Author: ChasW

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGZ22

Weekly – In the May 2022 downtrend. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Short in the new move down from the 3.45 short entry on 10-14. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are now neutral.

The next target down is 3.32, which is the oversold number. So tighten up the stops quickly. TP at 3.32.

A close above 3.48 would signal higher; use that as the SL.

[10/17/22: Lower SL to BE at 3.45.]

[10/19/22: Profit stop met at 3.32.]

 

GOLD_ GCZ22

Weekly – In the July 2022 downtrend, Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Short, from the 1688 entry on 10/10. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 1637.50 which is also into the oversold area. Take profits at this level.

A close above 1651 would signal higher. Set this as SL.

[10/19/22: Profit stop met at 1637.]

 

SILVER_ SIZ22

Weekly –  In the May 2022 downtrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish,

Daily – Short in the move down from the 10/7 entry at 20.42. Trade pressures are down and extended. Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 17.76. Take profits at this target.

A close above 18.86 would signal higher. Set this as SL.

10/17/22: SL hit at 18.86.]

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Summary:

Copper failed to follow thru and was stopped out. Gold long was stopped at 1701. Silver is new short entry.

Crude oil is in the production cut rally. Natural gas continues the retracement.

The US Treasury Bond attempted a rally but the ten year note rally, after the unemployment report, has stopped that move.

The US Dollar futures have resumed the move up.

____________________

S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – Retracing the week’s move up. Trade pressures are down. Volumes closed the month of September as bearish. The next target down is 3008. A close above 4208 would confirm any weekly move higher.

Weekly – In the move down from the late August 4053 short entry. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 3181. A close above 4206 would confirm any daily move higher.

Daily – Flat. In the move up after the 3734 long entry on 10/4. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are now bearish. The next target up is a revisit of the long entry at 3734 ( 3694 on the one hour charts). A close below 3637 would signal lower. 3552 is the oversold level.

____________________

Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is marked to the market and is restarted at $100,000 for the 2022 year.

The portfolio stocks closed up 39% for the 2021 Year.

This week’s market closed with a retracement after a two day rally . The portfolio value increased almost 10% to approximately $75,000. The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is now down 25%.

On Monday, Cenovus Energy (CVE) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) will be replaced by Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR) and Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM).

[The author may have long or short positions in any of the securities mentioned.]

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXZ22

Weekly – Remains in the March 2021 uptrend. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – In the move up after touching the 110 oversold level. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 114.16.

A close below 111.56 would signal lower.

 

US30YR T-BOND_ USZ22

Weekly – In the January 2022 downtrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Stopped out of the new move up. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

The next target up is the 127-23 long entry.

A close below the 125-02 low pivot restarts the move down.

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLX22

Weekly – In the September 2022 downtrend. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – In the move up from the 79.33 long entry on 9/28. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 96.23. 90.80 is the over-bot level, Since price is above, use this as SL.

A close below 89.18 would signal lower.

 

NAT GAS_ NGX22

Weekly – In the June 202 uptrend, but declining to test support. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Flat. In the move down from the 8.87 short entry on 9/15. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are bearish.

6.30 is the over-sold level. The next target down is 5.76.

A close above 7.50 would signal higher.

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGZ22

Weekly – In the May 2022 downtrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Flat. Still in the move up. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

A bullish reversal of the trade pressures and the re-cross of the long entry at 3.40 would signal higher.

The next support level is 3.31.
3.21 is the oversold level.

 

GOLD_ GCZ22

Weekly – In the July 2022 downtrend. Trade pressures are rising. Volumes are still bullish.

Daily – Flat. In a pull back after the rally to the median line. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish.

Stopped out at the 1701 SL. The next target up is 1750.

A close below 1697 would signal lower. 1613 is the oversold level.

 

SILVER_ SIZ22

Weekly – In the May 2022 downtrend. Trade pressers are up. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – Short. In the move down from the 20.42 short entry. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are neutral.

The next target down is 19.53.

A close above 20.84 would signal higher. Use this as the SL.

 

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Pressures:

Copper is in a new long trade. Gold has signaled a new move up. Silver is in consolidation.

Crude oil is in a new move up. Natural gas is consolidating at the 200 day MA.

The US 30 Year Treasury Bond continues the move lower, but is near a long entry.

The US  Dollar future is in retracement lower.

____________________

S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – Breaks the June lows. Trade pressures are down. volumes closed the mont of September as bearish. The next target down is 3008. A close above 4232 would confirm any weekly move higher.

Weekly – A the 3597 downside target. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 3181. A close above 3230 would confirm any daily move higher.

Daily – In the move down from the 9/13 short entry at 4070. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 3552. A  close above 3757 would signal higher.

[10/4/22: Long @ 3734. Take profits at 3916. SL @ BE, 3734.]
[10/5/22: Stopped out @3734.]

____________________

Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is marked to the market and is restarted at $100,000 for the 2022 year.

The portfolio stocks closed up 39% for the 2021 Year.

This week’s market closed on its lows. The portfolio value increased to approximately $65,000. The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is now down 35%.

On Monday, Cenovus Energy (CVE) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) will be replaced by Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR) and Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM).

[The author may have long or short positions in any of the securities mentioned.]

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXZ22

Weekly – The 114.75 begins a retracement of that move up. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are now bearish.

Daily – In the retracement move down from the 113.58 short entry. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now neutral.

The next target down is 110.12 which should coincide with an over-sold reading.

A close above 112.95 would signal higher once again.

 

US 30YR T-BOND_ USZ22

Weekly – In the January 2022 downtrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Short. Continues in the move down from the 138-24 short on 8/19. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 122-30.

A close above 127-26 would signal higher.

[10/4/22: Reversal. Now long at the 127-26 entry price. SL @ 126-03. Take profits at 130-24.]

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLX22

Weekly – In the August 2022 downtrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Flat. The 89 to 79 trade setup was successful. Trade pressures are now up. Volumes are still bearish.

The next long entry was triggered at 79.33 on 9/27. The next target up is 82.45.

A close below 76.25 would signal lower. Use this as the SL.

[10/4/22: Take profits at 88.60. Set new SL at 84.93.]

[10/6/22: Profit stop hit overnight, out at 88.60.]

 

NAT GAS_ NGX22

Weekly – In the June 2021 uptrend. Trade pressures are down hard. Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Flat. In the move down from the 8.70 short entry on 9/15. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

At the next target down 6.56, the 200 day MA.

A close above 7.78 7.44 would signal higher.

 

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

 

COPPER_ HGZ22

Weekly – In the May 2022 downtrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now bullish.

Daily –  Flat. In the move up off the 3.24 low pivot. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is the new long entry at 3.41.

A close below the  3.24 level would signal lower. Use this as the SL.

[10/4/22: long @ 3.41. Raise stop to BE, 3.41. Take profits at 3.56.]

[10/5/22: Raise the stops to 3.45.]

 

GOLD_ GCZ22

Weekly – In the July 2022 downtrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now bullish.

Daily – In the new move up from the 1654 long entry. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are now bullish.

Wait for a pull back to enter near the 1660 level. The next target up would be 1686.

A close below 1622, the prior low, would signal lower. Use this as the SL.

[10/4/22: Long at the small back-test at 1666. Next target up is 1750. Set SL at 1695, the 25×5 MA]

[10/5/22: Raise the stop to 1701.]

 

SILVER_ SIZ22

Weekly – In the May 2022 downtrend. Trade pressures are in the neutral zone. Volumes are now bullish.

Daily – Flat.  In consolidation around the 18.00 level. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are now bearish.

The next target up is 20.00.

A close below 17.81 would signal lower.

[10/4/22: completely missed this trade. Flat.]

Navellier Top 5 Stocks for October 2022

The following is provided by Navellier with technical comment from South Ocean Management – pls do your own due diligence.

(For this 2022 year, SOM will track the Top 5 Hi-Growth Investments.)

https://navelliergrowth.investorplace.com/

High-Growth Investments

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF), one of the biggest fertilizer companies in North America, has been in business for more than 75 years. From humble beginnings as a fertilizer supplier to regional agriculture customers in Illinois, CF Industries has grown to operate five nitrogen manufacturing plants in the U.S., as well as two plants in Canada, two plants in the U.K. and one in Trinidad.

Elevated natural gas prices have been a bit of a headwind for the company, but CF Industries still produced 5.1 million tons of ammonia in the first half of the year. In turn, it also achieved earnings of $2.05 billion, or $9.78 per share, in the first six months of 2022. For full year 2022, CF Industries expects ammonia production between 9.5 million and 10.0 million tons.

CF Industries is scheduled to release third-quarter results on November 2. Third-quarter earnings are expected to surge to $3.41 per share, up from a $0.86 per share loss in the same quarter a year ago. The analyst community has lowered estimates slightly in the past three months, but, clearly, CF Industries is anticipated to post blowout earnings results. Third-quarter revenue is forecast to come in at $2.35 billion. CF is a Conservative buy below $129.

SOM Technicals:

8-27-22: Closed at118.35. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 122.83 with support at 114.80.

9-2-22: Closed at 106.86. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The next target down is 98.40.

9-9-22: Closed at 102.46. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now neutral. The next target down is 98.40.

9-16-22: Closed at 98.59. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now bullish. The next target down is 85.29.

9-23-22: Closed at 93.79. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are are now neutral. The next target down is 85.29.

10-01-22: Closed at 96.25.Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 85.29.

10/8/22; closed at 104.80. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 109.45

10-16-22: Closed at 98.04. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is the the 200 day MA at 92.26.

10-22-22: Closed at 107.32. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 110.46.

 

Devon Energy Corporation

Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) remains one of the few stocks on both the High-Growth Investments and Elite Dividend Payers Buy List, as it continues to earn a coveted AA-rating. In other words, DVN earns an A-rating from both Dividend Grader and Portfolio Grader, making it a prime candidate for income and growth.

The oil and natural gas company rewards shareholders not only with regular quarterly dividends but also with variable dividends of up to 50% of its extra free cash flow. Today, September 30, Devon Energy paid a regular dividend of $0.02 per share and a variable dividend of $1.53 per share. The $1.55 per share dividend represented a 22% increase over the previous quarter’s dividend.

Devon Energy plans to announce earnings and revenue for its third quarter on November 1. The current consensus estimate calls for third-quarter earnings of $2.21 per share on $5.08 billion in revenue, which represents 104.6% year-over-year earnings growth and 46.5% year-over-year revenue growth. Again, earnings estimates have been lowered slightly, but Devon Energy has a history of topping earnings estimates. DVN is a Moderately Aggressive buy below $65.

SOM Technicals:

5-1-22: Closed at 58.17. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 55.44.

5-6-22: Closed at 69.69. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 70.97.

5-14-22: Closed at 68.60. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 69.75.

5-21-22: Closed at 68.92. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 73.18.

5-29-22: Closed at 75.85. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are Bullish. The next target up is 79.23.

6-05-22: Closed at 77.02. Trade pressures are up. But rolling over. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 88.63.

6-11-22: Closed at 73.75. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 69.38.

6-18-22: Closed at 58.02. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 51.12.

6-25-22: Closed at 53.77. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 51.68.

7-2-22: Closed at 56.11. Trade pressure are in the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is the 200 day MA at 52.38.

7-9-22: Closed at 54.47. Trade pressures are up into the neutral one. Volumes are neutral. The next target up is 59.82.

7-30-22: Closed at 62.85. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 70.78.

8-6-22: Closed at 56.66. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 59.82.

8-12-22: Closed at 65.56. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 70.78.

8-21-22: Closed at 68.51. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are now bearish. The next target down is 64.92.

8-27-22: Closed at 72.77. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 75.96.

9-2-22: Closed at 70.34. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are now neutral. The next target down is 67.63.

9-9-22: Closed at 68.91. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are now neutral. The next target up is71.72.

9-16-22: Closed at 66.82. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 60.00.

9-23-22: Closed at 57.69. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now neutral. The next target down is 56.40.

10-1-22: Closed at 60.13. Trade pressures are now up. Volumes are neutral. The next target up is 62.26.

10-8-22: Closed at 72.04. Trade pressures are up and trending. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 81.17.

10-16-22: Closed at 68.02. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish. The next target up is the retest of 71.23.

10-22-22: Closed at 74.29. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 81.107.

 

Marathon Oil Corporation

Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO) focuses primarily on maintaining the U.S.’s energy independence, as it operates in key oil and natural gas-producing regions across the country. It currently has operations in Eagle Ford, Bakken Shale, the Permian Basin and STACK/SCOOP.

For fiscal year 2022, Marathon Oil projects that it will produce 159 million to 165 million barrels of oil per day (Mbopd) in the U.S. It also anticipates that it will produce between 285 million and 290 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (Mboed) this year.

Marathon Oil is set to report third-quarter results on November 2. Third-quarter earnings are forecast to soar 220.5% year-over-year to $1.25 per share, up from $0.39 per share in the same quarter a year ago. Revenue is anticipated to increase 59% year-over-year to $2.09 billion, compared to $1.31 billion in the third quarter of 2021. Earnings are slightly lower than estimates three months ago; however, Marathon Oil has exceeded expectations for the past four quarters. MRO is a Moderately Aggressive buy below $25.

SOM Technicals:

3-26-22: Closed at 26.04. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. In consolidation. A close below 25.00 would signal lower.

4-2-22: Closed at 25.75. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone, Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 26.22, the prior high.

4-10-22: Closed at 25.92. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 26.40 the prior high.

5-1-22: Closed at 24.92. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are neutral. The next target up is 27.27.

5-6-22: Closed at 28.15. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 29.00.

5-14-22: Closed at 27.00. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 27.35.

5-21-22: Closed at 27.26. Trade pressures are down but turning up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is the 28.44 resistance.

5-29-22: Closed at 31.24. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 34.09.

6-05-22: Closed at 31.60. Trade pressures are up but rolling over. Volumes are bullish. A break below 30.58 would signal lower.

6-11-22: Closed at 30.10. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 27.90.

6-18-22: Closed at 24.15. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 20.39.

6-25-22: Closed at 22.05. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 20.62.

7-2-22: Closed at 22.56. Trade pressures are in the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 20.90.

7-9-22: Closed at 21.72. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral. The next target up is 24.55.

7-30-22: Closed at 24.80. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 28.90.

8-6-22: Closed at 21.77. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is a retest of the low at 19.42.

8-12-22: Closed at 24.06. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 28.90.

8-21-22: Closed at 24.46. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 28.90. 

8-27-22: Closed at 26.16. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 28.90.

9-2-22 Closed at 25.71. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are now neutral. The next target up is 28.90.

9-9-22: Closed at 25.61. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are now neutral. The next target up is 27.55.

9-16-22: Closed at 23.10. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now bullish. The next target up is 27.92.

9-23-22: Closed at 21.90. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 21.01.

10-1-22: Closed at 22.60. Trade pressures are rising into the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is a retest of the 21.01 level.

10-8-22: Closed at 27.94. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bearish. At the upper bound of the pitchfork. A close below 27.20 would signal lower.

10-16-22: Closed at 27.05. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The next target down is the 25.45 new short entry.

10-22-22: Closed at 29.15. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 34.01, but at resistance now.

 

Petroleo Brasilero S.A.

Petroleo Brasilero S.A. (PBR), or Petrobras, is one of the biggest oil and gas companies in the world, producing an average 2.84 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. The company also is engaged in alternative energy solutions, with five biodiesel plants, 20 thermoelectric plants, joint ventures in four wind energy projects and one solar energy plant.

As a Brazilian company, Petrobras has benefited from its home country’s efforts to boost natural gas supplies. So far this year, Petrobras has produced 2.72 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (Mboed), with natural gas accounting for 514,000 boed. Strong production and sales are expected to continue to add to Petrobras’ top and bottom lines in the second half of the year.

For the third quarter, which is anticipated to be announced in November, the analyst community expects earnings to jump 215.7% year-over-year to $1.61 per share. Earnings estimates have been revised 30% higher in the past three months, which bodes well for a quarterly earnings surprise. Third-quarter revenue is forecast to grow 36.2% year-over-year to $31.67 billion. PBR is a Conservative buy below $14.

SOM Technicals:

5-29-22: Closed at 14.29. Trade pressures are are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 13.95.

6-05-22: Closed at 14.20. Trade pressures are rising into the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 13.34.

6-11-22: Closed at 13.27. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral. the next target down is 12.14.

6-18-22: Closed at 11.61. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 10.07.

10-1-22: Closed at 12.34. Trade pressures are down, but rising. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 12.56.

10-8-22: Closed at 14.36. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 14.99.

10-16-22: Closed at 13.95. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are now neutral. The next target up is a retest of 14.29.

10-22-22: Closed at 16.05. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 16.93.

 

Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile S.A.

Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM) is the largest producer of lithium, iodine potassium nitrate and thermos-solar salt in the world. The company boasts that it has operated in the lithium industry for 25 years now, and The Wall Street Journal recently named SQM as the best-performing lithium stock.

The fact is SQM continues to benefit from strong demand and elevated prices for lithium, as about 73% of its gross profit comes from lithium. Currently, lithium prices stand at about $71,000 per metric ton, which is up from $10,000 per metric ton at the end of 2020. So far this year, lithium prices have soared 119% – and that has added handsomely to SQM’s top line, with second-quarter lithium revenue coming in at $1.85 billion.

SQM will post results for its third quarter on November 16. Third-quarter earnings are forecast to surge 1,140% year-over-year to $3.10 per share, compared to $0.25 per share in the same quarter last year. Analysts have increased earnings estimates by 15.2% in the past three months, so a fifth-straight quarterly earnings surprise is likely. SQM is an Aggressive buy below $111.

SOM Technicals:

7-30-22: Closed at 98.37. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 114.55.

8-6-22: Closed at 92.79. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target up is 96.79.

8-12-22: Closed at 108.70. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 114.55.

8-21-22: Closed at 90.07. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target up 93.58, the new long entry.

10-1-22: Closed at 90.75. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bearish. The next target up is 94.11.

10-8-22: Closed at 90.05. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 78.98.

10-16-22: Closed at 93.57. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is support at the low pivot at 80.25.

10-22-22: Closed at 94.08. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 98.59.