Author: ChasW

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGU24

Weekly – Still in the December 2023 uptrend but now testing support. Trade pressures are down just below the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Flat. The move up has failed  Trade pressures are down. Volumes remain bearish.

Decisive break below 4.49 sends price to the 4.26 downside target. The expected oversold levels have declined to 4.25.

A close above 4.32 would signal higher.  The expected overbought levels have declined to 4.70.

[7-31-24: Long. Breaks out of the downward channel at 4.18.]

[8-1-24: sell long at 4.01]

GOLD_ GCQ24

Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend.  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Flat. Crashed down thru the short entry price at 2445, as the US Dollar breaks the downtrend and turns up.  Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are now bearish.

The next target down is 2381. The expected oversold level has risen to 2384.

The next target up is 2467. The expected overbought level has risen to 2495.

 

SILVER_ SIU24

Weekly – Still in the December 2023 uptrend, but turning down.  Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are bearish.

Daily –Flat. Breaks down below the trendline support at 30.53.  Trade pressures down.  Volumes are now neutral.

The next target down is 28.36. Oversold levels are 28.36.

A close above 29.83 would signal higher.  Overbought levels are 30.85.

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Summary:

The 10yr yields decline. Copper in a small bull flag, looking for the breakout.  Gold moves up sharply on interest rate cut expectations.  Silver selling off; support rises to the low 30’s.

Crude makes lower high, turning down.  Natural gas continues the move down.

The US 30yr Treasury Bond breaks above the upper median line at 118-30. The 10yr yield turns down.

The US Dollar futures  continues lower, now at the 200 day MA.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESU24

Monthly –Consolidation at 5500 was short lived, still pushing higher. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of June as bullish.  The next target up remains 5958.  A close below 5397 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly close above the UML signals upside strength.  Trade pressures remain up.  Volumes remain bullish.  Touched the 5704 upside target and pulled back.  A close below 5575 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat.  At 5667, which is the third touch of the upper channel resistance. A break above this upside resistance would be a sign of strength of the bullish trend (fuel / dollar inflows), but a correction would be more healthy. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bullish.  Met the 5704 target. The expected overbought level has risen to 5662.  A close below the 5622 target would signal lower.  The expected oversold level rises to 5464.

GDP growth is expected to decline marginally. So, looking for companies with growth to counter the slowdown. Defensive sectors will benefit.

[Trend is at 5622. Support is at 5513]

A look at he other indices show the Russell 2000 rising, the S&P 500 selling, the Nasdaq selling, and the DOW 30 rising. This is more indicative of $’s moving to beneficiaries of interest rate cuts.  Don’t expect a large general market decline, but a reallocation out of the companies/sectors that have had huge moves up.

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Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is marked to the market and is restarted at $100,000 for the 2024 year.

The Navellier portfolio stocks closed down 35% for the 2022 Year.  The Navellier portfolio stocks closed up 17% for the 2023 Year.

Portfolio stock values for 2024.  The portfolio moved up to $133,000. The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is now up 33%.

[The author may be long or short any of these issues mentioned]

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXU24

Weekly –  Remains in the April 2024 uptrend.  Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Short. Closed below the 105.07 support .  Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 103.60.  The expected oversold levels decline to 104.10.

A close above 104.09 would signal higher. The higher expected overbought level is 105.53.

 

US30YR T-BOND_ USU24

Weekly – In the April 2024 downtrend.  Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone.  Volumes are now bullish.

Daily  – Long. Closed above the March UML at 118-27 on 7/11.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

The close above the 200 day MA at 117-19 started a new move up. Overbought levels are 120-28.

A close below 119-09 would signal lower. Oversold levels are 116-11.

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLU24

Weekly – In the March 2024 uptrend and above support. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are now neutral.

Daily – Flat. The move up stopped at 83.56 which was a lower high.   Trade pressures have returned to – up.  Volumes are now neutral.

Very near a close below 80.54 which would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 80.74 (support).

A close back above 81.89 would signal higher. The expected overbought levels are now higher at 84.33.

 

NAT GAS_ NGQ24

Weekly – In the April 2024 uptrend.  Trade pressures remain  down.  Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Flat.  time moves price across the 6/25 downtrend line. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes remain bearish.

The next target down is 2.21. The expected oversold level declines to 2.17.

A close above 2.39 would signal higher.  The expected overbought level declines to 2.58.

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGU24

Weekly – Still in the December 2023 uptrend. Trade pressures are rising just above the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral.

Daily – Flat. In the new move up from from 4.58.  Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bullish.

Move up not confirmed by the daily. looking for dips to test the LML at 4.42.  The expected oversold levels have risen to 4.35.

A second close above 4.58 would signal higher.  The expected overbought levels have risen to 4.73.

 

GOLD_ GCQ24

Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend.  Trade pressures are now up.  Volumes are bullish.

Daily – Flat. testing the top of the bull flag at 2420.  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain bullish.

The next target up is 2467. The expected overbought level has risen to 2432.

A close below 2389 would signal lower. The expected oversold level has risen to 2337.

 

SILVER_ SIU24

Weekly – Still in the December 2023 uptrend.  Trade pressures remain in the neutral zone.  Volumes remain  bullish.

Daily –Flat. In a correction down to 30.62. Trade pressures are up, but declining.  Volumes are now bearish.

Possible lower high. The next target down is 29.85. Oversold levels are 29.61.

A close above 31.30 would signal higher.  Overbought levels are 33.12.

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Summary:

The 10yr yields rise. Copper makes a move up off the oversold levels, now near overbought.  Gold moves up late in the week after reaching oversold.  Silver moving up again; support rises to the low 29’s.

Crude turning down.  Natural gas continues the move down.

The US 30yr Treasury Bond turned up mid week. The 10yr yield turns down.

The US Dollar futures lower high signaled lower and quickly at the downside target.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESU24

Monthly –Price showing signs of consolidation above 5500, however, still pushing higher. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of June as bullish.  The next target up is 5958.  A close below 5315 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly now has a higher high for the weekly close.  Trade pressures remain up.  Volumes remain bullish.  Closed on the highs of the week at 5621.  A close below 5488 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat.  At 5615, and the upper parallel, so some resistance is likely. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bullish.  The next target up is 5704. The expected overbought level has risen to 5559; again below the actual highs.  A close below the 5584 target would signal lower.  The expected oversold level rises to 5430,

[Support is at 5584.]

___________________

Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is marked to the market and is restarted at $100,000 for the 2024 year.

The Navellier portfolio stocks closed down 35% for the 2022 Year.  The Navellier portfolio stocks closed up 17% for the 2023 Year.

Portfolio stock values for 2024.  The portfolio moved up to $131,000. The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is now up 31%.

[The author may be long or short any of these issues mentioned]

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXU24

Weekly –  Remains in the April 2024 uptrend.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Short. Closed below the 105.07 support .  Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 104.00.  The expected oversold levels decline to 104.79.

A close above 104.90 would signal higher. The higher expected overbought level is 105.71.

 

US30YR T-BOND_ USU24

Weekly – In the April 2024 downtrend.  Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone.  Volumes are now bearish.

Daily  – Flat. Moved down to trendline support at 115-30 and rallied from there.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain neutral.

The close above the 200 day MA at 117-19 started a new move up. Overbought levels are 118-26.

A close below 117-24 would signal lower. Oversold levels are 116-21.

 

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLU24

Weekly – In the March 2024 uptrend and at support. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – Flat. Still in the move up from the 78.78 long entry on 6/17.   Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 85.96. The expected overbought levels are now higher at 84.32.

Very near to a close below 83.49 which would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 80.14.

 

NAT GAS_ NGQ24

Weekly – In the April 2024 uptrend.  Trade pressures remain  down.  Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Flat.  Breaks further down below the downward channel. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes remain bearish.

The next target down is 2.21. The expected oversold level rises to 2.35.

A close above 2.47 would signal higher.  The expected overbought level declines to 2.90.

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGU24

Weekly – Still in the December 2023 uptrend. Trade pressures are rising to the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – Long. In the move up from from 4.40.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

Got the long entry at 4.40. The next target up is 4.71. The expected overbought levels have risen to 4.64.

Need a close below 4.41 for a new short entry. The expected oversold levels have risen to 4.34.

[7-1-24: Long the HGU24 at 4.40. Set the SL at 4.38.]

[7-2-24: Raise the SL to 4.40.]

[7-5-24: Raise the SL to 4.60.]

[7-8-24: Stopped out overnight at the 4.60 level.]

 

GOLD_ GCQ24

Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend.  Trade pressures are down, but rising.  Volumes are bullish.

Daily – Flat. Broke out to the upside after a move above the January Median Line at 2350.  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bullish.

Rallied to the 2390 level into the weekend. The next target up is 2414. The expected overbought level has risen to 2380, so some conflict here.

A close below 2380 would signal lower. The expected oversold level has risen to 2313.

 

SILVER_ SIU24

Weekly – Still in the December 2023 uptrend.  Trade pressures remain in the neutral zone.  Volumes are  bullish.

Daily –Long. In the move up from the 29.51 break on 7/1. Trade pressures are up  Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 33.37.  Overbought levels are 33.17.

A close below 30.90 would signal lower.  Oversold levels are 29.61.

 

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Summary:

The 10yr yields rise. Copper oversold.  Gold moves up late in the week after reaching oversold.  Silver moving up again; support rises to the low 29’s.

Crude meeting resistance.  Natural continues the move down.

The US 30yr Treasury Bond turned down mid week. The 10yr yield support levels moving up slowly.

The US Dollar futures now at price target; but other currencies under stress.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESU24

Monthly –Price showing signs of consolidation above 5500. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of June as bullish.  The next target up is 5958.  A close below 5277 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly has lower high for the weekly close.  Trade pressures remain up.  Volumes remain bullish.  Touched the 5585 target up but closed lower.  A close below 5277 would confirm daily move lower.

Daily – Flat.  The 5575 area finds resistance. Trade pressures are up but turning down.  Volumes remain bearish.  The expected overbought level has declined to 5509; again below the actual highs. The next target down is 5447. A close below the 5447 target also signals lower.  The expected oversold level rises to 5421,

Expect support of the lower bound of the parallel channel from the April low near 5437 .

[7-1-24: Short ESU24 at 5527.] [Set SL at entry price.] [Stopped out of the short intra day.]

___________________

Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is marked to the market and is restarted at $100,000 for the 2024 year.

The Navellier portfolio stocks closed down 35% for the 2022 Year.  The Navellier portfolio stocks closed up 17% for the 2023 Year.

Portfolio stock values for 2024.  The portfolio held values around  $129,000. The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is now up 29%.

Nutanix (NTNX) is replaced by Eli Lilly (LLY) at the next open.