Market Pressures_

Copper futures are in consolidation as the jobs report is mixed. Gold rallies. Silver is moving up again after a small pullback,

Crude oil is down and looking lower. Natural Gas has accelerated its move down after the 3.21 level was breached.

The US 30 year T-Bond is in a sustained rally.

The US Dollar futures continue their decline.

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S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – The month of May continues the bullish trend. Trade pressures are up. Volumes closed the May month as bullish. A close below the 2218 level would confirm any weekly move down.

Weekly – Continuing the breakout from last week. Trade pressures are up, but showing negative divergences. Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Flat. In the rally from the 2363 long entry level. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

The 2399 gave added confirmation to the move up.

The 2424 target was reached quickly and did not offer any resistance.

The next target up is 2473.

A close below 2401 could signal a new move down. [6-6-17: raise this sell trigger to 2419.]

Market Pressures_

• Copper could not get a move up going. Gold rallied as did Silver. The Silver long is doing well. This is a 5000 oz contract so very dollar move up is significant.
• Crude was taken at the first profit target level. Natural gas continues to be trapped in a  channel.
• The US 30yr Treasury contract was closed at a profit ahead of the roll to September.
• The US Dollar Futures remain in a decline.

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S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – Remains in the move up. from the 2152 long confirmation in August of 2016. Trade pressures are up. Volumes close the month of April as bullish. Any close blow 2194 would confirm a weekly move down.

Weekly – In the move up from the Oct 2106 long confirmation at 2167. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are bullish. A close below 2342 would confirm any daily move down.

Daily – Flat. The short signal triggered on the 17th is cancelled with the close above the old highs. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are now bullish.

The longer time cycle which produced the new long entry level at 2399 is dominating.  The next target up on that cycle is 2524.

But the next closer target up is 2424, which has been there since the first of the year.

Another close below 2385 could trigger a new short again.

Market Pressures_  #tradesummary

• Copper is in a new move up. Gold ran up to its first profit target and is now retracing that move. Silver remains in a long trade.
• Crude was sold at the first profit target for the June contract. Natural gas is still in the sideways move looking for a new long trade.
• The US 30 year Treasury Bond is moving up in a new long trade.
• The US Dollar futures are down and signaling lower.

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S&P 500 Futures_  #emini

Monthly – Remains in the move up. Trade pressures are up. Volume remains bullish. A move below 2183 would confirm a weekly move down.

Weekly – In the move up. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are bullish. A close below 2332 would confirm a daily move lower.

Daily – Flat. The 2383 short level was triggered and met the 2354-2349 targets the second day. Trade pressures are down but turning up. Volumes have changed from bullish to bearish and neutral.

The next target down is 2315.

This snap back rally is retesting the short entry level of 2383. Still in the short until the old high of 2404.50 is broken. So look for a new short entry on the hourly.

 

Market Pressures_

• Copper making a double bottom with a downside target in sight. Gold remains in it’s downtrend. Silver bounced off it’s downside target, will watch for a new move up.
• Crude oil is in a new move up. Natural gas is in a new move up.
• The US 30yr Treasury Bond remains in the move down in price.
• The US dollar futures are attempting a rally, but nothing decisive.

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S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – New monthly highs. Trade pressures are up. Volumes closed the month of April as bullish. A close below 2182 would confirm any weekly short signal.

Weekly – New weekly highs also. Trade pressures are up but showing some divergence. Volumes are bullish. A close below 2331 would confirm any Daily short signal.

Daily – Flat. The 2399 new long entry was  touched, but no close above. A short cycle short entry is at 2383 and could suggest a retracement of this move up. Trade pressures are up but rolling over. Volumes are still bullish.

The first target down would be 2354 and the 25×5 moving average.

Market Pressures_  #tradesummary

• Copper failed the long trade, but still stopped out with a profit. Gold followed suit. Silver is in a fourteen day decline and is within 30 cents of the next downside target.
• Crude dropped thru multiple targets and now has triggered a new long entry. Natural Gas is wandering but did not experience the same selloff that was seen in the Crude futures.
• The US 30yr Treasury Bond futures moved very close the downside target. Watch for any reaction to the French elections.
• The US dollar is slightly weaker and also near a downside target.

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S&P 500 Futures_  #emini

Monthly – Testing the old 2401 highs. Trade pressures are up. Volumes bullish for the 13th month in a row. A close below 2180 would confirm any weekly short entry.

Weekly – The upside targets of 2477 and 2484 are in sight. Trade pressures are up but with lower highs. Volumes remain bullish. A close below 2338 would confirm a short in the daily.

Daily – Flat. After a move down from the 2358 short entry to a 2319 target in late March, price has moved sideways until this earning season began in late April.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes turned bullish with the earnings announcements.

A close above 2399 is the new long entry.  The next target up from that entry is 2424.

A close below 2360 would signal a retracement down.

 

Market Pressures_  #tradesummary

• Copper has signaled a new long entry. Gold has attempted a breakout and has pulled back to that breakout level. Silver is in a move down.
• Crude is in the move down and seems to have bit more to go. Natural gas is consolidating after a move up to it’s target.
• The US 30 year Treasury Bond has move up in price past the 153-15 target level and is now in a retracement move down.
• The US Dollar futures remain in a move down to the 98.00 level.

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S&P 500 Futures_  #emini

Monthly – Approaching the recent highs at 2401. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of March as bullish and appear to be on track for a bullish close for April. 2180 would confirm a weekly short signal.

Weekly – The 2338 short confirmation level was tested three times these last six weeks and has held. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are declining and closed the week as neutral.

Daily – Flat. No trade is indicated. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

A close above the 2399 could trigger a new long entry.

The 2338 level remains the short entry level.

The French elections gave hope to the Centrists that the European center will hold and the US markets gapped up on the open and followed thru with more upside the next day.  Earnings season validated the move with selected out performances in the tech sector.

Market Pressures _  #tradesummary

• Copper is in the move down and grinding lower. Gold and Silver are in a move up perhaps reflecting the Global uncertainties; but both are near upside targets.
• Crude oil has pulled back as expected. Natural Gas dropped down thru the support levels and could start a new move down.
• The US 30 year Treasury Bonds is behaving as a safe haven trade with money flowing into the futures.
• The US Dollar Futures attempted a rally but it seems to have failed. This weekend French election results will impact both the US dollar and the US Treasury Bonds.

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S&P 500 Futures_  #emini

Monthly – The monthly remains in  the uptrend. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of March as bullish. The April volumes seem to be much lower than the recent monthly averages.

Weekly – The 2328 weekly confirmation of the Daily move down was triggered the prior week. The market moved up off that level this last week. Trade pressures are up but rolling over. Volumes continue to be bearish.

Daily – Flat. In the move down from 2358 short entry. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are now bullish.

These quickly vacillating trade pressures are suggesting a rotational correction; but the underlying move is still bearish.

The 2319 target has been tested two times. A third time is not likely to hold. The next target down is 2301.

A close above 2399 is required to restart any upmove.

An event driven flow of funds could forestall this move down. The first French Election results will be available over the weekend. A Le Pen surge could raise the prospects of a French departure from the European Union. Currencies and the Index futures would move rapidly.

The Sunday night futures sessions will be interesting.

[4-23-17: Macron and Le Pen go into the last round of French elections. Macron is favored as a centrist candidate.

Fear down. Risk up.

The Euro and the S&P index rallies, The US Dollar futures and Gold futures fall. ]

Market Pressures _

Copper is at downside targets. Gold and Silver are both moving up with the geopolitical uncertainty but near upside targets. This next week may see a removal of the Easter hedges.

The crude rally is also near upside targets; so would be alert for profit taking. Natural gas pulled back to the 25×5 moving average and is now consolidating.

The US 30yr Treasury bonds have rallied with the safe haven trade.

The US Dollar futures have renewed their move down.

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S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – The month is down this first two weeks. trade pressures are up. Volumes closed the month of March as bullish. A close below 2180 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – In a new move down from the 2328 level. Trade pressure are up but turning down. volumes are bearish. The close below the 2328 level has confirmed the Daily down move. The next target down is 2211.

Daily – Flat. Look for new short entries on any rally. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

In the move down for the 2358 level. The next target down is 2319.

Need a close above 2399 to signal a new move up.

This US bluster about Bombing is making me nervous; too many generals.

Market Pressures_  #tradesummary

• Copper remains directionless with high volatility. Gold spiked up with the Syrian bombing by the US, But then dropped back almost as quickly. Silver remains in an uptrend with similar reactions as the Gold contract.
• Crude Oil rose with gold and the bomb attack; but also dropped back. Natural gas had a small reaction, but was at a profit target which likely minimized any reaction.
• The US 30 Yr Treasury bonds rose with the Syrian bomb attacks but also retreated to the earlier levels as did the metals and crude oil.
• The US Dollar futures rallied and triggered a new uptrend.

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S&P 500 Futures_  #emini

Monthly – The spinning top signaled a possible reversal. Trade pressures are up. Volumes closed the month of March as bullish. A close below 2180 would confirm a weekly short signal.

Weekly – Holding above the short confirmation level. Trade pressures are up, but appear to be rolling over. Volumes have changed to neutral. A close below 2338 would confirm a Daily short signal.

Daily – Flat. The Short entry at 2358 is still active. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 2319.

A close above 2394 could signal a new move up.

Market Pressures_

Copper has no conviction. Gold has signaled higher but looking for a better entry, Silver is also in a new move up and looking for a pullback.

Crude oil is in anew long trade looking for $54, but with tight stops. Natural gas is continuing the move up off the second long entry signal.

The US 30 Year Treasury Bond is in a long trade with tight stops.

The US Dollar futures are rallying in the downtrend and at resistance.

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S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – Closed the month with a “Spinning Top”. Trade pressures are up and trending. Volumes closed the month of March with bullish volume.

Weekly – Tested the short confirmation at 2329 of the Daily; but no close below. Trade pressures are up but rolling over. Volumes changed from bearish to bullish.

Daily – Flat. In the move down from the 2351 short entry. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

After a move down to the first target at 2319, The short trade was stopped out at the 2360 stop for a 9 pt loss.

Be alert for a new short entry at the same 2358 level.

Need the pressures to confirm.