Market Summary:

Copper Short after new contract highs.  Gold to ATH’s once again; take profits. Silver short, support at 32.43.

Crude consolidating at the 200 day MA.  Natural Gas, Long with a breakout of the small bull flag.

The US 30yr Treasury up to resistance, watch for breakout. The 10yr yields consolidating around 4.25%.

The US Dollar in a month long base now attempting a rally.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESM25

Monthly –Monthly bar closes continues to test the lower median line from 10/23. Trade pressures remain up, but declining. Volumes closed the month of February as bullish, March will close with bearish volume.  The 6233 price remains the adjusted high. The next target down is 5324. A close above 6065 would confirm any weekly move higher.

Weekly – The weekly bar lower than prior close.  Trade pressures remain down. Volumes are now bearish.  The next target down is 5324. A close above 5728 would confirm any daily move higher.

Daily – Flat. Closed with a sharp move down.  At the 5623 downside target which is a backtest of the 3/24 breakout level. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 5566. The expected oversold level rises to 5566.

A close above 5729 would signal higher; then 5793.  The expected overbought level rises to 5795.

(Still looking for a bear market rally, usually volatile and short lived. Watch the 5623 level for signs of support.)

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Market Summary:

Copper retracing from new contract highs.  Gold to ATH’s, now retracing. Silver retracing, support at 32.43.

Crude off the lows in a bear flag.  Natural Gas in a move down toward mid three’s.

The US 30yr Treasury in consolidation. The 10yr yields consolidating around 4.25%.

The US Dollar in a month long base with Euro currencies stronger.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESM25

Monthly –Monthly bar closes holds at the lower median line from 10/23. Trade pressures remain up, but declining. Volumes closed the month of February as bullish.  The 6181 price remains the high. The close below 5870 did confirm a weekly move lower. The next target down is 5419. A close above 6069 would confirm any weekly move higher.

Weekly – The weekly forms a bullish bar.  Trade pressures remain down. Volumes are bullish.  The close below 5911 confirmed the daily move lower.  The next target down is 5324. A close above 5875 would confirm any daily move higher.

Daily – Flat. At the 5537 downside target. Trade pressures are just above the neutral zone.  Volumes are bullish.

The next target down is 5606. The expected oversold level rises to 5501.

A close above 5744 would signal higher. The expected overbought level declines to 5740.

(Look for a bear market rally, usually volatile and short lived.)

[3-24-25: Long @ 5744. Raise the SL to 5795.]

[3-25-25: Pre-market AM. raise SL to 5816.] [& Stopped out in the opening hour.]

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Market Summary:

Copper pulls back and rallies again to contract highs.  Gold lower highs tutn into a bull flag and then a break out to ATH’s. Silver mirrors gold.

Crude fails at the September trendline support, holding just below.  Natural Gas, a second rally and a second retracement which has now broken the trend line down.

The US 30yr Treasury pulls back to Feb trendline support. The 10yr yields consolidating around 4.30%.

The US Dollar is now Flat, and at downside targets.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESH25

Monthly –Monthly bar closes well below the prior week’s range. Trade pressures remain up, but declining. Volumes closed the month of February as bullish.  The 6181 price remains the high. The close below 5870 did confirm a weekly move lower. The next target down is still 5523. A close above 6082 would confirm any weekly move higher.

Weekly – The weekly has yet another lower close.  Trade pressures remain down. Volumes remain bearish.  The close below 5911 confirmed the daily move lower. The first target down of 5619 is met. The next target down is 5272. A close above 5883 would confirm any daily move higher.

Daily – Flat. At the 5564 downside target. Trade pressures remain down but a smal rise is developing.  Volumes are now neutral.

The next target down is 5631. The expected oversold level declines to 5456.

A close above 5724 would signal higher. The expected overbought level declines to 5850.

Some basing is likely here and could generate some short covering, which would be a possible re-shorting opportunity.
(Perhaps the market is seeing some tariff relief? But even that won’t turn the GDP numbers higher soon.)

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Market Summary:

Copper rallies to resisitance.  Gold rallies, but to lower highs. Silver rallies from its selloff, also to lower highs.

Crude fails at the September trendline support.  Natural Gas breaks out of retracement to new highs.

The US 30yr Treasury Bond at the 119 upside target. The 10yr yields consolidating.

The US Dollar is now a short, whipping about with every pronouncement.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESH25

Monthly –Monthly bar closes well below the prior week’s range. Trade pressures remain up but declining. Volumes closed the month of February as bullish.  The 6181 price remains the high. The close below 5870 did confirm a weekly move lower. The next target down is be 5523.

Weekly – The weekly has another lower close.  Trade pressures remain down. Volumes increase again but bearish now.  The close below 5911 confirms the daily move lower. The next target down is 5619.

Daily – Flat. Down from the 3/3 trendline backtest at 5972. Trade pressures remain down.  Volumes are now bullish.

The next target down is 5631. The expected oversold level declines to 5695.

A close above 5839 would signal higher. The expected overbought level declines to 6024.

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Market Summary:

Copper basing at the 4.55 target.  Gold breaks down from the consolidation channel. Silver breaks the trend into a hard selloff.

Crude moves up off the September trendline support.  Natural Gas remains in retracement.

The US 30yr Treasury Bond in a second move up off the 110 lows to 118; rollover. The 10yr yields decline, now below 4.25%.

The US Dollar is now a long.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESH25

Monthly –Monthly bar closes at the low end of the prior week’s range. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of February as bullish.  The 6181 price remains the high. The next target up is 6633.  A close below 5870, would confirm a weekly move lower. The next target down would be 5523.

Weekly – The weekly has another lower close.  Trade pressures remain down. Volumes increase but remain bullish.  A close below 5905 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Long; Long from 5905 in the PM friday the 28th.  Stopped out of the move down from 6090 at 6047. Trade pressures remain down.  Volumes are now bullish.

The next target up is 5990. The expected overbought level declines to 6154.

The next target down is 5781. The expected oversold level declines to 5824.

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Market Summary:

Copper retracement at the 4.55 target.  Goldin a consolidation channel. Silver consolidating after a move down..

Crude testing lower consoldation channel.  Natural Gas in retracement.

The US 30yr Treasury Bond in a second move up off the 110 lows. The 10yr yields decline, now below 4.50%.

The US Dollar remains a short.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESH25

Monthly –Monthly bar closes inside the prior week’s range. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of January as bullish.  The 6181 price remains the high. The next target up is 6633.  A close below 5870, would confirm a weekly move lower. The next target down would be 5523.

Weekly – The weekly has a lower close.  Trade pressures remain down, but rising. Volumes remain bullish.  A close below 5894 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Short In the move down from 6090. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are now bearish.

The next target down is 5976. The expected oversold level rises to 6050.

The next target up is 6181, the prior high. The expected overbought level rises to 6172.

[2-21-25: Short from the 6090 entry. Set the SL at 6117.] [lower SL to 6047.]
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Market Summary:

Copper rallies to Median line resistance then begins retracement.  Gold’s rally retraces. Silver still can’t move beyond the upper median line.

Crude attempts to break out of down-trend but fails.  Natural Gas runs to the uptrend median line parallel.

The US 30yr Treasury Bond in a second move up off the 110 lows. The 10yr yields decline, now below 4.50%.

The US Dollar is a short again.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESH25

Monthly –Monthly bar closes higher than the prior week’s high. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of January as bullish.  The 6181 price remains the high. The next target up is 6633.  A close below 5870, would confirm a weekly move lower. The next target down would be 5523.

Weekly – The weekly has a higher close.  Trade pressures remain down, but rising. Volumes remain bullish.  A close below 5859 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat In the move up off the Monday down opening and recovery. Trade pressures are up and out of the neutral zone.  Volumes are now bullish.

The next target up is 6181, the prior high. The expected overbought level rises to 6172.

A close below 6090 would signal lower.The expected oversold level rises to 6050.

[2-21-25: Short from the 6090 entry. Set the SL at 6117.] [lower SL to 6068.]
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Market Summary:

Copper support held then big rally.  Gold continues rally. Silver breaks above the bull flag, but can’t move beyond the upper median line.

Crude support fails.  Natural Gas finds resisitance at the uptrend median line parallel.

The US 30yr Treasury Bond in a move up off the 110 lows. The 10yr yields now around 4.50%.

The US Dollar is a long again.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESH25

Monthly –Monthly bar contained within the Median line parallels from October 2022. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of January as bullish.  The 6181 price remains the high. The next target up is 6633.  A close below 5870, would confirm a weekly move lower. The next target down would be 5523.

Weekly – The weekly has another lower close.  Trade pressures remain down. Volumes remain bullish. This weeks close has formed another lower high. A close below 5867 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat. The previous short found support at the low 5900’s, then attempted a new move up which met the same resisitance at the downward trendline from the December 6181 high at 6067 on 1/31.
Trade pressures are down again to the neutral zone.  Volumes are now bullish.
Use this rally to short a move below 6030. The next target down is 5992.
A close above 6075 is also required to start a new move up.

The expected oversold level declines to 5977.
The expected overbought level declines to 6101.

[2-11-25: Fed Day Wednesday. Short at 6075 with the OB level at 6099. SL at 6123.]

[2-12-25: premarket drops on higher than expected inflation core numbers.  Lower SL to BE at 6075.]
[Rallied to 6075 in the late morning session. Flat.]

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Market Summary:

Copper consolidating at the 4.27 support.  Gold rallies more, still above the OB levels. Silver breaks above the downtrend line from October.

Crude now at support.  Natural Gas breaks below the uptrend parallel.

The US 30yr Treasury Bond in a weak move up off lows. The 10yr yields still holding around the 4.60%.

The US Dollar is a long.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESH25

Monthly –Monthly bar contained within the Median line parallels from October 2022. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of January as bullish.  The 6181 price remains the high. The next target up is 6633.  A close below 5870, would confirm a weekly move lower. The next target down would be 5523.

Weekly – The weekly has a lower close.  Trade pressures remain down. Volumes remain bullish. This weeks close has formed a “spinning top”, a sign of indecision, and a lower high. A close below 5845 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Short. Failed move up has moved down below the trendline from the December 6181 high at 6067 on 1/31, the close below 6094 has signaled lower. Trade pressures are now down.  Volumes are now bearish.
Look for a rally above 6100 to short as price moves back down thru 6094. The next target down is 5932.
A close above 6094 is also required to start a new move up.

The expected oversold level rises to 5980.
The expected overbought level rises to 6159.

[2-2-25: Sunday Nite session. Gapped lower to 5941. Wait for a retracement.]

[2-4-25: Closed the gap caused by the Monday open down to the oversold level.]