Market Summary:

Copper spikes on mine accident.  Gold consolidating at the highs.  Silver continues the move much higher.

Crude breaks higher in the bear channel.  Natural Gas fails, rally turns into consolidation.

The US 30yr Treasury up but seeing resisitance.
The 10yr yields rise to the 4.20’s. The expected oversold level for the 10yr yield moves down to 4.01%

The US Dollar rises on higher rates.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESZ25

Monthly –Monthly bar trading again above the prior month high. Trade pressures are up. Volumes closed the month of August as bullish.  The 6756 price is the new adjusted high. The next target up is 6776. A close below 6446 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar continues to make new highs.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain barely bullish.  The next target up is 6776.  A close below 6426 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat. stopped out at 6675. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are bearish.

The next target up is 6776. The expected overbought level rises to 6699.

A close below 6641 would trigger a short entry.  The expected oversold level rises to 6554.

[OB/OS trend is rising.]

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Market Summary:

Copper grinding higher in the narrow channel.  Gold long from the 8/22 breakout.  Silver closes the week with a break higher.

Crude a short.  Natural Gas fails to rally.

The US 30yr Treasury down after FED meeting.
The 10yr yields rise to the 4.10’s. The expected oversold level for the 10yr yield remains 4.06%

The US Dollar rises after the rate cuts.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESZ25

Monthly –Monthly bar trading again above the prior month high. Trade pressures rising above the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of August as bullish.  The 6731 price is the new adjusted high. The next target up is 6776. A close below 6420 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar continues to make new highs.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish.  The next target up is 6776.  A close below 6400 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Long. From the 9/9 entry at 6579. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain bullish.

The next target up is 6776. The expected overbought level rises to 6675.

A close below 6658 would trigger a short entry.  The expected oversold level rises to 6475.

[OB/OS trend now rising.]

[Set the SL at 6675.]
[9-25-25: Stopped out.]

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Market Summary:

Copper in a second leg up.  Gold long from the 8/22 breakout.  Silver breaks above 42 resisitance.

Crude another long.  Natural Gas continiues the move up.

The US 30yr Treasury up on FED meeting.
The 10yr yields in the 4.05’s. The expected oversold level for the 10yr yield is 4.06%

The US Dollar breaks the lower channel support anticipating lower rates. Recession fears?

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESZ25

Monthly –Monthly bar trading again above the prior month high. Trade pressures rising above the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of August as bullish.  The 6696 price is the new adjusted high. The next target up is 6687. A close below 6372 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar continues to make new highs.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish.  The next target up is 6687.  A close below 6368 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat. Stopped out of the move up from 6465 on 8/26. Now oversold into the FED print. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain bullish.

The 9/6 selloff setup a new long entry at 6579 on 9/9.

The next target up is 6695. The expected overbought level rises to 6644.

A close below 6658 would trigger a short entry.  The expected oversold level rises to 6475.

[OB/OS trend now rising.]

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Market Summary:

Copper is a new long.  Gold long from the 8/22 breakout.  Silver breaks above 40.

Crude a new long, remains near OB levels.  Natural Gas breaks out of the move down.

The US 30yr Treasury down on an uptick in inflation projections.
The 10yr yields stay in the 4.20’s. The expected oversold level for the 10yr yield is 4.19%

The US Dollar breaks the lower channel support. Tariffs are the new question?

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESU25

Monthly –Monthly bar trading again above the prior month high. Trade pressures rising just above the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of July as bullish.  The 6523 price is the new adjusted high. The next target up is 6630. A close below 6212 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar continues to make new highs.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish.  The next target up is 6630.  A close below 6325 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Long. In the new move up from 6465 on 8/26.  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain bullish.

The next target up is 6526. The expected overbought level rises to 6534.

A close below 6459 would trigger a short entry.  The expected oversold level rises to 6348.

[OB/OS trend now rising. But reaction to tariff court decision will be important.

[8-31-25: Raise the SL to 6460.]

[9-1-25: sun session. Stopped out at the 6460 SL.]

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Market Summary:

Copper testing the short term trend for a break above.  Gold long on FED rate comments.  Silver Had a nove short then ripped higher.

Crude a new long, but near OB levels.  Natural Gas contimues the move down.

The US 30yr Treasury up on FED comments. The 10yr yields now in the 4.20’s. The expected oversold level for the 10yr yield is 4.21%

The US Dollar breaks the lower channel support as the interest rates decline.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESU25

Monthly –Monthly bar trading above the prior month high. Trade pressures rising just above the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of July as bullish; again on lower volumes.  The 6508 price remains the new adjusted high. The next target up is 6630. A close below 6196 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar continues to make new highs.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish.  The next target up is 6630.  A close below 6337 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat. Out of the short trade at 6430 on 8/22.  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain bullish.

The next target up is 6497. The expected overbought level declines to 6508.

A close below 6459 would trigger a short entry.  The expected oversold level declines to 6326.

[OB/OS trend declining. Watch Monday’s trading for adjustments after the FED rally on Friday.]

[8-26-25: Long from 6465. SL at 6430.]

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Market Summary:

Copper grinding higher.  Gold down after the rip above 3500.  Silver showing a lower high..

Crude consolidating below the 200 day MA..  Natural Gas move down now seeing some covering.

The US 30yr Treasury down on better than expected inflation reading. The 10yr yields now in the 4.30’s. The expected oversold level for the 10yr yield is 4.17%

The US Dollar continues higher highs and higher lows in the long trade. At the lower channel support now.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESU25

Monthly –Monthly bar trading above the prior month low. Trade pressures rising just above the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of July as bullish; again on lower volumes.  The 6508 price is the new adjusted high. The next target up is 6630. A close below 6196 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar found support and moved up off the 12/2024 trendline across the recent highs.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish.  The next target up is 6630.  A close below 6283 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Long. In the move up from 6290 on 8/4 to 6508.  The next move down is from 6451. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain bullish.

The next target up is 6522. The expected overbought level rises to 6512. (So, expect higher highs?)

A close below 6451 would trigger a short entry.  The expected oversold level rises to 6321.

CPI increase was less than expected, but now inflation may resume its increase, projected to rise in the 4th quarter.

[8-19-25: Short entry triggered at 6451. Next target down is 6394. SL at 6476.]

[8-20-25: Lower the SL to BE, 6451. TP at 6326.]

[8-21-25: Lower the SL to 6430. TP at 6326.]

[8-22-25: SL triggered at 6430.]

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Market Summary:

Copper establishing new levels.  Gold rallies on more tariff news – sold the rip. Silver rallied off the 36 level.

Crude move down is at multiple supports.  Natural Gas move up failed, selling continues.

The US 30yr Treasury pulls back awaiting the CPI results. The 10yr yields now in the 4.20’s. The expected oversold level for the 10 yr yield is 4.11%

The US Dollar continues higher highs and higher lows in the long trade.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESU25

Monthly –Monthly bar trading above the prior month low. Trade pressures rising just above the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of July as bullish; again on lower volumes.  The 6468 price is the new adjusted high. The next target up is 6630. A close below 6157 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar found support and moved up off the 12/2024 trendline of the recent highs.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes have returned bullish.  The next target up is 6630.  A close below 6237 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Long. In the move up from 6290 on 8/4 to 6414.  A close below 6373 would trigger a short entry.  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are now bullish.

The close on 8/4 above 6290 signaled higher. Traded to 6426 resisitance on 8/7. Then pulled back, only to rally from from 6383 into the weekend .

The next target up is 6450. The expected overbought level declines to 6423. So, expect reisistance.

The next target down is 6118. The expected oversold level declines to 6251.

A lower than expected Tuesday CPI report will set the tone.

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Market Summary:

Copper after crash settles at the mid 4’s.  Gold now backtesting the prior break down. Silver decline consolidating at the weekend.

Crude retracing the mid-week breakout rally.  Natural Gas move up failed, selling continues.

The US 30yr Treasury continues rally. The 10yr yields now in the 4.20’s.

The US Dollar continues the long trade.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESU25

Monthly –Monthly bar closes just above the prior month low. Trade pressures rising just above the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of July as bullish; again on lower volumes.  The 6468 price is the new adjusted high. The next target up is 6630. A close below 6157 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar has pulled back to the 12/2024 trendline of the recent highs, which is now acting as support.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes have turned bearish.  The next target up is 6630.  A close below 6137 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat. In the move down from the new downtrend on 7-31.  A close below 6220 would trigger a short entry.  Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone.  Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 6118. The expected oversold level rises to 6276, so some rally attempt is likely.

A close above 6290 would signal higher.  The expected overbought level declines to 6423, so this OB/OS range is closing.

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Market Summary:

Copper crashes on new punitive tariffs.  Gold continues down out out of the July bear flag. Silver down off the 38.91 highes.

Crude rallies off the consolidation after the June move down.  Natural Gas move up fails, selling continues.

The US 30yr Treasury rallies after the CPI report on July 17th. The 10yr yields now in the 4.30’s.

The US Dollar did move lower, but now in another long trade.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESU25

Monthly –Monthly bar another new all time high. Trade pressures remain in the neutral zone, but rising. Volumes closed the month of June as bullish; again on lower volumes.  The 6335 price remains the new adjusted high. The next target up is 6506. A close below 5907 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar continues above the trendline of the recent highs, which is now acting as support.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish.  The next target up is 6536.  A close below 6127 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat. Still in the move up from 6082 on 6/24. Stopped out of the long trade at 6267 on 7/7.  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are neutral.

The next target up is 6526. Still very OB.  The expected overbought level rises to 6426.

A close below the April Trendline at 6230 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 6257.

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Market Summary:

Copper breaks out to OB resistance.  Gold moves up out of the June bull flag. Silver up sharply at the end of the week. All are inflation trades.

Crude sold down on another tariff volley, but it is an inflation trade also.  Natural Gas in a new move up.

The US 30yr Treasury selling off into the CPI report on July 17th. The 10yr yields now in the 4.40’s.

The US Dollar did move lower, but now in a new long trade.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESU25

Monthly –Monthly bar new all time high. Trade pressures remain in the neutral zone, but rising. Volumes closed the month of June as bullish; again on slightly lower volumes.  The 6335 price remains the new adjusted high. The next target up is 6512. A close below 5893 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar breaks above the trendline of the recent highs which is now acting as support.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish.  The next target up is 6514.  A close below 6004 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat. Still in the move up from 6082 on 6/24. Stopped out of the long trade at 6267 on 7/7.  Trade pressures are up but turning down.  Volumes are neutral.

The next target up is 6389. Still very OB.  The expected overbought level rises to 6311.

A close below the April Trendline at 6254 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 6141.

(Still can buy the dips inside a 200 point move down.)

7-17-25: CPI report expects rise in inflation. maybe less than expected? A market mover, nonetheless.

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