Author: ChasW

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Summary:

Copper long re-entry at 4.07.  Gold rally fails. Silver in a sideways channel.

Crude breaks out but near OB.  Natural Gas down hard after the spike up.

The US 30yr Treasury Bond at target lows. The 10yr yields rise to 4.60%, near the 4.65% overbought expectations.

The US Dollar breaks higher still, needs to back test the breakout.

_________________

S&P 500 Futures   #ESH25

Monthly –Monthly bar closes higher. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of December as bullish.  The 6181 price remains the high. The next target up is 6633.  A break below 5870, which has been touched, would confirm any weekly move lower. The next target down then would be 5523.

Weekly – The weekly has a small retracement.  Trade pressures remain up but declining. Volumes remain bearish.  The 6181 upside target was met.  The close below 6040 has confirmed the daily move lower. The next target down is 5834 and was almost met.

Daily – Flat. Down for the week but a rally on Friday helps the bulls. Trade pressures are now down.  Volumes are bearish.
The next target down remains 5809.
A close above the trendline at 5995, with a trade pressure shift, signals higher. Then the next target up would be 6134.

The expected oversold level declines to 5815.
The expected overbought level declines to 6074.

[1-6-25: opened up in the Monday premarket, long at 5996. SL 5987.]

[1-6-25 pm: raise SL to BE 5996.]

1-7-25: Stopped out for no gain.]

___________________

Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is marked to the market and is restarted at $100,000 for the 2024 year.

These Navellier Top 5 portfolio stocks closed:
Down 35% for the 2022 Year.
Up 17% for the 2023 Year.
Up 42% for the 2024 Year.

Portfolio stock values for 2025. 
The portfolio value rises at $103,000.
The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is  up 3%.

[The author may be long or short any of these issues mentioned],

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXH25

Weekly –  In the October 2024 uptrend.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – Flat. Lower highs turned higher. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are now bullish.

Broke thru the June resistance line. The expected overbought level rises to 109.25.

A close below 107.96 would signal lower. The expected oversold levels rise to 107.25.

 

US30YR T-BOND_ USH25

Weekly – In a new October 2024 downtrend.  Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are neutral.

Daily  – Flat. In the  move down from the 119-17 close on 12/09. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone.  Volumes remain bearish.

At the downside target range of 113-10. Oversold levels are 113-09.

A close above 114-17 would signal higher. Overbought levels are 116-25

[The 10yr yield overbought level declines to 4.65%.
Higher inflation expectations continue thru 1Q25 and 2Q25.]

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLG25

Weekly – In the September 2024 downtrend. Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Flat. In the move up from 71.50 on 12/30.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

The close above 71.50 did signal higher and closed at 73.96. The next target up is 75.02. The expected overbought levels rise to 73.92.

The next target down is 67.63. The expected oversold level rises to 69.26.

 

NAT GAS_ NGG25

Weekly – Broke thru the July 2024 downtrend. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Flat.  Retracing the spike up and closing the gap. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are bearish.

In the retracement down from 3.93. Support should be at 3.18, the Oct median line. The expected oversold level rises to 3.34.

Need a close above 3.60 to restart the move up. The expected overbought level rises to 4.00.

 

 

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGH25

Weekly – In the September 2024 uptrend; holding support. Trade pressures are rising just below the neutral zone. Volumes are now bearish.

Daily – Long. Stopped out at the 4.10 level but re-enter at 4.07. Trade pressures are down but rising.  Volumes are now bullish.

New long at 4.07 (1/5). The next target up is 4.13. The expected overbought levels decline 4.19.

A close below 4.02 would signal lower. The expected oversold levels decline to 3.97.

[1-6-25: At the OB levels. Take profits at 4.18. Look for a retracement toward the OS to re-enter.]

 

GOLD_ GCG25

Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend.  Trade pressures are down.  Volumes remain neutral.

Daily – Flat. The 2600 target is support in this downside move. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are now neutral.

A close below 2639 would signal lower. The next target down remains 2501. The expected oversold level rises to 2599.

A close above 2681 would signal higher. But the OB is too close, so no trade. The expected overbought level declines to 2674.

 

SILVER_ SIH25

Weekly – Still in the December 2023 uptrend and testing the 28.00 support. Trade pressures are down off the neural zone.  Volumes remain neutral.

Daily – Flat. Still in the move up after touching the May Median Line, downside support at 29.36. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain neutral.

Trading in between the down sloping June median line and the 200 day MA at 30.65. The oversold levels are 29.36.

Need a close above 30.65 to signal higher. Overbought levels are 31.14.

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Summary:

Copper attempts higher, after retesting the 4.08 support.  Gold testing the broken support support. Silver moves up to test the 200 day MA, fails.

Crude needs to break out of the upper bound of the October channel.  Natural Gas still in the move up.

The US 30yr Treasury Bond at target lows. The 10yr yields rise to 4.62%, near the 4.70% overbought expectations.

The US Dollar still neutral.

_________________

S&P 500 Futures   #ESH25

Monthly –Monthly bar closes lower. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of November as bullish.  The 6181 price was the high. The next target up is 6633.  A break below 5870 would confirm any weekly move lower. The next target down then would be 5523.

Weekly – The weekly has a small retracement.  Trade pressures remain up but declining. Volumes remain bearish.  The 6181 upside target was met.  The close below 6040 has confirmed the daily move lower. The next target down is 5834.

Daily – Short. After the drop through the short entry at 6030 price rises to back test the breakdown at 6085. Trade pressures are entering the neutral zone.  Volumes are neutral.
The next target down remains 5809.
A close above 6085 still signals higher and then the next target up would be 6330.

The expected oversold level rises to 5846.
The expected overbought level declines to 6145.

[re-enter the short on a move higher to the 6085 level.]
___________________

Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is marked to the market and is restarted at $100,000 for the 2024 year.

These Navellier Top 5 portfolio stocks closed:
Down 35% for the 2022 Year.
Up 17% for the 2023 Year.
Up 42% for the 2024 Year.

Portfolio stock values for 2024. 
The portfolio value holds at $142,000.
The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is  up 42%.

[The author may be long or short any of these issues mentioned],

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXH25

Weekly –  In the new October 2024 uptrend.  Trade pressures remain up. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – Flat. Turned down at resistance (108.27) and now showing lower highs. Trade pressures are up but declining.  Volumes are now neutral.

The next target up is 108.24. The expected overbought level rises to 108.90.

A close below 106.89 would signal lower. The expected oversold levels rise to 106.57.

 

US30YR T-BOND_ USH25

Weekly – In a new October 2024 downtrend.  Trade pressures decline into the neutral zone.  Volumes are bearish.

Daily  – Flat. In the  move down from the 119-17 close on 12/09. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are bearish.

At the downside target range of 113-09. Oversold levels are 113-09.

A close above 114-18 would signal higher. Overbought levels are 116-20

[The 10yr yield overbought level rises to 4.70%.
Higher inflation expectations continue thru 1Q25 and 2Q25.]

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLG25

Weekly – In the September 2024 downtrend. Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Short. In the move down from 70.23 on 12-17.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

The next target down is 67.63. The expected oversold level rises to 68.61.

A close above 71.50 would signal higher . The expected overbought levels decline to 71.18.

[Use 71.50 as the SL.]

[12-30-24: Stopped out of short at 71.50]

 

NAT GAS_ NGG25

Weekly – Remains in the July 2024 downtrend. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Flat.  In the  move up off the October Median Line on 12/17 at 2.80 to high of 3.54. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 3.49. The expected overbought level rises to 3.75.

A close below 3.27 would signal lower. The expected oversold level declines to 3.10.

[Take profits on any move to the prior high at 3.54.]

[12-30-24: gapped up at the open to 3.657. Profit stop hit.]

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGH25

Weekly – In the September 2024 uptrend; at support. Trade pressures are rising into the neutral zone. Volumes are now neutral.

Daily – Long. 4.08 support holds. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain bearish.

Long at 4.13. The next target up is 4.19. The expected overbought levels decline 4.23.

A close below 4.10 would signal lower. The expected oversold levels decline to 4.02.

[Set the SL at 4.10.]

[12-30-24: Stopped out at 4.10]

 

GOLD_ GCG25

Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend.  Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are now neutral.

Daily – Flat. Met the the 2600 target in this downside move. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are now neutral.

Moving up off the 2600 downside target. The next target down remains 2501. The expected oversold level rises to 2587.

A close above 2652 would signal higher. The expected overbought level rises to 2690.

 

SILVER_ SIH25

Weekly – Still in the December 2023 uptrend and testing support at 28.00. Trade pressures are down off the neural zone.  Volumes are neutral.

Daily – Flat. In the move up after touching the May Median Line downside support at 29.36. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are now neutral.

Rejected at 30.59, the 200 day MA. The oversold levels are 29.10.

Need a close above 30.42 to signal higher. Overbought levels are 31.59.

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Summary:

Copper attempted higher, still retesting the 4.00 support.  Gold fails to hold support. Silver lower as well.

Crude at the upper bound of the October channel.  Natural Gas in a new move up.

The US 30yr Treasury Bond at target lows. The 10yr yields rise to 4.59%, near the 4.61% overbought expectations.

The US Dollar now neutral.

_________________

S&P 500 Futures   #ESH25

Monthly –Monthly bar closes lower. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of November as bullish.  The 6161 price was the high. The next target up is 6602.  A break below 5870 would confirm any weekly move lower. The next target down then would be 5523.

Weekly – The weekly has a lower close.  Trade pressures remain up but declining. Volumes are bearish.  The 6127 upside target was met.  The close below 6040 has confirmed the daily move lower. The next target down is 5834.

Daily – Short. Sharp drop through the short entry at 6030. Trade pressures are up but declining sharply to the neutral zone.  Volumes are bearish.
The next target down is 5809.
A close above 6085 would signal higher and then the next target up would be 6330.
The expected oversold level declines to 5802.
The expected overbought level rises to 6153.

[set the SL to 6030.]

[12-24-24: stopped out at the short entry, 6030.]
___________________

Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is marked to the market and is restarted at $100,000 for the 2024 year.

These Navellier Top 5 portfolio stocks closed:
down 35% for the 2022 Year.
up 17% for the 2023 Year.

Portfolio stock values for 2024. 
The portfolio value declines to $142,000.
The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is  up 42%.

Guidewire Software (GWRE) will be replaced with Carpenter Technology (CRS) on the next business day.

[The author may be long or short any of these issues mentioned],

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXH25

Weekly –  In the new October 2024 uptrend.  Trade pressures remain up but are turning down. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – Flat. Turned down at resistance (108.27) Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bearish.

The next target up is 108.29. The expected overbought level rises to 108.50.

A close below 106.98 would signal lower. The expected oversold levels rise to 106.33.

 

US30YR T-BOND_ USH25

Weekly – In a new October 2024 downtrend.  Trade pressures decline into the neutral zone.  Volumes are bearish.

Daily  – Flat. In the  move down from the 119-17 close on 12/09. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are bearish.

At the downside target range of 113-17. Oversold levels are 113-16.

A close above 115-05 would signal higher. Overbought levels are 115-20

[The 10yr yield overbought level rises to 4.61%.
Higher inflation expectations continue thru 1Q25 and 2Q25.]