During the 2015 calendar year the South Ocean Management trade levels recorded 64 virtual trade setups.
Following the trade management described in the respective posts, 12 of those virtual trades would have resulted in losses and 14 would be stopped out at a break-even; a total of 26 trades with a loss or no gain.
38 gains from 64 trades. That should be a respectable win rate for any trader.
Market Pressures_
The Copper trade is flat looking for a new entry.
Gold and Silver are pulling back.
Crude is testing the lows again.
Natural Gas in a long trade, but very near a profit target.
The US 30 YR Treasury is in a short trade.
The US Dollar is pressing lower.
_____________________
S&P 500 Futures_
Monthly – The month tried to move above the years highs but could not succeed. The trade pressures closed in th neutral zone. The Volumes closed the month as bearish from the prior month’s neutral reading.
Weekly – In the sideways channel beginning in early November 2015 and closed in mid channel. Trade pressures are rising and neutral. Volumes remain bearish.
Daily – Flat. Still in the downtrend. Trade pressures have fallen back int the neutral zone. Volumes have changed from bullish to bearish in the last few days of the 2015 year.
The pressures due to time now have begun a new upward cycle.
2049 is a level that the market could pivot to long or short.
Wait for the volumes to return to begin 2016 trades.
Copper and Gold stopped out.
The only active trades are the Long Nat Gas and the Short 30yr US Treasury. Observe the new stops.
Market Pressures_
Copper still a long trade.
Silver and gold near long entries.
Crude is nearing a long trade. Nat Gas has triggered a long trade.
The 30yr US Treasury bond has triggered a short trade.
________________________
S&P Futures_ ESH16
Monthly – Has held near the 2100 highs despite the tax selling wave. Trade pressures are neutral and rising. The November volume close was neutral. 1896 remains as a short confirmation.
Weekly – In eight weeks of range bound trading has touched the 2086 new weekly long entry six of those weeks. Now beginning a move up from an oversold position. If that long entry can occur then the next profit target up is 2237. Trade pressures are down. Volumes changed to bearish during the three weeks before the Christmas holiday.
Daily – Flat. In the downtrend started in early November. The three day trade for 2012 was stopped out on Dec 23rd. The next profit target up is 2089 which is coincidentally the weekly confirmation for a long trade. The 25×5 is resistance here at 2051.
Trade pressures are up. Volumes changed from bearish to bullish late last week. downward time pressures end on Dec 30.
The ES trade is now long from the 2012 entry price.
Raise the stops to 1999.
Profit target is 2046, or (OCO) sell at market at noon on the 24th.
[12-23-2015 update: sold at 2046 profit target.]
Market Pressures_
Precious metals looking for a new long entry. Copper is in a long trade.
Both Crude and Nat Gas are in a long term downtrend. Looking for signs of stabilization.
The US 30yr Treasury bond is acting as a safe haven in this US stock market sell off. But still expecting lower bond prices.
The US dollar (DX) is suggesting lower prices.
_____________________
S&P 500 Futures
Monthly – Red month so far. trade pressures are neutral. Volumes are neutral. A close below 1896 will confirm a move down.
Weekly – trend has gone neutral with the holidays. The 1815 previously tested target lower is still active. Trade pressures are down. Volume has changed from bullish to bearish. Still need a close above 2087 to confirm any new move up.
Daily – Flat. Testing the 1985 lower target once again. The next target down is 1958 then 1916. Trade pressures staying in the neutral zone. Volume has changed to bearish from neutral and bullish.
If the Xmas rally is to arrive, a close above 2012 may be the start of one.
[12-21-2015 2012 long entry at 2012.]
[12-23-2015 2046 profit target met.]
Market Pressures_
Precious metals are still basing. Copper is a long trade.
Oil and Gas remain in the downtrend.
looking for a new short in the US 30 yr Treasury contract.
The US Dollar is showing lower.
______________________
S&P 500 Futures_ Now negative for the 2015 year.
Monthly – Trade pressures have risen to neutral. Volumes have been neutral for three successive months. Need a close below 1896 to trigger a confirmation of a short trade.
Weekly – Have been in a confirmed short since the close below 2039 in late August. The October rally never closed above the 2087 long confirmation level. Trade pressures have returned to the down. Volumes have changed this last week to bearish from bullish.
Daily – Flat. Monday closed below the 2074 short entry price and reached the 2032 first profit target in the next two days which should be taken, given the volatility. The next target down is 1989. Trade pressures are down. volumes are bearish.
Need a close above 2008 to trigger a new long trade.
[12-13-2015 update: Monday closes above 2008. Volumes change to bullish. Next target up is 2046. Stops at the 1983 lows.]
[12-16-2015 update: raise stops to 2035.]
[Flat. The spike down after the FEd announcement stopped out the trade at the 2035 stop then turned up to rally into the close of 2063.]
Market Pressures_
The Metals are indicating possible long entries.
Oil and gas remain in congestion at prior downside targets.
US 30yr Treasuries are signaling lower prices.
The US dollar (DX) has moved decisively lower.
_______________________
S&P 500 Futures_
Monthly – Still ready to ready to test the 2015 highs. The next target up is 2201. Trade pressures are up. November volumes closed at neutral once again.
Weekly – Once again ready to test the new long entry price of 2094. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes closed bullish. Next target above is 2237.
Daily – Flat. Stopped out of the long trade from 2071 at the entry price of 2071; so a break-even. Trade pressures have turned down. Volumes were bearish but closed at neutral on Friday. The downward time pressures complete their cycle this week. So, expect upwards time pressures to begin the following week.
Multiple short cycles are producing both long entry and short entry signals at these levels. Best to wait.
The Metals and the Treasuries may be better trades.
Market Pressures_
Copper feels as though it is looking for a bottom – remember it is China related.
Gold and silver continue lower.
Oil and Gas consolidating after the move down to 40-41. Looking for a long entry.
The US 30yr Treasuries are moving up in price.
The US dollar futures are still in the move up.
________________________
S&P 500 Futures_ ESZ15
Monthly – The November Month appears to be closing very near its open. Trade pressures have returned to neutral. Volume – the October close was neutral. The next target up is 2201.
Weekly – Testing the next Weekly long entry confirmation level at 2094, again. Trade pressures are up. Volume has changed for neutral to bullish this last week. the 2117 old high should act as resistance.
Daily – Long from the 2057 long entry. The next target up is 2152. Trade pressures are up. Volume is very light but still bullish.
Raise the stop to 2071.
[12-3-2015 update: stopped out at the 2071 stop price.]
Market Pressures_
Metals. Copper testing new lows. Gold and Silver showing some consolidation around price targets.
Energy. Crude consolidating at a price level, but lower targets are nearby. Nat Gas long trade stopped out.
Bonds. US 30yr T-Bond is in a retracement long trade. Should take the first profit target.
The US dollar (DX) continues the long move up.
________________________
S&P 500 Futures_
Monthly – The 2100 level has been tested four of the last five months and has resisted any breakout. Trade pressures are neutral. Volume was also neutral. 2201 is a new monthly long entry price.
Weekly – The 2094 long entry level was tested again this week. Trade pressures are up but showing divergence. Volume has turned neutral from bullish. Perhaps some profit taking?
Daily – Long. A V-shaped reversal up stopped the short trade out at the 2047 level. A new long entry at 2057 was triggered. The next target up 2152. Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish.
Going into a holiday week. Set the stops at the entry price of 2057.