Author: ChasW

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLJ25

Weekly – In the January 2025 uptrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

Daily –Short. In the move down from 76.59 on 1/21.  Trade pressures moved up in a rally attempt then failed. Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 68.18.  The expected oversold level declines to to 69.85.

Need a close above 77.22 level to signal higher.  The expected overbought levels declines to 74.70.

[Set a SL at the parallel line breakout, @71.77.]

[2-18-25: Stopped out a the 71.77 level.]

 

NAT GAS_ NGH25

Weekly – In the new January 2025 uptrend. Trade pressures still in neutral zone.  Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Flat.  In the move up from 3.22 on 2/3 and above the oversold level. Trade pressures remain up.  Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is the upper median line H at 3.84. The expected overbought level declines to 3.76.

A close below 3.61 would signal lower. The expected oversold level declines to 2.90.

[the OB/OS levels are turning down]

 

 

 

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGH25

Weekly – In the September 2024 uptrend; rally took it to resisitance. Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Flat. In the move up from the 4.32 bull flag breakout on 2/4. The 4.81 target was met and triggered a retracement. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain bearish.

The next target up is 4.92. The expected overbought levels rise to 4.88.

The next target down is 4.55. The expected oversold levels rise to 4.41.

 

GOLD_ GCJ25

Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend, breaks out of resistance.  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are now bearish..

Daily – Short. In the new move down, a retracement down from the trendline break at 2903 on 2/14. Trade pressures are up but declining.  Volumes are now bearish.

The next target down is 2838. The expected oversold level rises to 2853.

A close above 2940 would signal higher. The expected overbought level rises to 2973.

[Set a SL at 2838.] [shoud be 2938]

[2-18-25: Stopped out at 2938.]

 

SILVER_ SIH25

Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Flat. In the new move down from the failure to break the 33.14 resistance on 2/14.  Trade pressures are up out of the neutral zone.  Volumes remain bearish.

The next target down is 31.70. The oversold levels are 31.35.

A close above 33.12 would signal higher. Overbought levels are 33.98.

[Short term trend is 32.57. Need a break below to continue lower.]

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Summary:

Copper support held then big rally.  Gold continues rally. Silver breaks above the bull flag, but can’t move beyond the upper median line.

Crude support fails.  Natural Gas finds resisitance at the uptrend median line parallel.

The US 30yr Treasury Bond in a move up off the 110 lows. The 10yr yields now around 4.50%.

The US Dollar is a long again.

_________________

S&P 500 Futures   #ESH25

Monthly –Monthly bar contained within the Median line parallels from October 2022. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of January as bullish.  The 6181 price remains the high. The next target up is 6633.  A close below 5870, would confirm a weekly move lower. The next target down would be 5523.

Weekly – The weekly has another lower close.  Trade pressures remain down. Volumes remain bullish. This weeks close has formed another lower high. A close below 5867 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat. The previous short found support at the low 5900’s, then attempted a new move up which met the same resisitance at the downward trendline from the December 6181 high at 6067 on 1/31.
Trade pressures are down again to the neutral zone.  Volumes are now bullish.
Use this rally to short a move below 6030. The next target down is 5992.
A close above 6075 is also required to start a new move up.

The expected oversold level declines to 5977.
The expected overbought level declines to 6101.

[2-11-25: Fed Day Wednesday. Short at 6075 with the OB level at 6099. SL at 6123.]

[2-12-25: premarket drops on higher than expected inflation core numbers.  Lower SL to BE at 6075.]
[Rallied to 6075 in the late morning session. Flat.]

___________________

Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is marked to the market and is restarted at $100,000 for the 2024 year.

These Navellier Top 5 portfolio stocks closed:
Down 35% for the 2022 Year.
Up 17% for the 2023 Year.
Up 42% for the 2024 Year.

Portfolio stock values for 2025. 
The portfolio value rises to $116,000.
The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is  up 16%.

[The author may be long or short any of these issues mentioned],

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXH25

Weekly –  In the October 2024 uptrend.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Long. In the new move up from the 107.85 long entry on 2/7. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are now bullish.

The next target up is 108.63 . The expected overbought level rises to 108.99.

A close below 107.66 would signal lower. The expected oversold levels declines to 106.94.

[choppy]

 

US30YR T-BOND_ USH25

Weekly – In a new October 2024 downtrend.  Trade pressures are down but rising.  Volumes are bearish.

Daily  – Long. In the move up off the 110-20 lows of 1-16, stopped out of the long trade at BE. Market continues to move. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes have turned bearish once again.

The next target up is 117-84. Overbought levels aremain 120-26.

A close below 114-04 would resume the move down. Oversold levels are 113-25.

 

[The 10yr yield overbought level declines to 4.63%, the oversold level is now 4.41%.
Higher inflation expectations continue thru 1Q25 and 2Q25.]

 

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLH25

Weekly – In the new January 2025 uptrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

Daily –Short. In the move down from 76.62 on 1/21.  Trade pressures remain down. Volumes remain bearish.

The next target down is 68.19.  The expected oversold level declines to to 70.23.

Need a close above 73.51 level to signal higher.  The expected overbought levels declines to 74.70.

[2-11-25: Flat. Price touches the 73.51. level.]

 

NAT GAS_ NGH25

Weekly – In the new January 2025 uptrend. Trade pressures declining to neutral zone.  Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Flat.  In the move down from 3.62 on 1/17. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bullish.

A close below 3.33 did signal lower. The expected oversold level declines to 2.90.

Need a close above 3.41 to start a move up. The expected overbought level declines to 3.80.

[Too much volatility to trade. All pressures are down.]

[2-11-25: Pressures now up and price above the 3.41 signal.]

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGH25

Weekly – In the September 2024 uptrend; holding support. Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Long. In the move up from the 4.32 bull flag breakout on 2/4. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain bearish.

The next target up is 4.81. The expected overbought levels rise to 4.51.

The next target down is 4.15. The expected oversold levels rise to 4.26.

[2-6-25: Stopped out of the 4.36 trade at 4.43 on a pullback.]

 

GOLD_ GCJ25

Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend.  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Flat. In the move up from the 2782 break out above the January 26th trend line. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain bullish.

At the 2909 resistance. The expected overbought level rises to 2934.

A close below 2821 would signal lower. The next target down is 2780. The expected oversold level rises to 2726.

A close below 2869 would signal lower, Set as SL.

 

SILVER_ SIH25

Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Flat. In the the move up from 31.54 on 1/30 and at resistance.  Trade pressures are down intoi the neutral zone.  Volumes are now bearish.

At the 33.20 target up is 33.30. Overbought levels are 33.24.

A close below 32.11 would signal lower. The oversold levels are 29.72.

[2-8-25: A close below 32.16, the prior low, would signal lower.]

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Summary:

Copper consolidating at the 4.27 support.  Gold rallies more, still above the OB levels. Silver breaks above the downtrend line from October.

Crude now at support.  Natural Gas breaks below the uptrend parallel.

The US 30yr Treasury Bond in a weak move up off lows. The 10yr yields still holding around the 4.60%.

The US Dollar is a long.

_________________

S&P 500 Futures   #ESH25

Monthly –Monthly bar contained within the Median line parallels from October 2022. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of January as bullish.  The 6181 price remains the high. The next target up is 6633.  A close below 5870, would confirm a weekly move lower. The next target down would be 5523.

Weekly – The weekly has a lower close.  Trade pressures remain down. Volumes remain bullish. This weeks close has formed a “spinning top”, a sign of indecision, and a lower high. A close below 5845 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Short. Failed move up has moved down below the trendline from the December 6181 high at 6067 on 1/31, the close below 6094 has signaled lower. Trade pressures are now down.  Volumes are now bearish.
Look for a rally above 6100 to short as price moves back down thru 6094. The next target down is 5932.
A close above 6094 is also required to start a new move up.

The expected oversold level rises to 5980.
The expected overbought level rises to 6159.

[2-2-25: Sunday Nite session. Gapped lower to 5941. Wait for a retracement.]

[2-4-25: Closed the gap caused by the Monday open down to the oversold level.]

___________________

Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is marked to the market and is restarted at $100,000 for the 2024 year.

These Navellier Top 5 portfolio stocks closed:
Down 35% for the 2022 Year.
Up 17% for the 2023 Year.
Up 42% for the 2024 Year.

Portfolio stock values for 2025. 
The portfolio value drops at $112,000.
The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is  up 12%.

[The author may be long or short any of these issues mentioned],

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXH25

Weekly –  In the October 2024 uptrend.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Long. In the new move up from the 108.00 long entry. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are now bullish.

The next target up is 109.23 . The expected overbought level declines to 108.71.

A close below 107.66 would signal lower. The expected oversold levels declines to 107.10.

[2-4-25: Tariff talk weighing on the dollar. Short at 108.40]

[2-6-25: dowwn to oversold level. A close above 107.85 would signal higher.]

 

US30YR T-BOND_ USH25

Weekly – In a new October 2024 downtrend.  Trade pressures are down but rising.  Volumes are bearish.

Daily  – Long. In the move up off the 110-20 lows of 1-16. Trade pressures have risen, but now declining.  Volumes have turned bearish.

The next target up is 117-84. Overbought levels are 120-26.

A close below 113-25 would resume the move down. Oversold levels are 113-25.

[The 10yr yield overbought level declines to 4.79%, the oversold level is now 4.49%.
Higher inflation expectations continue thru 1Q25 and 2Q25.]

[1-27-25: Long from 113-31 in the early am session. Set SL @ 112-15.] [ Raise the SL to 113-17.]

[1-31-25: Raise the SL to BE at 113-31.]

[2-4-25: Stopped out at the BE, 113-31.]

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLH25

Weekly – In the new January 2025 uptrend. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are neutral.

Daily – Flat. In the move down from 76.62 on 1/21.  Took profits on the first trade down to 72.50. Trade pressures are down. Volumes remain bearish.

The next target down is 70.86, the 200 day MA.  The expected oversold level declines to to 71.80.

Need a close above 73.84 level to signal higher, (could happen in the Sunday nite session.)  The expected overbought levels declines to 77.90.

[2-4-25: immediate reversal to short on 2-3 open. No trade]

 

NAT GAS_ NGH25

Weekly – In the new January 2025 uptrend. Trade pressures are up but declining.  Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Flat.  In the move down from 3.62 on 1/17. Trade pressures are down.  Volumes remain bearish.

A close below 3.33 did signal lower. The expected oversold level declines to 3.01.

Need a close above 3.50 to start a move up. The expected overbought level rises to 4.36.

[Too much volatility to trade.]

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGH25

Weekly – In the September 2024 uptrend; holding support. Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Flat. At 4.27 support. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are now bearish.

The next target down is 4.15. The expected oversold levels decline to 4.21.

A close above 4.32 is required to start a new move up. The expected overbought levels decline to 4.41.

[2-5-25: long at 4.36. SL at 4.33.]

[2-6-25: Raise SL to 4.43.]

 

GOLD_ GCJ25

Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend.  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Flat. In the move up from the 2782 break out above the January 26th trend line. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain bullish.

The next target up is 2871. The expected overbought level rises to 2874.

A close below 2821 would signal lower. The next target down is 2780. The expected oversold level rises to 2726.

[2-5-25: next target up is 2912 and over bought.]

2-6-25: A close below 2864 would signal lower, Set as SL.]

 

SILVER_ SIH25

Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend. Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bullish.

Daily – Flat. In the the move up from 31.54 on 1/30.  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are now bullish.

The next target up is 33.38. Overbought levels are 34.89.

A close below 32.11 would signal lower. The oversold levels are 29.72.

[2-5-25: A close below 32.41 would signal lower.]