Author: ChasW

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXH24

Weekly –  In the August 2023 uptrend and testing the support level. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now neutral.

Daily – Flat.  Rising out of the downward channel.  Trade pressures in the neutral zone.  Volumes are bullish.

Still in the downtrend.  This target down is 102.68 is the oversold level.

A close above 103.95 would signal higher.  The expected overbought levels are then 104.58.

 

US30YR T-BOND_ USH24

Weekly – In the October 2021 downtrend and still rising to resistance.  Trade pressures remain up.  Volumes remain bullish.

Daily  – Flat. At the 120-22 upside target.  In the move up from 114-12 on 11/14.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes are now neutral.

The next target up is 125-25.  Expected overbought levels are 118-21.

A close below 118-16 would signal lower.  The expected oversold levels remain 115-14.

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLH24

Weekly – In the new December 2023 downtrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Flat.  Breaks hard below the 200 day MA.  Trade pressures are down.  Volumes close as neutral.

Crude fails to hold the 200 day MA. The next target down is 63.54. The expected oversold levels are now 69.08.

Need a close above 75.27 to confirm any signal higher.  The expected overbought levels are 76.99.

 

NAT GAS_ NGH24

Weekly – In the December 2022 downtrend; still accelerating. Trade pressures are still down. Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Flat. In the move down from 3.14 on 11/08.  Trade pressures are down hard. Volumes remain bearish.

The next target down is 2.30; below the expected oversold level of 2.45.

A close above 2.50 would signal higher. The expected overbot level would be 2.96.

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures    [Contracts rollover]

COPPER_ HGH24

Weekly – In the new December 2023 uptrend. Trade pressures remain up but turning down. Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Long, from the 3.81 resumption of the uptrend on 12/8.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish.

The next target up is 3.91.. The expected overbought levels are 3.91.

A close below 3.73 would signal lower. Expected oversold levels remain at 3.71.

[Use 3.73 as the SL]

[12-14-23: Raise SL to BE, 3.81.]

 

GOLD_ GCG24

Weekly – In the new December 2023 uptrend, with the decisive break above the 2048 the resistance levels in a complete retracement. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are now bullish.

Daily – Flat.  In the retracement down of the sharp move up on 11/28. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 1992.35. Support is at 1991, below the expected oversold levels of 2006.

A new long entry entry would be signaled with a close above 2045. The expected overbought levels are now 2099.

 

SILVER_ SIH24

Weekly – Now in the new December uptrend. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Flat. Crashing from those prior highs. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 22.98. Oversold levels are below at 21.62. Support levels are at 22.99.

A close above 24.41 would signal higher.  Overbought levels are 25.11.

 

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Summary:

Copper breaks above the 200 day MA.  Gold rallies to the upper median line, expect consolidation.  Silver continues the sharp move up after breaking the 200 day MA.

The Crude consolidating at the lower median line, expect support. Natural gas downtrend accelerating.

The US 30yr Treasury Bond higher. Are lower rates signaling recession? Watch crude (lower) for that confirmation.

The US Dollar futures consolidating above the 200 day MA. Pressures still rising.

_________________

S&P 500 Futures #ESZ23 [Contract rolls soon]

Monthly – November breaks above the downward sloping upper median line to signal higher. Trade pressures remain down into the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of November as neutral.  The next target down remains 4025. This November close above the trend line confirms the weekly move higher. Expect consolidation and a back-test (4370) of the breakout. The next target up is 5170.

Weekly – The weekly continues the move up off the 4310 long entry on 11/03 and has closed above the 4586 upside target. Trade pressures are now up.  Volumes have closed the week as bullish again. The next target up is the upper median line at 4649.

Daily – Flat, the move up after the break above the 4426 long entry on 11/10 continues.  Took profits ahead of the rollover.  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain bullish.  Friday closed just above the September and October highs at 4600.75.  The next target up is 4643.  A close below 4491 would signal lower.  Multiple resistance levels just higher.  Expect consolidation and retracement.

___________________

Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is marked to the market and is restarted at $100,000 for the 2023 year.

The Navellier portfolio stocks closed down 35% for the 2022 Year.

Portfolio values closed at approximately $107,000. The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is now up 7%.

[The author may have long or short positions in any of the securities mentioned.]

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXZ23 [Contract change soon]

Weekly –  In the September 2023 uptrend now testing the support level. Trade pressures are down. Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Flat. Rising off  the 200 day MA to test the upper band of the downward channel.  Trade pressures are rising into the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral.

Tested the LML. The next target down is 100.93 which is also the oversold level

A close above 103.53 would signal higher. The expected overbought levels are then 108.05.

 

US30YR T-BOND_ USH24

Weekly – In the October 2021 downtrend but rising to resistance. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes remain bullish.

Daily  – Flat. Stopped out of the short for a loss. (Need to pay attention to the weekly time frame pressures.)  In the move up from 114-12 on 11/14.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes are now bullish.

The next target up 120-20.  Expected overbought levels are 118-21.

A close below 117-04 would signal lower. The expected oversold levels remain 114-19.

 

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLH24

Weekly – In the new December 2023 downtrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Flat.  At support at the April 2023 median line (74.310.  Trade pressures are down.  Volumes remain bearish.

The next target down is 70.62. The expected oversold levels are now 73.53.

Crude is still basing around the 200 day MA; again the bias seems lower.

A close above 78.54 would confirm any signal higher. Watch the 75.31 level for an early indication.  The expected overbought levels are 78.92.

 

NAT GAS_ NGH24

Weekly – In the December 2022 downtrend; accelerating. Trade pressures are still down. Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Flat. In the move down from 3.14 on 11/08.  Trade pressures are down hard. Volumes remain bearish.

The next target down is 2.57. The expected oversold level is 2.66.

A close above 2.66 would signal higher; with one test of 2.66 already, this seems more likely.  The expected overbot level would be 3.08.

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures    [Contracts rollover]

COPPER_ HGH24

Weekly – Broken out of the May 2023 downtrend, now in the new December 2023 uptrend. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Long, from the 3.86 break above the 200 day MA resistance on 12/1. Breaks above the 200 day MA.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes are now bullish.

Missed the break out. Will wait for an entry lower around the 3.80 level. The expected overbought levels are 3.88.

A close below 3.82 would signal lower. Expected oversold levels remain at 3.70.

[12-5-23: Now 3.78. Breaks back below the 200 day MA. Support at 3.70.]

 

GOLD_ GCG24

Weekly – In the new December 2023 uptrend, with a decisive break above the 2048 the resistance levels. Trade pressures are just up out of the neutral zone. Volumes are now bullish.

Daily – Flat.  In the new move up from the break above the UML and 2037 on 11/28. Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish.

The next target up is 2101. The expected overbought levels is 2054.

A new short entry would be signaled with a close below 2041. The expected oversold levels are now 1991.

[ 12-5-23: Now 2034. Ripped higher to the 2152 upside target and then gives it all back. 2076 was the short entry; missed. Now looking for an opportunity to go long around 2000.

 

SILVER_ SIH24

Weekly – Now in the new December uptrend. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Flat. In the move up after the break above the 200 day MA from 23.87 on 11/24. Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish.

The next target up is 26.29. Overbought levels are below at 25.09.

A close below 24.90 would signal lower.  Oversold levels are 24.81.

[12-5-23: Silver down with the other metals. Short entry was 25.16 after the spike up. Now support at the back-test of the 200 day.]

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Summary:

Copper rallies to the 200 day MA.  Gold rallies above the 200 day MA.  Silver in a second leg up off the 22.00 support.

The Crude looking lower at 75-76. Natural gas still looks down further to LML.

The US 30yr Treasury Bond signals a short at 115.

The US Dollar futures consolidating above the 200 day MA. Pressures rising.

_________________

S&P 500 Futures #ESZ23

Monthly – November headed for a back-test at 4700 of the September 2023 breakdown. Trade pressures remain down into the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of October as bearish. The next target down remains 4025. The September close below 4373 had confirmed the weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly continues the move up off the 4122 low and has closed above the 4497 upside target. Trade pressures have risen into the neutral zone. Volumes have closed the holiday week as bullish again. The next target up is 4586.

Daily – Long, after the break above the 4426 on 11/10. Trade pressures are up. Volume remains bullish. Now looking for a break above the September and October highs. The next target up is 4586. A close below 4442 would signal lower.

[11/20/23: Set SL at 4517.  NVDA reports Tues PM]

[11-26-23: Raise the SL to 4520.]

[11-27-23: Take profits here before the rollover.]

___________________

Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is marked to the market and is restarted at $100,000 for the 2023 year.

The Navellier portfolio stocks closed down 35% for the 2022 Year.

Portfolio values closed at approximately $108,000. The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is now up 8%.

[The author may have long or short positions in any of the securities mentioned.]

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXZ23

Weekly –  In the September 2023 uptrend now testing the support level. Trade pressures are down. Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Flat. Consolidating around the lower channel boundary and the 200 day MA.  Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bearish.

Testing the LML. The next target down is 102.84. The oversold levels are 102.59.

A close above 103.80 would signal higher. The expected overbought levels are then 104.49.

 

US30YR T-BOND_ USZ23

Weekly – In the October 2021 downtrend. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes remain bullish.

Daily  – Short. Closed below the 115 level. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are now bearish.

The next target down is 113.13.  Expected oversold levels are 111-12.

A close above 116-16 would signal higher. The expected overbought levels remain 116-11.

[11-27-23: Close the trade at 115-30 limit for a loss.]

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLZ23

Weekly – In the August 2023 uptrend still testing support. Trade pressures are down. Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Flat.  In the move down from 85.39 on 10/23 and now have found support at the April 2023 median line.  Trade pressures are down.  Volumes remain bearish.

The next target down is 65.79. The expected oversold levels are now 73.17.

Crude is basing around the 200 day MA but the bias seems lower.

A close above 79.28 would confirm any signal higher. The expected overbought levels are 79.45.

 

NAT GAS_ NGZ23

Weekly – In the December 2022 downtrend; holding at long term resistance. Trade pressures are still down. Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Flat. Changed trend to bearish.  Trade pressures are down once again. Volumes are now bearish.

The next target down is 2.83. The expected oversold level is 2.84.

A close above 3.04 would signal higher. The expected overbot level is 3.27.