Trying to be aware of any change in the pressures on the different time frames. The volatility has increased which has generated  some large swing days.  Sellers seem to have the upper hand.  But, for every seller someone is a buyer.

Monthly – Price has closed below the 3 month moving average. Trade pressures are still up but have lost momentum. And for the first time is many months the volume is bearish.  2191 remains the upside target. the monthly short entry is 1869.

Weekly – For the last three weeks prior to Fridays close, price has trade down thru the short entry price for the weekly but closed above; until Friday’s close. The weekly has confirmed the short with the close below 2016.

Daily – has been short on the three month cycle from 2042.  The trade has met the 1978 target. The next target down is 1964 and the 200 day moving average.  Could have traded the counter trend retracement trade off the January 19th low at 1970 at the 2001 long entry back to 2048, but this is very choppy and the trend is down.

Trade pressures are down. Volume is bearish.  Need a close above the 2035 to start a new move up.

Monthly – Trade pressures remain up. Volume has turned neutral from bullish.next target up is 2191.
the monthly time cycles show downward pressures into June 2015.

Weekly – Trade pressures are down. Volume has turned neutral from bullish. Price has traded around the 2016 short entry for three weeks but no trigger yet. Be Alert! as this will confirm the Daily sell, and signal lower to 1904.

Daily  – the trade was short from the 2037 short entry on Jan 12th. Eventually traded down to the 80 day and other nearby targets around 1978.  the 1967 target and the 200 Day moving average are still active.

Trade pressures turned up as price closed above a short cycle retracement long entry at 2001 which was confirmed by a subsequent breakout above the pitchfork. The 2048 target was met and the move up was stopped on Friday by the 2062 pivot high.

Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish. The next target up is 2097.

a close below 2035 would restart the move down.

COPPER_ Each contract represents 25,000 lbs, so each move of a penny is worth $250.  China reported a 7.4% GDP growth vs an expected 7.5%. Still it is the lowest rate of growth since 1990. But as a net purchaser of energy, the recent declines in the price of oil should save china $100 billion this next year.

Weekly – Two weeks ago copper dropped thru the 2.64 target, spiked down, then recovered to close near that 2.64 level. This last week apparently in reaction to the China GDP report Copper dropped again as it touched the new resistance that was created by the 2.64 level, it then turned down again.  The next weekly target is 2.32. The trade pressures are down and the volume is neutral.

Daily – The Daily trade is up from the long entry of 2.52. But the Trade pressures have turned down. Volume is Bearish. Alcolse below 2.47 would signal lower and cause the trade to be stopped out.

GOLD_ Reacting to the European QE, Gold already in a long trade moved up to the 1276 and the 1304 targets.

Weekly – is moving up off the 1142 downside target. But has not yet triggered the 1426 long entry. Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish.

Daily – Is the in the long trade from the 1193 long entry. The next target up is 1344. Trade pressures are up and volume is bullish. A close below 1278 would signal a retracement down.

SILVER_  seems to be following gold, but at a slower pace.

Weekly – technically in a retracement of the long downward move from 21.50 to the 10.70 target. A close above 21.48 would restart the move up.  Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish.

Daily – in the long trade from the 15.61 entry after the spike down to 14.00. The next target up is 20.84.  Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish. A close below 16.64 would signal a new move down.

The ECB will announce their version of QE next week on Jan 22nd.   European stocks are already on the rise, the EC is down sharply with a 1.1410 target in sight.  The thinking is that the EC money will find its way into the stock markets including those US stocks with European exposure; that would include most all the large cap stocks in the S&P 500.

China announces their 4th Qtr GDP on Jan 20th.  With Europe in recession China’s growth rate becomes more important.

Monthly – Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish.
the next target up remains 2191.

Weekly – Trade pressures are up and volume is bullish.
the next target up is 2112. The week traded down thru the short entry but did not close below, so still long.

Daily – Down all week then rallied at the close on Friday. The 1977 target held support. the next target down is 1957 and the 200 day moving average. Trading pressures are down. Volume is bullish.

Need a close above 2028 to restart the move up.

Earnings season starts today, so watch for market moving announcements.

Monthly – Trade pressures are up and volume is bullish.
the next target up is 2191.

Weekly – Trade pressures are up but volume is neutral.
Currently retracing after touching the 2088 target. the next target up is 2112.

Daily – traded down to the 80 day moving average last week. Then began a retracement up which took price thru the long entry of 2014. the target of 2062 was touched and today Monday a new short entry of 2037 has been triggered with a target of 1997 (which is again the 80 day moving average).

Trade pressures are slightly up but volume is bearish.

a close above today’s high of 2048 could restart the move up.

Monthly  – Trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.
the next target up is 2191.

Weekly – Trade pressures are up. volume is neutral.
The weekly highs have touched the 2088 target two weeks.
the next target up is 2122.  the next short entry is 2016.

Daily – Trade pressures are down. volume is bearish.
in the short trade from 2065. the next target down is 2028.
[Met the 2028, the next target down is 1977 and the 80 Day]

further support is the 80 day MA at 1990.
[Update 1/6: now at the 80 day]

a close above 2068 2017 would signal higher.

[Update 1/7: closed the futures @ 2025.
Long entry triggered. Volume indicates neutral pressure, so this may be short covering,
may have a small pullback first then thru again.

This last week and the week between Christmas week and New Years Day should be very light;
and therefore difficult to generate reliable signals.

S&P 2015 earnings estimates at the end of December are 131.14.
(www.spindices.com/documents/additional-material/sp–500-eps-est.xlsx )
The December 24th closing price divided by the earnings estimate gives a current PE of 15.8.
For this next 2015 year, a P/E expansion to 20 x 131.14 would suggest a S&P value of 2622 for next year.
A recession value of 10 x could produce market risk down to 1310.

Monthly – trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.
next target up is 2191.

Weekly – trade pressures are up. volume is neutral and very light.
touched the 2088 target.

Daily – after trading down below the 80 day MA, now in the long trade from the 2028 entry price.
next target up is 2094.
trade pressures are up. volume is bullish but declining.

a close below 2065 would signal a move lower.

Near all time highs – again.

Monthly – trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.
the next target up is 2191.

Weekly – trade pressures are up. and volume is bullish.
upside targets up are 2086, then 2112.
BUT, the weekly 2002 short entry is still active until a close above 2072.
the weekly next target down is 1890.

Daily – traded down to the 1971 target and close to the 1947 target
then moved up thru the 2024 long entry with an upside target of 2094.
trade pressure up. volume is bullish.
Still need to take out the 2072.50 high.

the last weeks of this Christmas holiday should have much lower volumes.
Be careful; the market is up almost 15%, don’t give it back with foolish trading.

Mar ’15 contract

Monthly – Trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.
the next target up is 2191.

Weekly – trade pressures are up but extended. volume is bearish.
next target up is 2112.
the short entry is at 2002 with an 1890 target.

Daily – Trade pressures are down. volume is bearish.
short from the 2021 entry. next target down is 1971 (also the 80-day MA).

need a reversal to close above 2052 2024 to signal a new move up.