Author: Charlie

S&P futures

Monthly_ Pressures remain up. the next target is 2193.
Weekly_ Pressures are up. the next target is 2122. the short entry is 1916.

Daily_ trade pressures are up. the volume is still green but declining.
the next target up is 2066.  some support is provided by older targets at 1951.
The psychological target is the 2000 on the  S&P cash, which is 1978 now (a 6pt difference).

the MACD is trying to turn back up; but if not then a sell entry could be triggered at 1958.

the intraday (60 min) chart is currently short from 1976 with target at 1963 and 1950.

………….

the money flows from abroad are in our direction as evidenced by the rise in the dollar and the TBonds.
gold does not seem to reflect any major geopolitical dislocation.

earnings flows from individual stocks seem to be the order of the day.

US $$

USD (DX)_
Weekly pressures are up. in the long trade with the next target up of 81.51.

the Daily trade is long from the 79.62 longer cycle entry and also long from the short cycle entry of 80.22.
the next target is 81.55.

79.77 is a stop.

30yr TBond_
The weekly pressures are up. the 137-06 target has been met and the next target up is 144-31.
this level would be a test of the 2012 highs.

the Daily trade is now up after taking out the 138-10 pivot. the next target up is 139-22.

a move down thru 136-27 would restart the move down.

Oil & Gas

CRUDE_
Weekly pressures are up but extended. volume remains up.
the trade is a long term sell. price is in a retracement up.

the long term 109.12 pivot is a stop.

the Daily has triggered a sell at 101.87. the next target down is 94.96.
but both the trade pressures and the volume have turned positive.

a long entry at 104.18 could restart a move up. day by day here seems to be at a balance point and could go either way.

NAT GAS_
Weekly trade pressures and volume pressures are both down.
the weekly has a a downside target of 3.39.

the Daily pressures are also down. The trade is short from 4.53. the next target down is 3.43.

need a move above 4.50 to restart a long trade.

Metals

COPPER_
Weekly trade pressures and volume pressures are up. the weekly is up against the 2013-2014 resistance line.

the Daily is up against the 3,26 target from the March lows. the daily pressures are up.
the next target up is 3.35 from the long entry of 3.23.

stops at 3.17

GOLD_
Weekly gold is still long from the 1242 entry price, with a target of 1434.
But has been range bound and selling volume is coming in now.

the Daily is in a sell from the short entry of 1314. the next target down is 1253.
stops at the 1346 pivot high.

SILVER_
Weekly pressures crossing over to up.
the daily is at the 21.59 target and the 20.91 price has triggered a sell.
selling volume is coming in which could take silver to the 19.75 downside target.

stops at the 21.62 pivot.

S&P Futures

Monthly_ trade pressures are up, volume remains bullish. the upside target is 2193.
Weekly_ trade pressures are up and volume is bullish, the net target up is 2098.

the Daily Trade is long from the 1835 entry price in April.  the 1963 target was almost completed on June 23rd.
the trade pressures are flat. the volume pressure remain up.

a move down thru the 1932 short entry could signal a correction to 1889-1845.
this entry has been approached by  both of the last two day’s lows.

the cash SPX in the chart above shows a break down thru the lower median line; pay attention.

US $$

USD_
with all the Ukrainian tensions and the deflation conversations in Europe one would expect the Dollar to rise as safe have funds moved in this direction.  Weekly pressures are turning up. volume is mixed.

The Daily trade is up from the 79.62 long entry in May.  the next target up is 81.55.
Daily trade pressures are down and volume is down. this move down thru 80.46 could restart the move down to retest the lows.

30yr-Tbonds_
the weekly reached the 137-06 target, pulled back and is testing it once again.
trade pressures are up and the volumes are neutral.

The Daily Trade is short from the 136-27 entry and did test the first downside target of 134-14.
volume pressures are up, trade pressures are up.

Today’s trade up thru 136-19 is a new long entry to 139-22. But the safe bet is to wait for the test of the recent 138-10 high before committing.

Oil & Gas

CRUDE_
weekly volume up for seven weeks, trade pressures are up.

the Daily trade has been up from the 98.29 long entry.
has moved thru the 103 and 104 targets after a brief test. the next target up is 109.12.

the daily trade pressures are down, the last five days have had up volume but today appears to be truning down.

a trade below 102.92 could start anew move down.

NAT GAS_
Weekly Trade pressures are bullish, but with down volume. the long term trade is up with a weekly target of 6.30.

the daily trade is still flat with a long entry of 4.88. trade pressures are down. volume is down.
a trade down thru  4.24 could set the downside target of 3.99.

 

Metals

COPPER_
weekly trade pressures have turned up and the weekly volume pressures have turned neutral from down.
the weekly down side target of 2.89 was met in late March and has provided support since.

a week of daily up volume has taken the daily trade up to the 3.18 prior high from the long cycle short entry of 3.06.

The internal retracement produced the short cycle long entry of 3.08 and is about to test the 3.18 pivot which, if broken, would invalidate the short.

GOLD_
While still in the long term down-trade to 1142, weekly trade pressures are turning up accompanied by a week of up volume.

the Daily trade is up from the long entry price of 1287.  trade pressures and volume pressures are up.
this trade is still inside the long term down-trade, so it is a retracement up inside the longer downtrend and should stop at 1366.

a trade below 1290 could signal lower again.

SILVER_
weekly has not followed gold and remains in the downtrend.  Trade pressures are bearish, but volume is showing some green.
the downside target of 18.70 has held for months.

the daily long entry for the long cycle has been triggered at 20.28. the next target up is 22.91.
There is a short cycle daily retracement trade underway from 19.60 which should stop at 21.59.

long stops at 18.41.

S&P Futures

Monthly – trade pressures and volume pressure remain up. the target remains 2223.

Weekly_ trade and volume pressures remain up. next target up is 2096.

Daily  – trade pressures and volume pressures remain up.
consolidated briefly at the 1906 and 1914 targets.
then with the announcement of easing interest rates in Europe, two good up-days have broken out of that consolidation.
the next target up is 1956 and then 1970.

The 1970 target is a 100% move off the Feb 5th correction low.  so, look for significant resistance there.

a break below 1822 could signal a corrective move down to 1879.

 

[June 18th: have tested the short entry last week, never closed below. now moving to the 1970 target.
an up volume day today.]

US $$

USD_
the weekly DX pressures are down, with down volume.
the 79.25 target is acting as support.

the daily trade is meeting resistance at the 80.46 target. the next target up is 81.45.
trade pressures are up and volume pressures are neutral.

the Euro negative interest rates are designed to brig the euro down and the flow of funds that would be expected from that is toward the dollar, and other currencies. the Euro (jun14 contract) is at 1.3642 at this writing. it has dropped from a high of 1.3992 since May 8th.  Mario Draghi has been telegraphing the interest rate change for some time. Likely to continue.

30YR T-Bonds_
weekly volume has turned negative. trade pressures are up.
the next target up is the old high of 144-31.

the Daily trade is up. currently at multiple targets so meeting resistance.
the trade pressures are down and the volume has been down 6 of the last 7 days.

the next target up is 139-16. last weeks correction as triggered at 136-27 and reached the first target of 134-14 in three days.
the next target down is 132-01.

so, in the flux of worry between an improving domestic economy which might signal higher rates and the lower global interest rates which would cause the flows to come to the US and buy up bonds prices and cause lower rates.  Seems like a prescription for “not much change”.