Have reached the 1043 target.  the expected rally to the 1111 area was cut short in the overnight trading.
[update Tuesday 2:30pm CST – market recovers from a low of 1036.75, a 30 S&P point drop, to close near unchanged]

Long term – the next down target is 1006.  1183 will restart the move up. trade pressures are max down. time pressures down til June 25th.

Daily – the 1043 and the Feb low holding as support this Tuesday morning.  Trade pressures down. time pressures up.
next  down side target 1014 with multiple targets at 1000 and 991.
1080 is required to begin a retracement.

never had a entry price to move the market in a short retracement.

pre-market Futures are touching the spike low.
money in-flow has the US 10yr Treasuries at 3.1%; the euro yen cross is rising.

weekly and daily trade pressures are hard down.  time pressures remain up. so conditions exist for a rally.
next down target remains 1043.
1103 is required to start a retracement to 1148.
significant median line resistance above at 1111.

the hourly is at a down target, so some consolidation here is indicated.
watch the 30 yr bond futures for a selloff.

The Euro futures sold down to 1.2144 over the nite session, then today moved up nicely.  Can’t interpret this to be more than short covering.  But short covering rallies can be dramatic.
1.2274 started a small retracement rally to 1.2674. Need a trade thru 1.2855 on the weekly.

The S&P reacts to the Euro trading.

Technically, we are still in the long term monthly uptrend to 1342, until a trade below the 1019 level and then a 895 target.
inside that uptrend, the weekly has been in the sell trade from 1047 and the daily from 1190.

the downside target of 1043 remains for both the weekly and daily cycles.

todays low of 1098.75 was near the shorter cycle target of 1096, the next down side target is 1080.
a daily cycle retracement would be started with a trade above 1128, the next up target is 1158.
Time pressure is up til May 27th, then turns down thru Jun 21st.

Intraday– the time pressures are up. the intra-day trade pressures have turned up.
so, an intraday trade above 1119 might spark a small rally to the 1140.

Volatility is defined by days like today.  the rally looked for yesterday arrived and was stopped at the prior short entry of 1143 which then turned the market down to the 1111 target.

Daily – next target on the down side is 1096.50 with risk to 1048.75.  need to take out the high of May 18th to restart the up move.
trade pressures have turned down,  the time pressures turn down May 28th.
so look for some acceleration.

the China Shanghai stock market, down 20%, has crossed in to bear market territory.

the Euro zone 2008 GDP was $15.12 trillion compared to the USA 2008 GDP of $13.84 trillion.  Spain GDP of $1.6 trillion is the same size as California.  Greece at $356 billion is the same size as Virginia.  Italy has an economy of $2.7 trillion that is equal to Texas and Mexico combined.

China has a $4.3 trillion economy, much smaller by comparison, but because of their growth rate of almost 10% per year, controls the price of commodities at the margin.  the Euro Zone is reported to be China’s #1 trading partner.

The S&P is reacting to uncertainty as much as a slowdown in the world markets.

Long term – still in the upmove to 1365.  1019 will start a new down move to 821. the weekly cycle has the short retracement underway to 1043.  1200 will restart the up move to 1344.

Daily – still dealing with the “spike”.  the trade thru 1143 has moved down to one point away from the 1111.75 target.  the time pressures are now up.  trade pressures are now up.  1136 will start a move up to 1155.

intraday pressures are hard down, so the next move is likely up.

The spike down has been all but forgotten.  The euro sovereign debt problem is “solved” by providing liquidity to meet payments and the promise of spending cuts back to living within the countries’ means.  The US may want to think how to do that.

Despite the headlines, the S&P moved in to short territory moving thru 1147 on the weekly futures and 1190 on the daily.

Weekly – short from 1147. the next down target remains 1043.  1200 will restart the move up. time pressures are down thru June 25th.

Daily – the time pressures have turned up til the last week of May.  trade pressures are turning up.  long in the retracement trade from 1101 ; at the 1167 target, next target is 1191.  a trade thru 1140 will restart the move down to 1107.

[update] the Friday am futures are near the short entry of 1143.25, target 1111.

Monday morning futures are up 42 points from the Friday close.

Long term – short from 1147 and next target is 1044.
need a trade above 1200 to restart the bull move.

Daily – Long in the retracement up from 1101 to 1167. then next target up is 1191.
1121 starts a new leg down to the 1044 target.

A black swan day; a statistically unlikely event, down 1000 Dow points in one day.
that is roughly 100 S&P points. each point on the e-mini S&P futures contract is $50, so 100 points is a $5000 move per contract.
the value of the contract is the S&P price times the $50 – 1100 x $50= $55,000.
the performance bond required for each contract is slightly less than $6000.
1000 contracts, or $55,000,000, can be controlled with $6,000,000.
so, if a hedge fund (add the necessary zeros) gets on the wrong side of that trade and dumps them you can feel the multiplier effect thru S&P 500 stocks that the contracts represent.

Long term – the short entry price of 1147 was met confirming the short entry of 1190 on the daily.  the long term target is 1077 and 1044 was touched by the spike down yesterday. I would expect that price to be revisited.
long term trade and time pressures remain down.

Daily – time and trade pressures both down. next target is 1043.  1101 is a long entry price to start a retracement to 1147 and we have traded thru it this Friday am, but the trade and time pressures don’t support the entry – wait.

China’s market responding to china’s eforts to reduce the stimulus measure.

S&P lower high was made on May 3rd and we have today taken out the lower low of last week.   the previous sell trigger should have protected any long positions.
the futures have now moved down quickly to the days low of 1164.25, very near the 1163.50 target projected.

Long Term –
is still in the move up with a target of 1221. a move below 1147 starts the move down. both time and trade pressures are down.

Daily –
Both time and trade pressures are down.  the down cycle ends May 11th.
in the move down from 1190.25 to the first target of 1163.50 then to 1150.  Final target down is 1110.
will need to take out the recent highs to restart a move up.

the projected 1217 target was met yesterday; where we would normally expect some consolidation or retracement.  the retracement began almost immediately and was sufficient to trigger the short entry.

time pressures have turned down on both the weekly and the daily.
trade pressures are down on all time frames.

weekly –

1221 is the next target up, but we have traded below last weeks low, and a trade below 1147 will confirm the long term short  – with a first target of 1077.

Daily –
todays trade below 1190.25 triggered the short entry, the next target is 1163.50.  it will take a trade to new highs to restart the bull move again.  the cycle suggest that time pressures will turn up May 11th.