Monthly – trade pressures and volume pressure remain up. the target remains 2223.

Weekly_ trade and volume pressures remain up. next target up is 2096.

Daily  – trade pressures and volume pressures remain up.
consolidated briefly at the 1906 and 1914 targets.
then with the announcement of easing interest rates in Europe, two good up-days have broken out of that consolidation.
the next target up is 1956 and then 1970.

The 1970 target is a 100% move off the Feb 5th correction low.  so, look for significant resistance there.

a break below 1822 could signal a corrective move down to 1879.

 

[June 18th: have tested the short entry last week, never closed below. now moving to the 1970 target.
an up volume day today.]

Monthly- pressures remain up and the next target up is 2219.
weekly-  pressures are up, but declining. the 1883 target has acted as support. the next target up is 2098.

Daily- in the long trade up. the next target is 1907 and 1914.
pressures are up but getting extended.

a move down thru 1877 would signal lower.

Copper and oil moving up, the dollar getting a little stronger.
the T-bonds are looking for a small correction.

the market keeps worrying about the Fed starting to sell off the bonds in their portfolio.
Will never happen – unless they want to cool some inflation.
Most probably, the FED will let their portfolio of bonds mature and turn into cash on the FED balance sheet.
then they can choose to send the money to the US Treasury or “destroy” the funds in the same way they were “created” in the first place.

Monthly_ the pressures are up the next target up is 2223.

Weekly_ pressures remain up, but the trade is down with a 1776 target.
a close above the 1892.50 highs would cancel that short trade.

Daily_ pressures are just down, the trade remains long from the 1842 long entry.
have to remember this long trade is inside the weekly short trade,
so probably can’t go far unless the 1892.50 highs are taken out.

a close below 1861 could restart the Daily short trade.

Monthly_
still long consolidating at the 1853 target. pressures remain up.

Weekly_
short next target down is 1776. pressures remain up.

Daily_
Pressures are up. in the long trade from the 1842 entry price.
the next target is 1906. significant resistance at the old highs of 1892.50.

a close today (Friday into the weekend) below 1861 could start a new move down.
the next target down would then be 1827, then 1793.
the older unmet target of 1778 is just below that. and the weekly target is 1776.

geopolitical events can make this happen quickly.
but it is interesting that gold, that shiny rock of fear, does not suggest disaster.

Monthly_ still long with a 2223 target. 1761 is a recent target that should act as support.

Weekly_ has traded thru the 1823 short entry and is projecting a 1776 nearby target and a lower target at 1709.

Daily_ (which is the trading time frame)
had signaled a move down from 1865 and then triggered a second leg down from 1852 this last week.
so, now there is a lower low.
the 1805 target was almost touched on Friday with an intraday low of 1807.25.
the next target is 1778 with perhaps an excursion further down to 1767.

need a close above 1847 to turn the market long again.

lower mortgage originations took the bank prices down. could see the fed respond with lower rate talk.

Monthly_

have reached the 1853 target. the next target up is 2223.
the old 1761 target has acted as support.

Weekly_

the 1863 target is reached. the next target up is 2098.
the weekly trend remains long until a trade below 1823.

Daily_ the trading time-frame.

the March 7th high of 1880 traded thru the 1868 target then produced some wide ranging consolidation.
a short trade was triggered at the 1851 level but had no follow thru and was stopped at the moving averages.
the excessive daily ranges would have precluded any trades

Last weeks low volume action traded thru the 1880 high but was unable to hold the level.

as the high beta stocks were sold,  the market moved back below the 1868 target.

technically the move is still long from the 1862 trade with 1919 as the next target up.
but the move down on Friday feels as tho the 1823 lows may be tested.

[Update: Wed 4/10,  is closing near these lows]

a move below the 1823 lows resumes the short trade to 1766. First target down is 1805.

 

 

 

Monthly – the 1853 target is acting as resistance.

Weekly – the next target up is 1897. the move down will be confirmed with a move below the 1797 level.

Daily – the daily trade is still long, but the high of friday tested the 1864 target and pulled back.

the short entry is nearby at 1840. if triggered then the target is the 1800 level.
pressures are extended up {overbot} and need some time to resolve.

These projections based on a time series may seem a bit arcane.
But if one thinks of the price action as embodying the information held by, and the decisions made by, the market participants;
then this price action can be thought of as a derivative of fundamental information flow.

the index cycles roughly correspond to the quarterly information flow.

Monthly remains bullish with a 1853.75 target.

Weekly is testing the prior 1848.50 highs. pressures are down.

Daily is in the long trade from the 1782 entry.
the next target is 1863 with a test of the prior highs at 1846.50.
the 127 extension is at 1874 and is our likely target for this move up.

a trade down thru 1802 could signal failure of the move up and start a new move down.

Monthly remains bullish with an 1853 target.

Weekly has traded thru the short entry but has not yet closed below the 1779 price.

The Daily is long.  the long entry for the new move up was 1782. the next target is 1863.
there is a number of resistance areas around the 1801 level. these may be enough to stop the new move up.

The daily had traded down to the 1732 level, but did not meet the 1720 target.
look for that to be tested with any new move down.

Update 2/12: the 1801 level and the 61.8% had no impact. this opens the move up to the 1863 target and then the 127% retracement of 1874.
the 1846 high will be the next test of resistance.

a break below yesterday’s low at 1793 will signal lower.

Monthly remains bullish until a break below 1662.

Weekly in a short trade after the close below 1779. the target down is 1666.

The Daily trade is short from the 1815 short entry. 1719 is the next target down.
trade pressures are oversold.
time pressures are down til the 24th of Feb.

— need a move above 1784 to restart the move up.
looks to be difficult.  at 1784, the talking heads will be pointing to a “developing head and shoulders pattern”,
but if the market can grind to a close above 1802, that could be enough to set a new direction.

not going to be easy this time.