Author: ChasW

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXU22

Weekly – Remains in the March 2021 uptrend. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – Consolidating at the 105.43 downside target and working off the overbought pressures. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is the prior high pivot at 106.81.

A close below 106.09 signals lower.

 

US 30YR T-BOND_ USU22

Weekly – In the January 2022 downtrend. Trade pressures are up but rolling over. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – Flat. In the move up from the 139-13 long entry on 7/21. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

The next target up is the high pivot at 145-31.

The 10 yr yield is rising. A close blow 138-28 would signal lower.

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLU22

Weekly – In the Feb uptrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Flat. In the move down from the 94.59 short entry on 8/1. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 82.78.

A close above 90.80 would signal higher.

 

NAT GAS_ NGU22

Weekly – Remains in the June 2021 uptrend. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Flat. on the move down from the 8.32 short entry on 7/28. Trade pressures are down but rising into the neutral zone. Volumes ae bearish.

The next target down is 7.22 and would be the profit target.

A close above 8.54 would signal higher, but would be near an overbought level.

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPERR_ HGU22

Weekly – In the May 2022 downtrend. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Flat. In the move up from the 3.35 long entry on 7/25. Trade pressures are rising into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish.

Friday had a break out of the small bull flag at 3.51. Need a pullback to relieve the overbought pressures.

A close below 3.47 signals lower. Use this the SL.

 

GOLD_ GCZ22

Weekly – In the July 2022 downtrend. Trade pressures are rising into the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral.

Daily – Flat. In the move up from the July 29th entry at 1766. Trade pressures are up but pointing down. Volumes are now bearish.

The next target up is 1845. Over bought. Need a reversal of the trade pressures to re-enter.

A close below 1777 would signal lower. Use that as a SL.

 

SILVER_ SIU22

Weekly – In the May 2022 downtrend. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Flat. In the move up from the 19.33. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

The next target up is 20.15. Need a trade pressure reversal to re-enter; below 19.00 would relieve the over bought pressure.

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Pressures:

Copper is long in a retracement of the June move down. Both gold and silver are new longs, but watch the dollar.

Crude oil is in a new long after the retracement down. Natural gas is in a new short.

The US 30 year Treasury bond is long and in the second leg of the move up.

The US Dollar futures are consolidating after reaching a weekly target.

______________________

S&P Futures_

Monthly – Building a railroad track, a breakout of the prior month high at 4191 would be significant. Trade pressures are down. Volumes closed the month of June as bearish. The next target down is 3008. A close above 4275 would confirm any weekly move higher.

Weekly – The 3589 support level has held for the time being. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bullish. The next target down remains the 3589 level. A close above 4313 would confirm any daily move higher.

Daily – Long. The prior trade from 3818 was stopped out at BE 3818 SL. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. A new long entry was at the 7/20 trend line breakout @3938. 4098 is the new SL. OverBot – Take profits at the 4178 upside target.
[8-1-22: Stopped out at the 4098 SL.]

____________________

Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is marked to the market and is restarted at $100,000 for the 2022 year.

The portfolio stocks closed up 39% for the 2021 Year.

This last week was up and the value moved up to approximately $74,000. The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is now down 26%.

Continental Resources (CLR), Conoco Phillips (COP) and Targa Resources (TRGP) will be replaced with Cenovus Energy (CVE). Quanta Services (PWR) and Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM) at the Monday open.

[The author may have long or short positions in any of the securities mentioned.]

 

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXU22

Weekly – Still in the March 21 uptrend. Trade pressures are up, but rolling over after reaching the 108.51 weekly target. Volumes are neutral.

Daily – In the move down from the 7/27 short entry @ 106.65. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 104.31.

A close above 107.03 would signal higher.

 

US 30YR T-BOND_ USU22

Weekly – In the January 2022 downtrend. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – Long. In the Move up from the 7/13 long entry @ 139-13. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 149-30.

A close below 137-22 would signal lower. Raise SL to BE at 142.25

[8-3-22:Stopped out at 142-08.]

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLU22

Weekly – In the Feb 2022 uptrend. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Long. In the new move up from the 7/18 long entry @ 96.03. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bearish.

The next target up is 104.58.
[Take profits above 101.34.]

A close below 95.98 would signal lower. Use this as the SL.

[8-1-22: Stopped out at 95.98.]

 

NAT GAS_ NGU22

Weekly – Remains in the June 2021 uptrend after testing the support in early July 2022. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are now bearish.

Daily –  Short. In the new move down from the 7/28 short entry @ 8.32. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone.

The next target down is 7.22.
[Take profits below 7.03.]

A close above 8.88 would signal higher. Use this as the SL.

[8-1-22: Lower SL to BE, 8.32.]

[8-3-22: Stopped out at BE, 8.32]

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGU22

Weekly – In the May 2022 downtrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Long. In the move up from the 7/25 entry @ 3.35. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 3.59.   [Take profits above 3.53.]

A close below the long entry price is the stop loss.
[7-31-22: Raise SL to 3.53]

[8-1-22: Stopped out at 3.53.]

 

GOLD_ GCZ22

Weekly – In the July 2022 downtrend. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are now neutral.

Daily – Long. In the move up from the 7/29 entry @1766. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 1787.
[Take profits above 1782.]

A close below 1744 would signal lower. Use this as the SL, raise to breakeven once outside the avg true range.

[7-31-22: Sold at 1782.]

 

SILVER SIU22

Weekly – In the May 2022 downtrend. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are now bullish.

Daily – Long. In the new move up from the 7/28 entry @ 19.35. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 20.97.
[Take profits above 20.15.]

A close below 19.35 would signal lower. Use this level as the SL.
[7-31-22: Raise SL to 20.15.]

[8-2-22: Stopped out @ 20.15.]

Navellier Top 5 Stocks for August

The following is provided by Navellier with technical comment from South Ocean Management – pls do your own due diligence.

(For this 2022 year, SOM will track the Top 5 Hi-Growth Investments.)

https://navelliergrowth.investorplace.com/

 

High-Growth Investments

Cenovus Energy, Inc.

Cenovus Energy, Inc. (CVE), like this month’s two new buys, operates in the oil sands projects in Alberta. The company is the third-largest Canadian oil and natural gas producers, as well as the second-largest refiner and upgrader in Canada. The company produced nearly 792,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2021, and it had total proved reserves of 6.1 billion barrels of oil equivalent.

Cenovus Energy reported second-quarter results on Thursday morning. During the second quarter, Cenovus Energy had upstream production of 762,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and downstream throughput of more than 457,000 barrels per day.

Second-quarter earnings surged 981.8% year-over-year to $1.19 per share, up from $0.11 per share in the same quarter a year ago. The consensus estimate called for earnings of $0.82 per share, so Cenovus Energy posted a 45.1% earnings surprise. Second-quarter revenue came in at $19.2 billion, crushing estimates for $11.56 billion.

Looking forward, Cenovus Energy expects to achieve full-year production between 780,000 to 810,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Cenovus Energy also plans to pay a quarterly dividend of $0.105 per share on September 29. All shareholders of record on September 15 will receive the dividend. CVE is a Moderately Aggressive buy below $22.

SOM Technicals:

7-30-22: Closed at 19.08. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 22.29.

8-6-22: Closed at 16.43> Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 15.28, the prior low.

8-12-22: Closed at 18.68. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 18.75.

8-21-22: Closed at 18.19. Trade pressures are up but turning down. Volumes are now neutral. 17.76 would start a new leg down.

 

Devon Energy Corporation

Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) is one of the top oil and gas companies in the U.S., with operations in the Anadarko Basin, the Delaware Basin, Eagle Ford, the Powder River Basin and the Williston Basin. This week, the company completed its acquisition of 38,000 additional net acres in the Williston Basin. It purchased the acreage from RimRock Oil and Gas, LP for $865 million.

The acquisition adds nicely to Devon Energy’s current assets in the Williston Basin, and it’s expected to boost production by an average of 20,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the next 12 months. Devon Energy also noted that there’s the potential for more than 100 undrilled inventory locations on the acreage, which will add to the company’s production and top and bottom lines.

Devon Energy is scheduled to release results for its second quarter on Monday, August 1. Second-quarter earnings are expected to surge 295% year-over-year to $2.37 per share, up from $0.60 per share in the same quarter a year ago. Analysts have also upped earnings estimates by nearly 14% in the past three months, so a quarterly earnings surprise is likely. Revenue is forecast to soar 100.6% year-over-year to $4.72 billion. DVN is a Moderately Aggressive buy below $71.

SOM Technicals:

5-1-22: Closed at 58.17. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 55.44.

5-6-22: Closed at 69.69. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 70.97.

5-14-22: Closed at 68.60. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 69.75.

5-21-22: Closed at 68.92. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 73.18.

5-29-22: Closed at 75.85. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are Bullish. The next target up is 79.23.

6-05-22: Closed at 77.02. Trade pressures are up. But rolling over. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 88.63.

6-11-22: Closed at 73.75. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 69.38.

6-18-22: Closed at 58.02. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 51.12.

6-25-22: Closed at 53.77. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 51.68.

7-2-22: Closed at 56.11. Trade pressure are in the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is the 200 day MA at 52.38.

7-9-22: Closed at 54.47. Trade pressures are up into the neutral one. Volumes are neutral. The next target up is 59.82.

7-30-22: Closed at 62.85. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 70.78.

8-6-22: Closed at 56.66. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 59.82.

8-12-22: Closed at 65.56. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 70.78.

8-21-22: 68.51. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are now bearish. The next target down is 64.92.

 

Marathon Oil Corporation

Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO) is another leading oil and gas company in the U.S., as it has operations in the Bakken Shale, Eagle Ford, the Permian Basin and STACK/SCOOP. The company’s production portfolio is basically equally weighted with a 50% oil and 50% natural gas/natural gas liquids mix. Marathon Oil produced 173,000 barrels of oil per day and 348,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in its fiscal year 2021.

Marathon Oil Corporation plans to post second-quarter results on Wednesday, August 3. The analyst community expects earnings to soar 486.4% year-over-year to $1.29 per share, up from $0.22 per share in the second quarter of 2021. Revenue is forecast to grow 81.5% year-over-year to $2.07 billion. Earnings estimates have been revised 22.8% higher in the past three months, which bodes well for a fifth-straight quarterly earnings surprise.

I should add that Marathon Oil also rewards its shareholders with regular quarterly dividends. In fact, the company upped its dividend for the fifth-straight quarter, paying $0.08 per share on June 10. The stock has a 1.3% dividend yield. MRO is a Moderately Aggressive buy below $29.

SOM Technicals:

3-26-22: Closed at 26.04. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. In consolidation. A close below 25.00 would signal lower.

4-2-22: Closed at 25.75. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone, Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 26.22, the prior high.

4-10-22: Closed at 25.92. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 26.40 the prior high.

5-1-22: Closed at 24.92. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are neutral. The next target up is 27.27.

5-6-22: Closed at 28.15. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 29.00.

5-14-22: Closed at 27.00. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 27.35.

5-21-22: Closed at 27.26. Trade pressures are down but turning up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is the 28.44 resistance.

5-29-22: Closed at 31.24. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 34.09.

6-05-22: Closed at 31.60. Trade pressures are up but rolling over. Volumes are bullish. A break below 30.58 would signal lower.

6-11-22: Closed at 30.10. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 27.90.

6-18-22: Closed at 24.15. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 20.39.

6-25-22: Closed at 22.05. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 20.62.

7-2-22: Closed at 22.56. Trade pressures are in the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 20.90.

7-9-22: Closed at 21.72. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral. The next target up is 24.55.

7-30-22: Closed at 24.80. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 28.90.

8-6-22: Closed at 21.77. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is a retest of the low at 19.42.

8-12-22: Closed at 24.06. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 28.90.

8-21-22: Closed at 24.46. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 28.90. 

 

Quanta Services, Inc.

Quanta Services, Inc. (PWR) primarily provides infrastructure solutions for electric power, wireless and fiber optic installation, underground utilities and pipelines. Simply put, Quanta Services provides “the infrastructure that powers your world” – and it has benefited immensely from the shift to 5G.

In the first quarter, Quanta Services achieved 47% year-over-year revenue growth and 65% year-over-year earnings growth. The company noted that strong revenue growth in each of its businesses drove the robust results in the quarter, and, in turn, it provided a strong outlook for the rest of 2022. Full-year revenue is expected to be between $16.2 billion and $16.7 billion, while adjusted earnings per share are forecast to be between $6.00 and $6.50.

Thanks to the strong outlook, analysts are expecting solid results in the second quarter, too. Quanta Services is ready to release results from the most recent quarter on Thursday, August 4. The current consensus estimate calls for earnings of $1.52 per share on $4.04 billion in revenue, which represents 43.4% year-over-year earnings growth and 34.5% year-over-year revenue growth. PWR is a Conservative buy below $152.

SOM Technicals:

7-30-22: Closed at 138.73. Trade pressures are up. but showing divergence. Volumes are bearish. The  next target down is 133.65.

8-6-22: Closed at 136.91. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 138.44.

8-12-22: Closed at 143.46. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 145.03.

8-21-22: Closed at 142.02. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are now neutral. The next target down is 138.78.

 

Sociedad Quimica y Minera

Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM) is a chemical company based in Chile, with a focus on producing lithium, iodine potassium nitrate and thermos-solar salt. SQM is a leading producer of potassium fertilizers, including potassium chloride (the most common fertilizer used globally), potassium sulfate and potassium nitrate.

Thanks to ongoing demand and rising fertilizer prices, SQM’s business had an incredible start to its fiscal year 2022. First-quarter earnings surged 1,070.7% year-over-year to $796.1 million, or $2.79 per share. Analysts only expected earnings of $1.28 per share. So, in the wake of its 118% earnings surprise, the analyst community has nearly doubled its second-quarter earnings estimates.

For the second quarter, earnings are expected to soar 1,080% year-over-year to $2.95 per share, compared to previous estimates for only $1.50 per share. Second-quarter revenue is forecast to come in at $2.19 billion. SQM will report final results on August 17. SQM is an Aggressive buy below $118.

SOM Technicals:

7-30-22: Closed at 98.37. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 114.55.

8-6-22: Closed at 92.79. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target up is 96.79.

8-12-22: Closed at 108.70. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 114.55.

8-21-22: Closed at 90.07. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target up 93.58, the new long entry.

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Pressures:

Copper is looking higher. Gold and silver are searching for lows.

Crude is in a new move up. Natural gas is also moving higher.

The US 30 year Treasuries have stopped out of the long trade.

The US Dollar futures have reached a target and look to be consolidating.

____________________

S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – In the move down form the 4545 short entry. Trade pressures are down. Volumes closed the month of June as bearish. The next target down is 3008. A close above 4275 would confirm any weekly move higher.

Weekly – At the the 3589 downside target. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral. The next target  down is 2840. A close above 4213 would confirm any daily move higher.

Daily – Long in the move up from the 3818 entry. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 3969. A close below 3885 would signal lower and is the SL.

____________________

Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is marked to the market and is restarted at $100,000 for the 2022 year.

The portfolio stocks closed up 39% for the 2021 Year.

This last week was down again and the value moved down to approximately $66,000. The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is now down 34%.

(The Navellier Top 5 Portfolio is all energy. I might not do that, Perhaps add some Gold and the US Dollar ETF to offset the risk. But When this market turns, it is going to chase fundamentals and cashflow and the TOP 5 is that.)

 

[The author may have long or short positions in any of the securities mentioned.]

 

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXU22

Weekly – In the June 2021 uptrend and near the 108.51 upside target. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – In the move up from the 103.67 long entry price. Trade pressures are up and trending. Volumes are bearish.

The next target up is the 107.67 which has offered resistance.
[7-12-22: new resistance at 108.42.]

A close below 106.58 would signal lower.
[7-12-22: Now stops at 107.52.]

 

US 30YR T-BOND_ USU22

Weekly – In the January 2022 move down. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Flat. The long trade was stopped out at the 137-20 SL Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 135-03.

A close above 138-23 would signal higher.

[7-12-22 long at 138-23. set SL at BE]

[7-13-22: Stopped out on the reaction to the inflation report.]