Copper is down but looking for a reason to go higher.

Gold is looking for a bottom as well.

The dollar is in a short trade.

The 30yr T-Bond has reached it’s target and the trade is flat.

Crude (WTI) is in a long trade with targets a few dollars higher.

Nat Gas is confusing.

The summer trade is always going to be event driven. So Greece is still a headline and makes for some action in the currencies and maybe the crude oil contracts as well.  The FED news with any indication that the interest rates might change will create a nice move in the long bond.

S&P Futures_ [Sep contract changes targets.]

Monthly – Trade pressures remain up. Volume is bullish. the next target up is 2182.

Weekly – Trade pressures are down. Volume has changed from neutral to bullish. The next target up is 2246.

Daily – Trade pressures are up. Volume has changed from bullish to bearish. The downward pressures of time end the 19th of June.

Price has bounced each time at the 80 day moving average and Friday closed just on top of that same average.  The 2087 price seems to be a pivot. While the market can break either way from here, the bias seems to be up.

[Monday morning open is down and below the 80 day. A test of last week’s lows is in order. The next target down is 2049 and the May lows.]

The Euro started the week at 1.09 ran up to 1.14 and back down to 1.11 on fear and greed. (Each penny move in the CME futures contract is worth US$1000.)

The Crude oil contract is still in the long trade.

The 30yr Bonds have reversed into a short trade.

Copper seems to have completed its move down.

Gold and Silver are pointing lower.

Continued indecision about the outcome of the Greek financial situation, coupled with the intransigence of the Germans raises nationalistic feeling among the Europeans.  Good News on the US employment front caused the US markets to worry anew about the next interest rate increase by the FED.

We all know that it will come soon.  Just follow the money.

S&P 500 Futures-

Monthly – Trade pressures are up with a slight decline. Volume closed the month bullish. the next target up is 2189.

Weekly – Trade pressures are down. Volume has been neutral for the last two weeks. the next target up is 2254. A trade below 2064 signals lower.

Daily – The long trade was stopped out at 2096 for an 18 pt gain. The break and close below the 25×5 moving average triggered the 2071 downside target. The 80 day moving average is now acting as support.

No trade yet. Go to the hourly time frame for a new trade trigger.

The US Dollar remains in the retracement up.

The 30yr T-Bonds are in a long retracement trade.

Copper and Gold have turned down.

WTI Crude is in the long trade. Watch for the nearby profit targets.

The Three larger economic regions are mixed. China seems soft. Europe is recovering, but again the Grecian monetary issues still create confusion. The US GDP is showing some weakness which causes the “rate raise” hysteresis in the markets.

S&P 500 Futures_ Grinding to higher targets.

Monthly – Trade pressures are up. Monthly volume close bullish. the next target up is 2189.

Weekly – Trade pressures are up but turning down. next target up is 2254. Volume has changed from bullish to neutral.

Daily – The long trade from 2078 has touched the 2096 stop but did not close below. Use some discretion here. Next target up is 2143. Trade pressures have turned down. Volume has changed from bullish to bearish.

Intraday time frames have a short cycle short trade with a target of 2095.

The daily is now sitting on the 25 moving average. A break down thru this moving average would set up a 2071 downside target.

The US dollar is in a retracement up from its previous move down.

The Metals are affected by the dollar and are in a retracement down from resistance levels identified last week.

Oil and gas has also retreated from similar resistance levels.

the 30yr T-Bond has entered a retracement long trade.

The market feels “heavy”; worrying about when the FED might raise the interest rates by 1/4 of a percent. The consumer seems to be saving instead of spending. The 2nd qtr GDP conversation is trending to a lower estimate.  The Europeans seem to be on course to forcing a Greek exit from the Euro. The Euro futures run up and down on every news conference from the ECB.

S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – Trade pressures are up. Volume remains bullish. 2189 is the next target up.

Weekly – Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish. The next target up is 2254.

Daily – In the long trade from the 2096 entry price with a stop at 2078. The next target up is 2143 and 2159. Trade pressures are up. Volume is neutral. Upper time frame volume is confirming bullish.

Raise stops to 2096.

The Metals copper, gold and silver are all in long trades.

Both Crude and Nat gas are in long trades.

The Dollar has met most of it’s targets but still in a down move.

the 30yr T-Bond is turning up, showing a new long entry.

The rail car loadings are slowing. The private sector loan demand is showing signs of slowing. The US long bond rates are rising. But GDP measures suggest a slowing economy. The European economy is showing signs of recovery, but Greek issues, both financial and political, dampen the prospects.

The S&P 500 futures are very choppy reflecting these various pressures.

Monthly – new highs. The next target up is 2189. Trade pressures are up. Volume remains bullish.

Weekly – The channel formed from late February to now is still controlling. Price is now at the upper boundary. The next target up is 2254. Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish now for six weeks.

Daily – The trade is long from the close above 2096 on Friday previous (which would have been entered on Monday) and met the first target of 2110 last Friday. The next target up is 2137.

Move stops to 2078.

The US dollar has retraced to expected levels.

The Euro has moved up to it’s targets.

Precious metals are stalled.

Industrial metals (Copper) are moving up, but at targets now.

T-Bonds have completed a move down and now appear to be ready for a move up.

Oil has completed a move up and is now in retracement.

Nat Gas has started a move up.

The China economy, the Euro-zone, the US economy directions are the macro economic  pressures. The US seems to be ahead of the other two. The Euro-zone seems to be improving while China appears to be in need of new stimulus.  The Greek economy is still in the news and could push the Euro currency around this weekend.

The S&P 500 futures_

Monthly – Next target up is 2189. Trade pressures are still up. Volume is bullish.

Weekly – Testing the upside channel. Next target up is 2254. Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish.

Daily – Trade is Flat. The 80 day has acted as support again this last week. Now at the upside of the 2110-2040 channel. Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish.

Market pundits are musing about a breakout to new highs.  There is long entry signal at 2096 but at the channel boundary – needs to be broken first.

Copper has rallied to upside target with some more to go.

Gold and Silver are in the move down.

Oil continues to rally and Natural Gas may be starting a new move up.

The dollar has traded down to its target but may be ready to signal a new move up.

T-Bonds are still in the move down.

The European negotiations with Greece occupied the attentions of the markets. The Euro moved up smartly to break the 1.1200 level. The Chinese banks are in stimulus mode; but the industrial metals are behaving as though the Chinese economy is in growth mode.

S&P 500_

Monthly – 2189 is the upside target. Trade pressure are positive . Volume is bullish.

Weekly – the upside target is 2254. Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish. The weekly remains in the 2110-2040 channel.

Daily – Price has tested the 80 day moving average for four months. This support level is currently 2065. The trade is flat after getting stopped out at the 2100 level.. Last weeks run up was stopped at the upper bound of the 2040-2100 channel.

Now the trade pressures are down. Volume has turned neutral after the prior weeks bearish volumes. The bias remains down. A close below 2093 is a short trigger, but the volatility is greater than the stop, so pass on that entry. (Could go down to a shorter time frame and see if there is a trade there.)

The S&P 500 pivot high of 2110.25 set on February 25th, was tested on 3/23 at 2107 and now again this last Friday with a 2111.75 close.
A Triple Top?
Earning are coming in with some gains in the technology sector. Energy was bought for a few days but now, no follow thru. The financials were spotty and moved up to old pivots but are not showing strength. The market probably needs these larger sectors of finance and energy to move to be able to continue any sustained move up.

The Metals are trending down. Gold has started a new short trade.
Oil is in a long trade, but meeting resistance.
Nat Gas continues lower.
The Dollar is trending lower. The Euro continues to grind higher in the face of the Greek issues.
The 30yr T-Bond is in a short trade.

S&P 500_ futures

Monthly – Trade pressures remain up Volume is bullish. The next target up is 2189.

Weekly – Still in the channel between the 2110.25 pivot high and the short entry level of 2040. At the upper bound now with a 2111.75 close. Trade pressures remain up. Volume is bullish, but 3 million contracts traded are at half the level of last week.

Daily – The long cycle was short from the 2062 entry price. The Stop is the 2110.25 pivot, which was met with Fridays close. The trade is Flat.
Trade pressures have turned positive with this Friday close. Volume has been bullish for three days.

Expect consolidation and wait for the next entry – long or short.

Market getting pushed around buy the Dollar which is affected by the perception of the US economy weakening. The Greek Debt negotiations increase worries about the Euro zone and therefore the global economy. China’s stock market is a rocket, but the the China GDP doesn’t seem to validate the move.

The Dollar has started a move down.
The 30yr T-Bond is searching for direction.
Crude is in a move up.
Copper is trending sideways in channel.
Gold is also in a channel.

The Euro futures are up in the face of a possible Greek exit.

S&P 500_

Monthly – Trade pressures remain up. Next target up is 2189. Volume is light and decreasing.

Weekly – Trade pressures are up. Volume bullish. Next target up is 2254.

Daily – The upper channel 2100 boundary stopped the short cycle retracement move up.

The trade is short from the March short entry of 2062. The next target down is 1985, which is also the 200 Day moving average.

Trade pressures are down. Volume is now bearish changing from the prior week’s bullish. The 80 Day moving average has been support for this year. A break below would signal a change in momentum.

Would need a break above the 2100 to signal higher for the S&P 500 futures.