Market Summary:

Copper rallied to OB.  Gold showing lower in a bear flag. Silver moves sharply higher.

Crude grinding higher.  Natural Gas now moving sideways in a wide range – choppy.

The US 30yr Treasury long stopped out. The 10yr yields remain in the 4.50’s.

The US Dollar is basing near two year lows.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESM25

Monthly –Monthly bar continues the move up past prior month high. Trade pressures remain in the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of May as neutral; on lower volumes.  The 6233 price remains the adjusted high. The next target up remains 6196. A close below 5802 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar is above the October median line which is acting as support for now.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish but declining.  The next target up is 6197.  A close below 5694 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Long.  In the new move up from 5972 on 6/6. Trade pressures are up. Volumes finished the week as bullish.

The next target up is 6189 . The expected overbought level rises to 6025.

A close below 5770 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 5806.

[6-7-25: Set the SL at 5886.]

[6-9-25: Raise the SL to 5979.]

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Market Summary:

Copper is retracing the move up to resistance.  Gold showing successive lower highs. Silver in second bull flag.

Crudebreaks out of bullflag once again.  Natural Gas now short.

The US 30yr Treasury is a new long. The 10yr yields return to the 4.50’s.

The US Dollar is at support.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESM25

Monthly –Monthly bar closes well above the prior month high. Trade pressures remain in the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of May as neutral; on lower volumes.  The 6233 price remains the adjusted high. The next target up remains 6196. A close below 5770 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar is above the October median line which is acting as support for now.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish.  The next target up is 6197.  A close below 5677 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat.  In the retracement move down and touched the 61% target of 5861 on 5/30, which could act as support. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes again choppy and finished the week as bearish.

The next target down is 5771. The expected oversold level rises to 5760.

A close above 5972 would signal higher. The expected overbought level rises to 6013.

[6-6-25: New Long entry at 5972. SL is 5929.]

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Market Summary:

Copper had sharp rally to resisitance.  Gold rallies to the April trendline. Silver breaks out of bull flag.

Crudebreaks out of bullflag.  Natural Gas remains in the pullback.

The US 30yr Treasury is again lower. The 10yr yields rise to the 4.50’s.

The US Dollar is a short.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESM25

Monthly –Monthly bar closes off the rally highs. Trade pressures remain in the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of April as bullish.  The 6233 price remains the adjusted high. The next target up is 6196. A close below 5754 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar is above the October median line, but retracing.  Trade pressures rising to the neutral zone. Volumes remain bullish.  The next target up is 6200. A close below 5662 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Long.  In the move up from 5855 on 5/26. Trade pressures are down but rising, but declining. Volumes choppy but finished the week as bullish.

A close above 5855 signaled higher. The next target up is 5976. The expected overbought level rises to 6001.

A close below 5857 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 5702.

[5-26-25: Stopped out in the Memorial Day trading at 5849. Now a long trade after the bull flag breakout on the 120 min chart at 5855.]

[5-27-25: Set the SL at the BE, 5855.][Raise the SL to 5902.]

[5-28-25: Rasie the SL to 5912.]

[5-29-25: %912 stop triggers sale.]

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Market Summary:

Copper holding above the 200 day MA.  Gold crashes. Silver is still consolidating at the 200 day MA.

Crude meets resisitance, retraces.  Natural Gas pulls back.

The US 30yr Treasury is lower, short covering. The 10yr yields rise to the 4.40’s.

The US Dollar is a long.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESM25

Monthly –Monthly bar continues to rally. closing well above the prior month high. Trade pressures remain in the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of April as bullish.  The 6283 price remains the adjusted high. The next target up is 6196. A close below 5769 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar moves higher and now breaks above the October median line.  Trade pressures remain down, but rising. Volumes are bullish.  The next target up is 6407. A close below 5646 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Long.  In a break out move up from 5815 on 5/12. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 6051, with resistance at 5991. The expected overbought level rises to 5998.

A close below 5909 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 5609.

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Market Summary:

Copper moving down with the equity markets.  Gold forms a lower high. Silver is consolidating at the 200 day MA.

Crude is a long, OB.  Natural Gas is a long, also OB.

The US 30yr Treasury is lower, needs a breakout. The 10yr yields down to the 4.30’s.

The US Dollar is at a long entry.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESM25

Monthly –Monthly bar continues to rally. closes above the prior month high. Trade pressures remain in the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of April as bullish.  The 6283 price remains the adjusted high. The next target up is 5935. A close below 5586 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar moves higher and again touches the October median line.  Trade pressures remain down, turning up. Volumes are bullish.  The next target up is 5911. A close below 5410 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Long. Flat; stopped out of the 5319 long trade on 5/7.  Trade pressures are up; turning down.  Volumes are bearish.

The next target up remains 5761, but near the OB levels. The expected overbought level rises to 5724.

A close below 5630 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 5466.

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Market Summary:

Copper moving down.  Gold is basing. Silver is retracing the move up.

Crude is a short.  Natural Gas is a long.

The US 30yr Treasury is retracing the recent move up. The 10yr yields down to the 4.20’s.

The US Dollar is finding some support and near a long entry.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESM25

Monthly –Monthly bar continues to rally. now back above 5700. 4832 was the low of the sell-off. Trade pressures are still in the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of April as bullish.  The 6283 price remains the adjusted high. The close above 5352 confirmed the weekly move higher.

Weekly – The weekly bar moves higher and touches the October median line.  Trade pressures remain down, turning up. Volumes are bullish.  The nest target up is 5911. A close below 5394 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Long. In the new move up from 5319 on 4/23.  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain bullish.

The next target up is 5761. Thru the resistance at 5615. The expected overbought level rises to 5711.

A close below 5546 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 5405.

[4-26-25: Set the SL at 5468.]

[5-2-25: Raise the SL to 5546.]

[5-7-25: Raise the SL to 5600.] [5-7-25: stopped out at 5600.]

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Market Summary:

Copper took profits.  Gold a short. Silver near overbought.

Crude is a long.  Natural Gas at support and near a long entry.

The US 30yr Treasury is a long. The 10yr yields down to the 4.20’s.

The US Dollar is finding some support.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESM25

Monthly –Monthly bar crashes below 4900 and then rallies back above 5500. Trade pressures are in the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of March as bearish.  The 6283 price is the adjusted high. The 4917 downside target was touched. The close above 5352 confirms the weekly move higher.

Weekly – The weekly bar moves higher and closes above the 2/21 downtrend line.  Trade pressures remain down. Volumes remain neutral.  The close above 5268 confirms the daily move higher.

Daily – Long. after a 5 day retracement, a new breakout at 5319 on 4/23.  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 5634. Resistance at 5615. The expected overbought level rises to 5524.

A close below 5375 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 5146.

[4-26-25: Set the SL at 5468.]

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Market Summary:

Copper has triggered a long entry.  Gold at all time highs. Silver at the new long entry.

Crude near a long entry  Natural Gasis a short.

The US 30yr Treasury, unusually, sells off in a down market. The 10yr yields rise above 4.00%.

The US Dollar crashes below 100.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESM25

Monthly –Monthly bar crashes below 4900 and then rallies back above 5000. Trade pressures are in the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of March as bearish.  The 6233 price remains the adjusted high. The 4917 target is met. A close above 55352 would confirm any weekly move higher.

Weekly – The weekly bar gaps lower then reverses higher.  Trade pressures remain down. Volumes are now neutral.  Reached the 4832, the October 2024 low. The close above 5244 confirms the daily move higher.

Daily – Long. Closed above the long entry price of 5138 in a powerful bear market rally. Trade pressures remain down, but rising.  Volumes are neutral (short covering). Resistance is at 5528.

A close above 5528 would signal higher; then 5761.  The expected overbought level declines to 5524.

A close below 5192 would signal lower. The expected oversold level declines to 4835.

[ The VIX, a measure of volatility (hedging), is extremely high, rising to 60 at one point. These levels increase the trading risks. Consider standing aside until the volatility declines.]

[Set the SL at 5313.]

[4-14-25: Raise SL to 5372]

[4-16-25: Stopped out for a gain at 5372.]

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Market Summary:

Copper Short crashed to the confluence of the 200 day MA and the August 2024 lower median line.  Gold “take profits” was timely as a $100 drop ensues. Silver drops more than $4.

Crude drops $7.  Natural Gas, Long fails.

The US 30yr Treasury breaks out with recession fears. The 10yr yields now around 4.00%.

The US Dollar rallies with the tariffs and the commodities down.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESM25

Monthly –Monthly bar breaks below the lower median line from 10/23. Trade pressures drop into the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of March as bearish.  The 6233 price remains the adjusted high. The next target down is 4917. A close above 5594 would confirm any weekly move higher.

Weekly – The weekly bar gaps lower.  Trade pressures remain down. Volumes remain bearish.  Blew thru the 5324 downside target. The next target down is 5056, then could target the October 2024 low. A close above 5486 would confirm any daily move higher.

Daily – Flat. The week began working higher thinking there would be some measured tariff response. Nope.  Dropped quickly from 5682 thru the Measured move at 5180. Trade pressures remain down.  Volumes remain bearish.

The next target down is 4773. The expected oversold level declines to 5313.

A close above 5729 would signal higher; then 5793.  The expected overbought level declines to 5670.

[ A short term rally could start with a close above 5138 setting 5347 as the upside target; then likely more downside]

A new equity market move up requires “fuel”; new money. That new money needs to see acceleration in earnings and margin expansion. Can that senario develop with oppresive tariffs/taxes? No.

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