S&P 500 Futures
Market Summary:
Copper attempted higher, still retesting the 4.00 support. Gold fails to hold support. Silver lower as well.
Crude at the upper bound of the October channel. Natural Gas in a new move up.
The US 30yr Treasury Bond at target lows. The 10yr yields rise to 4.59%, near the 4.61% overbought expectations.
The US Dollar now neutral.
_________________
S&P 500 Futures #ESH25
Monthly –Monthly bar closes lower. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of November as bullish. The 6161 price was the high. The next target up is 6602. A break below 5870 would confirm any weekly move lower. The next target down then would be 5523.
Weekly – The weekly has a lower close. Trade pressures remain up but declining. Volumes are bearish. The 6127 upside target was met. The close below 6040 has confirmed the daily move lower. The next target down is 5834.
Daily – Short. Sharp drop through the short entry at 6030. Trade pressures are up but declining sharply to the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish.
The next target down is 5809.
A close above 6085 would signal higher and then the next target up would be 6330.
The expected oversold level declines to 5802.
The expected overbought level rises to 6153.
[set the SL to 6030.]
[12-24-24: stopped out at the short entry, 6030.]
___________________
Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is marked to the market and is restarted at $100,000 for the 2024 year.
These Navellier Top 5 portfolio stocks closed:
down 35% for the 2022 Year.
up 17% for the 2023 Year.
Portfolio stock values for 2024.
The portfolio value declines to $142,000.
The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is up 42%.
Guidewire Software (GWRE) will be replaced with Carpenter Technology (CRS) on the next business day.
[The author may be long or short any of these issues mentioned],
US$$
#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures
USD_ DXH25
Weekly – In the new October 2024 uptrend. Trade pressures remain up but are turning down. Volumes are bullish.
Daily – Flat. Turned down at resistance (108.27) Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bearish.
The next target up is 108.29. The expected overbought level rises to 108.50.
A close below 106.98 would signal lower. The expected oversold levels rise to 106.33.
US30YR T-BOND_ USH25
Weekly – In a new October 2024 downtrend. Trade pressures decline into the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish.
Daily – Flat. In the move down from the 119-17 close on 12/09. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.
At the downside target range of 113-17. Oversold levels are 113-16.
A close above 115-05 would signal higher. Overbought levels are 115-20
[The 10yr yield overbought level rises to 4.61%.
Higher inflation expectations continue thru 1Q25 and 2Q25.]
Oil & Gas
#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures
CRUDE_ CLG25
Weekly – In the September 2024 downtrend. Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish.
Daily – Flat. The rally fails at 70.23. The close below the December trendline off the recent lows confirmed a new short from 70.23 on 12-17. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral.
A close below 70.53 did signal lower. The next target down is 67.63. The expected oversold level rises to 67.91.
A close above 71.50 would signal higher . The expected overbought levels rise to 71.29.
Use 71.50 as the SL.
NAT GAS_ NGG25
Weekly – Remains in the July 2024 downtrend. Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish.
Daily – Flat. In the move up off the October Median Line on 12/17 at 2.80. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.
The close above 3.19 did signal higher. The next target up is 3.56. The expected overbought level rises to 3.68.
A close below 3.26 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 3.17.
Metals
#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures
COPPER_ HGH25
Weekly – In the September 2024 uptrend; at support. Trade pressures are down but rising to the neutral zone. Volumes remain bearish.
Daily – Flat. December uptrend beaks down. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.
A close above 4.21 would still signal higher. The expected overbought levels hold at 4.25.
A close below 4.09 would signal lower. The expected oversold levels decline to 4.05.
GOLD_ GCG25
Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes remain bearish.
Daily – Flat, In the move down from the 2683 to the 2600 target. Trade pressures are down. Volumes remain bearish.
Breaks the 2665 support. The next target down is 2501. The expected oversold level declines to 2570.
A close above 2688 would signal higher. The expected overbought level declines to 2682.
SILVER_ SIH25
Weekly – Still in the December 2023 uptrend and testing support at 28.00. Trade pressures are down off the neural zone. Volumes remain bearish.
Daily – Flat. Breaks lower after failing support at 30.11. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now neutral.
At the June median line and at the oversold levels are 29.39.
A close above 30.25 would signal higher. Overbought levels are 30.69.
Navellier Top 5 Stocks for January
High-Growth Investments
Carpenter Technology Corporation
Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS) was a new addition to the High-Growth Investments Buy List in the November Monthly Issue. If you recall, Carpenter Technology develops specialty alloys, offering more than 500 alloys around the world. This includes stainless steels, nickel, cobalt, magnetic iron, powder metals and titanium.
After achieving its “most profitable first quarter” in the company’s history, Carpenter Technology is gearing up for another stunning quarterly earnings report, as demand remains robust for its alloys.
Second-quarter earnings are now forecast to jump 88% year-over-year to $1.60 per share, up from $0.85 per share in the same quarter a year ago. That’s also up from analysts’ estimates of $1.45 per share just a month ago. As you know, positive analyst revisions often precede future earnings surprises. Revenue is expected to grow 15.9% year-over-year to $723.62 million. CRS is a Moderately Aggressive buy below $194.
SOM Technicals:
12-13-24: Closed at 174.09. Trade pressures are down and trending. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 150.21.
12-29-24: Closed at 169.97. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral. The next target down remains 150.91.
Howmet Aerospace, Inc.
Howmet Aerospace, Inc. (HWM) is a Pennsylvania-based company that develops engineered solutions for the aerospace and industrial industries. Specifically, Howmet Aerospace operates four main businesses, including engine products, fastening systems, engineered structures and forged wheels.
The commercial aerospace market has been a particularly lucrative corner of Howmet Aerospace’s business recently, with commercial aerospace market revenue rising 17% year-over-year in the third quarter. I should also add that it accounts for more than 50% of its total business.
Given the strength of its business, analysts expect strong fourth-quarter results. Total fourth-quarter revenue is forecast to grow 8.6% year-over-year to $1.88 billion, while earnings are expected to increase 35.7% year-over-year to $0.72 per share. Analysts have also upped earnings estimates over the past two months, so a fifth-straight quarterly earnings surprise is likely. HWM is a Moderately Aggressive buy below $123.
SOM Technicals:
10-28-24: Opened at 102.08. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 102.88.
11-8-24: Closed at 113.65. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are neutral. The next target up is 115.38.
11-16-24: Closed at 112.01. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 108.64.
11-16-24: Closed at 118.44. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 119.28.
12-06-24: Closed at 118.31. Trade pressures are up but have turned down. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 120.71.
12-13-24: Closed at 113.43. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 106.65.
12-20-24: Closed at 110.83. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bullish. The next target down remains 106.95.
The Progressive Corporation
The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is a well-known insurance provider, offering everything from car, boat and motorcycle insurance to homeowners, renters and commercial insurance. The company also offers popular insurance bundles, where folks can bundle their auto and property insurance for lower rates. And Progressive continues to benefit from high insurance rates.
Just last week, Progressive reported that its net premiums written rose 18% year-over-year to $5.56 billion in November, and net premiums earned grew 19% year-over-year to $6.04 billion. The company also noted that earnings per share increased 48% year-over-year to $1.71 per share, up from $1.15 per share in November 2023.
So, fourth-quarter earnings are now forecast to rise 15% year-over-year to $3.42 per share, up from estimates of $3.08 per share a month ago. PGR is a Conservative buy below $259.
SOM Technicals:
4/27/24: Closed at 205.03. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 199.79.
5-4-24: Closed at 208.72. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bullish. The next target down is 206.06.
5-10-24: Closed at 210.17. Trade pressures are neutral. Volumes are bullish. The next target down is 211.49.
5-18-24: Closed at 209.22. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 201.34.
5-25-24: Closed at 203.91. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 191.19.
6-2-24: Closed at 211.18. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 214.90.
6-8-24: Closed at 212.53. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 219.12.
6-15-24: Closed at 203.92. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bearish. The next target up is 218.20.
6-23-24: Closed at 209.19. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bullish. The next target down is 206.
6-30-24: Closed at 207.71. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish. The next target up is 218.69.
7-5-24: Closed at 210.18. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 205.22.
7-12-24: Closed at 213.30. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 218.69.
7-20-24: Closed at 219.35. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are bearish. The next target down 212.57.
8-3-24: Closed at 216.94. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 240.00.
8-11-24: Closed at 221.73. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 227.32.
8-16-24: Closed at 236.77. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 244.22.
8-26-24: Closed at 242.45. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 246.40.
8-30-24: Closed at 252.20. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 261.59.
9-7-24: Closed at 248.69. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 244.68.
9-14-24: Closed at 255.46. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 267.50.
9-28-24: Closed at 251.10. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 244.03.
10-5-24: Closed at 255.36. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish The next target up is 262.01.
10-12-24: Closed at 254.02. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 256.27.
10-18-24: Closed at 251.12. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 242.32.
10-28-24: Closed at 244.31. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 235.46.
11-8-24: Closed at 261.52. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 266.04.
11-16-24: Closed at 255.78. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 251.43.
11-22-24: Closed at 266.08. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 268.04.
12-06-24: Closed at 254.04. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 249.66.
12-13-24: Closed at 251.80. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 256.89.
12-20-24: Closed at 239.97. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 228.01.
Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc.
Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (SFM) offers healthy, nutritional food at over 400 stores in 23 U.S. states. The company boasts that most of its food items are natural or organic, and it also provides many gluten-free, plant-based, grass-fed, non-GMO and raw food options.
At the start of every New Year, folks set their goals and resolutions for the upcoming 12 months – and often those goals include eating healthier and exercising more. Sprouts Farmers Market is directly aligned to profit from folks’ New Year’s resolutions to eat healthier.
As a result, it’s not too surprising that analysts have revised their earnings estimates higher for the next several quarters. Fourth-quarter earnings are expected to increase 47.3% year-over-year to $0.72 per share, up from estimates for $0.57 per share a month ago. As you know, positive analyst revisions typically precede future earnings surprises. SFM is a Conservative buy below $142.
SOM Technicals:
11-22-24: Closed at 147.13. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 148.56.
12-06-24: Closed at 154.04. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 155.87.
12-13-24: Closed at 147.79. Trade pressures are up but turning down. Volumes are bearish. the next target down is 142.69.
12-20-24: Closed at 131.70. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 126.86.
Targa Resources Corporation
Targa Resources Corporation (TRGP) is a midstream energy company that provides gathering and processing systems and logistics and transportation systems. The company operates more than 31,000 miles of natural gas pipelines and 53 processing plants, which service top natural gas and crude oil-producing basins in the U.S.
As you may have guessed, Targa Resources is well-positioned to benefit from Trump 2.0’s “drill, baby, drill” policies and the upcoming renaissance in natural gas. But even before this adds to the company’s top and bottom lines, the analyst community expects stunning results for its fiscal year 2024.
Full-year earnings are now forecast to more than double year-over-year to $6.50 per share, up from $3.00 per share in 2023. Earnings estimates have also been revised 6.2% higher in the past three months. TRGP is a Conservative buy below $188.
SOM Technicals:
5-25-24: Closed at 114.28. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 111.90.
6-2-24: Closed at 118.23. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 119.68.
6-8-24: Closed at 118.01. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 119.68.
6-15-24: Closed at 119.00. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 117.63.
6-23-24: Closed at 125.10. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 123.65.
6-30-24: Closed at 128.78. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 130.53.
7-5-24: Closed at 132.49. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 139.71.
7-12-24: Closed at 135.05. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 137.41.
7-20-24: Closed at 136.37. Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish. The next target up is 139.96.
8-3-24: Closed at 130.58. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 126.70.
8-11-24: Closed at 135.69. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 139.35, the prior high.
8-16-24: Closed at 142.83. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 150.00.
8-26-24: Closed at 145.47. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 151.82.
9-28-24: Closed at 146.80. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 140.89.
10-5-24. Closed at 158.02. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 159.07.
10-12-24: Closed at 165.76. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is169.90.
10-18-24: Closed at 162.75. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The next target down is 157.41.
10-28-24: Closed at 164.72. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 160.29.
11-8-24: Closed at 192.28. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 195.00.
11-16-24: Closed at 196.04. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 197.14.
11-22-24: Closed at 207.31. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 210.40.
12-06-24: Closed at 194.34. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 182.70.
12-13-24: Closed at 184.62. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 172.37.
12-20-24: Closed at 176.89. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 187.58.
S&P 500 Futures
Market Summary:
Copper attempted higher, now retesting the 4.00 support. Gold in retracement down, needs to hold support here. Silver triggers new long and fails.
Crude’s move down reverses. Natural Gas held 3.00 support, rallies to the 200 day MA and retraces.
The US 30yr Treasury Bond falls back.
The US Dollar now a long. The 10yr yields rise to 4.37%, near the 4.35% overbought expectations.
_________________
S&P 500 Futures #ESH25
Monthly –Monthly bar closes higher. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of November as bullish. The 6019 target was touched and did provide resistance, briefly. The next target up is 6602. A break below 5844 would confirm any weekly move lower. The next target down then would be 5844.
Weekly – The weekly has a lower close. Trade pressures remain up and rising. Volumes remain bullish. The 6127 target has been met. A close below 6040 would confirm any daily move lower.
Daily – Flat. Meeting resistance at the upper trendline, creating a lower high. Trade pressures are up but declining sharply to the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish.
The next target down is 6030 and would be a short entry.
A close above 6139 would signal higher and then the next target up would be 6266.
The expected oversold level rises to 6006.
The expected overbought level declines to 6112.
___________________
Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is marked to the market and is restarted at $100,000 for the 2024 year.
These Navellier Top 5 portfolio stocks closed:
down 35% for the 2022 Year.
up 17% for the 2023 Year.
Portfolio stock values for 2024.
The portfolio value declines to $148,000.
The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is up 48%.
[The author may be long or short any of these issues mentioned],
US$$
#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures
USD_ DXH25
Weekly – In the new October 2024 uptrend. Trade pressures remain up but are turning down. Volumes is now bullish.
Daily – Long. The close above 106.09 on 12/10 triggered the long trade. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.
The next target up is 107.52. The expected overbought level declines to 107.11.
A close below 106.40 would signal lower. The expected oversold levels rise to 105.94.
US30YR T-BOND_ USH25
Weekly – In a new October 2024 downtrend. Trade pressures rises just above the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish.
Daily – Flat. In the move down from the 119-17 close on 12/09. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.
The next target down is 115-22. Oversold levels are 116-28.
A close above 117-16 would signal higher. Overbought levels are 118-13
[The 10yr yield oversold level rises to 4.14%.
Higher inflation expectations continue thru 1Q25 and 2Q25.]
Oil & Gas
#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures
CRUDE_ CLF25
Weekly – In the September 2024 downtrend. Trade pressures are now up. Volumes are bullish.
Daily – Long. The first move up failed but a new close up on 12/13 above 69.84 . The close below the Sept trendline of the recent lows confirms the new short from 69.94 on 12-6. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.
The next target up is 73.72 . The expected overbought levels rise to 71.06.
A close below 70.53 would signal lower. Use this as the SL. The expected oversold level rises to 67.24.
NAT GAS_ NGF25
Weekly – Remains in the July 2024 downtrend. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish.
Daily – Flat. In the move down from the second touch of the 200 day MA at 3.51. Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bearish.
The next target down is 3.19. The expected oversold level rises to 3.10.
A close above 3.34 signals higher. The expected overbought level declines to 3.51.
[Set a SL for the short at 3.34]
Metals
#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures
COPPER_ HGH25
Weekly – In the September 2024 uptrend; still testing support. Trade pressures are down but rising to the neutral zone. Volumes remain bearish.
Daily – Flat. Higher highs and higher lows since 11/4. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.
A close above 4.26 would still signal higher. The expected overbought levels have risen to 4.25.
A close below 4.09 would signal lower. The expected oversold levels rise to 4.11.
GOLD_ GCG25
Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend. Trade pressures break support. Volumes are now bearish.
Daily – Flat, Still in the move down from the 2683 level but inside a longer up move . Trade pressures are down. Volumes remain bearish.
At 2665 support. The expected oversold level rises to 2627.
A close above 2688 would signal higher. The expected overbought level rises to 2755.
SILVER_ SIH25
Weekly – Still in the December 2023 uptrend but has turned down. Support at 28.00. Trade pressures are rising into the neural zone. Volumes are again bearish.
Daily – Flat. Retesting the rally off the low at the May Median line on 11/29 at 30.09. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.
The next target down is 30.39. Oversold levels are 29.39.
A close above 31.56 would signal higher. Overbought levels are 32.48.