Author: ChasW

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXU25

Weekly –  In the March 2025 downtrend, rising to test 101 resistance.  Trade pressures remain up, but declining. Volumes remain bullish.

Daily –Flat. Pulling back after impulsive tariff impact on 8/1. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes remain bearish.

Need a close above 97.90 to resume the long trade. The next target up is 98.16. The expected overbought level decline to 99.00.

A close below 97.29 would signal lower. The expected oversold levels rise to 97.50.

 

US30YR T-BOND_ USU25

Weekly – In a new April 2025 uptrend and moving up off support.  Trade pressures are up, but declining.  Volumes are now neutral.

Daily  – Flat. In the move down after being stopped out at 115-08. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 133-22.  Oversold levels decline to 113-12.

Forming a new bull flag. Long the breakout above 114-25. The next target up is 115-19. Overbought levels rise to 116-09.

 

Oi & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLV25

Weekly – In the June 2025 uptrend, but declining. Trade pressures are down. Volumes remain bearish.

Daily –Short, In the second leg down from 66.29 on 8/4.  Trade pressures are down, but rising.  Volumes are now neutral.

The next target down is 60.79. The expected oversold level declines to 661.80.

A close above 63.40 would signal higher. The expected overbought levels decline to 66.25.

 

NAT GAS_ NGU25 [rolls to “V” soon]

Weekly – In the new July 2025 downtrend. Trade pressures remain down.  Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Flat.  Continues the move down from 3.41 on 7/21. Trade pressures are down, but rising.  Volumes are now neutral.

The next target down is 2.57. The expected oversold level declines to 2.71.

A close above 3.02 would signal higher. The expected overbought level declines to 3.12. ( so, no upside follow thru likely.)

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGU25

Weekly – In the July 2025 downtrend. Trade pressures fail at 4.69 support. Volumes remain neutral.

Daily – Flat. testing the short term trend line at 4.49 as resisitance. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are are now bullish.

The next target down is the prior low at 4.33.  A likely retest of the lows is first, then a second move up should clarify. The expected oversold levels rise to 4.32.

Need a close above 4.66 to resume any move up. (The > 4.47 close is an early warning.) The expected overbought levels decline to 4.57.

 

GOLD_ GCZ25

Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend with support at 3177.  Trade pressures are neutral.  Volumes are now neutral.

Daily – Flat. Remains in the downtrend from 8/10 at 3444.  Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 3346. The expected oversold level rises to 3303.

A close above 3402 would signal higher. The expected overbought level declines to 3411.

 

SILVER_ SIU25

Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend. Trade pressures are in the neutral zone.  Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Flat, in the move down from the 8/13 pivot.  Trade pressures are down.  Volumes remain bullish.

The next target up is 39.03. Overbought levels rise to 39.52.

A close below 37.84 would signal lower. The oversold levels decline to 37.17.

[8-19-25: Short triggered at 37.84. The next target down is 36.63. SL is the entry price at 37.84.]

[8-20-25: Stopped out at the EP, 37.84.]

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Summary:

Copper establishing new levels.  Gold rallies on more tariff news – sold the rip. Silver rallied off the 36 level.

Crude move down is at multiple supports.  Natural Gas move up failed, selling continues.

The US 30yr Treasury pulls back awaiting the CPI results. The 10yr yields now in the 4.20’s. The expected oversold level for the 10 yr yield is 4.11%

The US Dollar continues higher highs and higher lows in the long trade.

_________________

S&P 500 Futures   #ESU25

Monthly –Monthly bar trading above the prior month low. Trade pressures rising just above the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of July as bullish; again on lower volumes.  The 6468 price is the new adjusted high. The next target up is 6630. A close below 6157 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar found support and moved up off the 12/2024 trendline of the recent highs.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes have returned bullish.  The next target up is 6630.  A close below 6237 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Long. In the move up from 6290 on 8/4 to 6414.  A close below 6373 would trigger a short entry.  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are now bullish.

The close on 8/4 above 6290 signaled higher. Traded to 6426 resisitance on 8/7. Then pulled back, only to rally from from 6383 into the weekend .

The next target up is 6450. The expected overbought level declines to 6423. So, expect reisistance.

The next target down is 6118. The expected oversold level declines to 6251.

A lower than expected Tuesday CPI report will set the tone.

__________________

Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is rebalanced to start at $100,000 for the 2025 year.

These Navellier Top 5 portfolio stocks closed:
Down 35% for the 2022 Year.
    Up 17% for the 2023 Year.
   Up 42% for the 2024 Year.

Portfolio stock values for 2025. 
The portfolio value is down for the last week, to $142,000.
The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is up 42%.

The S&P 500 YTD return is up 7.8%

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXU25

Weekly –  In the March 2025 downtrend, rising to test 101 resistance.  Trade pressures remain up. Volumes are now bullish.

Daily –Long. Pulling back after impulsive tariff impact. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes remain bearish.

The next target up is 101.22. The expected overbought level decline to 99.96.

A close below 97.29 would signal lower. The expected oversold levels rise to 97.57.

 

US30YR T-BOND_ USU25

Weekly – In a new April 2025 uptrend and moving up off support.  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are now bullish.

Daily  – Long. In the new move up from 112-21 on 7/21. Stopped out at 115-18. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone.  Volumes remain bullish.

Forming a new bull flag. Long the breakout above 115-06. The next target up is 116-31. Overbought levels rise to 115-22.

A close below 113-25 would signal lower  Oversold levels rise 113-20.

 

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLU25

Weekly – In the June 2025 uptrend, but declining. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now bearish.

Daily –Short, In the second leg down from 67.33 on 8/1.  Trade pressures are down.  Volumes remain bearish.

The next target down is 61.61. The expected oversold level declines to 62.47.

A close above 64.65 would signal higher. The expected overbought levels decline to 67.91.

 

NAT GAS_ NGU25

Weekly – In the new July 2025 downtrend. Trade pressures aremain down.  Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Flat.  in the move down from 3.41 on 7/21. Trade pressures are down but rising.  Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 2.57. The expected oversold level rises to 2.91.

A close above 3.20 would signal higher. The expected overbought level declines to 3.21. ( so, no upside follow thru likely.)

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGU25  [Trump adds tariffs 7/30]

Weekly – In the July 2025 downtrend. Trade pressures fail at 4.69 support. Volumes are neutral.

Daily – Flat. The close above 4.47 signals at least neiutral. Trade pressures remain down.  Volumes are are now neutral.

A likely retest of the lows is first, then a second move up should clarify. The expected oversold levels decline to 3.66.

Need a close above 4.75 to resume any move up. (The > 4.47 close is an early warning.) The expected overbought levels decline to 4.69.

 

GOLD_ GCZ25

Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend with support at 3171.  Trade pressures are down.  Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Flat. Took profits on the spike above 3500.  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain bullish.

The next target up is 3534. Howeve, price is in a pullback off the confusing newsy week. The expected overbought level rises to 3430.

A close below 3445 would signal lower. The next target down is 3417. The expected oversold level declines to 3278.

 

SILVER_ SIU25

Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend. Trade pressures are up but declining to neutral zone.  Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Long, in the move up from the 37.44 on 8/5 and now off the 39.91 highs.  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 39.17 and could form a lower high. Overbought levels rise to 39.17.

A close below 38.11 would signal lower. The oversold levels rise to 37.28.

 

 

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Summary:

Copper after crash settles at the mid 4’s.  Gold now backtesting the prior break down. Silver decline consolidating at the weekend.

Crude retracing the mid-week breakout rally.  Natural Gas move up failed, selling continues.

The US 30yr Treasury continues rally. The 10yr yields now in the 4.20’s.

The US Dollar continues the long trade.

_________________

S&P 500 Futures   #ESU25

Monthly –Monthly bar closes just above the prior month low. Trade pressures rising just above the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of July as bullish; again on lower volumes.  The 6468 price is the new adjusted high. The next target up is 6630. A close below 6157 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar has pulled back to the 12/2024 trendline of the recent highs, which is now acting as support.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes have turned bearish.  The next target up is 6630.  A close below 6137 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat. In the move down from the new downtrend on 7-31.  A close below 6220 would trigger a short entry.  Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone.  Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 6118. The expected oversold level rises to 6276, so some rally attempt is likely.

A close above 6290 would signal higher.  The expected overbought level declines to 6423, so this OB/OS range is closing.

__________________

Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is rebalanced to start at $100,000 for the 2025 year.

These Navellier Top 5 portfolio stocks closed:
Down 35% for the 2022 Year.
    Up 17% for the 2023 Year.
   Up 42% for the 2024 Year.

Portfolio stock values for 2025. 
The portfolio value is down for the last week, to $136,000.
The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is up 36%.

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXU25

Weekly –  In the March 2025 downtrend, rising to test resistance.  Trade pressures remain up. Volumes are now bullish.

Daily –Long. Pulling back after impulsive tariff impact. Trade pressures are up but declining.  Volumes are now bearish.

The next target up is 101.22. The expected overbought level rises to 100.99.

A close below 97.18 would signal lower. The expected oversold levels rise to 97.31.

 

US30YR T-BOND_ USU25

Weekly – In a new April 2025 uptrend and moving up off support.  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are now bullish.

Daily  – Long. In the new move up from 112-21 on 7/21.  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 116-31. Overbought levels rise to 115-17.

A close below 113-25 would signal lower  Oversold levels rise 112-06.

[Set the SL at 113-14.]

[8-4-25: Raise the SL to 115-00.]

[8-5-25: Raise the Sl to 115-18.]

[8-6-25: Stopped out on a spike down thru 115-18.]

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLU25

Weekly – In the June 2025 uptrend, traded lower, but now rising. Trade pressures remain in the neutral zone. Volumes are now bullish.

Daily –Short, In the move down from the 69.54 break down on 7/31.  Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are now bearish.

The next target down is 64.01. The expected oversold level declines to 65.19.

A close above 68.42 65.49 would signal higher. The expected overbought levels decline to 69.36.

[8-2-25: Set the SL at 68.42.]

[8-4-25: Lower the SL to 67.62.]

[8-5-25: Lower the SL to 66.78. Take profits at 64.07.]

[8-6-25: Rallies to just short of SL, then drops again to the profit target of 64.07. Profit stop met.]

 

NAT GAS_ NGU25

Weekly – In the new July 2025 downtrend. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Flat.  in the move down from 3.49 on 7/21. Trade pressures are down but rising.  Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 2.31. The expected oversold level rises to 2.90.

A close above 3.18 would signal higher. The expected overbought level rises to 3.30.