Author: ChasW

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXZ23

Weekly –  In the new September 2023 uptrend. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes are now bullish.

Daily – Flat. In the move up off the 105.30 low pivot and approaching the 106.37 long entry.  Trade pressures are now up. Volumes are neutral.

The next target up is 107.58. The overbought levels are 107.06.

A close below 105.99 signals lower. The expected oversold levels are now 105.24.

 

US30YR T-BOND_ USZ23

Weekly – In the October 2021 downtrend and now the first week of a higher high above the prior week. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now bullish.

Daily  – Long. In the retracement up from the 11-25 long entry . Trade pressures are now up. Volumes remain bullish.

The close above 111-22 did signal higher and did change the trend to bullish.
Expected overbought levels are 118-07.

A close below 111-25 would signal lower. The expected oversold levels are 109-21.

[The higher time frame trend is still down so this is a short term trade, Use tight stops.]
SL is 111-26.

[10-16-23: Stopped out for a BW]

 

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLX23

Weekly – In a new August 2023 uptrend. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – Flat.  Did not have a chance to enter the Friday move up. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bullish.

The early morning trading Friday closed above 85.25 signaled higher; and at 87.69 is approaching resistance at 88.44. The expected overbought levels are 90.25.

A close below 86.59 would signal lower.  The expected oversold levels are now 82.31. 200 day MA support is at 76.84.

[rollover to Dec contract]

 

NAT GAS_ NGX23

Weekly – In the December 2022 downtrend; holding at long term support. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are remain bullish.

Daily – Flat. Broke down into a new downtrend at 3.37 on 10/11.  Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are now neutral.

The next target down is 3.10. The expected oversold level is 2.90.

A close above 3.31 would signal higher. The expected overbought level is 3.62.

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGZ23

Weekly – In the May 2023 downtrend. Trade pressures have broken down. Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Flat. Pulling back to test the 3.51 downside target.  Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

Need a close above the 3.66 level to enter a new long trade. The expected overbought levels are 3.70.

A close below  3.54 would signal lower. Expected oversold levels are now 3.50 to 3.45.

 

GOLD_ GCZ23

Weekly – In the new August 2023 downtrend, breaking the support levels. Trade pressures rise into the neutral zone. Volumes are now bullish.

Daily – Long. The 1853 entry was established 10-9. Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish.

Got the close above 1853 to enter a new long trade. The expected overbought levels are 1899. Price is well above the OB levels; so, is exposed to selling.

A close below 1870 would signal lower. The expected oversold levels are 1818.

SL at 1896.

[10-18-23: Raise SL to 1925]

[10-19-23: Raise SL to 1952.]

[10-20-23: Raise SL to 1983]

[10-24-23: Stopped out at 1983.]

 

SILVER_ SIZ23

Weekly – In the September 2023 downtrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral.

Daily – Long. Last Friday close above 21.63 signaled higher. Long 10/9 at 21.94.  Trade pressures up. Volumes remain  bullish.

At the 22.79 target up.  A back-test of trend line resistance is at 23.19. The next target up is 23.99. Overbought levels are 24.74.

A close below 22.19 signals lower.  Oversold levels are expected at 21.59.

Set the SL at the prior 22.42 upside target.

[10-18-23: Raise SL to 22.79 prior target.]

[10-19-23: SL triggered at 22.79.]

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Summary:

Copper oversold.  Gold down to 1825. Silver failed the prior long entry, but is looking higher once again.

The Crude is a short. Natural breaks the 290 resistance and is now overbought.

The US 30yr Treasury Bond is basing with bullish volumes.

The US Dollar futures is now a short.

_________________

S&P 500 Futures #ESZ23

Monthly – Monthly in the move down. Trade pressures are now down into the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of September as bearish. The next target down remains 4025. The close below 4373 had confirmed the weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly has reached the downside target of 4280. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes have closed the week as bullish. The close below 4583 confirmed the daily move lower. The next target down is 4030. A close above 4476 would confirm any Daily move higher.

Daily – Flat. Consolidating around the 4304 downside target.  Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bullish. The next target down is 4124. The expected oversold level is 4202. A close above 4423 would signal higher.  The expected overbought level is 4338.

___________________

Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is marked to the market and is restarted at $100,000 for the 2023 year.

The Navellier portfolio stocks closed down 35% for the 2022 Year.

Portfolio values closed at approximately $103,000. The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is now up 3%.

Quanta Svcs (PWR). Royal Caribbean Cruise (RCL), and Toll Brothers (TOL) will be replaced with Emcor Gp (EME), Eli Lilly (LLY), and Nivdia (NVDA) on Tuesday.

[The author may have long or short positions in any of the securities mentioned.]

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXZ23

Weekly –  In the new September 2023 uptrend. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Short. In the move down form the 105.79 short signal on 10/06.  Trade pressure is down. Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 104.54. The oversold levels are 105.30.

A close above 106.75 signal higher. The expected overbought levels are now 107.11.

 

US30YR T-BOND_ USZ23

Weekly – In the October 2021 downtrend and moving down and away from upside resistance. Trade pressures are down. Volumes remain bearish.

Daily  – Flat. Price sliding down the Median line, with four tests now around 110-111. Trade pressures are down. Volumes remain bullish.

At the 110-15 downside target. The expected oversold levels are 104-25.

A close above 111-22 would signal higher.  Need 116-21 to change the trend to bullish. Expected overbought levels are 120-22.

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLX23

Weekly – In a new August 2023 uptrend. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Flat. The drop thru 90.05 on 10/02 triggered the short trade. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes  remain bearish.

The next target down is 75.14.  The oversold levels are now 82.03. Support is at 76.66.

A close above 83.53 would signal higher but likely to find resistance at 88.00. The expected overbought levels are 95.53.

 

NAT GAS_ NGX23

Weekly – In the December 2022 downtrend; holding at long term support. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are now bullish.

Daily – Flat. big breakout at the 2.90 level on 10/03.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 3.52. The expected overbought level is 3.24.

A close below 3.14 would signal lower. The expected oversold level is 2.80.

 

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGZ23

Weekly – In the May 2023 downtrend. Trade pressures have broken down. Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Flat. Price sets a new 2023 low at 2.55, near the oversold levels of 3.50.  Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bullish.

Now rallying off the lows. The expected overbought levels are 3.73. Support at 3.57.

A close above 3.66 would signal higher. Expected overbought levels are now 3.83.

 

GOLD_ GCZ23

Weekly – In the new August 2023 downtrend, breaking the support levels. Trade pressures are down. Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Flat. Trade pressures are now down but rising. Volumes are now bullish.

The 1922 support failed as well as the 1903 downside target. At the next target down 1825. The expected oversold levels are 1803.

Need a close above 1853 to enter a new long trade. The expected overbought levels are 1883.

 

SILVER_ SIZ23

Weekly – In the April 2023 uptrend. Trade pressures are in the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral.

Daily – Flat. Stopped out at the 23.33 SL on 9/25. But the Friday close above 21.631 signals higher. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are again bullish.

Need a pullback to validate the base, then long at at second time thru 21.63. The next target up would be 22.42.  Overbought levels are 24.61.

A close below 20.93 signals lower.  Oversold levels are expected at 21.23.

Set the SL at 21.23.

 

Navellier top 5 stocks for October

The following is provided by Navellier with technical comment from South Ocean Management – pls do your own due diligence.

https://navelliergrowth.investorplace.com/

High-Growth Investments

Eli Lilly & Company

Eli Lilly & Company (LLY) was a new addition to the High-Growth Investments Buy List in September. The company is well-known for developing medicines and treatments to meet the needs of patients around the world. Over the past 147 years, Eli Lilly has developed approximately 100 drugs, and its products are marketed in about 110 countries.

In 2022, Eli Lilly’s treatments were used to help about 51 million people manage serious illnesses, including autoimmune diseases, cancer, diabetes and migraines. Eli Lilly is also developing treatments for blood cancer, ulcerative colitis, atopic dermatitis and Alzheimer’s disease. And Eli Lilly’s Type 2 diabetes treatment, Mounjaro, was one of the company’s biggest success stories of 2022, as it received FDA approval for the treatment of adults with Type 2 diabetes in May 2022.

Thanks to the popularity of Mounjaro and the success of its other treatments like Jardiance, Eli Lilly is expected to continue to achieve strong positive earnings and revenue growth. The company will report third-quarter results on November 2, and the current consensus estimate calls for earnings of $2.86 per share and revenue of $8.79 billion. That translates to 44.4% year-over-year earnings growth and 26.7% year-over-year revenue growth.

The analyst community has increased third-quarter earnings estimates by 23.3% in the past three months. As you know, positive analyst revisions typically precede future earnings surprises. LLY is a Conservative buy below $586.

SOM Technicals: 

10-07-23: Closed at 567.87. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are now bullish. The next target up is 575.41.

10-14-23: closed at 609.20. Trade pressures are up and trending. Volumes are now bearish. The next target up is 636.00. There is the large gap near 460 to fill.

 

EMCOR Group, Inc.

EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME), like Eli Lilly, was added to the High-Growth Investments Buy List in the September Monthly Issue. If you recall, EMCOR Group is a leading provider of electrical and mechanical construction, energy and industrial infrastructure and building services. The company provides its services and solutions through its three businesses: EMCOR Construction Services, EMCOR Building Services and EMCOR Industrial Services.

Thanks to its diverse service offerings and robust demand in nearly all its businesses, EMCOR Group is expected to achieve solid earnings and revenue growth for the foreseeable future. For the third quarter, analysts expect earnings to increase 28.2% year-over-year to $2.77 per share and for revenue to grow 11.8% year-over-year to $3.16 billion.

I should also add that EMCOR Group has a history of posting positive earnings surprises, as it posted a 28.9% and 25% earnings surprise in the first two quarters of 2023. Given that analysts have upped third-quarter earnings estimates by nearly 12% in the past three months, EMCOR Group is likely gearing up for another quarterly earnings surprise. EME is a Conservative buy below $229.

SOM Technicals: 

10–07-23: Closed at 206.72. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are now bullish. The next target up is 211.58.

10-14-23: Closed at 202.02. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 192.91.

 

Novo Nordisk A/S

Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO), like Eli Lilly, is a well-known drug manufacturer that has experienced increased demand for its weight-loss and diabetes drug, Wegovy. Wegovy is primarily for adults with obesity or who are overweight with medical problems. And thanks to strong demand for its weight-loss drugs, sales in its diabetes and obesity care business jumped 36% year-over-year in the second quarter.

Interestingly, Bloomberg reported this week that the market for weight-loss drugs like Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and Ozempic is anticipated to breach $100 billion by 2035. Given that Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy has been proven to reduce the risk of stroke and heart attack, the company is well-positioned to grab its fair share of this market.

So, it’s not too surprising that the company increased its overall sales forecast for fiscal year 2023. Novo Nordisk anticipates that full-year 2023 earnings will grow between 31% and 37%, which is up from previous forecasts for 24% to 30% annual earnings growth. Full-year revenue is expected to increase between 27% and 33%.

Now, due to the recent two-for-one stock split, the analyst community has adjusted earnings estimates for the third quarter accordingly. Third-quarter earnings are expected to grow 6.7% year-over-year to $0.48 per share, and revenue is forecast to rise 19.8% year-over-year to $7.82 billion. NVO is a Conservative buy below $97.

SOM Technicals: 

2-24-23: Closed at 141.60. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now neutral. The next target down is 188.22.

3-4-23: Closed at 144.90. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 149.62.

3-11-23: Closed at 141.29. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bearish. The next target down  is 134.71.

3-17-23: Closed at 139.44. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 134.74.

3-24-23: Closed at 152.76. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 159.89.

3-31-23: Closed at 159.14. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 177.85.

4-14-23: Closed at 168.60. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 177.65.

4-22-23: Closed at 172.65. Trade pressures are rising into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 177.65.

4-28-23: Closed at 167.09. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are now neutral. The next target down is 159.13.

5-7-23: Closed at 163.24. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are neutral. The next target up is 167.92.

5-13-23: Closed at 171.27. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 177.65.

5-20-23: Closed at 170.54. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 172.97.

5-27-23: Closed at 162.23. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 159.13.

6-3-23: Closed at 157.14. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now bullish. The next target down is 150.57.

6-10-23: Closed at 158.05. Trade pressures are down into the  neutral zone. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 153.05.

6-20-23: Closed at 159.698. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bullish. The next target down is 156.49.

6-24-23: Closed at 159.07. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 156.49.

8-25-23: Closed at 186.43. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 178.22.

9-1-23: Closed at 189.31. Trade pressures are down but turning  up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 191.19, the prior high.

9-8-23: Closed at 195.40. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is the 197.54 prior high.

9-16-23: Closed at 190.43. Trade pressures are down/ Volumes are bearish. Made the 201.76 high, but now in pullback mode. The next target down is 188.26.

9-23-23: Closed at 91.30. 2:1 stock split on September 20. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. volumes are bearish. The next target down is 89.95.

10-07-23: Closed at 92.21. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 93.92.

10-14-23: Closed at 102.14. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 100.52.

 

NVIDIA Corporation

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is a leading computer graphics company, with a portfolio of more than 8,000 active patents. The company’s technologies have been utilized by more than 40,000 companies, including 15,000 startups, since its founding in 1999. Today, NVIDIA is at the forefront of the artificial intelligence (AI) movement, as it dominates the AI chips that are used in everything from data centers to autonomous vehicles.

In my opinion, NVIDIA is the clear leader in AI, and persistent demand for its AI chips continues to add billions to the company’s top line. In the second quarter in fiscal year 2024, data center revenue soared 157.5% year-over-year to $10.3 billion, and total revenue jumped 101% year-over-year to $13.51 billion.

NVIDIA is scheduled to announce results for its third quarter in fiscal year 2024 on November 21. Given the robust demand for the company’s AI chips, it’s lining up to be another blowout report.

Analysts expect third-quarter earnings to soar 475.9% year-over-year to $3.34 per share, up from $0.58 per share in the same quarter a year ago. Analysts have also increased earnings estimates by 61.4% in the past two months, so a fourth-straight quarterly earnings surprise is likely. Third-quarter revenue is anticipated to come in at $16.06 billion. NVDA is a Moderately Aggressive buy below $506.

SOM Technicals: 

5-22-20: Closed at 361.05. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 364.40.

5-30-20: Closed at 353.67. Trade pressures are rising in to the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish. 333 is a support level.

6-6-20: Closed at 356.80. Trade pressure are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 364.

6-12-20: Closed at 357.30. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 332.00.

6-20-20: Closed at 370.45. Trade pressures are up. volumes are bullish. At the 364 target: consolidating.

6-26-20: Closed at 366.20. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. A close below 351.00 would signal lower.

7-4-20: Closed at 384.59. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 406.07.

7-10-20: Closed at 419.17. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bearish. a close blow 396 would signal lower.

7-18-20: Closed at 408.10. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bullish. The next target down is 363.00.

7-24-20: Closed at 407.00. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bullish. The next target down is 363.00.

May 2021: management announced a 4-for-1 stock split.

10-07-23: Closed at 457.62. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 460.19, then 491.33.

10-14-23: Closed at 454.61. Trade pressure are up but turning down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 431.36.

 

Super Micro Computer, Inc.

Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) is a well-known, global leader in high-performance server technology solutions. The company primarily provides a wide range of servers, storage, motherboards, workstations and networking solutions, as well as server management software. And like NVIDIA, Super Micro Computer is well-positioned to profit from the rising demand for AI technologies.

During its conference call to discuss its fiscal year 2023 results, Super Micro Computer management noted that it has experienced strong demand for its AI platforms, especially its technologies that are utilized in data centers. Super Micro Computer even supplies solutions to NVIDIA, which then uses them in its data center chips.

So, even though Super Micro Computer provided softer-than-anticipated guidance, the company is poised to benefit greatly from the AI craze. In fact, the analyst community has increased fiscal year 2024 earnings forecasts by 54.3% in the past three months. Full-year 2024 earnings are now forecast to increase 41.5% year-over-year. The company is also expected to achieve 40.1% annual revenue growth in fiscal year 2024. SMCI is an Aggressive buy below $370.

SOM Technicals:

7-1-23: Closed at 250.40. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 253.96.

7-9-23: Closed at 260.89. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 270.18.

7-15-23: Closed at 296.94. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bearish. The next target up is 306.85, the prior high.

7-21-23: Closed at 303.15. Trade pressures are up but down near the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The next target down is 271.97.

7-29-23: Closed at 334.50. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 412 but support is 325.00.

8-4-23: Closed at 338.10. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 412.40.

8-11-23: Closed at 254.43. Trade pressures are down hard. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 231.88.

8-18-23: Closed at 243.55. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 215.81. A close above 254 would signal higher.

8-25-23: Closed at 253.96. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral. The next target is 237.43.

9-1-23: Closed at 282.16. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 312.74.

9-8-23: Closed at 280.66. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 288.19.

9-16-23: Closed at 249.26. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 237.74.

9-23-23: Closed at 236.25. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is the prior low at 213.00.

10-07-23: Closed at 290.50. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are  bullish. The next target up is 300.25.

10-14-23: Closed at 285.20. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish., The next target down is 253.00.

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Summary:

Copper did break down.  Gold down, held the 1922 support. Silver is a new long.

The Crude is looking toppy. Natural retested lows.

The US 30yr Treasury Bond breaks down hard.

The US Dollar futures remain in the move up, but still overbought.

_________________

S&P 500 Futures #ESZ23

Monthly – Monthly support fails. Trade pressures remain up but are turning down. Volumes closed the month of August as bullish. The next target down is 4025. The close below 4373 has confirmed the weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly has two weeks of a move down. Trade pressures are still up, but are turning down. Volumes remain bearish. The close below 4583 confirmed the daily move lower. The next target down is 4280. A close above 4602 would confirm any Daily move higher.

Daily – Flat. The close below 4484 did signal lower.  Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 4280. The expected oversold level is 4399. A close above 4537 would signal higher.  The expected overbought level is 4449.

___________________

Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is marked to the market and is restarted at $100,000 for the 2023 year.

The Navellier portfolio stocks closed down 35% for the 2022 Year.

Portfolio values closed at approximately $109,000. The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is now up 9%.

[The author may have long or short positions in any of the securities mentioned.]

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXZ23

Weekly –  In the new September 2023 uptrend. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Long. In the move up from the long signal at 100.26 on 7/27.  Trade pressure remains up. Volumes remain bullish.

The next target up is 105.65. The overbought levels are 105.95.

A close below 104.28 would signal lower. The expected oversold levels are now 104.52.

 

US30YR T-BOND_ USZ23

Weekly – In the October 2021 downtrend and moving down and away from upside resistance. Trade pressures are down. Volumes remain bearish.

Daily  – Flat. Long signal completely wrong Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now bullish.

The close below 118-09 did signal lower. At the 116-12 downside target. The expected oversold levels are 115-24.

A close above 117-28 would signal higher.  Expected overbought levels are 118.22.