many conversations on TV about the huge amount of dollars waiting to be invested … there are always huge dollars available to come into markets when they are ready. the press loves to attribute the daily $Trillions of worldwide buy and sell decisions to a single data point.

They never asked who was buying all that stock, and why, that was sold at the S&P-669 bottom in March.

Long term –
the 1025 target is in reach. the weekly 1015 target was met today , with the high of the day at 1016. many “lines in the sand” here. the next up target is 1052. the 38.2% retracement of the entire move down is at 1019. the nasdaq is near it’s 50% retracement of the downmove, outperforming the the S&P. both have very extended buying pressures. we are now in the 6th month of this rise – in a usual cycle of 8-10 months. we are in the 4th week of this second leg up on the weekly. 820 sets up a down move to 624.

Daily –
met the 1011 daily targets. the next up target is 1046. downward cycle pressures til 8/11, then upward pressure til 8/19; then i see the dominant cycle peaking, ushering in more significant downward pressures. 7 days into this upmove, buying pressure showing divergence. 944 starts a downmove to 874.

SDS – described certain buy & sell points previously. no entry was triggered.

S&P close 981.25.

oil – dollar – gold; all seem to be trading on comments out of china vis-a-vis china’s committment to continued stimulus for domestic growth. As the dollar declines, oil and gold rise.

Long term – pressures still pushing up to the 1025 monthly target. weekly pressures fully extended up. next target 1015.

Daily – the long entry point at 938 set up 993 which was touched today. 1011 and 1045 are the next targets, but showing divergences here at these levels. 925 will start the down move.

intraday – a trade down thru 977 produces a price objective of 962-955. a trade back up thru 993 keeps this rally alive.

! watch your SDS’s. EP 48.24 > 50.19/52.13 – Stp @ 46.30

Long Term –
continuing pressures up into the long term down cycle. next target up is 1025. a trade down thru 755 will signal failure and a new move down to new lows. this long term down cycle ends 10/29/09. we are challenging the recent highs at a confluence of many targets. a trade thru 964 sets up a shorter cycle target of 1015.

daily –
the 938 entry point is triggered next target is 993 and 1011. 884 will restart the down move.
extended pressures suggest this move up needs a pull back; then look for a second leg up.

last weeks numbers are still intact.
Weekly – last weeks high is 898.25, 939 restarts the upmove. pressures are fully extended down.
there is a reverse head and shoulders pattern forming. a trade down to the 836 “neckline” will give support to a new up move.

Daily – S&P broke down thru the 884 short entry, which was also the “neckline” on the the much publisized daily head and shoulders pattern. The decline was stopped at an old upside target. down cycle pressures ended today and the price reversal today put us back above the neckline. If this 890 price level holds and trades above 899 (31.8% retracement of the recent up move) then it will be properly classed as a head and shoulders “failure” – with an attendant move up.

But for the moment, we are having a retracement up in a down move to 815; keep very tight stops as the time cycles and buy/sell pressures are turning up. 928 voids the down move.

Wed July 15th – have moved up out of the down channel. 938 will trigger the long entry.

The headline worries are over an extended US recession and rising unemployment. these worries are pushing the minerals and materials down in favor of more defensive names. for example, oils are down and PG and CL are up. At the same time, reports indicate that $US150 billion has flowed into mutual funds over the last 5 weeks. It wasn’t so long ago that we were talking about the $US50 billion per month outflows.

I will look for opportunity outside the US in the emerging markets/BRIC names as this downtrend matures.

S&P —
Long term indicators remain up and the 1025 target remains in place. The weekly has been in a pull back since reaching the January highs and the upside targets between 942 and 964. — this weekly retracement down is now at extended levels.

Daily – Price has triggered the down move today at 884.50. the next price objective down is 815.50. 871.75 is a recent low that will provide resistance, and downside pressure should end on 7/13. currently seeing some positive divergence, so may need to maintain close stops. A trade above 932 will make this down trade void. Dominant cycle is up.
(these conflicting signals usually mean sideways action)

Intraday Monday – a trade above 892.75 will start a retracement up of last weeks down move. I don’t expect it to go beyond 903.75-915.00.

Long term pressures remain up with a price target of 1025. a trade down thru 757 would restart the down trend and take it to 590.25. cycle pressures are now down thru Feb 0f 2010.

Daily pressures are down but extended. the long cycle ends jun 19th and a shorter cycle ends june 29th. the new entry price for the next leg up has been touched at 938.25 and the next target up is 1004.50. a trade below 883.50 will start a new down leg to 813.00. the recent low of 871 and the recent high of 953 will act as barriers to any move up or down and the two opposing cycles suggest consolidation within that range.

Longer term pressures remain up, with targets 1025 and 1150. but approaching new downward pressures lasting until Jan 2010. shorter down cycles end mid June 2009. but any upmoves will be influenced by the longer term downward pressures. The 1025 target is only a 38% retracement of the 2008 downtrend. While we don’t have to get there anytime soon, a failure to get there will be a sign of further weakness.

Daily upside targets remain the same, with downward pressures coming in til the close on jun 19th. Short entry on a close below the downward entry price of 859. A takeout of the January ’09 high is critical to a resumption of the uptrend, which makes a move up before a serious retracement more likely – this week’s pullback is setting up a rally; but a rally into those higher time frame downward pressures, so even if we get the breakout of the January highs, further moves up are likely to be resisted by the 947-964 short cycle targets.

11:50 am CST – ES@910

Monthly and Weekly – pressures remain up with the weekly becoming extended. upside targets are 964 and 1025 with the January high remaining as significant resistance. until that January high is taken out we are still in a retracement of the downmove. 739 will restart the down move with a 590 target.

Daily – buying pressure is up. next upside target 939.50 then 947. 859 will start the down move to 788.

Intraday – noon, has triggered a new down move here to 897.

The January high is 939.50 and the recent high is 929.50. All long term indicators remain up and extended. This move is in it’s 10th week and the cycle ends 5/29. Be careful of any new move up that does not take out the recent high.

Daily – the next target area remains 940-947. a trade down thru 858.50 will start a down move to 787.75. there are already lower highs on the intraday in a down move to the target of 889.

Long term has closed above the Entry Point of 845 which provides a new target of 1023.75. a trade below 711 will put the market back into the down trend with a 590 target.

Daily target of 904 has been met. expect consolidation above 867. next upside target is the january high at 942 and 947. 834 will start a new down move, to 1st target of 764.

the only groups that seems ready to move up, no signals yet, are the defensive stocks such as drug and biotech and early signs in the gold stocks such as AEM & NEM.