Author: Charlie

S&P Futures

This last week and the week between Christmas week and New Years Day should be very light;
and therefore difficult to generate reliable signals.

S&P 2015 earnings estimates at the end of December are 131.14.
(www.spindices.com/documents/additional-material/sp–500-eps-est.xlsx )
The December 24th closing price divided by the earnings estimate gives a current PE of 15.8.
For this next 2015 year, a P/E expansion to 20 x 131.14 would suggest a S&P value of 2622 for next year.
A recession value of 10 x could produce market risk down to 1310.

Monthly – trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.
next target up is 2191.

Weekly – trade pressures are up. volume is neutral and very light.
touched the 2088 target.

Daily – after trading down below the 80 day MA, now in the long trade from the 2028 entry price.
next target up is 2094.
trade pressures are up. volume is bullish but declining.

a close below 2065 would signal a move lower.

US $$

USD(DX)_ money flows into US

Weekly – in the long trade since the 81.95 long entry in late 2013.
trade pressures remain up. holiday volume is neutral.
next target up is 94.66, just above the June 2010 high.

Daily – trade pressures are up. volume is neutral.
Next target up is 91.72.

a Close below 89.05 could start a correction down.

30 YR T-BONDS_ tested the old  146-18 high and is pulling back.

Weekly – still in the short trade after a retest of the the recent highs.
trade pressures are up. Holiday volume is neutral and light.

Daily – trade pressures are down. volume is neutral.
Also in the long cycle short trade from 142-05. next target down is 134-30.
the retracement trade up started at the long entry of 141-24 and reached the 146-18 profit target.
so, if still in that trade, a retest of the short entry at 142-05 will stop out that retracement trade.

Oil & Gas

CRUDE_ Consolidating between the 57.61 target and the recent lows.

Weekly – trade pressures are down. volume is bearish.
next weekly target is 46.48.

Daily – trade pressures are up. volume is bearish.
next target down is 44.67.

need a trade above 58.42 to create the next long entry.
Any move up is likely to stop at 72-73.

Nat GAS_ declining prices and declining volume, No buyers?

Weekly – Trade pressures are down. volume is bearish, but very light vol.
next weekly target down is 2.22.

Daily – trade pressures are down. volume is bearish.
next daily target down is 2.79.

 

 

Metals

COPPER_
Weekly – trade pressures are down. volume is neutral.

Daily – the 2.82 support has failed. next target down is 2.50.
the trade pressures are down. volume is bearish but very light.

GOLD_
Still observing the 1142 support.
Weekly – trade pressures are up. volume is neutral and holiday light.

Daily – Trade pressures are down. volume is neutral.
the trade is down to 1160 from 1209.

a close above 1200 could restart the long trade.

SILVER_ the 16.25 support has failed. the next target down is 10.71.
Weekly – trade pressures are up. volume is neutral.

Daily – trade pressures are down. volume is neutral.
in the long trade from 15.61. the next target up is 18.22.
a close below 15.52 would signal lower.

 

 

S&P Futures

Near all time highs – again.

Monthly – trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.
the next target up is 2191.

Weekly – trade pressures are up. and volume is bullish.
upside targets up are 2086, then 2112.
BUT, the weekly 2002 short entry is still active until a close above 2072.
the weekly next target down is 1890.

Daily – traded down to the 1971 target and close to the 1947 target
then moved up thru the 2024 long entry with an upside target of 2094.
trade pressure up. volume is bullish.
Still need to take out the 2072.50 high.

the last weeks of this Christmas holiday should have much lower volumes.
Be careful; the market is up almost 15%, don’t give it back with foolish trading.

US $$

USD (DX)_  all about money flows between countries.

Weekly – trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.
consolidating around the 88.97 upside target.

Daily – hit the first target down in the short trade.
then turned up dramatically thru the old highs as money flows accelerated into the US markets.
trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.

30yr TBONDS_
Usually follows the dollar flows, but with yields so low it seems the money was going into equities and resulted in selling some bonds.

Weekly – trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.
price tagged the prior high and pulled back.

Daily – trade pressures are down. volume is bearish.
the short trade from 142-05 was not stopped out.
next target down is 134-30.

a close above 146-20 will stop the short trade.

Oil & Gas

CRUDE_  This move down started in July 2014. The Malaysian airliner was shot down July 17th.

Weekly – trade pressures are down. volume is bearish.

Daily – trade pressures are up and volume is bullish.
the 57.60 downside target has been met and is now acting as resistance.
44.87 is the next target down.

the long entry of 58.428 can’t quite get executed.

NAT GAS_  winter weather should have nat gas rising.

Weekly – trade pressures are down. volume is bearish.
the 3.60 target has failed to provide support.

Daily – the 3.64 support has failed and the momentum has carried price immediately to the 3.16 target.
trade pressures are up. volume is bearish.
could have a retracement up to 3.67

Metals

COPPER_
Weekly – the 2.94 target is acting as resistance.
trade pressures are down. volume is neutral.

Daily – sitting on the 2.82 target as a support level.
trade pressures are down. volume is bearish.

need a close above 2.93 to get copper moving.

GOLD_
Has turned down from the 1237 upside target.
weekly- the 1142 downside target is acting as support.
trade pressures are up. volume is neutral.

Daily – in the short trade down to 1160.
pressures are down. volume is neutral.

SILVER_
In the short trade from 21.76 to 10.71.

Weekly – trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.
need a close above 21.487.

Daily – sitting on the 15.66 target as as support.
trade pressures are down and volume is neutral.

S&P Futures

Mar ’15 contract

Monthly – Trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.
the next target up is 2191.

Weekly – trade pressures are up but extended. volume is bearish.
next target up is 2112.
the short entry is at 2002 with an 1890 target.

Daily – Trade pressures are down. volume is bearish.
short from the 2021 entry. next target down is 1971 (also the 80-day MA).

need a reversal to close above 2052 2024 to signal a new move up.

US $$

USD (DX)_
Weekly – Trade pressures are extended up. volume is bullish.
at the 88.97 target and consolidating.

Daily – Trade pressures are down. volume is bearish.
in the short trade from 89.08 to 89.95.

30 YR TBONDS_
Weekly – trade pressures are flat. volume is bullish.
the 146-18 prior high is a resistance level. the short trade from 141-25 is going the wrong way.

Daily – trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.
the long trade from 141-28 is at it’s 145-09 target and should pause here.

Flat, look for the next short opportunity.