Author: ChasW

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGH23

Weekly – Still testing the resistance in the May 2022 downtrend. Trade pressures remain in the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – Long, form the 3.66 long entry on 11/30. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is the 3.90 upper median line. 3.81 is the overbought level. Set this 3.81 as the SL.

A close below 3.79 would signal lower.

[12-5-22: Stopped out at the 3.81 SL]

 

GOLD_ GCG23

Weekly – In the July 2022 down trend. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – Long, from the 1776 long entry on 11/30. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 1840. 1815 is the overbought level. Set the SL at the gap , 1782.

A close below 1752 would signal lower.

[12-5-22: Stopped out at the 1782 SL.]

 

SILVER_ SIH23

Weekly – In the new December 2022 uptrend. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – Long. In the  move up from the new long entry at 22.41 on 12/1. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 23.48. Overbought is at 23.48. TP at 23.48.

A close below 22.80 would signal lower. Use 22.80 as the SL.

[12-4-22: Profit stop at 23.48 taken Sunday nite session.]

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Summary:

Copper is in range expansion. Gold is looking for a breakout to the upside. Silver is in consolidation.

Crude oil is near the lower targets. Natural gas is finding resistance at the 200 day MA.

The US 30 year Treasury is in the move up off the November lows.

The US Dollar futures are near support.

_____________________

S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – Now above the prior month close. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes closed the month of October as bearish. The next target down is 3008. The next target up is 4138 and would confirm any weekly move higher.

Weekly – In the move up from 3674, the week ending 10-21. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 4190. A close below 3851 would confirm any Daily move lower.

Daily – In the move up from the 10/18 long entry at 3674. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 4190. Resistance is at 4140. A close below 3851 would signal lower.

___________________

Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is marked to the market and is restarted at $100,000 for the 2022 year.

The portfolio stocks closed up 39% for the 2021 Year.

This week’s market closed down. The portfolio value moved up 1% to approximately $72,000. The energy stocks fell with the crude futures. The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is now down 28%.

[The author may have long or short positions in any of the securities mentioned.]

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLH23

Weekly – In the September downtrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Flat. In the 11/17 move down from 81.60. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 73.35. 77.44 is oversold.

A close above 79.42 would signal higher. 85.65 is overbought.

 

Nat Gas_ NGH23

Weekly – In the October 2022 downtrend. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are now bullish.

Daily – Flat. In the move up from the 5.70 second long entry on 11/17. Trade pressures are up but rolling over. Volumes are now neutral.

The next target up is 8.00. 7.71 is overbought.

At the 62% target of 6.85. A close below 6.18 would signal lower. 5.75 is oversold.

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXH23

Weekly – Testing the support of the long March 2021 uptrend. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – In the move down from the 110 break. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is the 200 day MA at 104.50.

A close above  107.30 would signal higher.

 

US 30YR T-BOND_ USH23

Weekly – in the January 2022 downtrend. Trade pressures are up Volumes are bullish.

Daily – in the move up from the 121-07 long entry price on 11/10. Trade pressures are up. Volum es are bullish.

The next target up is 131-13.

A close below 127-00 would signal lower.

 

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGH23

Weekly – The 3.96 held as resistance/ Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes remain  bullish.

Daily – Flat. In the move down from the 3.82 short entry on 11/15. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 3.42. 3.51 is oversold.

A close above 3.66 would signal higher. 3.93 is overbought.

 

GOLD_ GCG23

Weekly – In the July 2022 downtrend. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – Flat. In the move down from the 1755 level on 11/21. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 1703. 1716 is oversold.

A close above 1776 would signal higher. 1798 is overbought.

 

SILVER_ SIH23

Weekly – In the May 2022 downtrend. Testing the resistance. Trade pressures are up but rolling over. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – Flat. In the move down from the 21.67 short entry on 11/16. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are now bullish.

The next target down is 20.78.

A close above 21.90 would signal higher.

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Summary:

Copper is in the move down. Gold is in a pullback after the 150 pt move up. Silver is in a short trade.

Crude oil is in a short trade. Natural gas is consolidating at over-sold levels.

The US 30 yr Treasury is in a steady move up, despite over sold 10 yr yields.

The US Dollar futures are oversold.

____________________

S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – Still holding above prior month close. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes close the month of October as bearish. The next target down is 3008. A close above 4138 would confirm any weekly move higher.

Weekly – In the move up off the 3674 entry price for the week ending 10/21. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 4190. A close below 3851 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat. Forming a bull flag in these last four days. Trade pressures are up and still showing divergence. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 4190. Overbought levels are now at 4013. a close below 3851 would signal lower. Oversold expectations are at 3669 and the next projected target down would be 3629.

___________________

Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is marked to the market and is restarted at $100,000 for the 2022 year.

The portfolio stocks closed up 39% for the 2021 Year.

This week’s market closed down. The portfolio value move down 5% to approximately $71,000. The energy stocks fell with the crude futures. The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is now down 29%.

At the open Monday, CF Industries (CF), Devon Industries (DVN), Petro Brazil (PBR), and Sociedad Quimica (SQM) will be replaced by Conoco Phillips (COP), Imperial Oil (IMO), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Valero Energy (VLO).

[The author may have long or short positions in any of the securities mentioned.]

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXZ22

Weekly – Second week of testing the support levels. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish for four weeks now.

Daily – Now consolidating at the 105.63 oversold levels. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 104.48, the 200 day MA.

A close above 107.77 would signal higher and would target the expected overbought levels of 112.87.

 

US 30YR T-BOND_ USZ22

Weekly – In the January 2022 downtrend. Trade pressures are rising into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – Flat. Never got a pullback to re-enter long around the 121 level. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

A small bull flag is forming, need a break above the channel at 126-28. Then, the next target up is 132-17.

10 year yields are at oversold levels. A close below 123-29 on the 30yr would signal lower.

 

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLZ22

Weekly – In the September 2022 downtrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Short in the move down from the 83.41 entry on 11/17. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bullish.

The next target down is 72.49. TP at 72.49.
The oversold level is now 81.02 and close was 80.11, so lower SL to 81.02.

A close above 81.94 would signal higher.

[11/21/22: Rollover. Sell @ mkt.]

 

NAT GAS_ NGZ22

Weekly – In the October 2022 downtrend. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Flat. In the consolidation after the low of 5.30 on 10/24. Trade pressures are up but rolling over. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is the long entry at 6.50.

A close below 6.15 would signal lower.

A always, this is a very high volatility market, so high risk.

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGZ22

Weekly – In the May 2022 downtrend. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. Resistance held.

Daily – Short. In the move down from the 11/16 entry at 3.78. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 3.54. TP at 3.54.

A close above 3.72 would signal higher. Use 3.72 as SL.

[11/21/22: Lower SL to 3.60.]

[11/22/22: Stopped out at 3.60.]

 

GOLD_ GCZ22

Weekly – In the July 2022 downtrend. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bullish.

Daily – Flat. Near the new short entry, volumes do not confirm. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral.

The next target down is the new short entry at 1748. Oversold is at the 1682 level.

A close above 1768 would signal higher. Overbought is at the 1815 level.

[11/21/22: GCZ22 Short at 1748. Set SL at BE. TP @1701. Close Trade on Wednesday before TG.]

[11/22/22: Stopped out at BE. 1748.]

 

SILVER_ SIZ22

Weekly – In the May 2022 downtrend. Testing the upside resistance. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are

bullish.

Daily – Short. In the move down from the 21.33 entry on 11/17. Trade pressures are down, Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 20.60, then 20.18. TP at 20.18.

A close above 21.67 would signal higher. Use 21.67 as the SL.

[11/21/22: Lower SL to 21.00.]

[11-22-22: Stopped out in the overnight trading @ 21.00]

Navellier Top 5 Stocks for December

The following is provided by Navellier with technical comment from South Ocean Management – pls do your own due diligence.

(For this 2022 year, SOM will track the Top 5 Hi-Growth Investments.)

https://navelliergrowth.investorplace.com/

High-Growth Investments

ConocoPhillips

ConocoPhillips (COP) is one of the largest independent exploration and production companies in the world. With an extensive energy portfolio that spans 14 countries, ConocoPhillips transports oil and natural gas around the world through its pipelines, as well as on tankers, trucks and rails. So, the company has profited from increased energy demand and rising prices.

During the third quarter, production rose to 1,754 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (Mboed). In turn, ConocoPhillips achieved adjusted earnings of $4.6 billion, or $3.60 per share, or 91.7% year-over-year earnings growth. The consensus estimate called for adjusted earnings of $3.44 per share.

In the wake of its third-quarter earnings beat, the analyst community has upped fourth-quarter earnings estimates by nearly 3% in the past week. Fourth-quarter earnings are now forecast to grow 52.9% year-over-year to $3.47 per share. COP is a Conservative buy below $146.

SOM Technicals:

5-1-22: Closed at 95.52. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 100.57.

5-6-22: Closed at 107.69. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 108.75.

5-14-22: Closed at 103.78. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are neutral. The next target up is 104.

5-21-22: Closed at 105.02. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The next target down is 100.93.

5-29-22: Closed at 114.85. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 121.40.

6-05-22: Closed at 118.12 . Trade pressures are up but turning down. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 122.59.

6-11-22: Closed at 116.40. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 112.16.

6-18-22: Closed at 93.74. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 85.88.

6-25-22: Closed at 90.94. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 86.62.

7-2-22: Closed at 90.98. Trade pressures are in the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 101.14.

7-9-22: Closed at 86.48. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bearish. The next target up is 95.02.

11-19-22: Closed at 128.59. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is the support at 123.08.

11-27-22: Closed at 126.81. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 115.95.

12-2-22: Closed at 122.18. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 115.95.

12-11-22: Closed at 109.95. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 93.41.

12-16-22: Closed at 110.44. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is the 200 day MA at 105.69.

 

Imperial Oil Limited

Imperial Oil Limited (IMO) is the largest petroleum product refiner in Canada, refining raw hydrocarbons into 650 petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel, natural gas, heating oil and lubricants. Imperial Oil boasts that it provides nearly a quarter of all the petroleum products that are used in Canada every day.

In the third quarter, Imperial Oil produced 430,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed), and its refining throughput averaged 426,000 boed, with 100% capacity utilization. Third-quarter earnings soared 123.7% year-over-year to C$2.03 billion, or C$3.24 per share, while adjusted earnings jumped 100.8% year-over-year to C$1.82 billion. In U.S. dollar terms, Imperial Oil reported earnings of $2.43 per share, which topped estimates for $2.13 per share by 14.1%.

Imperial Oil also remains committed to rewarding its shareholders. It will pay a fourth-quarter dividend of $0.44 per share on January 1, 2023. All shareholders of record on December 2 will receive the dividend. The stock has a 2.3% dividend yield. IMO is a Conservative buy below $62.

SOM Technicals:

11-19-22: Closed at 56.46. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 32.82.

11-27-22: Closed at 57.32. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are neutral. At upper resistance, the next target up is the breakout at 57.56.

12-2-22: Closed at 55.93. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 52.82.

12-11-22: Closed at 50.01. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volum es are bearish. The next target down is 46.64.

12-16-22: Closed at 46.75. Trade pressures are down hard. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 44.46.

 

Marathon Oil Corporation

Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO) operates in several of the top oil and natural gas-producing regions in the U.S., with operations in Eagle Ford, Bakken Shale, the Permian Basin and STACK/SCOOP. The company anticipates that it will produce between 285 million and 290 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (Mboed) this year.

Given third-quarter operational results, Marathon Oil is well on its way to achieving this goal: Third-quarter production totaled 295,000 Mboed. Oil production accounted for 166,000 million barrels.

Marathon Oil also reported third-quarter adjusted earnings of $832 million, or $1.24 per share, and revenue of $2.25 billion, which represented 168.4% year-over-year earnings growth and 54.6% year-over-year revenue growth. The consensus estimate called for adjusted earnings of $1.19 per share on $2.02 billion in revenue. MRO is a Moderately Aggressive buy below $36.

SOM Technicals:

3-26-22: Closed at 26.04. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. In consolidation. A close below 25.00 would signal lower.

4-2-22: Closed at 25.75. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone, Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 26.22, the prior high.

4-10-22: Closed at 25.92. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 26.40 the prior high.

5-1-22: Closed at 24.92. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are neutral. The next target up is 27.27.

5-6-22: Closed at 28.15. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 29.00.

5-14-22: Closed at 27.00. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 27.35.

5-21-22: Closed at 27.26. Trade pressures are down but turning up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is the 28.44 resistance.

5-29-22: Closed at 31.24. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 34.09.

6-05-22: Closed at 31.60. Trade pressures are up but rolling over. Volumes are bullish. A break below 30.58 would signal lower.

6-11-22: Closed at 30.10. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 27.90.

6-18-22: Closed at 24.15. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 20.39.

6-25-22: Closed at 22.05. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 20.62.

7-2-22: Closed at 22.56. Trade pressures are in the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 20.90.

7-9-22: Closed at 21.72. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral. The next target up is 24.55.

7-30-22: Closed at 24.80. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 28.90.

8-6-22: Closed at 21.77. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is a retest of the low at 19.42.

8-12-22: Closed at 24.06. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 28.90.

8-21-22: Closed at 24.46. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 28.90. 

8-27-22: Closed at 26.16. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 28.90.

9-2-22 Closed at 25.71. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are now neutral. The next target up is 28.90.

9-9-22: Closed at 25.61. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are now neutral. The next target up is 27.55.

9-16-22: Closed at 23.10. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now bullish. The next target up is 27.92.

9-23-22: Closed at 21.90. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 21.01.

10-1-22: Closed at 22.60. Trade pressures are rising into the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is a retest of the 21.01 level.

10-8-22: Closed at 27.94. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bearish. At the upper bound of the pitchfork. A close below 27.20 would signal lower.

10-16-22: Closed at 27.05. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The next target down is the 25.45 new short entry.

10-22-22: Closed at 29.15. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 34.01, but at resistance now.

10-29-22: Closed at 30.16. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are now neutral. The next target down is 27.84.

11-5-22: Closed at 32.03. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 34.01.

11-11-22: Closed at 32.88. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are now neutral. The next target up is 33.42.

11-19-22: Closed at 30.56. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bullish. The next target down is 29.97.

11-27-22: Closed at 30.38. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is support at 29.07.

12-2-22: Closed at 29.74. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 26.51.

12-11-22: Closed at 26.17. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 24.88.

12-16-22: Closed at 27.33. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral. the next target down is the 200 day MA at 26.20.

 

Occidental Petroleum Corporation

Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) has provided energy exploration and petrochemical manufacturing services for more than 100 years. The company has energy and chemical assets around the world, including in the U.S., Africa, Latin America and the Middle East. Here in the U.S., Occidental Petroleum has operations in the Permian Basin, Rocky Mountains and the Gulf of Mexico.

In the third quarter, Occidental Petroleum produced 1,180 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (Mboed). Total U.S. production was 944 Mboed in the third quarter. During the first nine months of the year, the company achieved total production of 1,136 Mboed, with 902 Mboed in the U.S.

Given the strong operational results, Occidental Petroleum posted robust third-quarter results. Adjusted earnings surged 180.4% year-over-year to $2.44 per share, up from $0.87 per share in the same quarter a year ago. Third-quarter revenue came in at $9.5 billion. The consensus estimate called for earnings of $2.46 per share on $9.5 billion in revenue. OXY is a Moderately Aggressive buy below $82.

SOM Technicals:

8-27-22: Closed at 73.56. Trade pressures are up but turning down. Volumes are now neutral. The next target down is 71.86.

9-2-22: Closed at 68.77. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 67.25.

9-9-22: Closed at 64.61. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 57.39.

9-16-22: Closed at 64.41. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 57.38.

9-23-22: Closed at 58.73. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now neutral. The next target down is 57.39.

11-19-22: Closed at 71.25. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bullish. The next target down is 66.26.

11-27-22: Closed at 70.28. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 66.26.

12-2-22: Closed at 68.21. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 63.94.

12-11-22: Closed at 62.60. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 56.41. 

12-16-22: Closed at 62.53. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target  down is 56.41.

 

Valero Energy Corporation

Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is the biggest independent petroleum refiner worldwide and a top producer of renewable fuels in North America. The company currently owns 15 petroleum refineries in the U.S., Canada and U.K., with the capacity to produce about 3.2 million barrels per day. Valero Energy also produces corn ethanol and 700 million gallons of renewable diesel, as well as operates 33 wind turbines.

Valero Energy is making its first appearance on the Top Stocks list this month, as the company recently released blowout quarterly results. Third-quarter adjusted earnings surged 413.8% year-over-year to $2.8 billion, or $7.14 per share, beating estimates for adjusted earnings of $6.84 per share. Revenue rose 50.6% year-over-year to $44.45 billion, which bested estimates for $43.26 billion.

Thanks in part to the stunning third-quarter results, the analyst community has upped fourth-quarter estimates by 62.5% in the past three months. Fourth-quarter earnings are now forecast to soar 184.2% year-over-year to $7.02 per share, while revenue is expected to grow 22.3% year-over-year to $43.89 billion. VLO is a Conservative buy below $153.

SOM Technicals:

11-19-22: Closed at 137.82. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The next target down is 127.30.

11-27-22: Closed at 138.40. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 135.25, the new short entry.

12-2-22: Closed at 127.07. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 125.07.

12-11-22: Closed at 114.65. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 113.53.

12-16-22: Closed at 119.37. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish. The next target up is 123.78