Market Pressures_

Copper is in move up.

Gold and silver are undecided.

Crude oil is long. Natural Gas is flat.

30yr T-Bonds are in a move down.

And, the US Dollar is attempting a new move up.

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S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – The August month closed in the red, but still above the 1907 confirmation of a further move down. Trade pressures are down. Volume closed bullish. 2182 is the next target up.

Weekly – The 1832 target down was met, now in consolidation looking for the next move. The next target down is 1650.

Daily – Large daily ranges and the lighter holiday volumes have made trading difficult in the last week of August. Trade pressures are neutral. Volume closed bearishly.

A retest of the 1832 lows seems likely. China’s market action may be the stimulus.

Market Pressures_

Copper is in a new move up.

Gold and silver are down.

Crude Oil is in a new move up. Nat Gas remains directionless.

The 30yr T-Bonds is in a new move down.

The US dollar is trying to rally but volume is drying up.

This trading week is not well attended with the last of the summer holidays affecting trading volumes. Wait for your entries.

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S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – Trade pressures remain up but are approaching neutral. Volume closed bullish the July month end. The next target up is 2182. The confirmation of a move down is a close below 1907.

Weekly – In the move down after the 2056 short confirmation. The first target of 1832 was reached. Now neutral volume reflects the retracement off that 1832 target. The next target down is 1650.

Daily –  The trade Flat. A new long attempt was stopped out at the 1873 long entry. Volatility range is higher than the stops. Trade pressures are down but ready to cross over to the positive. Volume is bullish, but should be light this week.

Need a pullback and a renewed push upward to lower risk in a new long entry.

A close below 1923 would signal a retest of the lows.

(It will be better to watch the commodities for a trade.)

 

Market pressures_

Precious metals appeared to rally but have turned back down.

Copper has fallen thru multiple downside targets reflecting the China worries.

Crude oil continues the slide into the 30’s.

Nat Gas has no direction.

The 30 YR T-Bonds are a safe haven and are rising.

The US dollar has fallen to the expected targets.

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S&P 500 Futures_ Monday 8/24/15 AM

The Market continues the melt down.

Monthly – The monthly has dropped thru the Short confirmation signal. will need to close below 1907 at the end of the month. Trade pressures have dropped to neutral. Volume is still bullish. next target down is 1552.

Weekly – The 2056 weekly short confirmation that was tested so many times has now given way. Touched the 1832 target this Monday AM which is also the Oct’14 lows. Next weekly target down is 1650. Trade pressures are down. Volume is bearish.

Daily – Trade is short from the 2079 entry price. All daily target were exceeded this Monday morning as the market traded down thru the Dec’14 lows to the weekly target of 1832.

Now Long. A short covering move off the 1831 low has triggered a long entry at 1873. The next target up is 1942.

Stops at the lows. Move Stops to break-even as soon as possible. This will be a volatile week.

[8/24, am Move stops to 1873, fast moving market!] [Pm Futures retreat after the close. Stopped out at 1873}

Market pressures__

Metals – Copper is nearing the downside targets. Gold and silver are signaling a new long trade.

Crude trade has reached the short targets as bullish volume comes in late in the week.

The dollar DX is signaling some weakness which may help the equity market.

The 30 YR Treasuries are in a pullback after a good run up in price.

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S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – The July month closed up. The next target up is 2162. Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish.

Weekly – Trade pressures are down. Price keeps bouncing down to test the 2056 short confirmation level. The next target up is 2246. Volume is bullish.

Daily – Flat. No trade. Trade pressures are up. Volume has changed from neutral to bullish.

A new long entry was signaled at 2068 during the sharp down day and the late afternoon recovery. Missed that trade, so wait to see if a new entry is signaled.

A close below 2079 could signal a new short position.

[8/19/15: short entry triggered. 8/20/15: trading below the 200 day and the weekly short confirmation levels. next target down is 2024.]

 

 

Market Pressures __

Copper continues down.

Gold and silver are showing some small strength.

Crude Oil (WTI) is still in its downtrend, but near some targets.

The US dollar is still in bullish mode but taking a pause.

The US Long Bonds are in a strong up-move in price, but targets are also nearby.

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S&P 500 Futures__

Monthly – The July Month Closed Up. Trade pressure are still up. Volume changed to bullish from neutral. The next target up is 2182.

Weekly – 2056 remains the short confirmation level. Trade pressures are down. Volume is bullish, but declining. The next target up is 2246.

Daily –  The Trade is short from the 8/3 2092 entry price. The move down has allowed us to move the stops to the entry price. Two cycle targets are below –  the longer cycle 2073 and the short cycle target of 2066. The 200 day moving average is 2057 and the pressures make it seem likely to test that 2057 level.

Trade pressures are down. Volume closed bearish on both Thurs and Friday of last week.

August is typically low volume trading, so be ready to take profits, or move stops, at these levels.

[Update: Tuesday 8/11/15: The Monday announcement of Buffet’s purchase of Precision Cast Parts lifted the market past the the 2092 stop. The ES trade is now flat. Then on Tuesday the news of China’s devaluation of the Yuan reversed the US markets. Still no Trade.]

Pressures on the Market.

Metals are in their continuing downtrend. Copper is our proxy for the Chinese developing economy. Gold and silver are in similar downtrends.

The oil trade is still short. Nat Gas is flat.

The DX long trade was stopped out.

The 30yr T-Bonds remain in a long trade with price rising and yields declining.

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S&P 500 Futures [Sept ’15 contract]

Monthly – The July month closed in the green. Trade pressures are up. Volume changed back to bullish from neutral. The next target up is 2182.

Weekly – The 2056 level remains the short confirmation level. This level has been tested seven times. Trade pressures are flat. Volume is bullish. The next target up is 2246.

Daily – Stopped out of the short trade from 2106 at that same 2106 entry price for no gain or loss. Trade pressures are down. Volume has turned bearish.

2092 is the entry for a new short trade. The next target down is 2066.

Stops at 2109. [Update 8/6/2015: Price now 2073, move stops to break-even at the entry price of 2092.]

The Dollar index is higher but has nearby resistance.

The 30yr TBonds have triggered a new long trade.

Oil continues lower, the short trade is working nicely.

The metals are lower.

S&P 500 Futures_________

Monthly – End of June Trade pressures remained up. Volume turned neutral. Upside target is 2189.

Weekly – Trade pressures are up slightly. Volume is bullish. The upside targets are 2246 and 2247. The weekly short confirmation of 2056 was tested but not closed below.

Daily – The long trade from 2081 was stopped out at 2099 resulting in an 18 pt profit per contract (approx $900 per contract.) A new short trade was triggered at 2106. The first target down of 2072 was reached intraday. The next target down is 2038.

Move stops to the entry price of 2106.

A close above 2091 will signal higher.

The US dollar (DX) is in a move up thru it’s first target.

The metals futures are showing downward pressures.

Crude Oil is pressing down as well. Natural gas is sideways but there are some indications of new upward pressures.

The 30yr T-Bond is consolidating and may be ready for a new move up.

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S&P 500 Futures__  Sept contract.

Monthly – Trade pressures are up. Volume Closed June neutral. The next target up is 2182.

Weekly – The short confirmation was tested many times but never closed below. Trade pressures have returned to neutral. Volume is bullish.

Daily – The big move up this last week took price to the June 2015 highs. The trade is still long from the 2081 long entry. The next target up is 2145; but expect some resistance at this 2122 high pivot. Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish.

move stops to 2099.

China is reacting to their markets and the Copper futures seem to be ready for a move up.

Gold and Silver are flat to down.

Oil and Gas are mixed to down.

The dollar (DX) is up near the top of a recent channel and the 30yr T-Bonds are flat to down.

The Greeks are taking any deal right now. The Germans are pressing the advantage to the point of punishment. The ECB is taking sides when, in our view, its mandate is to protect their member banks and facilitate the money flows necessary for trade.  A long term negative for the Euro as a currency.  But in the short term there seems to be a shortage of Euro’s, possibly signaling higher.

China is trying to prop up their stock markets after their Govt sponsored newspaper Xinhua spent months exhorting the public to invest. Looks like a massive “pump and dump”.

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S&P Futures_ September contract.

Monthly – Upside target remains 2182. Trade pressures are up Volume remains neutral.

Weekly – still in the up-move with a 2246 target. Trade pressures are down but turning up today, Monday. Volume had a big bullish week last week.

The weekly short confirmation is 2058 which has been tested 4 times in recent weeks. A weekly close below that level would set up a 1944 downside target.

Daily – mid last week the 2061 short entry was triggered. The 200 day and the 2034 targets were met almost immediately for a 27 point profit (about $US1350 for one E-Mini contract).  The Sunday overnight trading is up thru the 2081 long entry seemingly based on the Eurozone approval of the Greek bailout. The next target up is 2145.

Stops are at the 2034 low; but trade pressures are neutral and Volume is bearish, so move to break-even as soon as the trade moves beyond the 25×5 moving average.

The precious metals are in consolidation after making moves down to respective targets.

Copper needs a higher close to trigger a new move up.  We view this metal as influenced by the Chinese economy.

Crude oil has stopped out the previous long trade. A trade below the 49 level could start a new move down.

The US$ dollar and the 30 yr T-Bond are responding to the Greek financial uncertainties and the prospect of a US interest rate increase.

The markets were uncertain approaching the long US 4th of July holiday weekend.

S&P Futures– [Sept’15 contract]

Monthly – The June month closed down. Trade pressures remain up. Volume has changed from bullish to neutral. This indicates distribution is occurring. The next target up remains 2182.

Weekly – The upside target is 2246. Trade pressures have turned down. and Volume has turned from bullish to bearish. A close below 2056 would confirm a new move down. The last time such a signal developed was Oct’14. Not there quite yet, but be alert.

Daily – The 2088 was a pivot that coincided with the 80 day moving average at 2081. This support broke down on Monday, June 29th, as the Greek announced that their Banks would close temporarily and depositors could only withdraw small amounts.  The markets are “event driven” at the moment.

The trade has been flat for two weeks as the volatility has exceeded any rational stops that would permit an entry. The 2056 longer term lower target and the May lows are current support, but the 200 day moving average at 2036 seems the most likely attraction.

Trade pressures are down. Volume is neutral.
A close above 2080 could signal a new long entry.
A close below 2061 could signal a new short entry.

[update 7/7/2015: the spike down on Monday was not tradeable. but today’s trade back down thru 2061 is the short entry. 2032 is the next target down at the 200 day.]