#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Pressures_

Copper is now the “Tariff Hope” indicator. Gold rallied on international uncertainties but sold off this week, support is just lower. Silver rallied these last 10 days, but seems stalled here.

Crude is base building on low volumes for a possible move up. Natural gas is giving back a good portion of the huge rally.

The US 30 year Treasury futures are at targets and are signaling a retracement.

The US Dollar futures are at new highs, making it difficult for the US equity markets to compete.

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S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – In the move down from the 2730 short confirmation. Trade pressures are down for the first time in two years. Volumes closed the month of November as bullish, reversing the bearish month of October.  The next target down is 2372. A close above the 2951 high would confirm any weekly move higher.

Weekly – In the move down from the 2863 short confirmation. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 2547, the February lows. A close above 2861 would confirm any daily move higher.

Daily – Flat. Breaks down on the lower volumes, but still a 500 point down day. Trade pressures are down and trending. Volumes are bearish.

The next targets down are the 2587 spike down and the prior lows at 2564 and 2546.

A close above the 2673 level would signal higher. Hard to see what the catalyst would be, perhaps some FED talk this next week. But even that has to surmount this ridiculous White House news stream.

[12-19-18: No Santa Claus. The October lows failed. The February lows failed. The “FED meeting low” is now 2489, closing at 2507. The next targets down are 2477 and 2458. A close above 2541 would signal higher. 2513 is the Hourly long entry.]

________________

Navellier Top 5 – Down for the year after being up 20% in the first quarter. A few of the five closed up for the week despite the 500 point drop. These superior fundamentals will work when the overall market stops the trading these fears of incompetence. Not sure when that is, however.

[The author may have long or short positions in any of the securities mentioned.]

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Pressures_

Copper follows the equity markets and is at the lower channel bound. Gold rallied with the tariff uncertainties. Silver is quiet but shows a bullish bias.

Crude Oil is near a new long entry. Natural gas is consolidating at it’s highs. But price should bring out new gas supply.

The US 30 year Treasury Bond rally is now at resistance.

The US Dollar futures are showing some signs of topping out.

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S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – In the move down. Trade pressures are down. Volumes closed the month of November as bullish. The next target down is 2603, then the 25×5 MA at 2500. A close above the 2947 high would confirm any weekly move higher.

Weekly – In the move down from the 2859 short confirmation. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are mixed neutral to bearish. The next target down is 2597. A close above 2877 would confirm any daily move higher.

Daily – Flat. In the move down from the 2768 short entry. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bullish to neutral.

Moved down to the 2695 target in one day, resumed the move down a day later to the 2622 target which produced a intraday huge recovery, only to give it all back the following day with a second test down to the 2622, where the market closed on Friday.

Could have traded the Thursday spike with a long trade, but too much volatility (risk).

The next targets down are confluences of the many older cycle targets and the 2603 October lows. If that fails then 2503 is the next target down.

A close above 2671 would signal higher.

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Navellier TOP 5 – No early Christmas presents here. Holding just around a breakeven for the year.

[The author may have long or short positions in any of the securities mentioned.]

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Pressures _

Copper is slightly bullish, Gold is neutral and Silver is bearish. All waiting the results of the tariff discussions, or non-discussions.

Crude is now settling in at the #50 level. Less about the economy than the supply and demand functions. Natural gas is trying the stabilize at the 4.50 level. Nat Gas is signaling lower but very volatile.

The US 30 Year Treasury Bonds are in the move up and at target. The FED suggests rates are near where they want them to be. So, any further moves are likely to be event driven.

The US Dollar futures are testing the highs. The Equity markets are rising despite these higher dollar prices. Anticipating some tariff resolution? and then stronger emerging markets?

________________

S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – The 2603 held thru the month end. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes closed the mont of November as Bullish. The next target down is 2368. A close above the 2947 high would confirm any weekly move higher.

Weekly – Closed above the prior week high. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now neutral. In the move down from the 2859 level. The next target down is 2597. A close above 2877 would confirm any daily move higher.

Daily – Flat. The long trade was entered at the expected 2664 level on 11/27. Stops and profit targets were set and the 2758 profit target was met at the close on Friday. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 2840.

But multiple upside target levels exist between 2817 and 2849 which suggest heavy resistance getting there. This overhead resistance and the 2603 lower pivot constructs a trading channel that is the likely range for trading until new information offsets the current economic and political worries. Corporate earnings projections remain robust.

A close below the 25×5 MA would signal lower. Traders in the hedge fund world will not let a year-end profit get away, so expect some quick selling into any rips.

[12-5-18: Sold the rip hard. Now at 2626 lows. An hourly close above 2665 would signal higher. But would need a confirmation of a close above 2680.]

The cash SPX is now back above the 2017 close (2697). So, up slightly for the 2018 year.

______________________

The Navellier Top 5 – Recovered with a gain of about 2.5%. Still up for the year. Ecopetrol (EC) and Progressive (PGR) have been replaced with the CME Group (CME) and Lamb Weston Hldgs (LW).

[The author may have long or short positions in any of the securities mentioned.]

The following is provided by Navellier with technical comment from South Ocean Management – pls do your own due diligence.

https://navelliergrowth.investorplace.com/

Navellier says,

Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) is making its third-straight appearance on the Top 5 Stocks list. The company remains a fixture in shopping centers across the country. In fact, while many department stores are downsizing and cost cutting, Burlington Stores is thriving. That’s because it offers shoppers high-quality, name brand merchandise at unbeatable prices. Of course, every store claims to do that, but Burlington Stores actually delivers through its off-price model.

The company released third-quarter results on Wednesday, November 28—and it was a stunning quarter. Burlington Stores noted that it saw a 4.4% increase in comparable sales and 13.7% total sales growth. Total third-quarter sales were $1.63 billion, which topped estimates for $1.6 billion.

Burlington Stores also posted 70% annual third-quarter earnings growth. Adjusted earnings came in at $83 million, or $1.21 per share, compared with $0.70 per share in the same quarter a year ago. The consensus estimate called for adjusted earnings of $1.06 per share, so BURL beat estimates by 14.2%.

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, Burlington Stores expects total sales growth between 8% and 9%. Adjusted earnings per share are forecast to be between $2.71 and $2.75, up from $2.14 per share in the fourth quarter of 2017. Buy this Conservative stock up to $178 per share.

SOM Technicals:

9-29-18: Closed at 162.93. Trade pressures are down but rising into the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral. Need a close above 168.90 to signal higher.

10-7-18: Closed at 152.34. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 145.70.

10-13-18: Closed at 155.48. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are now bullish. The next target up is the 25×5 resistance at 162.62.

10-20-18: Closed at 155.35. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. 162.62 is now the new long entry.

10-28-18: Closed at 170.82. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. Ripped thru the new long entry; the next target up is 175.48.

11-3-18: Closed at 173.19. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. the next target up is 180.99.

11-10-18: Closed at 172.12. Trade pressures are up and rolling over. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 180.99.

11-17-18: Closed at 161.75. Trade pressures are up but have turned down. Volumes are Bearish. At the 25×5 moving average support line and the 162.62 long entry level.

11-24-18: Closed at 148.32. Trade pressures are now down. Volumes are bearish. At the 200 Day MA. The next target down is 135.90.

11-30-18: Closed at 166.13. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral. The bounce up off the 200 day MA was dramatic and marks that level as strong support. Next target up is 173.42.

12-8-18: Closed at 157.75. Trade pressures are up but turning down. Volumes are neutral. Support at the 200 day MA, @150.50.

12-15-18: Closed at 158.30. Trade pressures are still in the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish. Support is at the 200 day MA @151.46.

 

CME Group, Inc. (CME) is being added as a Top 5 Stock for December following its strong third-quarter earnings report. Before we dive into the numbers, let me share a quick review of the company for you: CME runs the world’s leading derivatives marketplace, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Simply put, CME Group dominates the world of options trading. In fact, its tagline is that it is “where the world comes to manage risk.” For those of you who aren’t as familiar with the CME, or “the Merc,” it trades several types of financial instruments: Interest rates, equities, currencies and commodities (like energy, agricultural products and metals). CME Group executes trades through its electronic trading platforms, and it also provides hosting, connectivity and customer support for electronic trading.

CME posted double-digit earnings growth for the third quarter. Last quarter, the company earned $411.8 million, or $1.21 per share, on $904 million in revenue. Compared with Q3 2017, this represented 33% annual earnings growth and 1.6% sales growth. Adjusted earnings came in at $1.45 per share. Analysts were expecting adjusted earnings of $1.43 per share on $913.3 million in revenue, so CME Group posted a 1.4% earnings surprise and a slight sales miss.

For the fourth quarter, the consensus estimate calls for earnings of $1.61 per share on $1.06 billion in sales, which represents 17.8% annual sales growth and 43.7% annual earnings growth. Earnings estimates have fluctuated a bit in the past three months, but CME has a history of topping estimates.

While CME is on our High-Growth Investment Buy List, we get the added benefit of its 1.4% annual dividend yield. It also has a strong track record of dividend increases and special dividends. In fact, since 2012, CME has returned nearly $10 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends. The company will pay a quarterly dividend of $0.70 per share on December 27. All shareholders of record on December 10 will receive the dividend. Buy this Conservative stock up to $202.

SOM Technicals:

11-30-18: Closed at 190.08. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral. Support at 184.15.

12-8-18: Closed at 187.11. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The 25×5 day MA is holding as support.

12-15-18: Closed at 187.54. Trade pressures are up in the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish. Holding support at the 25×5 MA.

 

Fortinet, Inc. (FTNT) is another premium cybersecurity play on the High-Growth Investments Buy List, which is why I’m keeping it on our Top 5 Stock list this month. Fortinet provides unified security solutions that can be deployed over digital networks to protect users against malware, spam and network intrusions. The company provides its security solutions to data centers, enterprises, carriers and distributed offices around the globe. Fortinet currently boasts a portfolio of more than 530 patents worldwide.

Since its founding back in November 2000, the company has experienced a meteoric rise. Over the past 18 years, it has shipped more than four million units of its security solutions. It has built up a base of over 360,000 customers. And since 2002, its revenues have surged from just $2 million to nearly $1.5 billion.

Clearly, the company’s products are in high demand. And FTNT is looking great going forward. For the third quarter, the company brought in $453.9 million in revenue. This represented a 21% increase over Q3 2017.This also beat the $450.9 million consensus estimate. Meanwhile, net income soared 120% year-over-year to $58.7 million, or $0.33 per share. Adjusted earnings came in at $0.49 per share. Analysts were expecting earnings of $0.42 per share, so Fortinet posted a 16.7% earnings surprise.

Looking ahead to FY 2018, Fortinet expects revenue will range between $1.785 billion and $1.795 billion. The company is also targeting adjusted earnings in the range of $1.72 to $1.76 per share. This represents 19.8% to 20.5% annual revenue growth and 65.4% to 69.2% annual earnings growth.

While the stock has pulled back in recent weeks, I believe this is more profit taking than anything else. FTNT remains an excellent cybersecurity play and a strong growth stock. Buy this Moderately Aggressive stock up to $80 per share.

SOM Technicals:

9-29-18: Closed at 92.27. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 99.90.

10-7-18: Closed at 86.10. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish. Support is at 83.83.

10-13-18: Closed at 79.95. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The old upside target of 277.70 could hold support.

10-20-18: Closed at 81.20. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are now bullish. 84.20 signals a new long entry.

10-28-18: Closed at 78.19. Trade pressures are down but showing some divergence. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 76.14.

11-3-18: Closed at 72.56. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish. The 200 day is the next support at 65.28.

11-10-18: Closed at 74.73. Trade pressures are neutral. Volumes are neutral to bearish. Need a close above 79.15 to get going again.

11-17-18: closed at 73.45. Trade pressures are in the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish. At support/ Need the close above 79.16 to resume the move up.

11-24-18: Closed at 67.96. Trade pressures are now down. Volumes are mixed bullish to neutral. At the 200 day MA. Need a  close above 72.11 to resume any move up.

11-30-18: Closed at 73.84. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The 200 day MA was support. the next target up is 77.70.

12-8-18: Closed at 71.61. Trade pressures are up but turning down. Volumes are neutral. At the new long entry of 72.11.

12-15-18: Closed at 72.91. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish. 68.91 is support at the 200 day MA.

 

Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) was added to the Buy List in our November issue, and I like it so much that I’m making it a Top 5 Stock this month. As we discussed last month, the company is a leading supplier of frozen potato and vegetable products. When it comes to frozen potatoes, Lamb Weston is the top supplier in the United States, and the second-largest in the world.

Lamb Weston caught my eye because it’s a strong, predominantly domestic company that’s not adversely impacted by a strong U.S. dollar. Also, Lamb Weston is benefitting from strong restaurant sales—about a third of its revenue comes from the foodservice industry. When it comes to French fries and other potato products, Americans can’t seem to get enough.

Just look at the company’s latest quarterly results. Last quarter, Lamb Weston’s sales climbed 11.9% year-on-year to $914.9 million. Meanwhile, earnings jumped 30.4% year-on-year to $107.8 million, or $0.73 per share. This beat the $0.68 consensus estimate by 7.4%.

And Lamb Weston is expected to keep up the momentum. This quarter, analysts are calling for earnings of $0.72 per share on $897.1 million in revenue. This represents 33.3% annual earnings growth and 8.8% annual sales growth.

As an added bonus, LW has a 1.0% annual dividend yield. Speaking of which, LW paid a $0.191 per share dividend today, November 30. Shareholders of record on November 2 should have received the dividend. Buy this Conservative stock up to $82.

SOM Technicals:

11-30-18: Closed at 76.70. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 73.69. The 200 day MA is 67.40. Need a close above the 25×5 MA at 79.72 to get the uptrend moving again.

12-8-18: Closed at 73.45. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral. Some consolidation here at the 73.69 downside target.

12-15-18: Closed at 75.83. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are neutral. Consolidating after reaching the downside target of 73.89.

 

Lululemon Athletica, Inc.  (LULU) stays on our Top 5 list in anticipation of its upcoming third-quarter earnings report. Over the past two decades, Lululemon has led the athleisure fashion movement. Lululemon has more than 400 stores across four continents. And for workout buffs who are too busy to drive to their nearest store, there are multiple Lululemon e-commerce sites and mobile apps.

Even as it has grown its global footprint and customer base, Lululemon has kept true to its founding values. It differentiates itself by making some of the highest quality and most comfortable workout clothing that money can buy. Meanwhile, it maintains a strong presence in its local communities, offering free workshops and yoga classes in its stores.

Now is a good time to buy LULU on the dip because the company will post third-quarter results on Wednesday, December 5. And it’s shaping up to be an excellent report. The company expects between 16.1% and 19.6% annual earnings growth and between 16.3% and 17.9% annual sales growth. Analysts are even more bullish about the company, forecasting 23.2% annual earnings growth and 18.9% annual sales growth. Given that the consensus estimate has jumped 7.8% in the past 90 days, it’ll likely do even better.

I must also mention that LULU has had a lot of positive analyst attention. On Tuesday, a William Blair analyst maintained her “Outperform” rating ahead of the report due to the company’s strong sales trends, decent execution and strong flow of new products.

So while LULU has pulled back on general market volatility, I consider it an excellent buy on the dip. Buy this Moderately Aggressive stock up to $147 per share.

SOM Technicals:

7-30-18: Closed at 120.00. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. Consolidating at the prior 119.00 target level.

8-4-18: Closed at 126.08. Trade pressures are rising into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. Still in the consolidation zone. Need a close above 130.05 to start a new move up.

8-10-18: Closed at 130.52. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 150.12.

8-18-18: Closed at 130.19. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are neutral. One of the few with an upward bias in August.

8-26-18: Closed at 138.76. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 150.12.

9-1-18: Closed at 154.93. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are neutral. Big earnings surprise puts LULU above the 150.12 target. The next target up is 170.18.

9-8-18: Closed at 150.82. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are neutral. The next target up is 170.18. 

9-15-18: Closed at 153.71. Trade pressures are up and trending. Volumes are neutral. The next target up is 170.18.

9-23-18: Closed at 156.99. Trade pressures are up and trending. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 170.18.

9-29-18: Closed at 162.49. Trade pressures up and trending. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 170.18.

10-7-18: Closed at 153.84. Trade pressures are up but turning down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is the 25×5 moving average at 148.50.

10-13-18: Closed at 143.71. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The initial long entry at 130.05 is the the next support.

10-20-18: closed at 136.77. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. the prior long entry at 130.05 is support.

10-28-18: Closed at 134.82. Trade pressures are down. volumes are bearish. the next target down is 131.02.

11-3-18: Closed at 142.02. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bullish.  144.25 is the new long entry.

11-10-18: Closed at 137.56. Trade pressures are neutral. Volumes are bearish. support at the 133.13 low pivot.

11-17-18: Close at 139.02. Trade pressures are in the neutral zone. Volumes are mixed, bullish to bearish. At support need a close above the 144.35 level to resume the move up.

11-24-18: Closed at 120.86. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral. At the 200 day MA. Need a close above 129.64 to start a new move up.

11-30-18: Closed at 132.55. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. Again a nice bounce off the 200 day MA. This close above 129.64 restarts the move up.

12-8-18: Closed at 113.87. Trade pressures are into neutral zone. Volumes are very bearish. Next target down is 103.91.

12-15-18: Closed at 119.12. Trade pressures are down but showing divergence. Volumes are bearish. At the 200 day MA and holding.

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Copper, gold and silver in a trading range at the lows that reflects the inverse and  topping action in the dollar futures.

Crude has met the 50.55 down side target. Natural gas spiked higher and is now in retracement.

The US 30 year Treasury bonds futures continue the move higher, but at some resistance levels now.

The US Dollar futures are in a small retracement down with the larger uptrend.

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S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – In the move down from the 2726 confirmation level. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes closed the October month as high volume bearish. The next target down is 2603 and then 2368. A close above 2947 would confirm any new weekly mover higher.

Weekly – In the move down from the 2867 short confirmation level. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 2610 which tests the February lows for a second time. A close above 2880 would confirm any new daily move higher.

Daily – Flat. In the move down from the 2737 short entry level. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 2606. There is multiple target levels just below which allows for some expectation of support, but if they fail, then the 2476 downside target comes into play.

A close above 2664 would signal higher.  [11-27-18: Use tight stops @2653.]

[11-28-18: Raise stops to the 25×5 MA @2713. The next target up is 2758.]

[11-29-18: selling at the 2758 target.]

The end of the year selling is higher than expected, perhaps there will be news of some forced selling in the larger hedge funds as redemption requests come in.

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The Navellier TOP 5 – The Major equity averages are now negative for the year. The Navellier Top 5 are just above breakeven; enjoying some small out-performance.

[The author may have long or short positions in any of the securities mentioned.]

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Pressures_

Copper consolidating between 2.60-2.80. Gold triggered a new down move and moved back up to test the 25×5 moving average as resistance. Silver followed the lead of gold down then turned up to rally in the downtrend.

Crude oil is at downside targets and consolidation. Natural Gas is the oil counter-move sharply up and appears to have topped.

US 30 year Treasury Bond futures are in a rally, likely in response to the flow into the dollar and the higher rates than other currencies.

US Dollar futures are taking a pause from the new 2018 highs.

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S&P 500 Futures

Monthly – In the move down. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes close the month of October with high volume and  Bearish. The next target down is 2603. A close above 29.47 is required to confirm any new weekly move up.

Weekly – In the down move from the 2867 short confirmation. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are neutral for the third week. The next target down is 2610, a retest of the 2603 low. A close above the 2880 level would confirm any daily move up.

Daily – The prior week rallied up near the 2824 high pivot and then retreated to the 2700 levels which seem to have held Trade pressures are down but are turning. Volumes are mixed bearish mid week bullish on Thursday and neutral on Friday as the positions were squared up.

Price remains in the move up off the 2661 long entry price. This shorter cycle retracement down has triggered a short which as a 2603 downside target which would test the recent lows.

A break above the 25×5 moving average at 2743 would signal higher.

Part of the current trading problem is the technicals can get overwhelmed by the algorithmic trading. I think if one can realize the algo “piling on effect” that runs trades past expected levels; and use that to “pile on” with them IF and only IF the moves align with the SOM expected levels. Then one can have some success. But the conservative move is to stand aside or, go up time frames and accept the increased volatility.

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Navellier TOP 5 – Held the profit levels around $9000 (on the $125,000 virtual portfolio).  The Navellier ranking system screens and ranks stock picks into A-B-C-D-F categories. The TOP 5 stocks are ranked as A’s and B’s, as one would expect. The probability is they will outperform the averages over time.

_______________________

[The author may have long or short positions in any of the stocks mentioned.]

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Pressures_

Copper had a bear market rally and retreated to the entry price of that move up. Gold had a similar move up and now is looking at a new short entry nearby. Silver is now a short.

Crude has moved to the full downside target. Natural gas has moved to the full upside target.

The US 30 year Treasury Bond has retested the October lows.

The US Dollar Futures are retesting the October highs.

_____________________

S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – In the move down from the 2726 short confirmation level. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of October as bearish. The next target down is 2603. A close above 2947 would confirm any weekly move up.

Weekly – In the move down from the 2867 short confirmation level. Trade pressures are down but turning up. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is a retest of the 2610 level. A close above 2880 is required to confirm any daily move higher.

Daily – Flat. In the move up from the 2661. Trade pressures are up and extended. Volumes are mixed bullish to neutral.

The 2755 target was reached, had one day of pull back and then experienced a sharp election rally to the prior high of 2824.

The next target up is 2849.

A close below 2737 would signal lower once again.

So, the approaching holidays, the aftermath of the Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives, the tariff promises, and the year-end tax selling; all will produce volatility.

If there is that close below 2737, another pull back to the 2700 level would set up a possible head and shoulders bottom. Failing that, a retest of the lows at the 2606 level is next.

[11-12-18: Closed below the 2737 short entry level. Look for price improvement to enter new short. Watch the Dollar Futures.]

___________________________

Navellier TOP 5 – Rallied with the market, but gave back the rally gains with the tech sell off. Still ahead about $9000 on the $125,000 virtual portfolio investment.

[The author may have long or short positions in any of the securities mentioned.]

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Pressures_

Copper technicals succumbed to the market pressures and dropped hard, as did Gold and Silver. But all recovered late in the week after some campaign tariff talk. Hard to see a quick resolution.

Crude oil and Natural gas futures continue their divergence. Crude points lower and Natural gas is near a new long entry.

The US 30 year Treasury Bond Futures broke lower as the metals rallied.

The US Dollar futures have targets lower. Expect some consolidation here.

__________________________

S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – Closed the month down and in a new short confirmation of the lower time frames. Trade pressures are down. Volumes closed the month of October as bearish for the first time in more than 33 months. The next target down is the 2603 low. Need a close above the old 2947 high to confirm any new weekly move up.

Weekly – In the move down from the 2866 short confirmation level. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 2610 and then 2402. Need a close above 2880 to confirm any new daily move up.

Daily – Flat. In a new move up from the 2661 long entry level. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 2755 which was touched during Friday’s 500 pt intraday swing.

The prior short entry was triggered at 2769. That level should provide resistance.

A close below 2695 signals lower once again. Set any stops at this level.

__________________________

Navellier TOP 5.  Still shedding profits at a rapid rate. Now around $7800 up for the year on the initial $125,000 portfolio. A tough October, but earnings projections for all these stocks exceed their benchmarks. So, waiting out the storm is the current strategy.

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Pressures_

Copper is developing a bullish pennant. Gold has had a slow and steady move up but looks extended now. Silver is sideways, maybe one more dip before a move up? Tariff conversations are the key.

Crude Oil futures are in the move down with the equities. Natural gas ran up as the international situation seemed precarious , now in a retracement.

The US 30 Year Treasury Bonds futures are up in a flight to safety.

The US Dollar futures are up sharply, perhaps the same flight to the US markets.

_________________________

S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – In a new move down after the close below the 2726 confirmation. Trade pressures are down near the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of September as bullish. A close above the old high of 2947 would confirm any new weekly move up.

Weekly – In the move down from the 2867 short confirmation. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 2610. A close above the 2806 prior long entry would confirm any daily move higher.

Daily – Flat. In the move down from the 2884 short entry. Trade pressures are down, but showing some divergence. Volumes are bullish at the end of the week; no one wants to be short over the weekend.

The next target down is 2599. With this divergence, be alert for a sharp move up if those targets are met.

A close above 2685 would setup a long retracement trade. Stops will be difficult as they will be far away from the entries. Some times just waiting for less volatility is a good trade.

[10-30-18: the spike down to the 2603 low on 10-29 reset the new long entry price to 2661. Price closed above this level. So, look for a pull back to enter a new long near the entry level.]

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Navellier TOP 5 has fared well over these down days; losing profit, yes. But at $14,000 is still up nicely for the 2018 year; while the S&P 500 is down for the year-to-date. The November TOP 5 is now available, with Progressive (PGR) replacing GrubHub (GRUB).

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[The author may have long or short positions in any of the securities mentioned.]

The following is provided by Navellier with technical comment from South Ocean Management – pls do your own due diligence.

https://navelliergrowth.investorplace.com/

Navellier says,

Fortinet, Inc. (FTNT) claims the top spot on the High-Growth Investments Buy List this month. Fortinet provides unified security solutions that can be deployed over digital networks to protect users against malware, spam and network intrusions. The company provides its security solutions to data centers, enterprises, carriers and distributed offices around the globe. Fortinet currently boasts a portfolio of over 530 patents worldwide.

Since its founding back in November 2000, the company has had a meteoric rise. Over the past 18 years, it has shipped more than four million units of its security solutions. It has built up a base of over 360,000 customers. And since 2002, its revenues have surged from just $2 million to nearly $1.5 billion. Clearly, the company’s products are in high demand.

And FTNT is looking great going forward. For the third quarter, analysts are calling for earnings of $0.42 per share on $450.8 million in revenue. This represents 50% annual earnings growth and 20.5% annual sales growth. Then again, the consensus EPS estimate has jumped 7.1% over the past 90 days. Upward revisions like this are strong predictors of a potential earnings surprise. So, I’m looking forward to Fortinet’s earnings report on November 1.

A few weeks ago, FTNT shareholders got welcome news: It has been added to the S&P 500. Now that FTNT has been added to the S&P 500, funds that track the benchmark index—of which there are many—are forced to buy shares of FTNT. As a Top 5 Stock, FTNT already has strong institutional buying pressure, and this will only help.

 I recommend that you buy this Moderately Aggressive stock up to $85 per share.

SOM Technicals:

9-29-18: Closed at 92.27. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 99.90.

10-7-18: Closed at 86.10. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish. Support is at 83.83.

10-13-18: Closed at 79.95. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The old upside target of 277.70 could hold support.

10-20-18: Closed at 81.20. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are now bullish. 84.20 signals a new long entry.

10-28-18: Closed at 78.19. Trade pressures are down but showing some divergence. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 76.14.

11-3-18: Closed at 72.56. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish. The 200 day is the next support at 65.28.

11-10-18: Closed at 74.73. Trade pressures are neutral. Volumes are neutral to bearish. Need a close above 79.15 to get going again.

11-17-18: closed at 73.45. Trade pressures are in the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish. At support/ Need the close above 79.16 to resume the move up.

11-24-18: Closed at 67.96. Trade pressures are now down. Volumes are mixed bullish to neutral. At the 200 day MA. Need a  close above 72.11 to resume any move up.

 

Lululemon Athletica, Inc. (LULU) returns to the Top 5 list in anticipation of its upcoming third-quarter earnings report. Over the past two decades, Lululemon has led the athleisure fashion movement. Lululemon has more than 400 stores across four continents. And for workout buffs who are too busy to drive to their nearest store, there are multiple Lululemon e-commerce sites and mobile apps.

Even as it has grown its global footprint and customer base, Lululemon has kept true to its founding values. It differentiates itself by making some of the highest quality and most comfortable workout clothing that money can buy. Meanwhile, it maintains a strong presence in its local communities, offering free workshops and yoga classes in its stores.

Now is a good time to buy LULU on the dip because we’re just weeks away from its next earnings announcement. And it’s shaping up to be an excellent report. The company expects between 16.1% and 19.6% annual earnings growth and between 16.3% and 17.9% annual sales growth. Analysts are even more bullish about the company, forecasting 23.2% annual earnings growth and 18.8% annual sales growth. Given that the consensus estimate has jumped 9.5% in the past sixty days, it’ll likely do even better.

I must also mention that LULU has had a lot of positive analyst attention lately. On Wednesday, Canaccord Genuity upgraded it from “Hold” to “Buy” and raised their price target from $152 to $160. A few weeks ago, Wedbush upgraded LULU from “Neutral” to “Outperform” and reiterated their $176 price target. That represents nearly 30% upside from current prices.

So while LULU has pulled back on general market volatility, I consider it an excellent buy on the dip. Buy this Moderately Aggressive stock up to $147 per share.

SOM Technicals:

7-30-18: Closed at 120.00. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. Consolidating at the prior 119.00 target level.

8-4-18: Closed at 126.08. Trade pressures are rising into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. Still in the consolidation zone. Need a close above 130.05 to start a new move up.

8-10-18: Closed at 130.52. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 150.12.

8-18-18: Closed at 130.19. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are neutral. One of the few with an upward bias in August.

8-26-18: Closed at 138.76. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 150.12.

9-1-18: Closed at 154.93. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are neutral. Big earnings surprise puts LULU above the 150.12 target. The next target up is 170.18.

9-8-18: Closed at 150.82. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are neutral. The next target up is 170.18. 

9-15-18: Closed at 153.71. Trade pressures are up and trending. Volumes are neutral. The next target up is 170.18.

9-23-18: Closed at 156.99. Trade pressures are up and trending. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 170.18.

9-29-18: Closed at 162.49. Trade pressures up and trending. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 170.18.

10-7-18: Closed at 153.84. Trade pressures are up but turning down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is the 25×5 moving average at 148.50.

10-13-18: Closed at 143.71. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The initial long entry at 130.05 is the the next support.

10-20-18: closed at 136.77. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. the prior long entry at 130.05 is support.

10-28-18: Closed at 134.82. Trade pressures are down. volumes are bearish. the next target down is 131.02.

11-3-18: Closed at 142.02. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bullish.  144.25 is the new long entry.

11-10-18: Closed at 137.56. Trade pressures are neutral. Volumes are bearish. support at the 133.13 low pivot.

11-17-18: Close at 139.02. Trade pressures are in the neutral zone. Volumes are mixed, bullish to bearish. At support need a close above the 144.35 level to resume the move up.

11-24-18: Closed at 120.86. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral. At the 200 day MA. Need a close above 129.64 to start a new move up.

 

Ecopetrol SA (EC) is one of my favorite energy plays right now. Thanks to a series of strategic acquisitions and oilfield discoveries, Ecopetrol is Colombia’s largest oil company and Latin America’s fourth-largest oil company. With operations in Brazil, Colombia, Peru and the U.S. Gulf Coast, Ecopetrol accounts for 60% of oil production in Colombia.

Last quarter, Ecopetrol achieved “significant operational and financial achievements.” Part of the company’s success was due to its highest production levels in seven quarters. Ecopetrol produced 721,000 barrels of petroleum equivalent per day during the second quarter.

Ecopetrol reported that second-quarter sales increased 29.2% year-over-year to 16.99 trillion Colombian pesos. Net income surged 169.7% year-over-year to 3.52 trillion Colombian pesos (or $1.17 billion). In U.S. dollar terms, earnings came in at $0.60 per ADS. This beat the $0.57 per ADS consensus estimate by 5.3%.

Looking ahead, the company is on track to meet its 2018 production goal of 715,000 to 725,000 barrels per day. So, I’m looking forward to Ecopetrol’s third-quarter announcement, which will be released around November 13. The consensus estimate calls for $0.60 EPS on $6.04 billion in revenue. This represents a whopping 172.7% annual earnings growth and 35.5% annual sales growth.

Then again, Ecopetrol has a history of beating estimates. It has trounced analysts’ expectations for three of the past four quarters. This, plus the fact that the consensus EPS estimate has jumped 7.1% in recent weeks, suggests that Ecopetrol will blow estimates out of the water again.

In the meantime, buy this Aggressive stock up to $26 per share.

SOM Technicals:

6-30-18: Closed at 20.55. Trade pressures are rising into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. Meeting the 25×5 moving average resistance at the 21.03 level. 

7-6-18: Closed at 20.49. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are now bullish. A close above 20.44 would signal higher.

7-14-18: Closed at 20.72. Trade pressures are in the neutral zone. Volumes are mixed neutral and bullish. The next target up is 23.28.

7-20-18: Closed at 20.85. Trade pressures are in the neutral zone. Volumes are now bullish. The next target up is 23.28.

7-29-18: Closed at 20.68. Trade pressures are still in the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish. Consolidating after a new buy signal.

8-4-18: Closed at 21.32. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are now bearish. In the move up off the June lows. The next target up is 23.28.

8-10-18: Closed at 20.90. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish. Now sitting on support.

8-18-18: Closed at 20.49. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.The prior low is 18.68.

8-26-18: Closed at 22.10. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are neutral. The next target up is 23.28.

9-1-18: Closed at 22.60. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 23.28.

9-8-18: Closed at 22.32. Trade pressures are up but turning down. Volumes are mixed, bearish to bullish. The next target up is 23.28.

9-15-18: Closed at 25.14. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are neutral. The next target up is 26.12.

9-23-18: Closed at 24.78. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are neutral. Consolidating at the 26.12 target.

9-29-18: Closed at 26.94. Trade pressures are up and trending. Volumes are bullish. the next target up is 30.72.

10-7-18: Closed at 26.66. Trade pressures are up and trending. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 25.08.

10-13-18: Closed at 25.50. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. The 25×5 at 24.40 is support.

10-20-18: Closed at 25.59. Trade pressures are down slightly. Volumes are bearish. The 25×5 support is holding at 24.74.

10-28-18: Closed at 23.59. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 20.42.

11-3-18: Closed at 21.57. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. the next target down is 20.42.

11-10-18: closed at 21.29, Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. At the 25×5 moving average support.

11-17-18: Closed at 20.62. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. At the 20.42 downside target and the 200 day moving average.

11-24-18: Closed at 18.69. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. Following crude down. Testing the June low 

 

Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) is another familiar name on the Top 5 list. Burlington is a fixture in shopping centers across the country. Stepping through one of its 630 Burlington Coat Factory locations is an experience. There are racks of apparel, footwear, accessories, household products and beauty products as far as the eye can see. Everything is neatly laid out, including women’s, men’s, youth and baby departments.

While many department stores are downsizing and cost cutting, Burlington Stores is thriving. That’s because it offers shoppers high-quality, name-brand merchandise at unbeatable prices. Of course, every store claims to do that, but Burlington Stores actually delivers through its off-price model.

So Burlington is doing better than ever, as demonstrated by Burlington’s outlook for FY 2018. Burlington expects total sales will grow between 10.1% and 10.6%. It expects adjusted earnings in a range of $6.13 to $6.20 per share, or between 40.3% and 41.9% annual earnings growth. There aren’t too many retailers that can claim double-digit sales and earnings growth.

In the meantime, Burlington Stores is expected to report third-quarter sales and earnings in late November. Analysts are calling for earnings of $1.06 per share on $1.61 billion in revenue. This represents 51.4% annual earnings growth and 11.7% annual sales growth. Burlington Stores also has a strong track record of earnings surprises.

I expect big things from Burlington this earnings season. Buy this Conservative stock up to $182 per share.

SOM Technicals:

9-29-18: Closed at 162.93. Trade pressures are down but rising into the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral. Need a close above 168.90 to signal higher.

10-7-18: Closed at 152.34. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 145.70.

10-13-18: Closed at 155.48. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are now bullish. The next target up is the 25×5 resistance at 162.62.

10-20-18: Closed at 155.35. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. 162.62 is now the new long entry.

10-28-18: Closed at 170.82. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. Ripped thru the new long entry; the next target up is 175.48.

11-3-18: Closed at 173.19. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. the next target up is 180.99.

11-10-18: Closed at 172.12. Trade pressures are up and rolling over. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 180.99.

11-17-18: Closed at 161.75. Trade pressures are up but have turned down. Volumes are Bearish. At the 25×5 moving average support line and the 162.62 long entry level.

11-24-18: Closed at 148.32. Trade pressures are now down. Volumes are bearish. At the 200 Day MA. The next target down is 135.90.

 

The Progressive Corp. (PGR) joins the Top 5 list after just one month on the Buy List. That’s because this insurance stock has shown remarkable strength amidst the market volatility. Progressive is one the largest providers of auto insurance in the U.S. Founded in 1937, Progressive has always taken an innovative approach to auto insurance. It offered drive-in claims service before anyone else. And it also allowed its customers to pay their premiums in installments before anyone else.

Along with cars, Progressive also provides insurance for motorcycles, boats, RVs, commercial vehicles, Segways and homes. It has been hugely successful with “Flo” and its advertising campaign, building goodwill with its customers and expanding into other lucrative insurance categories.

Last Tuesday, PGR rallied after it beat expectations for the third quarter. Last quarter, net premiums written jumped 20% year-on-year to $8.6 billion. Analysts were expecting $8.41 billion in net premiums written, so Progressive posted a 2.3% surprise. Over the same period, earnings per share surged 311% to $1.57. This smashed the $1.12 consensus EPS estimate by 40.2%.

Investors cheered these results, so PGR rallied after the announcement. With its top-notch fundamentals and 1.7% dividend yield, PGR rounds out our Top 5 list for the month. Buy this Conservative stock up to $73 per share.

SOM Technicals:

10-28-18: Closed at 68.10 Trade pressures are in the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is the 66.64 support line.

11-3-18: Closed at 69.58. Trade pressures are in the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral. Support seems to hold at 66.64.

11-10-18: Closed at 73.18. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. At the 73.85 upside target.

11-17-18: Closed at 66.33. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral, buyers equal sellers. Support is at the 200 day moving average at 63.08.

11-24-18: Closed at 62.95. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. At the 200 Day MA. Need a close above 66.56 to start anew move up.