Market Summary:

Copper establishing new levels.  Gold rallies on more tariff news – sold the rip. Silver rallied off the 36 level.

Crude move down is at multiple supports.  Natural Gas move up failed, selling continues.

The US 30yr Treasury pulls back awaiting the CPI results. The 10yr yields now in the 4.20’s. The expected oversold level for the 10 yr yield is 4.11%

The US Dollar continues higher highs and higher lows in the long trade.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESU25

Monthly –Monthly bar trading above the prior month low. Trade pressures rising just above the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of July as bullish; again on lower volumes.  The 6468 price is the new adjusted high. The next target up is 6630. A close below 6157 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar found support and moved up off the 12/2024 trendline of the recent highs.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes have returned bullish.  The next target up is 6630.  A close below 6237 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Long. In the move up from 6290 on 8/4 to 6414.  A close below 6373 would trigger a short entry.  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are now bullish.

The close on 8/4 above 6290 signaled higher. Traded to 6426 resisitance on 8/7. Then pulled back, only to rally from from 6383 into the weekend .

The next target up is 6450. The expected overbought level declines to 6423. So, expect reisistance.

The next target down is 6118. The expected oversold level declines to 6251.

A lower than expected Tuesday CPI report will set the tone.

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Market Summary:

Copper after crash settles at the mid 4’s.  Gold now backtesting the prior break down. Silver decline consolidating at the weekend.

Crude retracing the mid-week breakout rally.  Natural Gas move up failed, selling continues.

The US 30yr Treasury continues rally. The 10yr yields now in the 4.20’s.

The US Dollar continues the long trade.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESU25

Monthly –Monthly bar closes just above the prior month low. Trade pressures rising just above the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of July as bullish; again on lower volumes.  The 6468 price is the new adjusted high. The next target up is 6630. A close below 6157 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar has pulled back to the 12/2024 trendline of the recent highs, which is now acting as support.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes have turned bearish.  The next target up is 6630.  A close below 6137 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat. In the move down from the new downtrend on 7-31.  A close below 6220 would trigger a short entry.  Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone.  Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 6118. The expected oversold level rises to 6276, so some rally attempt is likely.

A close above 6290 would signal higher.  The expected overbought level declines to 6423, so this OB/OS range is closing.

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Market Summary:

Copper crashes on new punitive tariffs.  Gold continues down out out of the July bear flag. Silver down off the 38.91 highes.

Crude rallies off the consolidation after the June move down.  Natural Gas move up fails, selling continues.

The US 30yr Treasury rallies after the CPI report on July 17th. The 10yr yields now in the 4.30’s.

The US Dollar did move lower, but now in another long trade.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESU25

Monthly –Monthly bar another new all time high. Trade pressures remain in the neutral zone, but rising. Volumes closed the month of June as bullish; again on lower volumes.  The 6335 price remains the new adjusted high. The next target up is 6506. A close below 5907 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar continues above the trendline of the recent highs, which is now acting as support.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish.  The next target up is 6536.  A close below 6127 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat. Still in the move up from 6082 on 6/24. Stopped out of the long trade at 6267 on 7/7.  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are neutral.

The next target up is 6526. Still very OB.  The expected overbought level rises to 6426.

A close below the April Trendline at 6230 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 6257.

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Market Summary:

Copper breaks out to OB resistance.  Gold moves up out of the June bull flag. Silver up sharply at the end of the week. All are inflation trades.

Crude sold down on another tariff volley, but it is an inflation trade also.  Natural Gas in a new move up.

The US 30yr Treasury selling off into the CPI report on July 17th. The 10yr yields now in the 4.40’s.

The US Dollar did move lower, but now in a new long trade.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESU25

Monthly –Monthly bar new all time high. Trade pressures remain in the neutral zone, but rising. Volumes closed the month of June as bullish; again on slightly lower volumes.  The 6335 price remains the new adjusted high. The next target up is 6512. A close below 5893 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar breaks above the trendline of the recent highs which is now acting as support.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish.  The next target up is 6514.  A close below 6004 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat. Still in the move up from 6082 on 6/24. Stopped out of the long trade at 6267 on 7/7.  Trade pressures are up but turning down.  Volumes are neutral.

The next target up is 6389. Still very OB.  The expected overbought level rises to 6311.

A close below the April Trendline at 6254 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 6141.

(Still can buy the dips inside a 200 point move down.)

7-17-25: CPI report expects rise in inflation. maybe less than expected? A market mover, nonetheless.

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Market Summary:

Copper breaks out to OB.  Gold breaks down. Silver in correction.

Crude short worked, now in consolidation at 200 Day MA.  Natural Gas shorts are covering.

The US 30yr Treasury expect yields lower, The CPI on July 17th is projected higher. The 10yr yields now in the 4.20’s.

The US Dollar attempt to rally failed. Looks lower still.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESU25

Monthly –Monthly bar above prior month high in rally  mode. Trade pressures remain in the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of June as neutral; againon lower volumes.  The 6285 price remains the adjusted high. The next target up is 6246. A close below 5865 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar remains above the October median line, which is acting as support.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes are now bullish.  The next target up is a nearby 6248.  A close below 5908 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Long. In the move up from 6050 on 6/23.   Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 6241. Very OB.  The expected overbought level rises to 6174.

A close below 6070 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 5960.

[Set the SL at 6118.]

[7-1-25: Raise the SL to 6222.]

[7-3-25: Raise the SL to 6247.]

[7-7-25: Sell at 6267.]

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Market Summary:

Copper move up is muted.  Gold in another bull flag; in negative correlation with the USD. Silver spiked on war news, then gives it all back.

Crude moved sharply higher but now prepping for a short.  Natural Gas now short.

The US 30yr Treasury expect yields lower. The 10yr yields now in the 4.30’s.

The US Dollar now long off the low pivot.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESU25

Monthly –Monthly bar above prior month month high but still selling off. Trade pressures remain in the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of May as neutral; and on lower volumes.  The 6285 price remains the adjusted high. The next target up is 6246. A close below 5850 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar remains above the October median line which is acting as support.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain are now neutral.  The next target up is 6248.  A close below 5897 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat.  Stopped out of the short trade for a gain.   Trade pressures are down but rising.  Volumes remain bearish.

This move down has created yet another lower high. The next target down is 5996. The expected oversold level rises to 5935.

A close above 6050 would signal higher. The next target up is 6090. The expected overbought level rises to 6068.

In the rising price channel between 5935 and 6068.
VIX is at 20.6, also in a channel between 15 and 22 (= Chop). Any break above 22 is a warning signal for the equity markets.

But, for now, can buy equities with VIX dips back to 15. Rallies above 22.

[6-23-25: The break above 6050 signaled higher. The SL is now 6134.]

[6-26-25: Now testing the upper channel resistance at 6165. VIX is at 16.7, its lower bound.]

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Market Summary:

Copper OS and in new move up.  Gold breaks out of the new bull flag. Silver consolidating after the move higher.

Crude moves sharply hoigher on the Iran=Israeli conflict.  Natural Gas now consolidating.

The US 30yr Treasury expect yields lower. The 10yr yields now in the 4.40’s.

The US Dollar still basing near two year lows.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESU25 (Contract rolls Monday)

Monthly –Monthly bar above prior month month high but selling off. Trade pressures remain in the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of May as neutral; on lower volumes.  The 6233 price remains the adjusted high. The next target up remains 6196. A close below 5811 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar is above the October median line which is acting as support for now.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish.  The next target up is 6193.  A close below 5714 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat.  Stopped out of the long trade. The close below 6050 has signal lower.  (Look for some price improvement to enter short.)  Trade pressures are up, but have turned down hard, to near the neutral zone. Volumes finished the week as bearish.

This move down has created a second lower high and a new 2hr downtrend. The next target down is 5998. The expected oversold level rises to 5890.

A close above 6082 would signal higher. The next target up is 6092. The expected overbought level rises to 6040.

[Any new short will have a SL of 6082.]

[6-16-25: A retracement pivot was created, then the Monday trade down thru 6072 was the short entry. SL at 3082 remains.]

[6-19-25: Lower SL to 6027. A close above 6073 would signal higher.]

[6-20-25: Stopped out at 6027. Flat.]

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Market Summary:

Copper rallied to OB.  Gold showing lower in a bear flag. Silver moves sharply higher.

Crude grinding higher.  Natural Gas now moving sideways in a wide range – choppy.

The US 30yr Treasury long stopped out. The 10yr yields remain in the 4.50’s.

The US Dollar is basing near two year lows.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESM25

Monthly –Monthly bar continues the move up past prior month high. Trade pressures remain in the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of May as neutral; on lower volumes.  The 6233 price remains the adjusted high. The next target up remains 6196. A close below 5802 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar is above the October median line which is acting as support for now.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish but declining.  The next target up is 6197.  A close below 5694 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Long.  In the new move up from 5972 on 6/6. Trade pressures are up. Volumes finished the week as bullish.

The next target up is 6189 . The expected overbought level rises to 6025.

A close below 5770 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 5806.

[6-7-25: Set the SL at 5886.]

[6-9-25: Raise the SL to 5979.]

[6-11-25: Raise the SL to 6013.] [stopped out on the pm session.]

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Market Summary:

Copper is retracing the move up to resistance.  Gold showing successive lower highs. Silver in second bull flag.

Crudebreaks out of bullflag once again.  Natural Gas now short.

The US 30yr Treasury is a new long. The 10yr yields return to the 4.50’s.

The US Dollar is at support.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESM25

Monthly –Monthly bar closes well above the prior month high. Trade pressures remain in the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of May as neutral; on lower volumes.  The 6233 price remains the adjusted high. The next target up remains 6196. A close below 5770 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar is above the October median line which is acting as support for now.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish.  The next target up is 6197.  A close below 5677 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat.  In the retracement move down and touched the 61% target of 5861 on 5/30, which could act as support. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes again choppy and finished the week as bearish.

The next target down is 5771. The expected oversold level rises to 5760.

A close above 5972 would signal higher. The expected overbought level rises to 6013.

[6-6-25: New Long entry at 5972. SL is 5929.]

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Market Summary:

Copper had sharp rally to resisitance.  Gold rallies to the April trendline. Silver breaks out of bull flag.

Crudebreaks out of bullflag.  Natural Gas remains in the pullback.

The US 30yr Treasury is again lower. The 10yr yields rise to the 4.50’s.

The US Dollar is a short.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESM25

Monthly –Monthly bar closes off the rally highs. Trade pressures remain in the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of April as bullish.  The 6233 price remains the adjusted high. The next target up is 6196. A close below 5754 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar is above the October median line, but retracing.  Trade pressures rising to the neutral zone. Volumes remain bullish.  The next target up is 6200. A close below 5662 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Long.  In the move up from 5855 on 5/26. Trade pressures are down but rising, but declining. Volumes choppy but finished the week as bullish.

A close above 5855 signaled higher. The next target up is 5976. The expected overbought level rises to 6001.

A close below 5857 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 5702.

[5-26-25: Stopped out in the Memorial Day trading at 5849. Now a long trade after the bull flag breakout on the 120 min chart at 5855.]

[5-27-25: Set the SL at the BE, 5855.][Raise the SL to 5902.]

[5-28-25: Rasie the SL to 5912.]

[5-29-25: %912 stop triggers sale.]

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