move up today reportedly on the expectations of QE3. who really buys on the hope that govt will act or react?
the chinese manufacturing activity rise more likely the cause.
have broken the hourly down channel to the upside.
the retracement trade inside the longer term down move is long to 1191 and then to 1241.
the long entry was adjusted down to 1143 from 1149.
a move down thru 1135 could start a new move down.
Daily – still in the downward time pressures. trade pressures are down.
the 1140 area is a pivot point for up to down. the next target down is 1075.
the move up is triggered with a trade thru 1149 to 1247.
intraday cycle is in the move up now.
the Morgan Stanley report lowering the global growth forecast to 3.9%
has renewed fears of a euro crisis and the knock on effects to earnings in the US.
the downward time pressures remain in place thru thankgiving.
trade pressures are turning up.
the daily has triggered a short entry to 1075 which is a retest of the recent lows.
a move up thru 1163 would signal a restart of the move up to 1260.
1131 is the intraday downside target, so some pause is likely here.
Weekly_ time pressures are down thru thankgiving.
trade pressures have turned up.
the downside target of 1091 was met on the spike down.
1173 is the long entry to 1269.
Daily_ in the long trade from 1165 to 1252.
trade pressures are up. time pressures are down thru 9/06.
a trade down thru 1120 is a reversal signal.
in the weekly trade down to 1091.
longer Time pressures down and trade pressures are down.
Daily trade is down thru the 1158 target. the next target is 1028.
time pressures are down til Sept 6th. Both crude and silver have time pressures ending on the 10th of august. copper pressures end the 18th.
1129 is the 62% retrace of the move up from the july 2010 lows and trade pressures are oversold, so, maybe a bounce soon.
a trade up thru 1160 could rally to 1197.
volatility is 40 – 60 points a day.
The daily met the 1238 target, rallied over night and then was met with hard selling all day today, Thursday.
the next target down is 1196. with all the time frames oversold and the 1196 target is likely a point of support.
the lowest estimate for S&P 500 companies is $100 per share for next year, we are at 12x those earnings now, so valuation is 1200 and we are here now.
a move up thru 1228 could start a retracement up 1265.
second leg down on the 26th triggered a sell with the target of 1238.75.
the time pressures turn down aug 18th. but trade pressures are oversold.
a move up thru 1296 could start a short rally to 1333.
may have a correction up after the actual signing of the debt ceiling bill tonight.
but hard to see how the gov’t cuts will not slow the economy.
probably stick to companies that do a majority of their business in the healthier Asian economies.
banks, as a group, seem to be ready for a move.
trading sideways in a down move from 1300 to 1298.
long term downward time and trade pressures til October 28th.
the daily trade is up to 1354 and then 1389,
with the time pressures turning down on aug 8th.
the move down thru 1325 triggered the trade to 1296 [Tuesday overnight low].
the time pressures are up. the trade pressures are still down.
the intraday trade back up thru 1314 on the 60 min cycle has triggered a corrective move back up to 1335.
Jobs report showing very uneven and lumpy growth; but no panic showing in the vix index.
trade pressures remain up. time pressures up thru early august.
next target up is 1384.50
a trade down thru 1325.50 is a signal for lower.