mean many things; but whatever they are, money is flowing into the US currency. some of this money is finding its way to the US stock market. the first sector move was energy then tech. and now i expect a rotation out of those names that dominate these sectors. the indices are not moving as much but individual stocks are – telling us that within these indices money is moving from one group to another.

the investment banks and some money center banks are ready to move, so the financial group may a place to particiapte. the industrials have also lagged, and the larger construction companies seem to catch a bid. a more difficult group, the biotechs, could be ready to move.

so, to The S&P index
Long term –
we remain in the trade up. the next long cycle target is 1209. the 61% retracement level of 1234 will take us back to the crash level. the shorter cycle targets are 1142 and 1162.
the buying pressures are hard up and we are moving up despite the downward pressures of time, so if there is any move down, it will likely be sharp. this down cycle will end in the first week of March.
a trade thru 1074 will stop the move up.

daily –
the trade is up. next target is 1144.50.
entering down cycle which will end jan 22. 1116 starts a move down to 1093.

Ten different days have tried to breakout above the 1100-1105 levels. But the downward pressures seemed to have stopped them each time. buying pressures have resumed and the down cycle ended friday, resulting in the market move to the upside in the afternoon trading.

Long term –
all price objective levels remain the same. looking for the 1129 and then the 1162 price objectives. 1048 is the entry point for a new down leg.

Daily –
should be the most reactive this coming week. cycles are up and the buying pressures have turned back up. a trade thru the friday will activate targets near the recent highs; and any move beyond those highs will bring the longer term targets into range. a failure to make new highs and then a trade back below 1093 will be cautionary.

Intraday –
recognize the short cycle is still down with a target of 1084. will need a close above 1105 on an hourly basis to counter that cycle. The first hour on Monday will be interesting.