Market Summary:

Copper took profits.  Gold a short. Silver near overbought.

Crude is a long.  Natural Gas at support and near a long entry.

The US 30yr Treasury is a long. The 10yr yields down to the 4.20’s.

The US Dollar is finding some support.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESM25

Monthly –Monthly bar crashes below 4900 and then rallies back above 5500. Trade pressures are in the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of March as bearish.  The 6283 price is the adjusted high. The 4917 downside target was touched. The close above 5352 confirms the weekly move higher.

Weekly – The weekly bar moves higher and closes above the 2/21 downtrend line.  Trade pressures remain down. Volumes remain neutral.  The close above 5268 confirms the daily move higher.

Daily – Long. after a 5 day retracement, a new breakout at 5319 on 4/23.  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 5634. Resistance at 5615. The expected overbought level rises to 5524.

A close below 5375 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 5146.

[4-26-25: Set the SL at 5468.]

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Market Summary:

Copper has triggered a long entry.  Gold at all time highs. Silver at the new long entry.

Crude near a long entry  Natural Gasis a short.

The US 30yr Treasury, unusually, sells off in a down market. The 10yr yields rise above 4.00%.

The US Dollar crashes below 100.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESM25

Monthly –Monthly bar crashes below 4900 and then rallies back above 5000. Trade pressures are in the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of March as bearish.  The 6233 price remains the adjusted high. The 4917 target is met. A close above 55352 would confirm any weekly move higher.

Weekly – The weekly bar gaps lower then reverses higher.  Trade pressures remain down. Volumes are now neutral.  Reached the 4832, the October 2024 low. The close above 5244 confirms the daily move higher.

Daily – Long. Closed above the long entry price of 5138 in a powerful bear market rally. Trade pressures remain down, but rising.  Volumes are neutral (short covering). Resistance is at 5528.

A close above 5528 would signal higher; then 5761.  The expected overbought level declines to 5524.

A close below 5192 would signal lower. The expected oversold level declines to 4835.

[ The VIX, a measure of volatility (hedging), is extremely high, rising to 60 at one point. These levels increase the trading risks. Consider standing aside until the volatility declines.]

[Set the SL at 5313.]

[4-14-25: Raise SL to 5372]

[4-16-25: Stopped out for a gain at 5372.]

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Market Summary:

Copper Short crashed to the confluence of the 200 day MA and the August 2024 lower median line.  Gold “take profits” was timely as a $100 drop ensues. Silver drops more than $4.

Crude drops $7.  Natural Gas, Long fails.

The US 30yr Treasury breaks out with recession fears. The 10yr yields now around 4.00%.

The US Dollar rallies with the tariffs and the commodities down.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESM25

Monthly –Monthly bar breaks below the lower median line from 10/23. Trade pressures drop into the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of March as bearish.  The 6233 price remains the adjusted high. The next target down is 4917. A close above 5594 would confirm any weekly move higher.

Weekly – The weekly bar gaps lower.  Trade pressures remain down. Volumes remain bearish.  Blew thru the 5324 downside target. The next target down is 5056, then could target the October 2024 low. A close above 5486 would confirm any daily move higher.

Daily – Flat. The week began working higher thinking there would be some measured tariff response. Nope.  Dropped quickly from 5682 thru the Measured move at 5180. Trade pressures remain down.  Volumes remain bearish.

The next target down is 4773. The expected oversold level declines to 5313.

A close above 5729 would signal higher; then 5793.  The expected overbought level declines to 5670.

[ A short term rally could start with a close above 5138 setting 5347 as the upside target; then likely more downside]

A new equity market move up requires “fuel”; new money. That new money needs to see acceleration in earnings and margin expansion. Can that senario develop with oppresive tariffs/taxes? No.

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Market Summary:

Copper Short after new contract highs.  Gold to ATH’s once again; take profits. Silver short, support at 32.43.

Crude consolidating at the 200 day MA.  Natural Gas, Long with a breakout of the small bull flag.

The US 30yr Treasury up to resistance, watch for breakout. The 10yr yields consolidating around 4.25%.

The US Dollar in a month long base now attempting a rally.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESM25

Monthly –Monthly bar closes continues to test the lower median line from 10/23. Trade pressures remain up, but declining. Volumes closed the month of February as bullish, March will close with bearish volume.  The 6233 price remains the adjusted high. The next target down is 5324. A close above 6065 would confirm any weekly move higher.

Weekly – The weekly bar lower than prior close.  Trade pressures remain down. Volumes are now bearish.  The next target down is 5324. A close above 5728 would confirm any daily move higher.

Daily – Flat. Closed with a sharp move down.  At the 5623 downside target which is a backtest of the 3/24 breakout level. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 5566. The expected oversold level rises to 5566.

A close above 5729 would signal higher; then 5793.  The expected overbought level rises to 5795.

(Still looking for a bear market rally, usually volatile and short lived. Watch the 5623 level for signs of support.)

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Market Summary:

Copper retracing from new contract highs.  Gold to ATH’s, now retracing. Silver retracing, support at 32.43.

Crude off the lows in a bear flag.  Natural Gas in a move down toward mid three’s.

The US 30yr Treasury in consolidation. The 10yr yields consolidating around 4.25%.

The US Dollar in a month long base with Euro currencies stronger.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESM25

Monthly –Monthly bar closes holds at the lower median line from 10/23. Trade pressures remain up, but declining. Volumes closed the month of February as bullish.  The 6181 price remains the high. The close below 5870 did confirm a weekly move lower. The next target down is 5419. A close above 6069 would confirm any weekly move higher.

Weekly – The weekly forms a bullish bar.  Trade pressures remain down. Volumes are bullish.  The close below 5911 confirmed the daily move lower.  The next target down is 5324. A close above 5875 would confirm any daily move higher.

Daily – Flat. At the 5537 downside target. Trade pressures are just above the neutral zone.  Volumes are bullish.

The next target down is 5606. The expected oversold level rises to 5501.

A close above 5744 would signal higher. The expected overbought level declines to 5740.

(Look for a bear market rally, usually volatile and short lived.)

[3-24-25: Long @ 5744. Raise the SL to 5795.]

[3-25-25: Pre-market AM. raise SL to 5816.] [& Stopped out in the opening hour.]

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Market Summary:

Copper pulls back and rallies again to contract highs.  Gold lower highs tutn into a bull flag and then a break out to ATH’s. Silver mirrors gold.

Crude fails at the September trendline support, holding just below.  Natural Gas, a second rally and a second retracement which has now broken the trend line down.

The US 30yr Treasury pulls back to Feb trendline support. The 10yr yields consolidating around 4.30%.

The US Dollar is now Flat, and at downside targets.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESH25

Monthly –Monthly bar closes well below the prior week’s range. Trade pressures remain up, but declining. Volumes closed the month of February as bullish.  The 6181 price remains the high. The close below 5870 did confirm a weekly move lower. The next target down is still 5523. A close above 6082 would confirm any weekly move higher.

Weekly – The weekly has yet another lower close.  Trade pressures remain down. Volumes remain bearish.  The close below 5911 confirmed the daily move lower. The first target down of 5619 is met. The next target down is 5272. A close above 5883 would confirm any daily move higher.

Daily – Flat. At the 5564 downside target. Trade pressures remain down but a smal rise is developing.  Volumes are now neutral.

The next target down is 5631. The expected oversold level declines to 5456.

A close above 5724 would signal higher. The expected overbought level declines to 5850.

Some basing is likely here and could generate some short covering, which would be a possible re-shorting opportunity.
(Perhaps the market is seeing some tariff relief? But even that won’t turn the GDP numbers higher soon.)

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Market Summary:

Copper rallies to resisitance.  Gold rallies, but to lower highs. Silver rallies from its selloff, also to lower highs.

Crude fails at the September trendline support.  Natural Gas breaks out of retracement to new highs.

The US 30yr Treasury Bond at the 119 upside target. The 10yr yields consolidating.

The US Dollar is now a short, whipping about with every pronouncement.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESH25

Monthly –Monthly bar closes well below the prior week’s range. Trade pressures remain up but declining. Volumes closed the month of February as bullish.  The 6181 price remains the high. The close below 5870 did confirm a weekly move lower. The next target down is be 5523.

Weekly – The weekly has another lower close.  Trade pressures remain down. Volumes increase again but bearish now.  The close below 5911 confirms the daily move lower. The next target down is 5619.

Daily – Flat. Down from the 3/3 trendline backtest at 5972. Trade pressures remain down.  Volumes are now bullish.

The next target down is 5631. The expected oversold level declines to 5695.

A close above 5839 would signal higher. The expected overbought level declines to 6024.

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Market Summary:

Copper basing at the 4.55 target.  Gold breaks down from the consolidation channel. Silver breaks the trend into a hard selloff.

Crude moves up off the September trendline support.  Natural Gas remains in retracement.

The US 30yr Treasury Bond in a second move up off the 110 lows to 118; rollover. The 10yr yields decline, now below 4.25%.

The US Dollar is now a long.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESH25

Monthly –Monthly bar closes at the low end of the prior week’s range. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of February as bullish.  The 6181 price remains the high. The next target up is 6633.  A close below 5870, would confirm a weekly move lower. The next target down would be 5523.

Weekly – The weekly has another lower close.  Trade pressures remain down. Volumes increase but remain bullish.  A close below 5905 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Long; Long from 5905 in the PM friday the 28th.  Stopped out of the move down from 6090 at 6047. Trade pressures remain down.  Volumes are now bullish.

The next target up is 5990. The expected overbought level declines to 6154.

The next target down is 5781. The expected oversold level declines to 5824.

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Market Summary:

Copper retracement at the 4.55 target.  Goldin a consolidation channel. Silver consolidating after a move down..

Crude testing lower consoldation channel.  Natural Gas in retracement.

The US 30yr Treasury Bond in a second move up off the 110 lows. The 10yr yields decline, now below 4.50%.

The US Dollar remains a short.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESH25

Monthly –Monthly bar closes inside the prior week’s range. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of January as bullish.  The 6181 price remains the high. The next target up is 6633.  A close below 5870, would confirm a weekly move lower. The next target down would be 5523.

Weekly – The weekly has a lower close.  Trade pressures remain down, but rising. Volumes remain bullish.  A close below 5894 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Short In the move down from 6090. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are now bearish.

The next target down is 5976. The expected oversold level rises to 6050.

The next target up is 6181, the prior high. The expected overbought level rises to 6172.

[2-21-25: Short from the 6090 entry. Set the SL at 6117.] [lower SL to 6047.]
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