Market Pressures _  #tradesummary

• Copper is in the move down and grinding lower. Gold and Silver are in a move up perhaps reflecting the Global uncertainties; but both are near upside targets.
• Crude oil has pulled back as expected. Natural Gas dropped down thru the support levels and could start a new move down.
• The US 30 year Treasury Bonds is behaving as a safe haven trade with money flowing into the futures.
• The US Dollar Futures attempted a rally but it seems to have failed. This weekend French election results will impact both the US dollar and the US Treasury Bonds.

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S&P 500 Futures_  #emini

Monthly – The monthly remains in  the uptrend. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of March as bullish. The April volumes seem to be much lower than the recent monthly averages.

Weekly – The 2328 weekly confirmation of the Daily move down was triggered the prior week. The market moved up off that level this last week. Trade pressures are up but rolling over. Volumes continue to be bearish.

Daily – Flat. In the move down from 2358 short entry. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are now bullish.

These quickly vacillating trade pressures are suggesting a rotational correction; but the underlying move is still bearish.

The 2319 target has been tested two times. A third time is not likely to hold. The next target down is 2301.

A close above 2399 is required to restart any upmove.

An event driven flow of funds could forestall this move down. The first French Election results will be available over the weekend. A Le Pen surge could raise the prospects of a French departure from the European Union. Currencies and the Index futures would move rapidly.

The Sunday night futures sessions will be interesting.

[4-23-17: Macron and Le Pen go into the last round of French elections. Macron is favored as a centrist candidate.

Fear down. Risk up.

The Euro and the S&P index rallies, The US Dollar futures and Gold futures fall. ]

Market Pressures _

Copper is at downside targets. Gold and Silver are both moving up with the geopolitical uncertainty but near upside targets. This next week may see a removal of the Easter hedges.

The crude rally is also near upside targets; so would be alert for profit taking. Natural gas pulled back to the 25×5 moving average and is now consolidating.

The US 30yr Treasury bonds have rallied with the safe haven trade.

The US Dollar futures have renewed their move down.

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S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – The month is down this first two weeks. trade pressures are up. Volumes closed the month of March as bullish. A close below 2180 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – In a new move down from the 2328 level. Trade pressure are up but turning down. volumes are bearish. The close below the 2328 level has confirmed the Daily down move. The next target down is 2211.

Daily – Flat. Look for new short entries on any rally. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

In the move down for the 2358 level. The next target down is 2319.

Need a close above 2399 to signal a new move up.

This US bluster about Bombing is making me nervous; too many generals.

Market Pressures_  #tradesummary

• Copper remains directionless with high volatility. Gold spiked up with the Syrian bombing by the US, But then dropped back almost as quickly. Silver remains in an uptrend with similar reactions as the Gold contract.
• Crude Oil rose with gold and the bomb attack; but also dropped back. Natural gas had a small reaction, but was at a profit target which likely minimized any reaction.
• The US 30 Yr Treasury bonds rose with the Syrian bomb attacks but also retreated to the earlier levels as did the metals and crude oil.
• The US Dollar futures rallied and triggered a new uptrend.

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S&P 500 Futures_  #emini

Monthly – The spinning top signaled a possible reversal. Trade pressures are up. Volumes closed the month of March as bullish. A close below 2180 would confirm a weekly short signal.

Weekly – Holding above the short confirmation level. Trade pressures are up, but appear to be rolling over. Volumes have changed to neutral. A close below 2338 would confirm a Daily short signal.

Daily – Flat. The Short entry at 2358 is still active. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 2319.

A close above 2394 could signal a new move up.

Market Pressures_

Copper has no conviction. Gold has signaled higher but looking for a better entry, Silver is also in a new move up and looking for a pullback.

Crude oil is in anew long trade looking for $54, but with tight stops. Natural gas is continuing the move up off the second long entry signal.

The US 30 Year Treasury Bond is in a long trade with tight stops.

The US Dollar futures are rallying in the downtrend and at resistance.

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S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – Closed the month with a “Spinning Top”. Trade pressures are up and trending. Volumes closed the month of March with bullish volume.

Weekly – Tested the short confirmation at 2329 of the Daily; but no close below. Trade pressures are up but rolling over. Volumes changed from bearish to bullish.

Daily – Flat. In the move down from the 2351 short entry. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

After a move down to the first target at 2319, The short trade was stopped out at the 2360 stop for a 9 pt loss.

Be alert for a new short entry at the same 2358 level.

Need the pressures to confirm.

 

 

Market Pressures_

• Copper is at a pivot, and could go either way. Gold is trying to move above weekly resistance. Silver is in a new long trade.
• Crude is at the downside target and will be dependent on any move in the dollar. Natural gas is trying to make a second attempt at a long trade from the 2.97 entry level.
• The US 30 year has entered a new long trade. Use tight stops.
• The US Dollar futures are at support, but still seeing downward pressures.

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S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – The 2401 highs are holding. Trade pressures are up and trending. Volumes closed the February month as bullish. A close below 2180 would confirm any weekly move down.

Weekly – Still in the uptrend. Trade pressure are up, showing a hint of a downturn. Volumes have turned bearish. A close below 2328 would confirm any new daily move down.

Daily – Short. The close below 2358 has triggered a new short entry. Trade pressures are down. Volumes have changed from bearish to neutral.

The short trade was entered at 2351. The next target down is 2319 and 2301.

Stops are at the 2388 recent high.

[3-28-17 Update: lower stops to 2360, today’s high.]

[3-30-17 Update: The 2319 target was met, then price rallied and was stopped out at the 2360 level for a 9 pt loss.]

 

 

 

 

Market Summary_  #tradesummary

• Copper has signaled a new long. Gold and Silver have both been stopped out of their respective short trades.
• Crude had a sharp move down. Look for a retracement move up. Natural gas had a new long move but was stopped out at for a break-even.
• The US 30 year Treasury Bond has a new short entry, but indicators say wait.
• The US Dollar futures declined after the FED raised rates. Expectations may have been fully discounted, or the market doesn’t like the rate increase. Will have to see what the reason is after some time passes.

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S&P 500 Futures_  #eminfutures

Monthly – Still trading around the 2401 highs. Trade pressures are up and trending. Volumes closed the February month as bullish. Volumes have declined for three successive months. A close below 2180 would confirm a weekly move down.

Weekly – Remains in the uptrend. Trade pressures are up and trending. Volumes remain bullish. The next target up is 2487. A close below 2328 would confirm any daily move down.

Daily – Flat. In the move up from the 2275 long entry. Trade pressures are in the neutral zone. Volumes are mixed, bullish-bearish-neutral.

The next targets up are 2413-2427.

The 2358 short entry was traded thru intraday, but did not close below that level. Trade pressure divergences suggest downward pressures to come soon.  Time may also show some downward pressures in the last week of March.

[Update 3-23-17: Short the June contract @2351]

 

Market Summary_

• Copper may be completing the retracement move down. Gold and silver are still shorts, but with close stops.
• Crude broke down thru the $52 lower bound and moved sharply lower. Natural gas has turned up and is in a new long trade.
• The US Treasury bonds have moved down in anticipation of a March rate increase. A new short entry is signaled.
• The US dollar futures are down the last two days of this week. Should be moving up with a rate increase, so watch for a reason.

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S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – In the move up from the 2152 level. Trade pressures are up and trending. Volumes closed bullish for the month of February.

Weekly – Experiencing a pullback in the move up. The next target up is 2487. A close below 2328 would confirm a new move down. Trade pressures are up and trending. Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Flat. In the move up from the 2275 long entry. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes have returned to bullish.

The next target up is 2413-2427.

A close below 2358 would signal lower. The expected Daily target of 2241 is higher than the weekly short confirmation indicating any quick move down is likely temporary.

The FED is expected to raise rates at the next meeting. Even though expected, the market could react negatively. The US dollar futures are down and should be rising, so be alert for volatility.

Market Summary_

• Copper is in a retracement down. Gold and silver are at or near a new short entry.
• Crude is pulling back to the lower bound of the 52-54 range.  Look for a break or a bounce there. Natural Gas is at weekly downside targets so look for some consolidation.
• The US Treasury Bonds have made an attempt to go higher in price but the FED rate hike talk has stopped the move.
• The US Dollar futures have trended higher on the same FED talk, but sold off on Friday. The rate hike should cause the dollar futures to rise, unless the market interprets the dollar rise sufficient to choke off trade and growth.

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S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – In the 5th month of this move up. Trade pressures are up and trending. Volumes closed the month of February as bullish. The next target up is 2768. A close below 2180 would confirm a new move down.

Weekly – Six weeks of an up move. Trade pressures are up and trending. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 2487. A close below 2328 would confirm a new move down.

Daily – Flat. In the move up from 2275. Trade pressures are up but rolling over. Volumes have changed to neutral (distribution).

The next target up is 2413-2427.

A close below 2362 could signal a new move down. 2323 is short term support.

Market Pressures_ #trade summary

• Copper has pulled back to the first downside target should consolidate here. Both Gold and Silver have moved into a new weekly uptrend.
• Crude oil has moved up over the last two weeks to upper bound of the 52-54 channel. Natural gas continues the steady decline.
• The US 30 yr Treasury bond has move up in price with some weekly confirmation.
• The US dollar remains below the 101.50 level with a downward bias.

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S&P 500 Futures_ #eminifutures #spfutures

Monthly – In the second leg up of a 12 month move up and 4 months up from the 2152 long confirmation level. Trade pressures are up and trending. Volumes remain bullish for the last 10 months. The next monthly target up is 2766. A close below 2146 would signal lower.

Weekly – In this move up for 5 weeks. Trade pressures are up and trending. Volumes remain bullish. The next weekly target up is 2487. A weekly close below 2292 would confirm a move lower.

Daily – Flat. Eleven day into this move up that started Feb 2nd and have reached the 2351 and the 2363 targets. Trade pressures are up and trending. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 2413.

A close below 2328 could signal lower.

The averages seem stretched in terms of valuations, but selected stocks are not and the rotation to them carries this market higher – for the moment. So, yes, there will be a correction; but from where?

Market Pressures_

• Copper  went to the 2.77 target and pulled back. Gold is looking a bit stronger, needs to break thru the weekly resistance.. Silver is grinding higher but also at weekly resistance.
• Crude is stuck in the 51-54 channel. Natural gas is in a steady move down.
• The US Treasury futures are in a small move up in price, but support is nearby and could be broken.
• The US Dollar futures are in neutral territory.

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S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – In the move up from the 2153 long confirmation. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of January as bullish. The next monthly target up is 2766. A close below 2127 would confirm a new move down.

Weekly – In the move up from the 2016 2045 level. Trade pressures are up and trending. Volumes are bullish. The next weekly target up is 2487. A close below 2276 would confirm a move down.

Daily – Flat. In the move up from the 2275 long entry. Trade pressures are up and extended. Volumes remain bullish.

At the 2351 target, expect consolidation and retracement here. The next target up is 2413.

This low volume market is concerning. A close below 2312 would signal a new move down.