Author: ChasW

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXH22

Weekly –  In the March 2021 uptrend. Trade pressures are neutral. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – In the move down from the 96.45 short entry. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 94.99 with support at 94.80.

A close above 95.85 would resume the move up.

 

US 30YR T-BOND_ USH22

Weekly – In the January 2022 downtrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Short. In the move down from the 162-08 short entry. Trade pressures are down. Volum es are bearish.

The long attempt last week failed with a stop out at 153-03. The next target down is 150-19.

A close above 153-24 would signal higher.

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLM22

Weekly – In the new Jan 2022 uptrend. trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – In the move yup from the 66.15 long entry on Dec 6, 2021. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 91.75.

A close below 83.94 would signal lower.

 

NAT GAS_ NGH22

Weekly – In this volatile uptrend from June 2021. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bearish. Support has held at the 3.27 level.

Daily –  Short. After the January move up, now in the new move down from 4.79. Trade pressures are now down. Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 4.01.

A close above 4.93 would signal higher.

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGH22

Weekly – Remains in the June 2020 uptrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now bullish.

Daily – Flat. The close above 4.33 stopped out the short trade. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

The next target down is 4.24.

A pullback to the 4.40 support level would be a re-entry into the long trade.

 

GOLD_ GCM22

Weekly – In the June 2021 downtrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Flat. In the move down from the 1827 short entry. Trade pressures are now up. Volumes are bullish.

The next target down is 1779.

A close above the 25×5 MA at 1819 would signal higher.

 

SILVER_ SIH22

Weekly – In the August 2021 downtrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Flat. In the move down from the 23.78 short entry. Trade pressures are bearish but rising. Volumes are neutral.

The next target down is 20.63.

A close above 22.65 would signal higher.

 

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Pressures:

Copper has begun a new move down. Gold and Silver are retracing from the 200 day resistance levels.

Crude oil is reaching for 90, but showing some divergences. Natural gas is breaking out of the 3.50 consolidation.

The US 30 year Treasury bond is in a new move up.

The US Dollar futures are in a new move up.

______________________

S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – 22 months of a rising market since the Pandemic sell-off. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes closed the month of December as bullish. The next target up remains 5018. A close below 3252 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – Still in the move up from the November 2020 entry at 3499. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are now bullish. The next target down is 4202. A close above 4596 would confirm any Daily move higher.

Daily – Flat. Completed the move down from 4720 to the extended target at 4207. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now neutral suggesting some accumulation. The next target down is 4148. The close above 4343 on Friday signals higher. Wide ranging days increase the trading risk dramatically. Go down time frames and trade breakouts with proper stops so the momentum is in your favor.

____________________

Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is marked to the market and is restarted at $100,000 for the 2022 year.

The portfolio stocks closed up 39% for the 2021 Year.  This last week in 2022 was down hard to approximately $82,000. The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is now down 18%.

Endava Plc (DAVA) and Crocs Inc. (CROX) will be replaced by Fortinet (FTNT) and TFII International, Inc. (TFII) at the open on Monday.

[The author may have long or short positions in any of the securities mentioned.]

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXH22

Weekly – In the March 2021 uptrend. Trade pressures are rising in the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – In the move up from January retracement of the longer move up from mid June of 2021. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 98.27.

A close below 96.97 would signal lower.

 

US 30YR T-BOND_ USH22

Weekly – In the January 2022 downtrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now neutral.

Daily – Long, in the new move up from the 155-14 entry. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are now neutral.

The next target up is 157-21. Take this as profit as the weekly trade pressure is still down.

A close below 153-07 would be the SL.

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLM22

Weekly – Moving up inside the Dec 2021 downtrend. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – Long. In the move up from the Dec 20 entry at 66.15. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bearish.

The next target up is 90.19.

A close below 80.92 would signal lower.

 

NAT GAS_ NGH22

Weekly – Seven weeks of consolidation below the 3.5 level. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – Flat. The second break above the 4.28 long entry, but stopped at the downward sloping channel resistance. Trade pressures are up and trending. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 5.22.

A close below 4.60 would signal a failure and lower.

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGH22

Weekly – Remains in the June 2020 uptrend. Trade pressures are now down. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Short. The 1/28 close below 4.42 triggers the new short. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 4.24.

A close above 4.33 could trigger a retracement up.

 

GOLD_ GCM22

Weekly – In the May 2021 uptrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Flat. In the retracement move down from the 1827 short entry. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 1779.

A close above 1796 would restart the long trade.

 

SILVER_ SIH22

Weekly – In the August 2021 downtrend. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish.

Daily –  Flat. In the move down from the 200 day MA resistance at 24.70. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 20.83

A close above 22.85 would restart the move up.

Navellier Top 5 Stocks for February

The following is provided by Navellier with technical comment from South Ocean Management – pls do your own due diligence.

(For this 2022 year, SOM will track the Top 5 Hi-Growth Investments.)

https://navelliergrowth.investorplace.com/

High-Growth Investments

CubeSmart

CubeSmart (CUBE), as we discussed earlier, operates in the self-storage industry. With approximately 1,200 locations in the U.S., CubeSmart is one of the top three providers of self-storage units in the country. It offers everything from temperature-controlled units and personal vehicle storage to warehouse storage solutions for businesses.

At the end of the third quarter 2021, CubeSmart had 706 third-party managed stores, with 47.8 million square feet, and 507 stores, with 35.5 million rentable feet. Its occupancy rate was nearly 95%. And thanks to the “strong performance” across its portfolio, CubeSmart increased its outlook for fiscal year 2021. Full-year earnings per share are forecast to be between $1.30 and $1.31, up from previous estimates for earnings per share between $0.93 to $0.97.

For the fourth quarter, CubeSmart also noted that it expects earnings per share between $0.42 and $0.43. What’s interesting is that the analyst community didn’t increase its estimates after the positive outlook. The consensus estimate only calls for fourth-quarter earnings of $0.24 per share. So, it looks like CubeSmart is gearing up for another quarterly earnings surprise.

CubeSmart is expected to release fourth-quarter and full-year results in late February. In the meantime, CUBE is a Conservative buy below $54.

SOM Technicals:

12-18-21: Closed at 55.79. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 56.64.

12-31-21: Closed at 56.91. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are  bullish. The next target up is 59.88.

1-7-22: Closed at 51.20. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now bearish. The next target down is 50.00

1-14-22: Closed at 51.08. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 50.00.

1-21-22: Closed at 50.59. Trade pressures are down but rising. volumes are bearish. The next target down is 48.31.

1-29-22: Closed at 59.92. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are now neutral. The next target down is 45.46.

2-5-22: Closed at 51.16. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 54.24.

2-12-22: Closed at 50.58. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 47.82.

2-20-22: Closed at 48.09. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 45.46.

 

Extra Space Storage

Extra Space Storage (EXR) is another play on the booming self-storage industry. It is actually the second-largest operator of self-storage units in the U.S., with more than 2,000 Extra Space Storage branded locations. It offers a variety storage options, including units for vehicles, RVs and boats, as well as business storage and climate-controlled units.

During the first nine months of 2021, Extra Space Storage achieved “record-setting occupancy and exceptionally strong rental rates.” As a result, earnings jumped 67.6% year-over-year to $4.19 per share, compared to the first nine months of 2020. Funds From Operations (FFO) also rose 32.3% year-over-year to $5.00 per share.

Extra Space Storage is scheduled to release results for its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2021 after the closing bell on February 23. Fourth-quarter earnings are expected to grow 17.6% year-over-year to $1.40 per share, up from $1.19 per share in the same quarter a year ago. Analysts have also increased fourth-quarter estimates over the past three months, so a fifth-straight quarterly earnings surprise is likely.

For its full-year 2021, earnings are forecast to rise 42% year-over-year to $5.27 per share, compared to $3.71 per share in 2020. EXR is a Conservative buy below $208.

SOM Technicals:

08-26-21: Closed at 183.46. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 210.40, but at resistance here.

09-04-21: Closed at 193.71. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. Next target up is 200.32.

09-11-21: Closed at 187.05. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 181.91.

09-18-21: Closed at 180.12. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 174.02.

09-26-21: Closed at 172.61. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 166.05.

10-02-21: Closed at 168.94. Trade pressure are down. Volumes are bearish. At the prior low support, 168.65.

10-09-21: Closed at 171.12. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. Need a close above the 25×5 MA at 178.29.

10-23-21: Closed at 185.93. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 188.00.

10-30-21: Closed at 197.37. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 200.82.

11-06-21: Closed at 194.71. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 189.64.

11-13-21: Closed at 187.96. Trade pressures are rising up out of the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish. The next target up is the prior high at 203.99.

11-19-21; Closed at 202.09. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are now bearish. 197.58 starts a new move down.

11-28-21: Closed at 198.79. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 190.39.

12-03-21: Closed at 201.48. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is the prior high at 207.56.

12-10-21: Closed at 208.71. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 211.20.

12-17-21: Closed at 215.15. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 220.42.

12-31-21: Closed at 226.73. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 254.08.

1-7-22: Closed at 208.45. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 200.14.

1-14-22: Closed at 203.61. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 182.40.

1-21-22: Closed at 195.48. Trade pressures are down. Volumes reman bearish. The next target down is 182.40.

1-29-22: Closed at 196.91. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are now bullish. The next target down is 182.40.

2-5-22: Closed at 201.46. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 218.15.

2-12-22: Closed at 196.92. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 193.32.

2-20-22: Closed at 187.46. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 183.62.

 

Ford Motor Company

Ford Motor Company (F) continues to be one of my top picks for the electric vehicle  revolution. The auto maker has been in business for more than 115 years, and it’s dedicated to staying at the forefront of vehicle evolution. The company’s foray into EVs has been a strategic and spectacular decision, as Ford continues to see increasing demand for its top models.

In fact, Ford announced earlier this week that it has more than 10,000 orders for its E-Transit van, with more than 1,000 orders coming from Walmart. The company recently started production on the vans, and it anticipates the vehicle will be delivered to customers soon. Ford also has approximately 200,000 reservations for the F-150 Lightning – and those reservations are converting to orders.

Ford is boosting its manufacturing capacity in order to keep up with demand for its EVs and other leading models, as it recently had to halt reservations for not only its F-150 Lightning but also its new Maverick pickup truck. Still, Ford anticipates that EV capacity could reach 600,000 vehicles in less than two years, which CEO Jim Farley stated should put Ford as “number-two in electric.”

Ford plans to post fourth-quarter and full-year results after the stock market closes on Thursday, February 3. The current consensus estimate calls for earnings of $0.42 per share on $35.77 billion in revenue, which represents 23.5% year-over-year earnings growth and 7.7% year-over-year revenue growth.

I should add that earnings estimates have been revised steadily higher over the past three months, which bodes well for another quarterly earnings surprise. Ford has posted a whopping 383% earnings surprise on average in the past four quarters. F is a Moderately Aggressive buy below $21.

SOM Technicals:

12-18-21: Closed at 19.77. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 18.97.

12-31-21: Closed at 20.77. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are bullish. The next target down is 18.97.

1-7-22: Closed at 24.44. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are neutral. The next target up is 26.20.

1-14-22: Closed at 25.19. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 26.45.

1-21-22: Closed at 20.65. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 19.27.

1-29-22: Closed at 19.54. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is the 200 day MA at 15.96.

2-5-22: Closed at 17.96. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is the 200 day MA at 16.16.

2-12-22: Closed at 17.56. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 17.02.

2-20-22: Closed at 18.04. Trade pressures are rising into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 20.39.

 

Fortinet, Inc.

Fortinet, Inc. (FTNT) was one of our additions to the High-Growth Investments Buy List in the January Monthly Issue. If you recall, Fortinet operates in the lucrative cybersecurity space, as it provides unified security solutions that can be deployed over digital networks to protect users against malware, spam and network intrusions.

Cybersecurity stepped front and center over the past two years, as data breaches escalated with more folks working remotely. In fact, the IBM Cost of a Data Breach Report 2021 revealed that the average cost of a data breach was between $3.86 million and $4.24 million on an annualized basis in 2021. And the average cost was $1.07 million higher when remote work was involved.

Needless to say, Fortinet’s services and products have been in top demand as individuals and businesses upgrade their security efforts. And we don’t have to wait long to see how much this increase in demand added to the company’s top and bottom lines. Fortinet is scheduled to announce fourth-quarter results after the stock market closes on Thursday, February 3.

The analyst community is looking for earnings of $1.15 per share on $958.28 million in revenue, which is up from earnings of $1.06 per share and revenue of $748 million in the fourth quarter of 2020. Analysts’ earnings estimates have remained steady over the past few months, but Fortinet does have a history of posting positive earnings surprises. FTNT is a Conservative buy below $297.

SOM Technicals:

1-29-22: Closed at 282.16. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now bullish. A close above 283.47 would signal higher.

2-5-22: Closed at 314.33. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is resistance at 321.78.

2-12-22: Closed at 310.27. Trade pressures are don into the neutral zone. Volumes are now neutral. Support is 290.00 at the 200 day MA. 

2-20-22: Closed at 304.85. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 288.33.

 

TFI International, Inc.

TFI International, Inc. (TFII) is a Canadian-based provider of transportation and logistics services, with a network that covers more than 80 North American cities. The company boasts more than 560 facilities, more than 80 operating companies and more than 14,100 drivers – all dedicated to providing the logistics and transport services necessary to keep freight moving across North America.

Amidst the supply chain disruptions, port bottlenecks and shortage of truck drivers, TFI International’s services have been top demand. During the first nine months of 2021, the company achieved total revenue of $5.08 billion and adjusted earnings of $349.7 million, which represented 91% year-over-year revenue growth and 69.5% year-over-year earnings growth.

TFI International will report fourth-quarter and full-year 2021 results after the stock market closes on Monday, February 7. Fourth-quarter adjusted earnings are expected to grow 23.5% year-over-year to $1.21 per share, up from $0.98 per share in the fourth quarter of 2020. Full-year 2021 earnings are forecast to increase 43.6% year-over-year to $4.74 per share, compared to $3.30 per share in 2020. TFII is a Moderately Aggressive buy below $103.

SOM Technicals:

1-29-22: Closed at 94.06. Trade pressures are down. volumes are bearish. at support. A close above 95.90 would signal higher.

2-5-22: Closed at 98.33. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now neutral. The next target up is 101.22.

2-12-22: Closed at 107.07. Trade pressures are up  but rolling over. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 111.88.

2-20-22: Closed at 102.28. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now neutral. The next target down is 98.04.

 

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Pressures:

Copper consolidating after a move to 4.60. Gold now in a second leg up. Silver in a nice move up after backtesting the prior resistance line.

Oil Is setting new highs. Look for some consolidation here. Nat Gas has moved down to old support levels, look for a new long entry.

The US 30 year Treasury is in a new move up.

The US Dollar futures are in a move down from the 96 level. 93.15 is the 200 day MA.

____________________

S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – Traded below the prior month low. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes closed the December month as bullish. The next target up is 5010. A close below 4252 and the prior low pivot would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – In the new move down from 4505. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 4202. A close back above 4789 would confirm any Daily move higher.

Daily – Flat. In the move down form the 4720 short  entry on Jan 5th. Trade pressures are down. Volumes remain bearish. The 4578 target was immediate, then three hard down days thru the 4437 extended target to close at 4381; now down 427 S&P points. A close back above 4512 would signal higher.

____________________

Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is marked to the market and is restarted at $100,000 for the 2022 year.

The portfolio stocks closed up 39% for the 2021 Year.  This last week in 2022 was down hard to approximately $87,000. The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is now down 13%.

 

[The author may have long or short positions in any of the securities mentioned.]

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXH22

Weekly – In the March 2021 up Trend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – In the move down from the 11/30/21 short entry at 95.91. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is the resistance line at 96.00.

A close below 95.38 would signal lower.

 

US 30YR T-BOND_ USH22

Weekly – In the January down trend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Long. In the new move up from the 155-13 long entry. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 157-23. Take that profit as the weekly is still down trade pressure.

A close below 155-09 would signal lower and act as stop loss.