Author: ChasW

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXH24

Weekly –  Remains in the new December downtrend.  Trade pressures are down. Volumes are remain neutral.

Daily – Flat.  In the move up from the prior oversold level of 100.26.  Trade pressures are now down.  Volumes remain bullish.

Still in the downtrend, but near Break out at 102.54.  101.52 is the oversold level.

A close above 102.54 would signal higher.  The expected overbought levels are then 103.23.  Continue to expect resistance and possible retracement at this November downtrend line.

 

US30YR T-BOND_ USH24

Weekly – In the new December 2023 uptrend.  Trade pressures remain up but turning down.  Volumes remain neutral.

Daily  – Flat. In a new downtrend with the break below 122-18.  Trade pressures have turned up. Volumes are now neutral.

The next target down is 119-00.  Oversold levels remain 115-12.

A close above 123-15 would signal higher.  The expected overbought levels remain 125-09.

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLH24

Weekly – In the December 2023 downtrend. Trade pressures remain down. Volumes remain neutral.

Daily – Flat.  CL traded up and thru the trendline resistance at73.99 just under the 200 day MA, but retreated and closed below that TL.  Trade pressures are now up.  Volumes remain bearish.

Need a close above 74.74 for a new long entry.  The expected overbought levels are 74.49.

Need a close below 71.00 to confirm any signal lower.  The expected oversold levels are 69.87.  Expecting a new move lower in this 1st qtr. ( Lower demand? Recession?)

 

NAT GAS_ NGH24

Weekly – In the December 2022 downtrend.  Trade pressures are still down but rising.  Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Flat. In the move up from 2.20 on 12/21.  Reached the 2.81 target and is now retracing. Trade pressures are now down into the neutral zone.  Volumes remain bullish.

The next target up is 2.81.  The expected over-bot level would be 3.32.

A close below 2.49 would signal lower.  The next target down is 2.42.  The expected oversold level is 2.40.

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGH24

Weekly – Remains in the December 2023 uptrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now bearish.

Daily – Short. In the move down from the 3.83 level.  Trade pressures are down.  Volumes remain bearish.

The next target down is 3.70.  The expected oversold levels are 3.71.

A close above 3.83 and the confluent  200 day MA would signal higher. The expected overbought levels are 3.91.

[1-12-24: Lower SL to 3.79. Set profit stop at 3.71]

[1-15-24: Stopped out at 3.79.]

 

GOLD_ GCG24

Weekly – In the new December 2023 uptrend.  Trade pressures remain in the neutral zone.  Volumes remain neutral.

Daily – Flat. The retracement down to 2015 initiated a rally.  Trade pressures are up sharply into the bullish. Volumes turned bullish.

Missed this 2017 long trade. The next target up is 2084. The expected overbought level is 2084.

a close below 2034 would signal lower.  The expected oversold level is 2010.

Watch the US dollar for a rally, which could take gold down below the 200 day (2015).

 

SILVER_ SIH24

Weekly – In the December uptrend.  Trade pressures are down.  Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Flat. in a new retracement up within the down move..  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are now bullish.

At the 23.46 test of resistance at the October trend line. The nest target down is 22.26.  Oversold levels remain at 21.62.

A close above 23.79 would signal higher  Overbought levels are 24.63.

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Summary:

Copper still in a retracement down.  Gold near lower channel bound.  Silver continues lower.

The Crude fails new long entry; now making a second attempt.  Natural gas continues the rise in the downtrend.

The US 30yr Treasury Bond in retracement to Median Line. Continue watching 10yr rates, they are at the overbought levels.

The US Dollar futures back above the Median Line. A test of the November downward trendline is next.

_________________

S&P 500 Futures   #ESH24

Monthly – January begins with a selloff. Trade pressures remain down into the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of December as bullish.  The next target up is 5173.  A close below 4530 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly turns down off the 4841 highs.  Trade pressures remain up.  Volumes are now neutral.  The next target up remains 4895.  The next target down is 4701 and would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat, In the move down after a lower high on 1/2.  Trade pressures are down.  Volumes remain bullish.  The next target up is 4901.  The overbought level is 4782, well below the next target up.  Expect lower.  A close below 4701 would signal lower. The expected oversold level is 4660.

___________________

Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is marked to the market and is restarted at $100,000 for the 2023 year.

The Navellier portfolio stocks closed down 35% for the 2022 Year.  The Navellier portfolio stocks closed up 17% for the 2023 Year.

Portfolio values for 2024 closed at approximately $98,000. The Year-to-Date portfolio performance closed down 2%.

[The author may have long or short positions in any of the securities mentioned.]

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXH24

Weekly –  Remains in the new December downtrend.  Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now neutral.

Daily – Flat.  In the move up from the prior oversold level of 100.26.  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are now bullish.

Still in the downtrend.  100.60 is the oversold level.

A close above 102.36 would signal higher.  The expected overbought levels are then 102.98.  Expect resistance and possible retracement here.

 

US30YR T-BOND_ USH24

Weekly – In the new December 2023 uptrend.  Trade pressures remain up.  Volumes are now neutral.

Daily  – Flat. In a new downtrend with the break below 122-18.  Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now bearish.

The next target down is 119-00.  Oversold levels are 115-12.

A close above 123-07 would signal higher.  The expected overbought levels remain 125-08.

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLH24

Weekly – In the new December 2023 downtrend. Trade pressures remain down. Volumes remain neutral.

Daily – Flat.  CL moving up to retest the breakdown at trendline resistance just under the 200 day MA.  Trade pressures are now up.  Volumes close as bullish.

Touched 69.53 and rallied to 74.00. The expected oversold levels are 69.19.

Need a close above 75.33 to confirm any signal higher.  The expected overbought levels are 75.47.  Expect a new move lower. ( Lower demand? Recession?)

 

NAT GAS_ NGH24

Weekly – In the December 2022 downtrend.  Trade pressures are still down but rising.  Volumes are now bullish.

Daily – Flat. In the move up from 2.20 on 12/21.  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes remain bullish.

Closed above the 2.53 target. The next target up is 2.81.  The expected over-bot level would be 2.83.        [1-9-24: Overbought is now 3.04]

A close below 2.47 would signal lower.  The next target down is 2.42.  The expected oversold level is 2.30. Nothing easy here.

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGH24

Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are now neutral.

Daily – Short. In the move down from the 3.83 level, and at 3.80 support.  Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 3.71.  The expected oversold levels are 3.82.

A close above 3.86 and the confluent  200 day MA would signal higher. The expected overbought levels are 3.94.

Use 3.86 as the SL.

[1-9-24: Lower SL to BE ,3.83.]

[1-12-24: Lower SL to 3.79. Set profit stop at 3.71]

 

GOLD_ GCG24

Weekly – In the new December 2023 uptrend.  Trade pressures remain in the neutral zone.  Volumes remain neutral.

Daily – Flat. In the move up from 2060 on 12/22.  The retracement down has taken price below the long entry.  Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes remain neutral.

Reached the upside target of 2097. The next target up is 2065. The expected overbought level is 2100.

The lower channel bound and the 200 day MA meet at 2014 in mid January.  The expected oversold level is 2036.  Look for a new long entry between 2014 and 2036.

Watch the US dollar for a rally, which could take gold down below the 200 day.

[1-9-24: Looking for Long around 2015.]

 

SILVER_ SIH24

Weekly – In the new December uptrend.  Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are now bearish.

Daily – Flat. The selloff continues.  Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are bearish.

At the 23.26 target. The nest target down is 22.25.  Oversold levels remain at 21.62.

A close above 23.81 would signal higher  Overbought levels are 24.21.

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Summary:

Copper in a retracement down.  Gold retraces at the upside channel bound.  Silver breaks down after failed retest of the previous highs.

The Crude fails new long entry; now moving down to test prior lows.  Natural gas continues the rise in the downtrend.

The US 30yr Treasury Bond reached upside target of 125-25. Expect retracement; watching 10yr rates.

The US Dollar futures fail at the upper channel of the downtrend.  Falling below the Median Line.

_________________

S&P 500 Futures   #ESH24

Monthly – December closes the year approaching all time highs. Trade pressures remain down into the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of December as bullish.  The next target up is 5173.  A close below 4530 would confirm any move lower.

Weekly – The weekly continues the move up off the 4362 long entry on 11/03 and has closed just below the oversold level of 4891.  Trade pressures remain up.  Volumes remain bullish.  The next target up is 4926. A close below 4570 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat, In the move up after the 12/13 break above the 4716, triggering a long entry for a third leg up.  Trade pressures are up but declining.  Volumes remain bullish.  Year-end closed at 4820, above the the 4844 target.  The next target up is 4901.  A close below 4701 would signal lower. Year-end selling in the major indices suggest more follow thru selling after the New Year starts.

___________________

Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is marked to the market and is restarted at $100,000 for the 2023 year.

The Navellier portfolio stocks closed down 35% for the 2022 Year.

Portfolio values closed at approximately $117,000. The Year-to-Date portfolio performance closed up 17%.

Nvidia (NVDA) and Novo-Nordisk (NVO) are replaced with Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) and TopBuild Corp (BLD).

The Portfolio profit will be realized and the stocks will be rebalanced to reflect the new starting balance of $100,000 as of the first trading day of the year.

[The author may have long or short positions in any of the securities mentioned.]

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXH24

Weekly –  Remains in the new December downtrend.  Trade pressures are down. Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Flat.  In the move down from the upper trend line resistance.  Trade pressures are down.  Volumes are now neutral.

Still in the downtrend.  100.26 is the oversold level.

A close above 102.38 would signal higher.  The expected overbought levels are then 102.57.

 

US30YR T-BOND_ USH24

Weekly – In the new December 2023 uptrend.  Trade pressures remain up.  Volumes remain bullish.

Daily  – Flat. Remains in the upward channel.  In the move up from 114-12 on 11/14.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes are now bullish.

At the 125-25 target.  The next target up is 126-10.  Overbought levels are 130-17.

A close below 123-12 would signal lower.  The expected oversold levels remain 115-14.

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLH24

Weekly – In the new December 2023 downtrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral.

Daily – Flat.  CL breaks below trendline support just under the 200 day MA.  Trade pressures are now down.  Volumes close as bearish.

The next target down is 69.33. The expected oversold levels are rising to 71.01.

Need a close above 76.30 to confirm any signal higher.  The expected overbought levels are 75.92.

 

NAT GAS_ NGH24

Weekly – In the December 2022 downtrend.  Trade pressures are still down.  Volumes are now neutral.

Daily – Flat. Rising off the 2.09 lows.  Trade pressures are up.  Volumes are bullish again.

A close above 2.51 would signal higher.  The expected over-bot level would be 2.64.

The year-end close breaks down below the trend line support. The next target down is 2.26; below the expected oversold level of 2.35.