Category: Public

March 3, 2018

S&P 500 Futures

Market Pressures_

Copper is down with some support nearby. Gold is rallying in anticipation of more “tweet” volatility. Silver is not participating.

Crude oil is in a new move down. Natural Gas is trending side ways with a bias lower.

The US 30 year treasury is now in a new long trade.

The US Dollar is looking lower with more White House confusion.

_______________

S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – Despite the spike below the confirmation levels, the close moved back above, so still in bullish mode. Trade pressures are up. Volumes closed the month of February as bullish. The next target up remains 3383. A monthly close below 2657 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – Two weeks down hard to and through the 2569 target level only to rally back up above; then three weeks of backing and filling. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now neutral. This move down has confirmed the Daily move down. A retest of that 2529 low is not unlikely. A close above 2791 would signal higher.

Daily – Flat. In the move up from the 2637 long entry of Feb 6th. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are mixed, bearish to bullish.

The next target up in the Feb 6th cycle is 2814.

However a new March shorter cycle has triggered a new move down at 2707 inside this February up cycle.

The next target down is 2573 and this level is the likely retest target.

A close above the 25×5 moving average at 2711 would void this retracement move down.

February 25, 2018

S&P 500 Futures

Market Pressures_

Copper is moving higher. Gold and silver are in retracements lower after moves higher.

Crude has entered an ew move up. Natural Gas is stepping down thru each downside level.

The US 30yr Treasury Bond is down and near it extended target; expect some retracement soon.

The US dollar futures are bouncing off a recent double bottom; need to break above the 25×5 moving average.

_____________________

S&P 500_

Monthly – Back up to the 2766 old target level. Trade pressures are up. Volumes closed the month Of January as bullish. The next target up is 3383. A close below 2657 would confirm a weekly move lower.

Weekly – The two week drop of 250 S&P points has retraced to 2744; recovering about 62% of the move down. Trade pressures are down. Volumes has moved to neutral from bearish.

Daily – Flat. In the move up from the long entry at 2637. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 2814. The 25×5 moving average has acted as resistance for the last five trading days. A close above this 25×5, which would also break the 62% weekly level, would signal higher. A close below the 2672 level could warn of a retest of the lows.

[3-1-18: the break below 2707 (2672 adjusted for the new highs) has signal a new move lower.]

See the Navellier Top 5 list. Four new stocks have replaced four older stocks.

February 25, 2018

Navellier Top 5 Stocks for March

(from Navellier Research, pls do your own due diligence)
https://navelliergrowth.investorplace.com/bluechip/

The following is provided by Navellier with technical comment from South Ocean Management –

Several of our fundamentally superior stocks have outperformed during what has been a stock market rollercoaster ride. And as we prepare to enter the first-quarter earnings announcement season, I want to make sure that these stocks get the spotlight they deserve. So this month, four out of my five picks are new to the list. Now, let’s see why these stocks have the most upside potential for March.

Align Technology, Inc.

Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN) is a global medical device company that designs and produces OrthoCAD digital services, iTero Intraoral scanners and Invisalign clear aligners. In fact, Align Technology pioneered the invisible orthodontics market by introducing Invisalign in 1999. And now the company is joining my Top 5 Stocks list for the first time since being added to the Buy List in the November 2017 Issue.

I especially like the fact that the company’s Invisalign product has helped treat over five million patients in more than 90 countries worldwide. Just think: The number of dental patients finding relief from traditional metal braces through Align Technology is expanding rapidly. The company treated its four millionth patient in September 2016 and hit its five millionth patient in November 2017. Whether it’s their clear aligners, digital scanning solutions or customizable virtual treatment plans, Align Technology brings a more pleasant orthodontic experience to both patients and dental professionals. So it’s no wonder that the company has stacked more than 870 patents under its belt.

Because Align Technology is revolutionizing the way adults and teenagers address corrective dental issues, their business is booming. In fact, in the fourth quarter, Invisalign case shipments jumped 34% year-over-year to 255,000. Sales grew 44% year-over-year to $421.30 million. And excluding a one-time charge from the U.S. Tax Cut and Jobs Act, adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.19. Analysts were expecting earnings of $0.96 per share, so Align Technology essentially posted a 24% earnings surprise.

However, the company’s forward-looking guidance is what’s kept Wall Street abuzz. For the first quarter, Align Technology is forecasting sales between $400 million and $410 million, or 29% to 32% annual sales growth. Adjusted earnings per share are expected to range between $0.94 and $0.98, or 11% to 15% annual earnings growth. This Moderately Aggressive stock is a Strong Buy up to $291 per share.

SOM Technicals:

2-25-18: Closed at 265. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 293.

3-2-18: Closed at 253.71. Trade pressures are up but declining. volumes are bearish. The next target up is 265.13.

3-11-18: Closed at 271.74. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 293.57.

3-17-18: Closed at 274.29. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are neutral. The next target up is 293.

3-23-18: Closed at 250.75. Trade pressures are up but rolling over. Volumes are bearish. Support has been broken. The next target down is 232.08.

Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P.

Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. (BIP) is making its first appearance on my Top 5 Stocks list since being added to the Buy List in the May 2017 Issue. As a refresher, Brookfield Infrastructure Partners is a global limited partnership that manages and acquires infrastructure assets, such as energy, water and freight. The company is one of a few pure-play, publicly-traded global infrastructure entities. And did you know that Brookfield Infrastructure Partners owns and operates one of the largest natural gas transmission and pipeline systems in the U.S.?

Brookfield Infrastructure Partners recently celebrated its 10-year anniversary and no doubt raised a glass to its thriving fundamentals. During the fourth quarter, revenue surged 45.4% year-over-year to $984 million. Plus, funds from operations (FFO) accelerated 27.8% year-over-year to $313 million, or $0.80 per share. While Brookfield Infrastructure Partners clearly has strong fundamentals, what’s particularly impressive is the REIT’s uncanny ability to stay ahead of the curve.

In its fourth-quarter report, Brookfield Infrastructure Partners revealed that in preparation for higher interest rates, it has refinanced their businesses and extended debt maturities. The company has about 25% of its debt maturing before 2022, and roughly 80% of the debt is fixed-rate. In other words, their financial costs are largely protected from rising rates for the foreseeable future.

Meanwhile, analysts are forecasting a stunning 2,266.70% in annual earnings growth and 44% annual sales growth for the company’s first quarter. And this year, company management is looking to fund their organic growth project backlog and seize new investment opportunities.

Sweetening the package, Brookfield Infrastructure Partners brings a solid dividend track record. The company has paid a consecutive dividend for 40 quarters, or about 10 years. Even better: Brookfield Infrastructure Partners recently increased its dividend by 8%. The company will now pay a quarterly dividend of $0.47 per share on March 29 to all shareholders of record on February 28, compared to the $0.4350 per share paid last December. At current prices, BIP has a 4.7% annual dividend yield. I recommend that you buy this Conservative stock up to $43 per share.

SOM Technicals:

2-15-18: Closed at 40.11. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target up is 42.27, the 200 day moving average.

3-2-18: Closed at 40.61. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target up is 42.26.

3-11-18: Closed at 41.27. Trade pressures rising into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 42.31.

3-17-18: Closed at 40.36. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bullish. Tracking the 25×5 as resistance now.

3-23-18: Closed at 41.28. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are mixed, bearish to bullish.

Intuitive Surgical, Inc.

Since being added to the Buy List in the November 2016 Issue, Intuitive Surgical, Inc.’s (ISRG) latest minimally invasive surgical system—the da Vinci X™—received clearance from the FDA. This means that surgeons and hospitals across the globe now have access to some of the most advanced robotic-assisted surgery technology at an affordable rate.

From the time that the da Vinci system was launched in 1999, 4,409 da Vinci-enabled operating rooms have been established. That means that every 36 seconds, a surgeon initiates a da Vinci procedure. Talk about an uncanny ability to bring what sounds like science fiction to reality! Given the company’s growing monopoly on robotic surgery, it’s not unusual to see Intuitive Surgical make its inaugural appearance on the Top 5 Stocks list.

One needs to look no further than the company’s fourth-quarter results for evidence of Intuitive Surgical’s profitability. Intuitive Surgical reported that the number of da Vinci shipments jumped 33% year-over-year to 216. During the quarter, sales climbed 17.9% year-over-year to $892.4 million. Also, adjusted earnings per share increased 25.1% year-over-year to $2.54. For full year 2017, 875,000 da Vinci procedures were performed by surgeons seeking better outcomes for their patients. Any way you slice it, the company is transforming surgical options among surgeons, patients and their families.

Looking ahead to the first quarter, sales are forecast to grow 15.2% year-over-year to $776.69 million. Adjusted earnings per share are forecast to rise 21.2% year-over-year to $2.06. Add this Conservative stock up to $457 per share.

SOM Technicals:

2-25-18: Closed at 427.51. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bearish. The next target up is 437.

3-2-18: Closed at 417.39. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are bearish. The next target up is 437.

3-11-18: Closed at 440.86. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 472.22.

3-17-18: Closed at 436.00. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are Bearish. Support is the 25×5 at 423.

3-23-18: Closed at 3.99.15. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 374.56.

NVR, Inc.

NVR, Inc. (NVR) is making its fifth-straight appearance on the Top 5 Stocks list this month. Since being added to the Buy List in the October 2017 Issue, the homebuilding and mortgage banking company has raised eyebrows among some of you. It’s relatively high price and fourth-quarter earnings miss has driven several of you to ask why I continue to select NVR as one of my Top 5 Stocks. Besides the fact that its Quantitative grade of an A-rating indicates that the stock is in high demand and likely to appreciate in the upcoming months, I’d like to discuss why NVR has continued to earn a spot on this coveted list.

First, as I’m sure you’ve found in your own home buying experience, the two toughest steps are to find the perfect home, and then to determine how to finance that purchase. Most homebuilders provide assistance on the former, and then send you elsewhere for the latter. What’s great about NVR is that it kills two birds with one stone. As you know, NVR builds and sells homes under three brands: Ryan Homes, NVHomes and Heartland Homes. Once homebuyers select their home from NVR, they can finance the purchase through NVR Settlement Services. This integration is invaluable to many first-time homebuyers—particularly millennials—that would likely find the traditional process too complicated.

Second, as I predicted in the February Monthly Issue, recent disappointing housing data was likely a short-term consequence from the severe winter weather. And the most-recent housing starts and building permits show that weather was indeed the primary culprit. Last week, the Commerce Department revealed that housing starts jumped 9.7% in January to 1.326 million housing units, boosted by single-family homebuilding. On top of strong housing starts, building permits grew 7.4%, the biggest monthly surge in over 10 years!

Given that NVR builds single-family homes, townhomes and condominiums in 14 states across the Northeast, South and Midwest, the resurgence in housing starts and building permits bodes well for NVR’s top- and bottom-lines. In fact, for the first quarter, analysts are looking for NVR to post 27.2% annual earnings growth and 14.8% annual sales growth. So this Conservative stock remains a Strong Buy up to $3,209 per share.

SOM Technicals:

10-22-17: New Addition. In the move up from the 2551 price in late June 2017. Trade pressures are up Volumes are bullish. the next target up is 3331. Support is at 2897.

10-28-17: closed at 3240. Trade pressure up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 3331.

11-5-17: Closed at 3210.65. Touched the 3331 target, now in consolidation. The next target up is 3961. Support at 3052. Bearish volume is coming in.

11-11-17: Closed at 3289.64. Still at the 3331 target levels. A breakout will set the next target up at 3961.32. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

11-18-17: Closed at 3258.47. The 3331 target has produced a lengthy consolidation. Trade pressures are up but declining.Volumes are now bearish. the next quarterly report will tell the tale.

11-25-17: Closed at 3399.12. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 3406.26.

12-03-17: Closed at 3480.00. Home builders are strong. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. At fair value.

12-08-17: Closed at 3392.68. In a retracement. Trading pressures are down. Volumes are neutral.

12-23-17: Closed at 3480.00. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 3883.

12-30-17: Closed at 3508.22. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 3883.

1-6-18: Closed at 3567.00. Trade pressures are up and trending. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 3883.

1-13-18: Closed at 3558.23. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish. Support at the 25×5 moving average, 3478.

1-20-18: Closed at 3700. Trade pressures are up thru the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 3877.

1-28-18: Closed at 3292.23. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral. Two support levels have been taken out. Hold.

2-3-18: Closed at 3000. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. Consolidating below the 3100 level.

2-10-18: Closed at 2800.00. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. Expect consolidation here at the 200 day moving average.

2-17-18: Closed at 3208.23. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bullish.

2-15-18: Closed at 2998.80. Trade pressures are neutral. Volumes are bearish. The next target up is 3597. the next support down is the 200 day moving average at 2914.00.

3-2-18: Closed at 2900.02. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The 200 day is acting as support.

3-11-18: Closed at 3056.98. Trade pressure are in the neutral zone and rising. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 3250.

3-17-18: Closed at 3060.45. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are Bullish. The next target up is 3250.

3-23-18: Closed at 2989.84. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish. Sitting on the 200 day moving average support.

S&P Global Inc.

Wrapping up this month’s list is S&P Global Inc. (SPGI), which has landed on our Top 5 Stocks list for the first time since being added to the Buy List in December. If you recall, S&P Global provides intelligence, data and analytics, enabling business leaders around the world to make more informed decisions. With multiple divisions, including S&P Market Intelligence, S&P Global Ratings, S&P Dow Jones Indices and S&P Global Platts, the company has evolved into the leading provider of credit ratings, and is relied on by countless financial professionals for its data and custom indices. Just this week, S&P Global announced that it is set to acquire global trade data company Panjiva. The acquisition is expected to be profitable in 2019 and should broaden S&P Global’s already impressive portfolio of offerings.

S&P Global also has simply stunning sales and earnings. For the fourth-quarter, S&P Global’s revenue jumped 13.6% year-over-year to $1.59 billion. Adjusted net income surged 44.5% year-over-year to $474 million, or $1.85 per share. The consensus estimate was for earnings of $1.61 per share on $1.5 billion in sales, so S&P Global posted a nice 14.9% earnings surprise and a 6% sales surprise.

Looking ahead to the first quarter, analysts are currently calling for 5.8% annual sales growth 22.2% and annual earnings growth. And earnings per share estimates have been revised 15.1% higher in recent months, so a fifth-straight quarterly earnings surprise may be in the offing.

If you recall, S&P Global also has a long history of rewarding shareholders, having paid a consistent quarterly dividend for nearly 38 years. S&P Global went ex-dividend today, February 23. The company will pay a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share on March 12 to all shareholders of record on Monday, February 26. At current prices, SPGI has a 1.1% annual dividend yield. If you haven’t already, I recommend that you buy this Conservative stock below $205 per share.

SOM Technicals:

2-25-18: Closed at 191.67. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 203.26.

3-2-18: Closed at 189.02. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are bearish. The next target up is 203.26.

3-11-18: Closed at 194.96. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 203.26.

3-17-18: Closed at 192.51. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral. Support is the 25×5 at 189.

3-23-18: Closed at 186.49. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. Has just broken the 25×5 support. The next target down is 185.18, then 177.41.

February 17, 2018

S&P 500 Futures

Market Pressures _

Copper has rallied to recover most of the weeks losses. Gold is attempting a new move up. Silver is in a new move up, but lagging.

Crude oil has turned up but not yet in a new move up. Natural Gas continues the move down.

The US 30 year Treasury bond is retesting the January lows.

The US Dollar futures attempted a move up but seems to have failed.

_________________

S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – The move down had a significant retracement to move back above the the 2657 confirmation level. Trade pressures are up. Volumes closed the January month as bullish. The next target up is 3383. A close below the 2657 level would confirm the weekly move down.

Weekly – In the move down from the 2803 level with confirmed the Daily move down.. Trade pressures are down. Volumes have changed from bearish to neutral. The move down went thru two target levels quickly, then turned up and this retracement has signaled a new move up at the week’s close above 2731 which confirms the Daily move higher. The next target up is the prior high.

Daily – Flat. In the move up from the long entry level at 2637. Trade pressures are rising up thru the neutral zone. Volumes are now bullish.

The next target up is 2814.

A close below 2672 would signal lower and would be a stop level for any longs.

February 10, 2018

S&P 500 Futures

Market Pressures_

Copper is making a nice move down. Gold is in a short trade. Silver was stopped out early.

Crude oil broke down late in the week. Natural gas is similarly down.

The US 30 year Treasuries are down, but are finding a temporary bottom.

The US Dollar futures have made a retracement move up to test downtrend resistance.

_____________

S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – Price has moved thru the downtrend confirmation level of 2657. Trade pressures are up. Volumes closed the month of January as bullish. The next target down is 2299. This 2657 level has to close the month to qualify as a breakdown.

Weekly – The weekly has closed below the confirmation level of 2803. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish. The down side target of 2636 has been met and the 2569 has been touched. The next target down is the 2569 level.

Daily – Flat. In the retracement move up from the 2637 level. Trade pressures are down and extended. Volumes are neutral.

A close below 2644 created a new move down inside this new move up; significant volatility.

The next target up is 2814. The next target down is 2510.

February 3, 2018

S&P 500 Futures

Market Pressures_

Copper is in the move down. Both Gold and silver are in new short trades.

Crude is holding up well The next Crude target up is nearby and the new short entry is also nearby. Natural gas has turned down.

The US 30 year Treasury Bond has traded down sharply and should see some consolidation here.

The US Dollar futures remain in the move down towards the $88 target.

___________________

S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – Price has pulled back to the prior 2768 target level. Trade pressures are still up and trending. Volumes closed the month of January as bullish. The next target up remains 3383. A close below 2657 would confirm a weekly move lower.
[2-5-18:The weekly move down has been confirmed on the monthly.]

Weekly – The weekly short entry has been triggered. Trade pressures are up but rolling over. Volumes have changed from bullish to bearish. The next target down is 2686. The close below 2803 has confirmed the daily move down.
[2-2-18: the weekly close has confirmed the Daily move lower.]

Daily – Short. In the new move down from the 2836 short entry level after meeting the 2850 upside target. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish.

At 2761 the next target down and at the confluence of the 25×5 moving average and the uptrend support line. Expect some consolidation at these levels.

The next target down is the weekly 2686 level.
[2-5-18: That level was broken in one day. The next support is the November 2017 lows at 2579.]

A close above 2864 would restart the move up.
[2-5-18: a close above 2713 would signal higher.]

Set the stops at the hourly 25×5 moving average of 2807.
[2-5-18: lower stops to 2730. Stops were taken out. The late afternoon sell off occurred immediately thereafter.]

January 28, 2018

Navellier Top 5 Stocks

___________
(from Navellier Research, pls do your own due diligence)

https://navelliergrowth.investorplace.com/bluechip/

(SOM also retains IPGP in the model portfolio from previous Top 5 lists. Will sell after next earnings reports. The model portfolio has been marked to market at the year end, so will start at zero gains. Will sell IPGP at the next earning report. Sold at 240.00)

Top 5 Stocks for February

From Navellier – My quantitative and fundamental screens from Portfolio Grader confirmed that my Top 5 Stocks from the prior two months still have significant momentum on their side. These five stocks represent the crème de la crème of our 47 stocks. Let’s take a closer look at what’s keeping them hot.

The Chemours Company

The Chemours Company (CC) has earned the first spot on my Top 5 Stocks list for the sixth-straight month. Shares have bounced 9% since the January Monthly Issue, and it’s no surprise why. As I noted in the December 28 Weekly Update, the company raised the price of its global Tefzel™ ETFE fluropolymer and Viton™ FKM fluoroelastomer products—which can be found in everything from electrical wiring to vehicles—by 10% on January 1. And did you know that among the three chemicals that Chemours specializes in, their fluoroplastics business is vital to semiconductors?

In fact, the Internet of Things (Iot) devices that are increasingly taking over how people live, work and play, all depend on computer chips in order to work. Because Chemours’ fluoroplastics prevent metallic contamination, corrosion and other negative changes from taking place, Chemours makes these chips superior. Aside from the IoT, the company’s fluoroplastics products can be found in air conditioning, refrigeration and foam blowing agents. Clearly, this price change should be a boon to Chemours’ bottom line.

Chemours is scheduled to announce earnings and sales results for the fourth quarter on Wednesday, February 14. The analyst community is expecting sales to jump 17.1% year-over-year to $1.55 billion. Earnings per share are forecast to surge 171.4% year-over-year to $0.95 per share, up from $0.35 per share in the same quarter a year ago. Along with its healthy fundamentals, CC has a 1.27% annual dividend yield and has paid a dividend for nine-consecutive quarters. Chemours will go ex-dividend on February 14. Shareholders of record on February 15 will receive $0.17 per share on March 15. This Moderately Aggressive stock is a good buy up to $60 per share.

SOM Technicals:

9-30-17: In the move up from 44.89 with a secondary entry of 48.00. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are now bearish. The next target up is 54.57. The stop is at the low pivot of 34.87.

10/8/17: Now at the 54.37 target. Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish. The next target up is 60.74. Raise the stop to 44.07.

10-16-17: At 56.69. Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish. Support at the 25×5 moving average, currently 52.46.

10-22-17: Down this week to 55.89. Support at 53.34. Next target is at 60.74.

10-28-17: closed at 57.23. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes returned to bullish. The next target up is 60.74.

11-5-17: Closed at 52.74. Down hard after earnings guidance disappointed. Next target up is now 54.37. Support has been violated. Wait for seller to abate then assess.

11-11-17: Closed at 50.50. Will wait for the next quarterly earnings report. The next target up is 54.37. Trade pressures are down and volumes are neutral.

11-18-17: Closed at 52.50. A new long entry at 51.81. Trade pressures are down and volumes are now bullish.

11-25-17: Closed at 53.31. Trade pressures are now up and Volumes are bullish. 53.98 is a new target.

12-03-17: Closed a t 52.03. Trade pressures are down. volumes are still bullish.

12-8-17: Closed a t 47.64. Trade pressures are down. volumes are neutral. Need to close above 50.51 to get going again.

12 23-17: Closed at 49.02. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. Near the new long entry.

12-30-17: Closed at 50.10. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The new long entry is triggered at 50.51.

1-6-18: Closed at 50.73. In a new move up. Trade pressures are up and volumes are bullish.

1-13-17: Closed at 52.47. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 59.39.

1-20-18: Closed at 54.02. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 59.39.

1-28-18: Closed at 53.43. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The next target remains 59.30.

2-3-18 Closed at 49.21. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 47.36.

2-10-18: Closed at 46.46. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 41.57.

2-17-18: Closed at 48.84. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bearish.

China Lodging Group Ltd.

China Lodging Group Ltd. (HTHT) is making an appearance on the Top 5 Stocks list for the third-straight month. As a Chinese hotel management company, China Lodging Group is certainly benefitting from the booming Chinese tourism industry. According to the China National Tourism Administration (CNTA), there were over two billion tourist trips within China by both its urban and rural residents in the first half of 2017. Inbound tourism, or those coming into China, totaled approximately 65 million trips.

Last week, China Lodging Group published preliminary fourth-quarter 2017 results for its hotel operations. The company expects the total number of hotels in operation to grow 15% year-over-year to 3,746, or 379,675 hotel rooms. Also, the analyst community is expecting the company to report earnings of $0.72 per share on $340.55 million sales, which translates to 166.7% annual earnings growth and 30.9% annual sales growth. Even better: In the past three months, analysts have revised their fourth-quarter earnings per share estimates 33% higher. Look out for the official sales and earnings report on or around Tuesday, February 27. I recommend that you buy this Aggressive stock up to $177 per share.

SOM Technicals:

11-18-17: Closed at 125. A second buy signal is at 133.72. Trade pressures are rising out of the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral.

11-25-17: Closed at 120.62. Testing support. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. Earnings report is on Tuesday the 28th of November.

12-03-17: Closed at 108.75. Great earnings report, but China stocks were sold off on news of stricter lending requirements. trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral.

12-8-17: Closed at 123.60. Trade pressures are rising back into the neutral zone. Volumes have returned to bullish.

12-23-17: Closed at 138.07. Nice recovery off the China selloff. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. Thru the new long entry.

12-20-17: Closed at 145.30. In the new move up from 137.30. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 152.58.

1-6-18: Closed at 153.00. Trade pressures are extended. Volumes have turned to neutral.

1-13-18: Closed at 155.00. Trade pressures are up and extended. Volumes are back to bullish; consolidating.

1-20-18: Closed at 156.81. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 164.52.

1-28-18: Closed at 156.80. Trade pressures are up and declining. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 164.52.

2-3-18: Closed at 141.00. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 137.67.

2-10-18: Closed at 134.01. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 120.04.

2-17-18: Closed at 146.99. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish.

Ferrari NV

Ferrari NV (RACE) has parked itself in the Top 5 Stocks list for the seventh-straight month, driven by strong fundamentals (pun intended). In addition to the recent revelation on the company’s plans to create a battery-powered supercar, there’s a new coupe that’s caught Wall Street’s attention. Ferrari is reportedly close to publicly revealing the “New V8 Sport Special Series,” which would be the fastest V8 car in northern Italy. The car would have more carbon fiber than ever seen in a Ferrari. Car enthusiasts expect to see the vehicle at the 88th International Geneva Motor Show in March.

While I love the performance and versatility of Ferrari’s cars, the company’s fundamentals are what keeps RACE among my Top 5 picks. If you purchased shares at the original time of my recommendation, you should be sitting on a 36% gain. Personally, I don’t think that’s too shabby. As you know, the luxury sports car manufacturer posted better-than-expected results in the third quarter.

Furthermore, analysts expect fourth-quarter sales to rise 4.6% year-over-year to $1.07 billion, and earnings per share to increase 22.2% year-over-year to $0.88. RACE has posted an average 11.5% earnings surprise in the past four quarters, and analysts have revised earnings estimates 6% higher in the past three months. So I’m looking for RACE to post a nice earnings surprise when it reports results on Thursday, February 1. Before then, I recommend that you add shares of this Moderately Aggressive stock up to $130 per share.

SOM Technicals:

9-30-17: In the move up from the 89.42 entry. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral. Now at the upside target of 119.28. Expect consolidation and possible retracement. Would look to add near the previous target of 105-106.

10-8-17: Still in consolidation above the 105 target. Trade pressures have moved up out of the neutral zone. Volumes remain neutral. Would look to add near the support area of 109-110.

10-16-17: At 116.87. Trading between the 105 level and the 119.28 target. Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain neutral.

10-22-17: down to 114.60. Consolidating at the 115.27 new long entry. Support at the 107.31 pivot.

10-28-17: closed the week at 115.59. Trade pressures are in the neutral zone. Volumes have returned to bullish. The next target up is 119.26.

11-5-17: closed at 116.61. Trade pressures back in the neutral zone. In consolidation here at the 119.28 target. The next target after getting thru resistance is 127.16. Support is 115.59.

11-11-17: Closed at 109.56. Profit taking after good earnings sends the stock down, remains on the top 5 list. The next target up is 119.28. Trade pressures are down, volumes are bearish.

11-18-17: Closed at 109.25. The long entry is 115.27. Trade pressures are down and volumes are bearish.

11-25-17: Closed at 113.71. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are neutral. 115.91 is the next target up.

12-03-17: Closed at 107.47. Profit taking. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral.

12-08-17: Closed at 106.04. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral. A close above 112 would get the move going again.

12-23-17: Closed at 106.54. Trade pressures are up. Volumes have turned bullish. 107.38 would start the retracement, 112 would confirm the move.

12-30-17: Closed at 104.84. Trade pressures are up, but rolling over. Volumes are bearish. Need a move up thru 112 to get the long trade going again.

1-6-18: Closed at 112.39. At the 25×5 moving average which acts as resistance. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

1-13-18: Closed at 117.72: The move thru the new long entry has accelerated the move up. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 125.89.

1-20-18: Closed at 120.75. Moved easily thru the 117.48 target. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. the next target up is 128.03.

1-28-18: Closed at 119.86. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are neutral. The next target up is 128.03.

2-3-18: Closed at 127.14. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes are now neutral. Consolidating at the 128.03 target.

2-10-18: Closed at 119.98. Trade pressures are in the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 128.03.

2-17-18: Closed at 129.71. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

NVR, Inc.

NVR, Inc. (NVR) was added to the Buy List in September 2017 and the homebuilder has quickly grown into one of my favorite stocks, claiming the fourth spot on the Top 5 Stocks list for the fourth-straight month. As we discussed earlier, the most-recent housing data was disappointing, but there’s actually a little something in there to cheer about. You see, though housing starts and building permits for single-family homes fell in December, permits are now outpacing starts. And this suggests that homebuilding will bounce back in the upcoming months. As home seekers and builders alike start to resume activities that bitter temperatures delayed, demand and construction of single-family homes is bound to come roaring back. And that should be a boon to NVR, which builds homes in 29 metropolitan areas across 14 states.

NVR posted earnings and sales results for the fourth quarter on Thursday, January 25. During the quarter, sales jumped 1.7% year-over-year to $1.78 billion, up from $1.75 billion in the same quarter a year ago. The company’s adjusted earnings per share climbed 14.8% year-over-year to $43.41, compared with $37.80 per share in the fourth quarter of 2016. The analyst community was expecting earnings of $47.96 per share on $1.99 billion in sales, so NVR posted a 9.5% earnings miss and a 10.6% sales miss.

NVR noted that tax-related expenses from the new tax bill, as well as the adoption of new accounting standards, impacted its fourth-quarter earnings. We also need to consider that NVR’s fourth-quarter new home orders increased 18% year-over-year to 4,306 units. And their gross profit margin rose to 19.3%. So despite the earnings miss, this was still a strong quarter for the company. This Conservative stock is a Strong Buy up to $3,515 per share.