Featured
Author: ChasW
S&P 500 Futures
Market Summary:
The 10yr yields retraced to 4.30 and now rising to 4.42% and resistance. Copper near support. Gold forms a bull flag. Silver at the Median line support near 29.70.
Crude in new move down; breaking another support. Natural Gas is basing, speculative long trade.
The US 30yr Treasury Bond is basing; looking for a long trade entry.
The US Dollar up sharply; but near overbought levels.
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S&P 500 Futures #ESZ24
Monthly –Monthly bar closes higher, but off the highs. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of October as bullish. The 6019 target was touched and did provide resistance. A break below 5729 would confirm any weekly move lower. The next target down then would be 5382.
Weekly – The weekly has a lower close. Trade pressures are just above the neutral zone. Volumes remain low, and bearish. The next target up remains 6057 (new highs). A close below 5920 would confirm any daily move lower.
Daily – Short. In a new move down from the 5948 entry on 11-15. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are bearish.
The next target down is 5752. The expected oversold level rises to 5856.
A close above 5954 would signal higher. The expected overbought level rises to 6129.
Set the SL at 5948.
[11-19-24: Stopped out at 5948, dropped to 5855 then rallied to BE.]
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Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is marked to the market and is restarted at $100,000 for the 2024 year.
The Navellier portfolio stocks closed down 35% for the 2022 Year. The Navellier portfolio stocks closed up 17% for the 2023 Year.
Portfolio stock values for 2024. The portfolio value rises to $151,000. The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is up 51%.
[The author may be long or short any of these issues mentioned],
US$$
#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures
USD_ DXZ24
Weekly – In the new October 2024 uptrend. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.
Daily – Long. Rally continues. Safe Haven?. Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish.
The next target up is 107.10. The expected overbought level rises to 107.57.
The break below the 105.59 signals lower. The expected oversold levels rises to 104.39.
US30YR T-BOND_ USZ24
Weekly – In a new October 2024 downtrend. Trade pressures remain down. Volumes are now bearish.
Daily – Flat. In the move down from 126-16 on 9/18. Trade pressures are now down. Volumes are now bearish.
Retesting the downside target of 115-25. Oversold levels 114-31.
A close above 116-17 would signal higher with a bull flag breakout at. Overbought levels are 117-26.
[The 10yr yield overbought level rises to 4.54%. Inflation expectations still rise thru 1Q25 and 2Q25.]
Oil & Gas
#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures
CRUDE_ CLZ24
Weekly – In the September 2024 downtrend, rising to resistance. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now bearish.
Daily – Flat. In the move down from the test of the 200 day MA at 73.17 on 11/07. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are neutral.
Failed the retest of the 67.57 target. The expected oversold level holds at 67.21.
A close above 69.05 would signal higher. The expected overbought levels decline to 70.34.
NAT GAS_ NGZ24
Weekly – In the August 2024 downtrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes remain bearish.
Daily – Long. In the 11/11 move up from 2.81. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now neutral.
Closed above 2.81 to start a new uptrend. The expected overbought level rises to 3.04.
The next target down is 2.63. The expected oversold level rises to 2.57.
[11-17-24: Set the SL at 2.81.]
[11-20-24: Raise the SL to 2.94. Set profit stop at 3.37 OCO]
Metals
#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures
COPPER_ HGZ24
Weekly – In the September 2024 uptrend but testing support. Trade pressures are down. Volumes remain bearish.
Daily – Flat. In the move down from the 4.47 level on 10/08. Price break the support at 4.11 Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.
No long entry. The expected overbought levels have declined to 4.32.
A close below 4.25 would signal lower. The expected oversold levels decline to 3.96.
GOLD_ GCZ24
Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend. Trade pressures remain up now declining to support. Volumes are now bearish.
Daily – Flat. In the move down from the 2678 break down. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.
A close below 2678 signaled lower. The next target down is 2522. The expected oversold level declines to 2530.
A close above 2595 would signal higher. The expected overbought level is 2798.
SILVER_ SIZ24
Weekly – Still in the December 2023 uptrend but turning down. Trade pressures are down. Volumes remain bearish.
Daily – Flat. The lower high on 10/30 started a new downtrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.
The next target down is 29.56. Oversold levels are 28.97.
Need a close above 30.19 to start a new move up. Overbought levels are 31.72.
S&P 500 Futures
Market Summary:
The 10yr yields rose to 4.47% and now retracing to 4.30%. Copper remains choppy, but China stimulus may help. Gold declines, now forming a bull flag. Silver retests the Median line support at 31.25.
Crude in new move down after election. Natural Gas is basing.
The US 30yr Treasury Bond lower, but looking for a long trade entry.
The US Dollar up sharply on the election results; but near overbought.
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S&P 500 Futures #ESZ24
Monthly –Monthly bar closes higher. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes closed the month of October as bullish. The 6019 target is met and should provide resistance. A break below 5729 would confirm any weekly move lower. The next target down then would be 5382.
Weekly – The weekly has a higher close again. Trade pressures are just above the neutral zone. Volumes remain low, but bullish. The next target up remains 6057 (new highs). A close below 5892 would confirm any daily move lower.
Daily – Flat. Stopped out of the long trade at the 5876 level on 10/23. Trade pressures turned down at the end of October, but now have rallied to up, into and thru the election. Volumes are bullish.
The next target up is 6057. The expected overbought level rises to 6006.
A close below 5948 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 5791.
___________________
Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is marked to the market and is restarted at $100,000 for the 2024 year.
The Navellier portfolio stocks closed down 35% for the 2022 Year. The Navellier portfolio stocks closed up 17% for the 2023 Year.
Portfolio stock values for 2024. The portfolio value rises to $152,000. The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is up 52%.
[The author may be long or short any of these issues mentioned],
US$$
#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures
USD_ DXZ24
Weekly – In the new October 2024 uptrend. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.
Daily – Long. Big election rally off the low pivot at 103.28 and out of the bull flag. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are now neutral.
The next target up is 105.25. The expected overbought level rises to 105.11.
The break below the 104.22 signals lower. The expected oversold levels rises to 103.46.
US30YR T-BOND_ USZ24
Weekly – In a new October 2024 downtrend. Trade pressures remain down. Volumes are now bullish.
Daily – Flat. In the move down from 126-16 on 9/18. Trade pressures are now up. Volumes are now neutral.
At the downside target of 115-25. Oversold levels 115-00.
A close above 118-08 would signal higher and would be confirmed at 120 with a trend line breakout. Overbought levels are 121-30.
[The 10yr yield overbought level rises to 4.19%. Inflation expectations still rise thru 1Q25 and 2Q25.]
Oil & Gas
#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures
CRUDE_ CLZ24
Weekly – In the September 2024 downtrend, rising to resistance. Trade pressures remain in the neutral zone. Volumes are now bullish.
Daily – Flat. In the move down from the test of the 200 day MA at 73.17. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.
Looking for a retest of the 67.57 target. The expected oversold level declines to 67.21.
A close above 70.70 would signal higher. The expected overbought levels decline to 73.91.
NAT GAS_ NGZ24
Weekly – In the August 2024 downtrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.
Daily – Flat. In the December contract. In the 10/14 move down from 3.13. Trade pressures are down. Volumes remain bearish.
The next target down is 2.55. The expected oversold level rises to 2.50.
A close above 2.87 is needed to start a new uptrend. The expected overbought level rises to 3.01.
Metals
#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures
COPPER_ HGZ24
Weekly – In the September 2024 uptrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now bearish.
Daily – Flat. In the election hysteresis. Trade pressures remain in the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral.
Wait for a long entry around 4.25. The next target up is 4.42. The expected overbought levels have declined to 4.51.
A close below 4.25 would signal lower. The expected oversold levels rise to 4.25.
GOLD_ GCZ24
Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend. Trade pressures remain up but declining. Volumes are now neutral.
Daily – Flat. Dropped hard with the dollar rise after the election. In the move up from the 11/7 long entry of 2670. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral.
The next target up is 2730, need a breakout of the bull flag at 2691. The expected overbought level are 2825.
A close below 2678 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 2670.
SILVER_ SIZ24
Weekly – Still in the December 2023 uptrend. Trade pressures remain up but declining. Volumes are bearish.
Daily – Flat. The lower high on 10/30 started a new downtrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.
The next target down is 29.56. Oversold levels are 30.11.
Need a close above 31.97 to start a new move up. Overbought levels are 33.15.
Navellier Top 5 Stocks for November
High-Growth Investments
The Allstate Corporation
The Allstate Corporation (ALL) is a leading insurance provider that’s kept its customers in “good hands” for more than 90 years. Today, Allstate has nearly 193 million policies, and through these policies, it provides a variety of insurance products and services, including auto, boat, motorcycle, homeowners, renters, life and business insurance.
Allstate plans to publish third-quarter results on October 30. While earnings estimates have been lowered recently, third-quarter earnings are still forecast to surge 211.1% year-over-year to $2.52 per share. The company also has a history of posting big earnings surprises, as it topped analysts’ estimates by 76.1%, 45.9%, 30.2% and 335.1% in the past four quarters, respectively.
I should also add that Allstate is one of our High-Growth Investment companies that has a long history of rewarding its shareholders. In fact, Allstate has paid a dividend for a whopping 124 straight quarters! The company paid a dividend of $0.92 per share on October 1. The stock has a 1.9% dividend yield. ALL is a Conservative buy below $202.
SOM Technicals:
8-3-24: Closed at 178.82. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 188.86.
8-11-24: Closed at 171.03. Trade pressures are rising to the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 168.07.
8-16-24: Closed at 178.11. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 175.48.
8-26-24: Closed at 180.51. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 184.31.
8-30-24: Closed at 188.94. Trade pressures are bullish. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 194.68.
9-7-24: Closed at 185.36. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 180.99.
9-14-24: Closed at 188.30. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 191.33, the previous high.
9-28-24: Closed at 188.36. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 183.62.
10-5-24: Closed at 190.57. Trade pressures are rising into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is the prior high at 103.97.
10-12-24: Closed at 188.28. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 193.97.
10-18-24: Closed at 195.37. Trade pressures are up but turning down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 191.33.
10-28-24 Closed at 189.21. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 183.87.
11-8-24: Closed at 196.90. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 198.79, which is resistance.
11-16-24: Closed at 196.88. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The next target down is 192.23.
Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc.
Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. (COKE) bottles and distributes a vast range of beverage products and flavors, including Coca-Cola branded products, as well as well-known energy drinks, sparkling and still beverages, carbonated and non-carbonated drinks.
Recently, Coca-Cola Consolidated increased its quarterly dividend by 400%. The company will now pay a quarterly dividend of $2.50 per share, up from its previous dividend of $0.50 per share. Clearly, the company is confident in its business and its ability to continue to reward shareholders.
Coca-Cola Consolidated will announce third-quarter results on October 30. There still aren’t any analysts following the company, but Coca-Cola Consolidated has continued to post solid earnings and sales growth quarter after quarter – and we are up by roughly 41% in less than a year. COKE is a Conservative buy below $1,385.
SOM Technicals:
8-3-24: Closed at 1274.20. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 1345.00.
8-11-24: Closed at 1259.41. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are bullish. The next target down is 1217.49.
8-16-24: Closed at 1270.17. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 1305.70.
8-26-24: Closed at 1339.75. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 1319.69.
8-30-24: Closed at 1342.40. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The next target down is 1285.96.
9-7-24: Closed at 1329.90. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 1285.96.
9-13-24: Closed at 1296.96. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 1233.97.
9-28-24: Closed at 1295.96. Trade pressures are rising into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 1306.31.
10-5-24: Closed at 1292.09. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 1260.
10-12-24: Closed at 1282.91. Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain neutral. The next target up is 1396.03.
10-18-24: Closed at 1287.46. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is low pivot at 1252.
10-28-24: Closed at 1230.58. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 1134.13.
11-8-24: Closed at 1224.56. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 1258.00.
11-16-24: Closed at 1210.70. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now neutral. The next target down is 1121.11.
Howmet Aerospace, Inc.
Howmet Aerospace, Inc. (HWM) is a Pennsylvania-based company that develops engineered solutions for the aerospace and industrial industries. Specifically, Howmet Aerospace operates four main businesses, including engine products, fastening systems, engineered structures and forged wheels.
The commercial aerospace industry has been a big driver of Howmet Aerospace’s growth in recent years, and that’s been apparent in the company’s recent quarterly results. Second-quarter revenue grew 14% year-over-year to $1.88 billion, and adjusted earnings increased 52.5% year-over-year to $276.0 million, or $0.67 per share. Both were new records and topped analysts’ expectations.
Given the strong second-quarter results, Howmet Aerospace upped its outlook for fiscal year 2024. Full-year revenue is now forecast to be between $7.4 billion and $7.48 billion and adjusted earnings per share are expected to be between $2.53 and $2.57.
In turn, the analyst community has increased third-quarter estimates. For the third quarter, the company is now expected to achieve earnings of $0.65 per share and revenue of $1.85 billion. That translates to 41.3% year-over-year earnings growth and 11.7% year-over-year revenue growth. Howmet Aerospace will release third-quarter results on November 6.
We’re up by more than 30% since adding HWM in our July Monthly Issue. HWM is a Moderately Aggressive buy below $112.
SOM Technicals:
10-28-24: Opened at 102.08. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 102.88.
11-8-24: Closed at 113.65. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are neutral. The next target up is 115.38.
11-16-24: Closed at 112.01. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 108.64.
The Progressive Corporation
The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is a well-known insurance provider, offering everything from car, boat and motorcycle insurance to homeowners, renters and commercial insurance. The company also offers popular insurance bundles, in which folks can bundle their auto and property insurance for lower rates. And Progressive continues to benefit from high insurance rates.
PGR shares have had a strong showing this fall, up about 14% from the beginning of August until today, bringing our total gain to nearly 30% since March. Part of the stock’s recent strength can certainly be attributed to positive quarterly results.
Third-quarter earnings more than doubled year-over-year to $2.33 billion, or $3.97 per share, compared to $1.12 billion, or $1.89 per share in the same quarter a year ago. Analysts expected earnings of $3.66 per share, so Progressive posted an 8.5% earnings surprise.
I should also add that analysts have increased full-year 2024 earnings estimates in the past three months. Progressive is now expected to achieve 113.9% annual earnings growth in fiscal year 2024. PGR is a Conservative buy below $260.
SOM Technicals:
4/27/24: Closed at 205.03. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 199.79.
5-4-24: Closed at 208.72. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bullish. The next target down is 206.06.
5-10-24: Closed at 210.17. Trade pressures are neutral. Volumes are bullish. The next target down is 211.49.
5-18-24: Closed at 209.22. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 201.34.
5-25-24: Closed at 203.91. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 191.19.
6-2-24: Closed at 211.18. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 214.90.
6-8-24: Closed at 212.53. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 219.12.
6-15-24: Closed at 203.92. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bearish. The next target up is 218.20.
6-23-24: Closed at 209.19. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bullish. The next target down is 206.
6-30-24: Closed at 207.71. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish. The next target up is 218.69.
7-5-24: Closed at 210.18. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 205.22.
7-12-24: Closed at 213.30. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 218.69.
7-20-24: Closed at 219.35. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are bearish. The next target down 212.57.
8-3-24: Closed at 216.94. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 240.00.
8-11-24: Closed at 221.73. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 227.32.
8-16-24: Closed at 236.77. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 244.22.
8-26-24: Closed at 242.45. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 246.40.
8-30-24: Closed at 252.20. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 261.59.
9-7-24: Closed at 248.69. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 244.68.
9-14-24: Closed at 255.46. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 267.50.
9-28-24: Closed at 251.10. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 244.03.
10-5-24: Closed at 255.36. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish The next target up is 262.01.
10-12-24: Closed at 254.02. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 256.27.
10-18-24: Closed at 251.12. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 242.32.
10-28-24: Closed at 244.31. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 235.46.
11-8-24: Closed at 261.52. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 266.04.
11-16-24: Closed at 255.78. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 251.43.
Targa Resources Corporation
Targa Resources Corporation (TRGP) is a midstream energy company that provides gathering and processing systems and logistics and transportation systems. The company operates more than 31,000 miles of natural gas pipelines and 53 processing plants, which service top natural gas and crude oil-producing basins in the U.S.
Over the past three months, the analyst community has increased third-quarter earnings estimates by about 11%. As you know, positive analyst revisions typically precede future earnings surprises. So, Targa Resources is likely gearing up for a quarterly earnings surprise on November 5.
Third-quarter earnings are forecast to increase 56.7% year-over-year to $1.52 per share, up from $0.97 per share in the same quarter a year ago. Revenue is expected to dip 4.1% year-over-year to $4.4 billion, compared to $4.6 billion in the third quarter of 2023.
We’ve more than doubled our money with this one, and TRGP remains a Conservative buy below $176.
SOM Technicals:
5-25-24: Closed at 114.28. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 111.90.
6-2-24: Closed at 118.23. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 119.68.
6-8-24: Closed at 118.01. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 119.68.
6-15-24: Closed at 119.00. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 117.63.
6-23-24: Closed at 125.10. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 123.65.
6-30-24: Closed at 128.78. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 130.53.
7-5-24: Closed at 132.49. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 139.71.
7-12-24: Closed at 135.05. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 137.41.
7-20-24: Closed at 136.37. Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain bullish. The next target up is 139.96.
8-3-24: Closed at 130.58. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 126.70.
8-11-24: Closed at 135.69. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 139.35, the prior high.
8-16-24: Closed at 142.83. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 150.00.
8-26-24: Closed at 145.47. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 151.82.
9-28-24: Closed at 146.80. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 140.89.
10-5-24. Closed at 158.02. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 159.07.
10-12-24: Closed at 165.76. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is169.90.
10-18-24: Closed at 162.75. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The next target down is 157.41.
10-28-24: Closed at 164.72. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 160.29.
11-8-24: Closed at 192.28. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 195.00.
11-16-24: Closed at 196.04. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 197.14.