The monthly is testing the bearish move below the MACD.
could be a strong bullish signal if we can close the month up and the MACD remains up.
need to close above 1381.50.

the weekly needs a close above 1391.00 for a new long entry.

and the Daily triggered the long entry today at 1359.75 with the next target of 1392. so we can see the confluences at work.
expect resistance at the 1392 level.
the MACD turns positive tomorrow the 20th, look for follow thru.
the important levels will be the triple top at 1431. if those can be taken out then a test of the recent highs is likely.

if the rally fails then 1323 will be the next downside target.

S&P_ the monthly closed into a downtrend. the weekly trade has closed at the 1368 target.
price is above critical moving averages and the pressures are near the over bot levels, suggesting some relief from this move down.

the daily trade is down but at the 1365 target.  expect consolidation and a possible move up.
a trade up through 1415 would signal a new move up.
a shorter cycle trade up through 1382 would test that longer cycle entry price.

a failure of this 1365 support level would quickly send the market down to 1324.

S&P monthly trade remains in the uptrend, the weekly remains in the downtrend.
Election confusion?

the Daily trend crossed over to a bullish trend on Nov 2nd.
a trade back down into the bearish trade would setup a new move down to 1376.

But for now, the technicals are in the long trade from 1413 to the 1442 target.
a trade below the 1393 low will cancel the long trade.

Intraday, 60 min _ this reversal is worrisome,
and has produced a short trade signal with a target down to 1390 which breaks the 1393 lows.
this would run some stops and could produce a sell off to the 1364 target.

[Nov 7, 2012 Update]

the trade below 1393 has triggered those stops.
the next test is the Sep lows of 1387.

the current downside targets are 1376 and 1364

it will take a reversal above 1407 to stop this momentum down

the weekly S&P remains in the downtrend to 1368.
the daily is in the downtrend and has touched the downside target of 1395.

a move up above 1413 would trigger a long signal to 1444.

pressures are turning up.

S&P 500_ after the sharp drop on Friday the 19th, the monthly remains in an uptrend, the weekly has broken down and is in the sell.

the Daily has traded down thru the sell signal and is now about to test the prior week’s lows.
the next target down is 1410 and then 1379.

the intraday pressures are oversold,
so a move up thru 1445 would retrace enough of the move down and start a new move up to the 1491 target.

the Monthly target of 1523 remains active. pressures are up and trending.
Higher highs and higher lows are the order of the day.

the weekly target of 1473 is providing some resistance.

the long Daily trade is slowing, last week any move up was met with profit taking.
pressures remain up. 1492 is the next target up.

it would not be unexpected to see the market trade down to the recent lows of 1422.

S&P_ monthly remains up with 1525-1531 as the next targets up.
weekly also up with the next target up of 1472.

downward time pressure begin the week of September 17th.
the support level of 1398 must hold to maintain the uptrend.

Daily- the next target up is 1492.
respect this uptrend but expect some pullbacks.  1450 would trigger a short entry to 1422.
the long consolidation area around 1390 that took place in august is the likely area to see substantial buying come in should the pullback get extended.

what could happen? the hedge funds in need of performance, buy enough to get the DOW 30 to it’s all time high of 14,198. we have come from 12,035 in jun to 13, 593 in sept. what’s another 600 points.  most likely a pullback first.

Monthly and weekly targets are 1525 and 1456 respectively.
pressures are trending to neutral.
the Daily trade is long from 1419. the next target up is 1441.

the long cycle target of 1337 is acting as resistance.
a move down thru 1421 should begin a retracement to 1394.

pressures are up.

the monthly and weekly are still in the move up. the next target up is 1456-1478.

the daily is in the move down to 1386.  today’s close of 1397 is a test of last week’s low.
a move below that could set up a quick move down.

the key is the Euro, any indication from the ECB that they will act ot stabilize European interest rates by buying sovereign bonds would set a new rally in motion.  this is also the last quarter for the under-performing hedge funds to make an improvements on their 2012 returns. So, what ever the move is to be; it should be exaggerated.

So, while it is much better to trade what is, rather than what should be, the most likely scenario “should” be a decline as the fed speeches indicate no more FED QE3, only to be followed later with some ECB bond buying which should generate a rally into the election.

please remember that QE3 and ECB bond buying are not adding Net New Financial assets to the private system, they are replacing the existing bonds with cash.  the cash would shore up financial system reserves and not necessarily result in more lending. so not inflationary. this means don’t chase the metals, be ready to take profits in them as the market moves them up on the initial “QE3/ECB” trade.

S&P monthly and weekly remain in the uptrend.
Daily has moved into a downtrend.
the new high and then a reversal at the close yesterday is troubling for the longs.

a daily close below 1407 will start a new move down.
the first target is 1380.

a move above the previous highs will signal a new move up to the 1430-1440 area.

the FEZ and FXI ETF’s are indicators of Europe and China, respectively.

FEZ has had a nice move up and is at target; expect consolidation.
can trade this thru the currency futures.

FXI had a similar move up and has now entered into a short trade to 33.59.
however the downward pressures seem to be expended, so be alert for a new move up.
watch copper and FCX as proxies for this FXI index