Author: ChasW

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Summary:

Copper pulls back and rallies again to contract highs.  Gold lower highs tutn into a bull flag and then a break out to ATH’s. Silver mirrors gold.

Crude fails at the September trendline support, holding just below.  Natural Gas, a second rally and a second retracement which has now broken the trend line down.

The US 30yr Treasury pulls back to Feb trendline support. The 10yr yields consolidating around 4.30%.

The US Dollar is now Flat, and at downside targets.

_________________

S&P 500 Futures   #ESH25

Monthly –Monthly bar closes well below the prior week’s range. Trade pressures remain up, but declining. Volumes closed the month of February as bullish.  The 6181 price remains the high. The close below 5870 did confirm a weekly move lower. The next target down is still 5523. A close above 6082 would confirm any weekly move higher.

Weekly – The weekly has yet another lower close.  Trade pressures remain down. Volumes remain bearish.  The close below 5911 confirmed the daily move lower. The first target down of 5619 is met. The next target down is 5272. A close above 5883 would confirm any daily move higher.

Daily – Flat. At the 5564 downside target. Trade pressures remain down but a smal rise is developing.  Volumes are now neutral.

The next target down is 5631. The expected oversold level declines to 5456.

A close above 5724 would signal higher. The expected overbought level declines to 5850.

Some basing is likely here and could generate some short covering, which would be a possible re-shorting opportunity.
(Perhaps the market is seeing some tariff relief? But even that won’t turn the GDP numbers higher soon.)

___________________

Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is marked to the market and is restarted at $100,000 for the 2024 year.

These Navellier Top 5 portfolio stocks closed:
Down 35% for the 2022 Year.
Up 17% for the 2023 Year.
Up 42% for the 2024 Year.

Portfolio stock values for 2025. 
The portfolio value down to $108,000.
The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is  up 8%.

[The author may be long or short any of these issues mentioned],

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXM25

Weekly –  In the March 2025 downtrend.  Trade pressures are down. Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Flat. Flat the downside target of 102.00. Trade pressures are down but turning up.  Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 102.62. The expected oversold levels declines to 102.75.

A close above 105.47 would signal higher. The expected overbought level declines to 105.65.

 

US30YR T-BOND_ USM25

Weekly – In a new October 2024 downtrend.  Trade pressures are now up.  Volumes are bullish.

Daily  – Flat. At 116-24. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes remain bearish.

The next target up is 120-12. Overbought levels remain 120-18.

A close below 115-08 would resume the move down. Oversold levels are 113-20.

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLK25

Weekly – In the January 2025 uptrend, but still testing support. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes remain bearish.

Daily –Long. Long from the bull flag breakout at 67.28. In a daily bear flag rising off the 65.01 low. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bullish.

Need a close above 68.87 level to confirm the signal higher.  The expected overbought levels declines to 68.74.

The next target down remains 64.64. A break below the Lower median line (bear flag) at 66.67 could precipitate a new leg down. The expected oversold level declines to 64.18.

[Set the SL at 66.67.]

 

NAT GAS_ NGJ25

Weekly – In the new January 2025 uptrend. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are now bearish.

Daily – Short.  Now at 4.10. The retracement move formed a bull flag and the breakout was at 3.97 on 3/3; then failed with another breakdown at 4.26 thru trend. Trade pressures remain are down.  Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 3.83. The expected oversold level rises  to 3.88.

A close above 4.25 would signal higher. The expected overbought level rises to 4.62.

[set a SL at 4.25]

[3-20-25: Rollover to May contract, NGK25. Cover short @ 3.96 for a gain.]

 

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGK25

Weekly – In the September 2024 uptrend; breaks above resisitance. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Flat. Breaks out of the bull flag at 4.62. Then a back test of the breakout on 3/10. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bulish.

Now at the 4.92 upside resisitance, again at the upper median line. Retracing. The next target down is 4.83. The expected oversold levels rise to 4.54.

A close above 4.93 would signal higher. The expected overbought levels rise to 4.99.

 

GOLD_ GCJ25

Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend, 4 weeks above resistance.  Trade pressures are up but declining.  Volumes are now bullish.

Daily – Long. Bull Flag breaks out at 2926 on 3/12. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain bullish.

The next target up is 3017, the prior high. The expected overbought level rises to 3011.

A close below 2977 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 2900.

 

SILVER_ SIK25

Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend. Trade pressures are down,but rising.  Volumes are bullish.

Daily – Long. Bull Flag breakout at 33.36 on 3/12.  Trade pressures turned up .  Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is the upper median line at 34.81. Overbought levels are 34.51.

A close below 33.36 would signal lower. The oversold levels are 29.36.

 

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Summary:

Copper rallies to resisitance.  Gold rallies, but to lower highs. Silver rallies from its selloff, also to lower highs.

Crude fails at the September trendline support.  Natural Gas breaks out of retracement to new highs.

The US 30yr Treasury Bond at the 119 upside target. The 10yr yields consolidating.

The US Dollar is now a short, whipping about with every pronouncement.

_________________

S&P 500 Futures   #ESH25

Monthly –Monthly bar closes well below the prior week’s range. Trade pressures remain up but declining. Volumes closed the month of February as bullish.  The 6181 price remains the high. The close below 5870 did confirm a weekly move lower. The next target down is be 5523.

Weekly – The weekly has another lower close.  Trade pressures remain down. Volumes increase again but bearish now.  The close below 5911 confirms the daily move lower. The next target down is 5619.

Daily – Flat. Down from the 3/3 trendline backtest at 5972. Trade pressures remain down.  Volumes are now bullish.

The next target down is 5631. The expected oversold level declines to 5695.

A close above 5839 would signal higher. The expected overbought level declines to 6024.

___________________

Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is marked to the market and is restarted at $100,000 for the 2024 year.

These Navellier Top 5 portfolio stocks closed:
Down 35% for the 2022 Year.
Up 17% for the 2023 Year.
Up 42% for the 2024 Year.

Portfolio stock values for 2025. 
The portfolio value down 12% to $105,000.
The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is  up 5%.

[The author may be long or short any of these issues mentioned],

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXH25

Weekly –  In the March 2025 downtrend.  Trade pressures are down. Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Short, from the 107.06 channel breakdown on 3/4. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are bearish.

The enxt target down is 102.00. The expected oversold levels declines to 103.02.

A close above 105.89 would signal higher. The expected overbought level declines to 106.56.

 

US30YR T-BOND_ USM25

Weekly – In a new October 2024 downtrend.  Trade pressures are now up.  Volumes are bullish.

Daily  – Flat. Reached the 119-08 target. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are bearish.

The next target up is 120-12. Overbought levels remain 120-18.

A close below 115-08 would resume the move down. Oversold levels are 113-20.

 

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLJ25

Weekly – In the January 2025 uptrend, but testing support. Trade pressures are down. Volumes remain bearish.

Daily –Flat. The second leg down from 71.52 on 2/14 is trading near the 64.64 downside target. Trade pressures are down but rising.  Volumes remain bearish.

The next target down remains 64.64.  The expected oversold level declines to 65.60.

Need a close above 68.88 level to signal higher.  The expected overbought levels declines to 70.30.

 

NAT GAS_ NGJ25

Weekly – In the new January 2025 uptrend. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Flat.  At 4.55. The retracement move formed a bull flag and the breakout was at 3.97 on 3/3. Trade pressures remain up but declining.  Volumes are bullish.

After a pullback, the next target up is aretest of 4.55. The expected overbought level rises to 4.52.

The next target down is 4.02. The expected oversold level rises  to 3.75.

 

 

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGK25

Weekly – In the September 2024 uptrend; continues to test resisitance. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – Flat. Breaks out of the bull flag at 4.62. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are neutral.

At upside resisitance at 4.80, the upper median line. Retracing. The next target down is 4.61. The expected oversold levels decline to 4.45.

A close above 4.79 would signal higher. The expected overbought levels rise to 4.81.

 

GOLD_ GCJ25

Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend, 4 weeks above resistance.  Trade pressures are up but declining.  Volumes are now bullish.

Daily – Flat. Lower highs. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone.  Volumes are bullish.

A close above 2956 would signal higher. The expected overbought level declines to 2983.

The next target down is 2843. The expected oversold level rises to 2856.

 

SILVER_ SIK25

Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are neutral.

Daily – Flat. Showing lower highs after the move up.  At the 33.50 resisitance. Trade pressures are up but declining.  Volumes are neutral.

The next target down is 31.65. The oversold levels are 31.24.

A close above 32.68 would signal higher. Overbought levels are 33.46.

 

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Summary:

Copper basing at the 4.55 target.  Gold breaks down from the consolidation channel. Silver breaks the trend into a hard selloff.

Crude moves up off the September trendline support.  Natural Gas remains in retracement.

The US 30yr Treasury Bond in a second move up off the 110 lows to 118; rollover. The 10yr yields decline, now below 4.25%.

The US Dollar is now a long.

_________________

S&P 500 Futures   #ESH25

Monthly –Monthly bar closes at the low end of the prior week’s range. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of February as bullish.  The 6181 price remains the high. The next target up is 6633.  A close below 5870, would confirm a weekly move lower. The next target down would be 5523.

Weekly – The weekly has another lower close.  Trade pressures remain down. Volumes increase but remain bullish.  A close below 5905 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Long; Long from 5905 in the PM friday the 28th.  Stopped out of the move down from 6090 at 6047. Trade pressures remain down.  Volumes are now bullish.

The next target up is 5990. The expected overbought level declines to 6154.

The next target down is 5781. The expected oversold level declines to 5824.

___________________

Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is marked to the market and is restarted at $100,000 for the 2024 year.

These Navellier Top 5 portfolio stocks closed:
Down 35% for the 2022 Year.
Up 17% for the 2023 Year.
Up 42% for the 2024 Year.

Portfolio stock values for 2025. 
The portfolio value up to $114,000.
The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is  up 114%.

Howmet Aerospace (HWM) and United Airlines (UAL) will be replaced by Agnico Eagle (AEM) and Argenx (ARGX) at the next open.

[The author may be long or short any of these issues mentioned],

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXH25

Weekly –  In the October 2024 uptrend.  Trade pressures are down. Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Long. In a retracement up from the trend breakout above 106.60 on 2/27. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are bullish.

The next taerget up is 108.50. The expected overbought level declines to 107.60.

A close below 107.06 would signal higher.  The expected oversold levels declines to 105.81.

 

US30YR T-BOND_ USM25

Weekly – In a new October 2024 downtrend.  Trade pressures are now up.  Volumes are bullish.

Daily  – Long. In the new move up from 114-11 on 2/14.   Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain bullish.

The next target up is 119-08.. Overbought levels remain 120-18.

A close below 116-18 would resume the move down. Oversold levels are 113-20.

[2-26-25: Raise the SL the 117-00.]

[2-28-25: New June contract. Sell the March contract at the Monday open]

[3-2-25: Sell at 118.00.]

 

[The 10yr yield overbought level declines to 4.49%, the oversold level is now 4.19%.
Inflation expectations continue lower thru the remainder of 1Q25 and begin to rise again in 2Q25.]