Market Summary:

Copper met upside resistance, turned down and immdeiately reversed to recovery highs. Gold choppy, but with an upward bias. Silver’s one day selloff inside the uptrend is reversed immediately to new highs.

Crude showing higher lows, but at resistance.  Natural Gas trying to find support.

The US 30yr Treasury holding support at the 200 day MA.
The 10yr yields trade around 4.15%.
The expected oversold level for the 10yr yield rises to 4.10%

The US Dollar trading up off 97.50 low, but 200 day MA acting as resistance.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESH26

Monthly –Monthly bar consolidating around 6800 off the 6975 highs. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of November as bullish.  The 7013 price remains the adjusted high. The next target down is 6702. A close below 6702 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar rallies back into the uptrend.  Trade pressures are up, but continuing to turn down. Volumes remain neutral and continue to rise. The upper median line parallel at 6929 acting as resistance.  The prior high pivot at 7013 is the target. A close below 6663 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Long. In the move up off the 6774 prior low pivot on 12/17. New long trade from 6852 on 12/19.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes are now neutral.

The next target up is 6929.  The expected overbought level declines to 6937.

Resistance at 7002. The next target down is 6842. The expected oversold level declines to 6712.

[12-20-25: The OB/OS trend is down, so tight stops. Set the SL at 6826.]

[OB/OS trend is declining.]

[12-20: Despite the downturn, VIX remains in the teens – allowing a “buy the dips” strategy.]

[12-22-25: At the 6929 target. Raise the SL to 6882.]

[12-23-25: Raise the SL to 6916.]

[12-24-25: Sell @ 6961. Done for the year.]

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Market Summary:

Copper meets upside resistance and turns down.  Gold spikes higher and turns down. Silver breaks above multi-year highs and turns down.

Crude showing higher lows after failed long entry .  Natural Gas crashes from 5.49 high.

The US 30yr Treasury moves down to 200 day MA.
The 10yr yields trade back up above 4.19%.
The expected oversold level for the 10yr yield rises to 4.02%

The US Dollar continues lower.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESH26

Monthly –Monthly bar consolidating around 6800 off the 6975 highs. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of November as bullish.  The 6975 price remains the adjusted high. The next target down is 6664. A close below 6664 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar rallies back into the uptrend.  Trade pressures are up, but continuing to turn down. Volumes are neutral and rising. Price closes at the upper median line parallel at 6890.  The prior high pivot at 6953 is the target. A close below 6603 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat. The prior breakout fails. In the move down from 6988 highs, closing at 6890. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 6842. The expected oversold level rises to 6812. (and should act as support)

The next target up is 7087.  The expected overbought level declines to 6937.

[OB/OS trend is widening.]

[12-12: VIX remains in the teens – allowing “buy the dips”.  Look for pullback toward mid-to-low 6800’s to re-enter long trade.]

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Market Summary:

Copper continues the rally.  Gold retested lower highs and Silver breaks above multi-year highs.

Crude breaks out in a new long trade.  Natural Gas in breakout to test June 2025 highs.

The US 30yr Treasury new move up fails.
The 10yr yields trade back up above 4.10%. The expected oversold level for the 10yr yield declines to 3.96%

The US Dollar breaks below 200 day MA as breakout fails.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESH26

Monthly –Monthly bar consolidating around 6800 off the 6953 highs. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of November as bullish.  The 6953 price remains the adjusted high. The next target down is 6643. A close below 6643 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar rallies back into the uptrend.  Trade pressures are up, but continuing to turn down. Volumes are bullish, but on lower volumes. The next target up is the upper median line parallel at 6899.  A close below 6603 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Long. Long trade stopped out at 6804. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes remain bullish.

The next target up is 7028.  6891 is resistance and a breakout would be significant. The expected overbought level rises to 6956.

A close below 6838 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 6720.

[OB/OS trend is rising.]

[12-6: VIX in the teens. Look for pullback toward mid-to-low 6800’s to re-enter long trade.]

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Market Summary:

Copper in a new long.  Gold is long,retesting prior highs and Silver long breaks out to new highs.

Crude lower in a bull flag.  Natural Gas in move up, breakout to test prior high.

The US 30yr Treasury in new move up and out of the bull flag.
The 10yr yields trade back up above 4.00%. The expected oversold level for the 10yr yield declines to 3.97%

The US Dollar breaks out above 200 day MA and is now backtesting that breakout.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESZ25

Monthly –Monthly bar recovering from correction to 6525, off the 6953 highs. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of November as bullish.  The 6953 price remains the adjusted high. The next target down is 6643. A close below 6643 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar rallies hard; up off the 6525 low pivot.  Trade pressures are up, but continuing to turn down. Volumes are neutral. The next target up is the upper median line parallel at 6907.  A close below 6603 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Long. In the move up from 6653 on 11/24. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 6921.  6903 is resistance. The expected overbought level rises to 6804.

A close below 6792 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 6508.

[OB/OS trend is rising.]

[Set the SL at 6804.]

[12-1-25: Stopped out at 6804 overnight.]

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Market Summary:

Copper in a new long.  Precious metals lower volatility. Gold in neutral zone and Silver trying to breakout.

Crude lower, failed any long entry.  Natural Gas in move up, consolidating.

The US 30yr Treasury in new move up.
The 10yr yields trade below 4.10%. The expected oversold level for the 10yr yield rises to 4.06%

The US Dollar breaks out above 200 day MA.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESZ25

Monthly –Monthly bar in correction off 6953 highs. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of October as bullish on rising volumes.  The 6953 price remains the adjusted high. The next target down is 6295. A close below 6643 would confirm the potential weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar declines below of the prior week low.  Trade pressures are up, but turning down. Volumes remain bearish. The next target up is the upper median line parallel at 6907.  Very near a close below 6603, which would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat. In the move down from the lower high on 11/13. A failed rally after the NVDA earnings sends the market down hard to a 6525 low pivot on 11/21. Trade pressures are down. Volumes were bearish all week.

Uptrend channel support from May 2025 had held 5 times; too many tests, then failed. The next target down is 6409. The expected oversold level declines to 6491.

A close above 6653 would signal higher. 6735 is resistance ->. The expected overbought level declines to 6726.

[OB/OS trend is declining.]

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Market Summary:

Copper in downtrend and approaching oversold.  Precious metals show high volatility. Gold has100 pt moves and Silver full 1 pt moves.

Crude whipsaws, setting up for a new long.  Natural Gas in move up, showing resisitance.

The US 30yr Treasury in move down, near OS.
The 10yr yields continue to trade above 4.10%. The expected oversold level for the 10yr yield rises to 4.03%

The US Dollar pulls back near OS levels.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESZ25

Monthly –Monthly bar in correction off 6953 highs. Trade pressures are up. Volumes closed the month of October as bullish on rising volumes.  The 6953 price remains the adjusted high. The next target up is 7148. A close below 6643 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar declines to support but falls short of the prior week low.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bearish. The next target up is the upper median line parallel at 6918.  A close below 6603 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat. breaks out of the bull flag at 6829 on 11/10. Then, gets stopped out of that move up at 6825 on 11/13 in the am trading. This move down backtests the prior bull flag. Trade pressures are down. Similar to prior week’s, volumes were bearish early in the week, but turned bullish at the Friday close.

Uptrend channel support from May 2025 has held 5 times, and now at 6725. The next target down remains 6603. The expected oversold level declines to 6699.

A close above 6802 would signal higher. [But, wait] 6801 is resistance. The expected overbought level declines to 6914.

Look for price near the OS levels for any long trades

[OB/OS trend is declining.]

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Market Summary:

Copper Flat, in pullback.  Gold and Silver consolidate at downside targets.

Crude setting up for a new long.  Natural Gas a new move up.

The US 30yr Treasury stopped out of long trade.
The 10yr yields trade above 4.10%. The expected oversold level for the 10yr yield rises to 3.95%

The US Dollar pulls back after 10yr yield rises.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESZ25

Monthly –Monthly bar trading corrects off new highs. Trade pressures are up. Volumes closed the month of October as bullish on rising volumes.  The 6953 price remains the adjusted high. The next target up is 7148. A close below 6643 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar declines to support at 6655.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes are now bearish. The next target up is the upper median line parallel at 6937.  A close below 6604 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat. In the corrective move down; channel forming a bull flag. Need a trade above 6800 to break out of the bull flag. Trade pressures are down. Volumes were bearish early in the week, but turned bullish at the Friday close.

Supports failed. The next target down is 6603. The expected oversold level rises to 6799.

A close above 6754 would signal higher. 6790 is resistance. The expected overbought level declines to 6941.

[OB/OS trend is widening.]

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Market Summary:

Copper long but in pullback.  Gold and Silver sell down to targets and in a bounce.

Crude a new long.  Natural Gas breaks resistance, choppy.

The US 30yr Treasury stopped out of long trade.
The 10yr yields trade above 4.00%. The expected oversold level for the 10yr yield declines to 3.92%

The US Dollar rises.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESZ25

Monthly –Monthly bar trading rallies to new highs. Trade pressures are up. Volumes closed the month of October as bullish on rising volumes.  The 6953 price is the adjusted high. The next target up is 7148. A close below 6643 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar rallies off the support at 6581 to new highs.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish. The next target up is the upper median line parallel at 7097.  A close below 6680 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat. In the corrective move down; forming a bull flag. Need a trade above 6908 to break out of the new bull flag. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes remain bullish.

The bull flag support is at 6832. The next target up is 7027. The expected overbought level rises to 6948.

A close below 6843 would signal lower.The expected oversold level rises to 6720.

[ 11-2-25: Set any long SL at 6827. Looking for a rally off support.]

[OB/OS trend is rising.]

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Market Summary:

Copper a new long entry.  Gold and Silver trigger multiple sell stops.

Crude a new long.  Natural Gas rallies to resistance.

The US 30yr Treasury in long trade.
The 10yr yields drop below 4.00%. The expected oversold level for the 10yr yield declines to 3.93%

The US Dollar rises on softer CPI and rate moves.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESZ25

Monthly –Monthly bar trading rallies to new highs. Trade pressures are up. Volumes closed the month of September as bullish.  The 6841 price is the adjusted high. The next target up is 7148. A close below 6530 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar rallies off the support at 6581 to new highs.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish.  The next target up is the prior high at 7072.  A close below 6567 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat. The channel lines are holding in an upward pattern. In the new move up from 6768 on 10/23. Trade pressures are up but very choppy.  Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 6852. The expected overbought level declines to 6788.

A close below 6767 would signal lower.The expected oversold level rises to 6648.

[OB/OS trend is narrowing.]

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Market Summary:

Tariff “not sustainable”. Copper approaching a new long entry.  Gold sells off $200.  Silver spikes to 52 then sells off with gold.

Crude move lower continues.  Natural Gas continues lower.

The US 30yr Treasury up, breaking weekly resisitance.
The 10yr yields drop to the 4.00’s. The expected oversold level for the 10yr yield declines to 3.93%

The US Dollar rises and falls on rate moves and EU talk of recession.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESZ25

Monthly –Monthly bar trading rallies to form the spinning top once again. Trade pressures are up. Volumes closed the month of September as bullish.  The 6812 price remains the adjusted high. The next target up is 6833. A close below 6501 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar drops to test the support at 6581.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes are now bullish.  The next target up is the prior high at 6812.  A close below 6461 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat. The lower channel line was tested twice, but so far has held at 6571. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone.  Volumes are bullish.

Looking for a pullback into the low 6600’s.The expected overbought level rises to 6804.

A close below 6667 may start the pullback. A break below 6461 would signal lower.The expected oversold level declines to 6553.

[OB/OS trend is widening.]

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