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Author: ChasW
S&P 500 Futures
Market Summary:
Copper has triggered a long entry. Gold again at all time highs. Silver stopped out of long trade.
Crude is a long. Natural Gas shaort is near the profit stop.
The US 30yr Treasury is a long. The 10yr yields rise above 4.50% and then return quickly to the 4.30’s.
The US Dollar still showing lower.
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S&P 500 Futures #ESM25
Monthly –Monthly bar crashes below 4900 and then rallies back above 5000. Trade pressures are in the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of March as bearish. The 6233 price remains the adjusted high. The 4917 target was touched. A close above 5352 would confirm any weekly move higher.
Weekly – The weekly bar consolidating after reversal off the 4900 lows. Trade pressures remain down. Volumes are now neutral. Reached the 4832, the October 2024 low. The close above 5244 confirms the daily move higher.
Daily – Long. In the move up off the 5067 entry level. The long trade was sold as resisitance was met at 5518. Trade pressures are in the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish.
In a pullback forming a bull flag. Need a close above the downtrend resisitance at 5389 to restart the move up. The expected overbought level declines to 5497.
A close below 5277 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 4907.
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Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is marked to the market and is restarted at $100,000 for the 2025 year.
These Navellier Top 5 portfolio stocks closed:
Down 35% for the 2022 Year.
Up 17% for the 2023 Year.
Up 42% for the 2024 Year.
Portfolio stock values for 2025.
The portfolio value is up for the week, now at $114,000.
The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is up 14%.
US$$
#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures
USD_ DXM25
Weekly – In the March 2025 downtrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bullish.
Daily –Short. Short trade from 102.72 retesting 98.80 lows Trade pressures are down. Volumes remain bullish.
The next target down is 97.48. The expected oversold levels declines to 97.64.
A close above 99.74 would signal higher. The expected overbought level declines to 102.48.
US30YR T-BOND_ USM25
Weekly – In a new April 2025 uptrend but quickly drops to support. Trade pressures are down. Volumes remain bearish.
Daily – Long. After the drop to 111-16, a new move thru 114-11 long entry on 4/15 is triggered. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are neutral.
The next target up is 117-15. Overbought levels rise to 122-28.
A close belows 112-31 would signal lower. Oversold levels decline 105-28.
[Set the SL at 113-07.]
Oil & Gas
#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures
CRUDE_ CLM25
Weekly – Breaks down into the new April 2025 downtrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral.
Daily –Long. The long entry tiggered at 61.36 in the 4/16 premarket. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.
The next target up is 65.49. The expected overbought levels declines to 64.20.
A close below 59.89 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 58.09.
[set the SL at 59.89.]
NAT GAS_ NGK25
Weekly – Still in the January 2025 uptrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.
Daily – Short. Breaks uptrend support and triggers the short entry at 3.75 on 4/4. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.
The next target down is 3.16. The expected oversold level declines to 3.10.
A close above 3.32 would signal higher. The expected overbought level declines to 3.76.
[set the SL at 3.32.] [Take profits at the 3.16 target.]
Metals
#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures
COPPER_ HGK25
Weekly – In the September 2024 uptrend. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are neutral.
Daily – Long. The new lang trade was triggered at 4.63 on 4-16. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.
The next target up is 4.85. The expected overbought levels rise to 4.72.
A close below 4.61 would signal lower. The expected oversold levels rise to 4.01.
[set the SL at 4.56.]
GOLD_ GCM25
Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes are bullish.
Daily – Long. Took profits at the 3247 level. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.
A close above 3367 would signal a resumption of the move up. The next target up is 3469. The expected overbought level rises to 3399.
A close below 3314 would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 3084.
SILVER_ SIK25
Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend. Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain neutral.
Daily – Flat. Consolidating at the 32.50 level. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are neutral.
The next target up is 33.94. Overbought levels rise to 36.11.
The next target down is 31.16 The oversold levels decline to 28.79.
S&P 500 Futures
Market Summary:
Copper has triggered a long entry. Gold at all time highs. Silver at the new long entry.
Crude near a long entry Natural Gasis a short.
The US 30yr Treasury, unusually, sells off in a down market. The 10yr yields rise above 4.00%.
The US Dollar crashes below 100.
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S&P 500 Futures #ESM25
Monthly –Monthly bar crashes below 4900 and then rallies back above 5000. Trade pressures are in the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of March as bearish. The 6233 price remains the adjusted high. The 4917 target is met. A close above 55352 would confirm any weekly move higher.
Weekly – The weekly bar gaps lower then reverses higher. Trade pressures remain down. Volumes are now neutral. Reached the 4832, the October 2024 low. The close above 5244 confirms the daily move higher.
Daily – Long. Closed above the long entry price of 5138 in a powerful bear market rally. Trade pressures remain down, but rising. Volumes are neutral (short covering). Resistance is at 5528.
A close above 5528 would signal higher; then 5761. The expected overbought level declines to 5524.
A close below 5192 would signal lower. The expected oversold level declines to 4835.
[ The VIX, a measure of volatility (hedging), is extremely high, rising to 60 at one point. These levels increase the trading risks. Consider standing aside until the volatility declines.]
[Set the SL at 5313.]
[4-14-25: Raise SL to 5372]
[4-16-25: Stopped out for a gain at 5372.]
___________________
Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is marked to the market and is restarted at $100,000 for the 2025 year.
These Navellier Top 5 portfolio stocks closed:
Down 35% for the 2022 Year.
Up 17% for the 2023 Year.
Up 42% for the 2024 Year.
Portfolio stock values for 2025.
The portfolio value is up dramatically for the week, now at $112,000.
The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is up 12%.
US$$
#usdollarfutures #ustreasurybondfutures
USD_ DXM25
Weekly – In the March 2025 downtrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bullish.
Daily –Flat. Rally fails at 102.73, closing at 99.89. (Someone is selling the Dollar hard, it can cause interest rates to rise. Qui Bono?) Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bullish.
The next target down is 97.52. The expected oversold levels declines to 99.51.
A close above 100.81 would signal higher. The expected overbought level rises to 103.52.
US30YR T-BOND_ USM25
Weekly – In a new April 2025 uptrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes remain bearish.
Daily – Flat. The new move up from 116-06 on 3-28 fails at 122-10 with a decline to 113-06. The short signal at 117-28 is triggered on 4/7. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.
The next target down is 104-29. Oversold levels are 105-28.
A close above 114-22. Overbought levels decline to 119-27.
Oil & Gas
#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures
CRUDE_ CLK25
Weekly – Breaks down into the new April 2025 downtrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral.
Daily –Flat. Price crashes to the September lows at 65.12, then moves up to July 2025 median line resistance. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are neutral.
A close above 63.59 would signal higher. The expected overbought levels declines to 66.74.
A close below 58.45 would signal lower. The expected oversold level declines to 55.08.
NAT GAS_ NGK25
Weekly – Still in the January 2025 uptrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.
Daily – Short. Breaks uptrend support and triggers the short entry at 3.75 on 4/4. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.
The next target down is 3.16. The expected oversold level declines to 3.30.
A close above 3.67 would signal higher. The expected overbought level declines to 3.90.
[4-14-25: Set the SL at 3.61.]
[4-16-25: Lower the SL to 3.34.]
Metals
#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures
COPPER_ HGK25
Weekly – In the September 2024 uptrend; teested support and rallied. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral.
Daily – Flat. Shorted from the 5.16 entry and reached the 4.03 low. Trade pressures rise into the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral.
The next target down is 4.01. The expected oversold levels decline to 3.81.
A close above 4.63 would signal higher. The expected overbought levels decline to 4.71.
[4-16-25: Long from 4.63. Set the SL at 4.52]
GOLD_ GCM25
Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend. Trade pressures remain up. Volumes are bullish.
Daily – Long. Took short profits at the 3005 level. Market turns up and triggers the 3074 on 4/9. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.
The next target up is the 3263 high. The expected overbought level rises to 3249.
At resistance. A close below 3205 (also SL) would signal lower. The expected oversold level rises to 3026.
[4-14-25: Sl is 3205. Set profit stop at 3247.]
[4-16-25: Raise SL to 3276.][ 4-16-25: [Profit stop at 3247 executed for a gain.]
SILVER_ SIK25
Weekly – In the December 2023 uptrend, tested support. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral.
Daily – Long. Off the 27.54 low pivot. Long triggered at 31.44 on 4/11. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are neutral.
The next target up is 32.32. Overbought levels rise to 34.52.
The next target down is 26.23 The oversold levels stay at 29.57.
Set the SL at 30.94.
[4-14-25: Raise the SL to 31.42]
[4-16-25: Raise the SL to 32.10 32.53.][Stopped out in the 4/16 night session for a gain.]
S&P 500 Futures
Market Summary:
Copper Short crashed to the confluence of the 200 day MA and the August 2024 lower median line. Gold “take profits” was timely as a $100 drop ensues. Silver drops more than $4.
Crude drops $7. Natural Gas, Long fails.
The US 30yr Treasury breaks out with recession fears. The 10yr yields now around 4.00%.
The US Dollar rallies with the tariffs and the commodities down.
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S&P 500 Futures #ESM25
Monthly –Monthly bar breaks below the lower median line from 10/23. Trade pressures drop into the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of March as bearish. The 6233 price remains the adjusted high. The next target down is 4917. A close above 5594 would confirm any weekly move higher.
Weekly – The weekly bar gaps lower. Trade pressures remain down. Volumes remain bearish. Blew thru the 5324 downside target. The next target down is 5056, then could target the October 2024 low. A close above 5486 would confirm any daily move higher.
Daily – Flat. The week began working higher thinking there would be some measured tariff response. Nope. Dropped quickly from 5682 thru the Measured move at 5180. Trade pressures remain down. Volumes remain bearish.
The next target down is 4773. The expected oversold level declines to 5313.
A close above 5729 would signal higher; then 5793. The expected overbought level declines to 5670.
[ A short term rally could start with a close above 5138 setting 5347 as the upside target; then likely more downside]
A new equity market move up requires “fuel”; new money. That new money needs to see acceleration in earnings and margin expansion. Can that senario develop with oppresive tariffs/taxes? No.
___________________
Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is marked to the market and is restarted at $100,000 for the 2025 year.
These Navellier Top 5 portfolio stocks closed:
Down 35% for the 2022 Year.
Up 17% for the 2023 Year.
Up 42% for the 2024 Year.
Portfolio stock values for 2025.
The portfolio value is down for the week, losing almost all the gains for the year, now at $101,000.
The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is up 1%.