Category: Currencies

US $$

USD_ DXU16

Weekly – rising to the top of the downtrend. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are stuck in Neutral.

Daily – In the uptrend. Consolidating at the the 96 level. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are bullish.

Likely to be a safe haven trade this next week while the Turkish coup attempt resolves itself.

[7-20-16: next target up is 97.74.]

 

30YR T-BONDS_ USU16

Weekly – After reaching the 177-11 high, price has retraced to the prior upside target of 171-26. Trade pressures are up. Volumes have changed from bullish to bearish.

Daily – Short. Down from the 175-05 short entry. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 171-04.

Lower stops to the 175-05 short entry price.

[7/20/16: lower stops to 172-22.]

US $$

USD_ DXU16

Weekly – Still in downtrend. Trade pressures are up. Volumes have changed to neutral.

Daily – In the uptrend but consolidating after the sharp move up. Trade pressures are up and trending. Volumes are bullish.

A close below 95.28 would signal lower.

 

30YR T-BONDS_  USU16

Weekly – Another contract high of 177-09. Trade pressures are up. Volumes mixed neutral to bullish.

Daily –  Flat. Wide ranging days continue. Trade pressures are up but diverging. Volumes are bullish.

A close below 175-03 would signal lower.

 

 

US $$

USD_ DXU16

Weekly – Remains in the downtrend post BREXIT. Trade pressures re up. Volumes are neutral.

Daily – The sharp rally on the 24th put the US Dollar futures in a new uptrend with targets at 95.54 and 97.10. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes have changed from bullish to neutral.

Looking for consolidation here at the 95 level.

 

30 YR T-BONDS_ USU16

Weekly – Have traded thru the 171-28 weekly target to a new high of 175-11. Trade pressures are up. Volumes have changed from bullish to neutral.

Daily – Flat. In distribution all week. Trade pressures are up but showing divergence with a lower high. Volumes Neutral to bearish.

A close below173-05 would signal lower.

US $$

USD_ DXU16

Weekly – The US Dollar futures have settled into the 92-95 channel. Trade pressures are up. Volumes have changed to bullish.

Daily – In a new up move with the trade thru the 94.04. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes have changed to bullish. The next target up is 97.10.

A close below 95.09 would signal lower.

 

30 YR US Treasury Bond_ USU16

Weekly – Traded up thru and closed below the 171-26 upside target. Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Flat. Spiked up thru the 173-02 upside target and closed well below that target. Trade pressures have declined to neutral. Volumes have changed from bearish to bullish.

The 171-19 short entry level was triggered with the pull back from the spike. But need to wait for a few days to see the direction.

US $$

USD_ DXU16

Weekly – All about the BREXIT. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are still neutral.

Daily – In a short term down trend. Trade pressures are up but turning down. Volumes are still bearish.

Need a close above 95.52 to change the trend.

 

US 30YR T-Bonds_ USU16

Weekly – Rallied to near the 171-28 upside profit target. Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Flat. The spike high was 171-07. Trade pressures are up and extended. Volumes have changed from bearish to neutral.

The intraday move is up. The next target up is 173-02.

A close below 169-01 would signal lower. (But do we want to short ahead of the BREXIT vote?)

US $$

USD_ DXM16

Weekly – The attempted move up stalled last week. Trade pressures are down into the neutral area. Volumes ahve changed from bearish to neutral.

Daily – Moved back into the down trend with a close below 93.95. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bullish.

The 25×5 moving average at 94.63 would offer resistance to this two day retracement move up.

 

30YR T-BONDS_ USU16

Weekly – Another rally week. Trade pressures have risen into the Neutral zone. Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Flat. Missed this trade. Trade pressures are up and fully extended. Volumes remain bullish.

The next target up is 169.23.

Stops at 165-21.

A close below 166-24 would signal lower.

US $$

USD_ DXM16

Weekly – In the long downtrend. Trade pressures are up. Volumes have turned to bearish.

Daily – In the move up from the 93.48 entry. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes have changed to bearish.

The 96.06 target was met and a retracement was almost immediate.

A close below 93.91 (almost there) is the new short entry.

 

30YR T-BONDS_ USU16

Weekly – Big rally. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes have changed to bullish.

Daily – Flat. Trade pressures are up. Volumes changed to bullish in the week before the jobs announcement.

In a move up from a 161-05 long entry off the May low.

At the 165-27 target. The next target up is 169-23.

A close below 164-22 would signal lower.

US $$

USD_ DXM16

Weekly – In the down trend but retracing upward. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. A Close below 161-13 would confirm the daily short.

Daily – In the move up from 93.48. Trade pressures are up and extended. Volumes are changing from bearish to bullish.

The next targets up are 96.06 and 96.28.

A close below 94.01 would signal a new downtrend.

 

US 30YR T-BOND_ USU16

Weekly – In the uptrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes have changed from Bearish to Bullish.

Daily – Flat. In the short trade from 163-17. Trade pressures are down but rising to the neutral zone. Volumes remain bearish.

Confusion. Hourly is very over-sold.

Wait.

US$$

USD_ DXM16

Weekly – The third week of the move up off the 93.00 low. Trade pressures are rising thru neutral. Volumes have changed to bullish.

Daily – In the move up from the 93.48 level. Trade pressures are up but extended. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 96.66.

The trend would change to down with a close below 94.20.

 

US 30YR T-BONDS_ USM16

Weekly – 5 of 7 weeks have tested the 167-06 level. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes have changed to bearish.

Daily – Flat. The short entry price of 164-29 was triggered mid-week as the FED jawboned the funds rate up. Trade pressures are down and passing thru neutral. Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 161-21.

The stop will be the 166-29 high pivot.

The HYG ETF is rising, so may see some retracement up in the 30yr here.

US $$’s

USD_ DXM16

Weekly – The 93.00 level is acting as support. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes have changed from bullish to neutral.

Daily – In the move up from the 93.48 level. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 96.04.

 

30YR T-BONDS_ USM16

Weekly – In a move down, but retracing upward to the April highs of 167-06. Trade pressures are down but with a hook up.

Volumes are mixed, neutral to bullish.  This is pricing the 30 year yield at 2.55%?

Daily – Flat. The move up has stopped out any short trades. Trade pressures are up and extended. Volumes are bullish.

This short cycle move up has an upside target of 167-07.

A close below 164-26 would signal a move lower.