Author: ChasW

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGU23

Weekly – In the May 2023 downtrend. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Long. Stopped out at 3.90 for a small gain.  Trade pressures are down but turning up. Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is 3.61.  Oversold levels are now 3.70.

A close above 3.91 would signal higher. The expected overbought levels are now 3.3.96.

 

GOLD_ GCZ23

Weekly – In the December 2022 uptrend. Still testing the support levels. Trade pressures are back down into the neutral zone. Volumes remain neutral.

Daily – Short. In the move down from the 1981 short signal on 8/2. Trade pressures are now down. Volumes are now bearish.

The next target down is 1927. The expected oversold levels are lower lows at 1928.

Look for a new long at support around 1927. The next target up is 1999. The expected overbought levels are 2012.

 

 

SILVER_ SIU23

Weekly – In the April 2023 uptrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral.

Daily – short in the move down from the 24.39 level on 8/2. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

The next target down 22.81.  Oversold levels are 22.28.

A close above 23.83 would signal higher. Overbought levels are expected at 24.44.

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Summary:

Copper is a long trade.  Gold and Silver need a pullback toward the 200 day MA.

The Crude broke thru to the upside, support now at the 200 day MA. Natural gas rises.

The US 30yr Treasury Bond long fails once again.

The US Dollar futures are now at resisitance.

_________________

S&P 500 Futures #ESU23

Monthly – Another close at new recovery highs at 4634. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of June as bullish. The next target up is 4961. A close below 4323 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly is in the long trade from the 4512 entry. Trade pressures are still up. Volumes remain bullish. Thru the 4558 resistance. A close below 4452 is needed to confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Long, from the 4428 long signal off the May lows on 7/11.  Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are now neutral at the end of the week. The next target up 4673. In overbought territory at 4581.

A new short entry is nearby at 4533. A retracement target down to 4497 could signal a buy of the dip. The expected oversold level is now 4465. Tight stops.

[8-2-23: long trade from 4512 stopped out at 4533.]

___________________

Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is marked to the market and is restarted at $100,000 for the 2023 year.

The Navellier portfolio stocks closed down 35% for the 2022 Year.

Portfolio values closed up slightly at approximately $119,000. The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is now up 19%.

Builders First Choice (BLDR) and Quanta Svcs (PWR) will be replace with DR Horton (DRI) and First Solar (FSLR) at the Monday’s Open.

 

 

[The author may have long or short positions in any of the securities mentioned.]

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXU23

Weekly –  In the November 2022 downtrend and testing the upside resistance. Trade pressures are now down. Volumes are now bearish.

Daily – Long. The short moved to 99.22 and is now above the long signal at 100.26.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes have turned to neutral.

The next target up is 101.81. The expected overbought levels are 101.30.

A close below 100.01 would signal lower. The expected oversold levels are now 99.66.

 

US30YR T-BOND_ USU23

Weekly – In the October 2021 downtrend and moving away from upside resistance. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now bearish.

Daily  – Flat. Back to 122 support lows. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral..

The next target down is 123-09. Expected oversold levels are 12123-14.

A close above 124-24 would signal higher.  Expected overbought levels are 126-16.

Oil & Gas

CRUDE_ CLU23

Weekly – Remains in the July 2022 downtrend. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – Long, trend change at 74.12 on 7/11. The 200 day MA is holding now as support. Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish.

look for a pull back to support to reenter. The  next target up is 82.99.  The expected overbought levels are now 81.48.

A close below 73.97 would signal higher. The next oversold level is 74.88.

 

NAT GAS_ NGU23

Weekly – In the December 2022 downtrend; holding at long term support. Trade pressures are down but rising into the neutral zone. Volumes are now bullish.

Daily – Flat. After the pullback to 2.55, now triggering a long at 2.62 on 7/28.  Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are now bullish.

The next target up is 2.73. The expected overbought level is 2.82.

A close below 2.56 would signal lower. The expected oversold level is 2.48.

The average daily range is still higher than the distance to next target.
Still too much volatility, Stay Away.

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGU23

Weekly – In the May 2023 downtrend. Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Long. In the move up from the 3.84 long entry on 7/13.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 4.17.  Overbought levels are now 3.95.

A close below 3.80 would signal lower. The expected oversold levels are now 3.75.

[Use the 3.90 as SL.]

[8-1-23: Stopped out in the evening session (Central Time USA)]

 

GOLD_ GCZ23

Weekly – In the December 2022 uptrend. Testing the support levels. Trade pressures are now up. Volumes are now neutral.

Daily – Flat. Now in the December contract. The long signal is now from the 2004 level on 7/26. Trade pressures are now down. Volumes are now neutral.

Pulled back from the breakout to 1984. Look for a new long at support around 1958. The next target up is the nearby 2068. The next overbought levels are 1997.

The next target down is 1966. The expected oversold levels are lower lows at 1942.

 

SILVER_ SIU23

Weekly – In the April 2023 uptrend. Trade pressures are remain up. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – Flat, The move continues after the break out above 22.98 on 7/7, but showing lower highs. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral.

The next target up is 25.47.  Overbought levels are 25.35. In a pullback to support around 23.88.

A close below 23.88 would signal lower. Oversold levels are expected at 23.92.

Navellier Top 5 Stocks for August

The following is provided by Navellier with technical comment from South Ocean Management – pls do your own due diligence.

https://navelliergrowth.investorplace.com/

High-Growth Investments

Coca-Cola FEMSA SAB de CV

Coca-Cola FEMSA SAB de CV (KOF) is the biggest franchise bottler of Coca-Cola beverages in the world, with a vast portfolio of 134 brands. The company operates out of 56 bottling plants and 249 distribution centers, as well as serves more than 270 million people.

On Tuesday afternoon, Coca-Cola FEMSA released results for its second quarter. The company noted that volume grew 7% year-over-year in the quarter, with one billion units delivered for the first time in a quarter. Second-quarter revenue rose 7.2% year-over-year, while earnings grew 6.5% year-over-year. The company achieved second-quarter revenue of 61,428 million pesos and earnings per ADS of 23.45 pesos.

In U.S. dollar terms, Coca-Cola FEMSA earned $1.32 per share in the second quarter. Analysts expected earnings of $1.25 per share, so KOF posted a 5.6% earnings surprise. KOF is a Conservative buy below $91.

SOM Technicals:

4-28-23: Closed at 84.42. Trade pressures are down, but rising.  Volumes are now neutral.  The next target down is 79.84.

5-07-23: Closed at 88.48. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 89.08.

5-13-23: Closed at 88.73. Trade pressures are up but rolling over. Volumes are now neutral. The next target down is 86.56.

5-20-23: Closed at 88.79. Trade pressures are  down but rising. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 86.56.

5-27-23: Closed at 85.10. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 81.89.

6-3-23: Closed at 83.77. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 76.12.

6-10-23: Closed at 88.61. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 91.33.

6-20-23: Closed at 88.57. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. The next target down is 85.91.

6-24-23: Closed at 86.82. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are  now bearish. The next target down is 83.41.

7-1-23: Closed at 83.31. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bullish. The next target down is 82.89.

7-9-23: Closed at 81.63. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bearish.  The next target down is 76.12.

7-15-23: Closed at 84.42. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 86.08.

7-21-23: Closed at 83.33. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are now neutral. The next target is 82.41.

7-29-23: Closed at 84.96. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 86.08.

8-4-23: Closed at 81.05. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 86.08.

8-11-23: Closed at 82.64. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are now neutral. The next target up is 86.08.

8-18-23: Closed at 86.75. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 94.93.

 

Darden Restaurants, Inc.

Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) owns and operates well-known, full-service restaurants in the U.S., including the Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, Yard House, Ruth’s Chris Steak House, Cheddar’s Scratch Kitchen, The Capital Grille, Season 52, Eddie V’s and Bahama Breeze. The company welcomes more than 400 million guests to its restaurants each year.

In June, Darden Restaurants reported results for its fourth quarter in fiscal year 2023. The company achieved total sales of $2.8 billion and earnings of $2.61 per share, which represented 6.4% year-over-year sales growth and 15.5% year-over-year earnings growth. The consensus estimate called for earnings of $2.54 per share on $2.77 billion in sales.

Darden Restaurants also provided a strong outlook for its fiscal year 2024, as the company expects total sales between $11.5 billion and $11.6 billion. That’s up from $10.5 billion in fiscal year 2023. The company will also pay a quarterly dividend of $1.31 per share on Tuesday, August 1, to all shareholders of record on July 10. The stock has a 3.1% dividend yield. DRI is a Conservative buy below $179.

SOM Technicals:

7-29-23: Closed at 167.52. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are neutral. The next target up is the prior high at 173.06.

8-4-23: Closed at 162.45. Trade pressures are don. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 157.95.

8-11-23: Closed at 160.49. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 157.96.

8-18-23: Closed at 158.47. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 148.61.

 

First Solar, Inc.

First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) is one of the biggest solar manufacturers in the world, producing thin film photovoltaic (PV) modules. Interestingly, its manufacturing operations are located primarily in the U.S., with two facilities in Ohio, and a third factory is set to come online this year. First Solar expects to have total annual manufacturing capacity of more than 20 gigawatts by 2025.

On Thursday afternoon, First Solar announced better-than-expected quarterly results. During the second quarter, total sales increased 30.5% year-over-year to $810.67 million. Second-quarter earnings soared 205.7% year-over-year to $170.58 million, or $1.59 per share, compared to $55.81 million, or $0.52 per share, in the same quarter a year ago. The analyst community expected earnings of $0.96 per share on sales of $720.55 million, so First Solar posted a 65.6% earnings surprise and a 12.5% sales surprise.

Looking forward to fiscal year 2023, First Solar still expects full-year sales between $3.4 billion and $3.6 billion and earnings per share between $7.00 and $8.00. That compares to sales of $2.62 billion and an earnings per share loss of $0.41 in fiscal year 2022. FLSR is a Moderately Aggressive buy below $248.

SOM Technicals:

4-28-23: Closed at 182.63. Trade pressures are down Volumes are now neutral. The next target down is 178.66.

5-7-23: Closed at 178.60. Trade pressures are down but rising. volumes are now neutral. The next target up is 181.59.

5-13-23: Closed at the 231.69, up 50.00. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are a high volume bullish. The next target up is 249.63. 

5-20-23: Closed at 203.63, retracing the large move up. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral. Maybe going to fill the gap.

5-27-23: Closed at 201.42. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are neutral. The next target up is 211.75.

6-3-23: Closed at 206.60. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are neutral. The next target up is 212.35.

6-10-23: Closed at 192.10. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 181.75.

Closed at 187.15. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 176.81.

6-24-23: Closed at 184.52. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 172.15.

7-29-23: Closed at 208.40. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bearish after the break to the upside. The next target down is 199.10.

8-4-23: Closed at 194.38. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 186.09.

8-11-23: Closed at 204.87. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target down is 186.09.

8-18-23: Closed at 181.91. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 169.46.

 

Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.

Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) is the second-largest supplier of frozen potatoes in the world – and its most-popular product is frozen fries. About 80 million portions of fries are sold each day globally. The company also offers sweet potatoes and vegetable products. And the company’s latest results revealed that its potato products remain in top demand.

During its fourth quarter in fiscal year 2023, adjusted earnings per share jumped 91% year-over-year to $1.22 per share and sales rose 47% year-over-year to $1.7 billion. The consensus estimate called for adjusted earnings of $1.05 per share and sales of $1.66 billion, so Lamb Weston posted a 16.2% earnings surprise and a slight sales surprise.

The fourth quarter capped off a record year for the company in terms of earnings and sales. For its fiscal year 2023, Lamb Weston achieved total sales of $5.35 billion and adjusted earnings of $679 million, or $4.68 per share. That represented 31% annual sales growth and 141.6% annual earnings growth. Analysts expected full-year earnings of $4.49 per share on $5.32 billion in sales. LW is a Conservative buy below $109.

SOM Technicals:

1/28/23: Closed at 98.31. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 100.77, the prior high.

2-3-23: Closed at 98.12. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are now neutral. The next target up is 100.77. Support is at 95.40.

2-18-23: Closed at 100.48. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 108.44.

2-24-23: Closed at 99.98. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now neutral. The next target down is 87.01.

3-4-23: Closed at 101.98. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is a breakout above the prior high at 102.77.

3-11-23: Closed at 97.63. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is the short entry at 97.30.

3-17-23: Closed at 97.62. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bearish. the next target down is 91.83.

3-24-23: Closed at 100.18. Trade pressures are down but rising into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 102.70.

3-31-23: Closed at 104.52. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 107.05.

4-14-23: Closed at 108.71. Trade pressures are up but turning down.  Volumes are bullish. The next target down is 104.23.

4-22-23: Closed at 110.35. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 112.88.

4-28-23: Closed at 111.81. Trade pressures are up . Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 117.72.

5-07-23: Closed at 112.09. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The next target down is 107.56.

5-13-23: Closed at 114.28. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 117.72.

5-20-23: Closed at 114.48. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 117.72.

5-27-23: Closed at 109.45. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are now neutral. The next target down is 104.38.

6-3-23: Closed at 113.27. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is a retest of the 115.34 high.

6-10-23: Closed at 113.62. Trade pressures are rising into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is the prior high at 115.34.

6-20-23: Closed at 114.18. Trade pressures are up but turning down to the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 110.05.

6-24-23: Closed at 114.69. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 111.45.

7-1-23: Closed at 114.95. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 117.72.

7-9-23: Closed at 112.62. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 110.55.

7-15-23: Closed at 112.71. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral. The next target up is 114.06.

7-21-23: Closed at 112.96. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target down is 112.11.

7-29-23: Closed at 102.08. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 95.51.

8-4-23: Closed at 101.94. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 95.51.

8-11-23: Closed at 96.78. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are  bearish. The next target down is 94.14.

8-18-23: Closed at 94.75. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 81.99.

 

Super Micro Computer

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is a well-known, global leader in high-performance server technology solutions. The company primarily provides a wide range of servers, storage, motherboards, workstations and networking solutions, as well as server management software.

Recently, Super Micro Computer provided preliminary results for its fourth quarter in fiscal year 2023. Fourth-quarter sales are expected to be between $2.15 billion and $2.18 billion, nicely higher than company guidance for $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion. Fourth-quarter earnings per share are also anticipated to be between $3.35 and $3.45, compared to previous guidance for $2.21 to $2.71.

Super Micro Computer is scheduled to report final fourth-quarter results on August 8, and analysts have increased earnings estimates in the wake of its preliminary results. The current consensus estimate calls for earnings of $2.84 per share on $1.95 billion in sales, which translates to 8.4% year-over-year earnings growth and 19.5% year-over-year revenue growth. SMCI is an Aggressive buy below $444.

SOM Technicals:

7-1-23: Closed at 250.40. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 253.96.

7-9-23: Closed at 260.89. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 270.18.

7-15-23: Closed at 296.94. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bearish. The next target up is 306.85, the prior high.

7-21-23: Closed at 303.15. Trade pressures are up but down near the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The next target down is 271.97.

7-29-23: Closed at 334.50. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 412 but support is 325.00.

8-4-23: Closed at 338.10. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 412.40.

8-11-23: Closed at 254.43. Trade pressures are down hard. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 231.88.

8-18-23: Closed at 243.55. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 215.81. A close above 254 would signal higher.

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Summary:

Copper is a long trade.  Gold and Silver should rise with the new inflation fears.

The Crude met resistance at the 200 day MA. Natural gas rises.

The US 30yr Treasury Bond long restarts, but ten year yields rise on the renewed inflation fears.

The US Dollar futures are now long after retracement, and responding to the rising rates.

_________________

S&P 500 Futures (Sept contract)

Monthly – A close at new highs at 4590. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of June as bullish. The next target up is 4961. A close below 4279 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly has turned to a long as the 4512 entry is triggered. Trade pressures are still up. Volumes remain bullish. The 4558 target up is offering resistance. A close below 4407 is needed to confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Long, from the 4428 long signal off the May lows on 7/11.  Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are now neutral at the end of the week. The next target up 4673. In overbought territory at 4575; but the breakout continues.

A new short entry is nearby at 4508. A retracement target down is 4467 could afford a buy of the dip. The expected oversold level is now 4360. Tight stops.

___________________

Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is marked to the market and is restarted at $100,000 for the 2023 year.

The Navellier portfolio stocks closed down 35% for the 2022 Year.

Portfolio values closed unchanged at approximately $118,000. The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is now up 18%.

 

[The author may have long or short positions in any of the securities mentioned.]

US$$

#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXU23

Weekly –  In the November 2022 downtrend and testing the upside resistance. Trade pressures are now down. Volumes are now bearish.

Daily – Long. The short moved to 99.22 and is now above the long signal at 100.26.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes have turned bullish.

The next target up is 101.81. The expected overbought levels are 103.31.

A close below 99.91 would signal lower. The expected oversold levels are now 99.08.

Crude up. Inflation fears resurfacing. Ten Year yields are rising.

 

US30YR T-BOND_ USU23

Weekly – In the October 2021 downtrend and moving away from upside resistance. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now bearish.

Daily  – Long. In the new move up from 126-03. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

The next target up is 128-26. Expected overbought levels are 129-07.

A close below 124-11 would signal lower.  Expected oversold levels are 123-14.

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLU23

Weekly – Remains in the July 2022 downtrend. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – Short at 75.79. The 200 day MA is holding as resistance. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are now bullish.

The  next target down is 75.84.  The expected oversold levels are now 71.73.

A close above 77.07 would signal higher. The next overbought level is 77.24.

Set the SL at 77.29.

[7-24-23: Stopped put for a loss.]

 

NAT GAS_ NGU23

Weekly – In the December 2022 downtrend; holding at long term support. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are now bullish.

Daily – Flat. In the move down from the 2.72 short entry.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes are now bullish.

The next target down is 2.62. The expected oversold level is 2.45.

A close above 2.76 would signal higher. The expected overbought level is 2.79.

The average daily range is higher then the distance to next target.
Still too much volatility, Stay Away.

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGU23

Weekly – In the May 2023 downtrend. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – Long. In the move up from the 3.84 long entry on 7/13.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 4.11. Overbought levels are now 3.96.

A new close below 3.77 would signal lower. The expected oversold levels are now 3.66.

 

GOLD_ GCQ23

Weekly – In the December 2022 uptrend. Testing the support levels. Trade pressures are now up. Volumes are now neutral.

Daily – Long. The signal is now long from the 1965 level on 7/18. Trade pressures are now down. Volumes remain bullish.

now in a pullback for the breakout. Look for a new long at support around 1945. The next target up is the nearby 1965. The next overbought levels are 1991.

The next target down is 1934. The expected oversold levels are 1919.

 

SILVER_ SIU23

Weekly – In the April 2023 uptrend. Trade pressures are remain up. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – Long, The move continues after the break out above 22.98 on 7/7. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 26.14.  Overbought levels are 26.00.

In a pullback to support around 24.37. A close below 24.29 would signal lower. Oversold levels are expected at 24.05.