The headline worries are over an extended US recession and rising unemployment. these worries are pushing the minerals and materials down in favor of more defensive names. for example, oils are down and PG and CL are up. At the same time, reports indicate that $US150 billion has flowed into mutual funds over the last 5 weeks. It wasn’t so long ago that we were talking about the $US50 billion per month outflows.

I will look for opportunity outside the US in the emerging markets/BRIC names as this downtrend matures.

S&P —
Long term indicators remain up and the 1025 target remains in place. The weekly has been in a pull back since reaching the January highs and the upside targets between 942 and 964. — this weekly retracement down is now at extended levels.

Daily – Price has triggered the down move today at 884.50. the next price objective down is 815.50. 871.75 is a recent low that will provide resistance, and downside pressure should end on 7/13. currently seeing some positive divergence, so may need to maintain close stops. A trade above 932 will make this down trade void. Dominant cycle is up.
(these conflicting signals usually mean sideways action)

Intraday Monday – a trade above 892.75 will start a retracement up of last weeks down move. I don’t expect it to go beyond 903.75-915.00.

Long term pressures remain up with a price target of 1025. a trade down thru 757 would restart the down trend and take it to 590.25. cycle pressures are now down thru Feb 0f 2010.

Daily pressures are down but extended. the long cycle ends jun 19th and a shorter cycle ends june 29th. the new entry price for the next leg up has been touched at 938.25 and the next target up is 1004.50. a trade below 883.50 will start a new down leg to 813.00. the recent low of 871 and the recent high of 953 will act as barriers to any move up or down and the two opposing cycles suggest consolidation within that range.

Longer term pressures remain up, with targets 1025 and 1150. but approaching new downward pressures lasting until Jan 2010. shorter down cycles end mid June 2009. but any upmoves will be influenced by the longer term downward pressures. The 1025 target is only a 38% retracement of the 2008 downtrend. While we don’t have to get there anytime soon, a failure to get there will be a sign of further weakness.

Daily upside targets remain the same, with downward pressures coming in til the close on jun 19th. Short entry on a close below the downward entry price of 859. A takeout of the January ’09 high is critical to a resumption of the uptrend, which makes a move up before a serious retracement more likely – this week’s pullback is setting up a rally; but a rally into those higher time frame downward pressures, so even if we get the breakout of the January highs, further moves up are likely to be resisted by the 947-964 short cycle targets.

11:50 am CST – ES@910

Monthly and Weekly – pressures remain up with the weekly becoming extended. upside targets are 964 and 1025 with the January high remaining as significant resistance. until that January high is taken out we are still in a retracement of the downmove. 739 will restart the down move with a 590 target.

Daily – buying pressure is up. next upside target 939.50 then 947. 859 will start the down move to 788.

Intraday – noon, has triggered a new down move here to 897.

The January high is 939.50 and the recent high is 929.50. All long term indicators remain up and extended. This move is in it’s 10th week and the cycle ends 5/29. Be careful of any new move up that does not take out the recent high.

Daily – the next target area remains 940-947. a trade down thru 858.50 will start a down move to 787.75. there are already lower highs on the intraday in a down move to the target of 889.

Long term has closed above the Entry Point of 845 which provides a new target of 1023.75. a trade below 711 will put the market back into the down trend with a 590 target.

Daily target of 904 has been met. expect consolidation above 867. next upside target is the january high at 942 and 947. 834 will start a new down move, to 1st target of 764.

the only groups that seems ready to move up, no signals yet, are the defensive stocks such as drug and biotech and early signs in the gold stocks such as AEM & NEM.

The long term buying pressures remain up, but extended. A long term Entry for a retracement of this down move from 1598 will be triggered with a monthly close above 845 with a target of 1028. 722 will restart the down move.

shorter term, the 867 target was met and the expected consolidation is underway. the next target on the upside is 904. a trade below 818 will start a retracement down of this recent up move. 1st downside target is 766.

this down cycle pressure should end 4/30. However, the longer term cycles begin downward pressures that will last til mid June.

Have met the upside target of 867. Expect consolidation and possible retracement to 836. next upside target is the 942-949 area. 794 restarts the daily move down.

Longer term pressures remain up with a 1023.75 target. the January high of 942 will act as resistance. 722 restarts the longer term down move.

8:27 CST S&P 842.75

Wells Fargo has surprised on the upside this morning with better than expected revenues. all financially related securities are responding.

the S&P index futures are up to the monthly long Entry Point again. the next price objective is 1025.75. 722 will be the Stop and Reverse point. the weekly is breaking thru the median line resisitance. all pressures are up.

Daily pressures are turning back up. a break thru the 848 high would allow us to continue to the 867.25 price objective and if price can get thru that then the 942 and the 948 objectives become probable. 778 wil stop this upmove and begin a retracement down.

cycle pressures show beginning downward pressures that will persist til 4/29.