Category: Currencies

US$$

#usdollarfutures  #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXU18

Weekly – In the move up. Trade pressures are up but have rolled over. Volumes are neutral.

Daily – In the second leg up from the 94.29 entry. Trade pressures are down but pointing up once again. Volumes are bullish.

Price move up to the 95.75 upside target then turned down.

The 95.32 level was a new retracement short entry inside the move up. The next target down is the June low at 92.82.

A close above the 95.81 level would resume the move up.

 

US 30YR T-BONDS_  USZ18  (roll to Dec)

Weekly – Remains in the downtrend but this weekly close is the fourth test of the upside channel of 2018; four tops don’t usually hold. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Flat. In a retracement move up inside the larger move down. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral to bearish.

In this retracement move up from the 142-27 level. The next target up is 145-15.

A close below the 25×5 moving average at 143-12 would signal a resumption of the move down.

US$$

USD_ DXU18  #usdollarfutures

Weekly – In the uptrend. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes have changed from bullish to neutral.

Daily – The prior week’s breakout to the 97 area was quickly retraced. Trade pressures are now down. Volumes have changed fro neutral to bearish.

The new short entry and the 25×5 moving average resistance are both at 95.12. A break below that level would signal lower.

Uptrend support is just below the new short entry level.

The first target down is 92.52.

A close above the 96.67 prior high pivot is necessary to restart the move up.

 

US 30YR T-BONDS_ USU18  #ustreasurybondfutures

Weekly – The week’s rally is nearing a test of the June July highs. Trade pressures are up. Volumes have changed from neutral to bullish.

Daily – Flat. The 143-13 long entry was triggered in the week prior to this last week, but needed to wait for the break above the 25×5 moving average. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

Now at the first long profit target at 145-29 and expecting consolidation here,

The next target up is 148-13.

A close below the 25×5 moving average at 143-28 would signal lower.

Use that 143-28 level as the stop.

US$$

USD_ DXU18  #usdollarfutures

Weekly – New yearly highs. Trade pressures are up and trending. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – After consolidating around the 94.29 new long entry during June and July, price breaks above the upper channel boundary at 95. Trade pressures are up and trending all of August. Volumes were bullish until this week when they turned neutral.

At the 96.75 upside first profit target. The next target up is 99.21.

A close below 95.32 would signal a new outflow of funds from the dollar.

 

US 30 YR T-BONDS_ USU18  #ustreasurybondfutures

Weekly – May 18th was the low for the year. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are neutral. FED rates up vs the world attracts dollars that must go some where.

Daily – Flat. In the retracement move up while still inside the longer cycle move down. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 146-06.

A close below 144-01 would signal a resumption of the move down.

US$$

Weekly – Breaks out above the 95 area decisively. Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – The four tests of the 95 level result in a breakout. Trade pressures are up and trending. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 96.75.

A close below 94.76 would signal lower.

 

US #

30YR T-BONDS_ USU18  #ustreasurybondfutures

Weekly – Following the dollar move up. Trade pressures are now up into the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish to neutral.

Daily – Flat. In the new move up. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 145-29. But finding resistance here at the upper median line at 144-28 and the prior high at 146-11.

A close below 143-26 would signal lower.

 

 

 

US$$

USD_ DXU18  #usdollarfutures

Weekly – As before the Dollar is consolidating at the 95 level. Trade pressures are up but rolling over. Volumes are still bullish.

Daily – Who needs more dollars? The foreign buyers of US goods who are anticipating tariffs on their products. That demand seems to have tapered off. Trade pressures are still up. Volumes remain bullish.

Technically, experiencing a 4th retest of the 95.22 highs. 96.73 is the next target up if we breakout out of this consolidation.

A close below 93.67 would signal lower.

 

US 30 YR T-BONDS_ USU18  #ustreasurybondfutures

Weekly – A weekly move up off the potential MACD crossover. Trade pressures are down. Volumesa re bearish.

Daily – Flat. The short trade was taken out at the 61% target for a nice profit. Trade pressures are down and trending. Volumes remain bearish.

The next target down is 138-13.

A close above 143-13 would signal higher.

US$$

USD_  DXU18  #usdollarfutures

Weekly – Remains in the consolidation around the 95 level. Trade pressures are up but in a decline. Volumes have changed from bearish to bullish.

Daily – Three tests of the 95.22 level have failed to move higher. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are mixed bullish to bearish.

The 93.60 level is the next short entry.

The April to June rally, or the demand for dollars, probably reflected the external demand for US exports. Can’t be sure of the reasons but food and grain exports would logically be the focus.

 

US 30YR T-BONDS_ USU18  #ustreasurybondfutures

Weekly – The weekly tested the 25×5 moving average and failed. Trade pressures are now down. Volumes have changed from bullish to bearish.

Daily – Short. In the move down from the 144-23 short entry. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 142-03.

A close above 144-02 would signal a new move up.

Lower stops to this new long entry (144-02).

[7-31-18: lower stops to 143-30.]

[7-30-18: Take the new profit target at 142-02. ]

[8-1-18: Profit stop hit at 142-02]

Metals

COPPER_ HGU18  #copperfutures

Weekly – Six weeks down and now one week up. Trade pressures are down and trending. Volumes have changed from bearish to neutral.

Daily – Long. The trade above 2.76 triggers the retracement trade up. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes have turned bullish.

The next target up is 2.89. This is a retracement trade, so take the profit at that first target.

Set the stops at the pivot low of 2.67.

[7-29-18: Raise stops to break even at 2.76.]

[8-1-18: stopped out at the breakeven.]

 

GOLD_ GCZ18  #goldfutures

Weekly – In the second leg down. Trade pressures are down and trending. Volumes have changed back from bullish to bearish.

Daily – Flat. The August contract will expire. Close the trade with a small loss. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are mixed neutral to bullish.

The retracement trade didn’t work. Watch the December contract for a new entry.

 

SILVER_ SIU18  #silverfutures

Weekly – Eight weeks down. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Flat. Trading in a congestion around the retracement long entry. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

As with gold, any new long trade is a retracement trade inside the longer cycle move down.

The next target down is 14.81.

US$$

USD_ DXU18  #usdollarfutures

Weekly – Now Five weeks of consolidation at the 95 level. Trade pressures are up and trending. Volumes closed as bearish.

Daily – The mid-week run up retraced completely with Friday’s move down. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

Still in the move up from the 94.28 long entry level.

The next target up is 99.75.

A close below 93.67 would signal a new move lower.

 

US 30YR T-BONDS_ USU18  #ustreasurybondfutures

Weekly – Broke above the 25×5 moving average three weeks ago. This move down is testing that 25×5 for support. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Short. The move down thru 144-23 on Friday triggered this short entry. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now bearish.

The next target down is 142-02.

A close back above 145-17, the Friday high would cancel the trade.

Use that 145-17 as the stop.

Since the weekly is still showing upward pressures keep stops tight, moving them to break-even as soon as the market permits.

 

US$$

USD_ DXU18   #USdollarfutures

Weekly – Consolidating at the 95.00 level. Trade pressures are up and trending. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – After a test of the uptrend support at 93.31, the move up resumed. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are mixed, bullish to neutral.

The next target up is 96.75.

A close below 93.57 would signal lower.

 

US 30YR T-BONDS_ USU18  #ustreasurybondfutures

Weekly – 8 weeks up. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – Flat. In consolidation at the 146-03 target level. Trade pressures are up but declining . Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 148-19.

A close below 144-23 would signal a new move lower.

US$$

USD_ DXU18  #usdollarfutures

Weekly – The 4th of July week has the dollar in consolidation after reaching the 94.72 level. Trade pressures are up and extended. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – In the second leg up. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

The second leg up long entry at 94.29 appears to be about to fail. Price is at the new short entry level of 93.67. The uptrend support line is at 93.30. The 25×5 moving average is just above at 94.02.

If the short entry is triggered and the support fails, then the next target down is 91.18.

 

US 30 YR T-BONDS_ USU18  #ustreasurybondfutures

Weekly – In a four week move up inside the 2018 downtrend. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – Flat. In the move up from the 143-19 long entry price. Trade pressures are up and extended. Volumes remain bullish.

Now at the first target up at 146-03. The next target up is 148-19.

A close below 144-23 would signal lower.