Daily
in the uptrade. the next target 1139 and the 1148 highs. 1097 will warn of a new down leg to 1071.
the cycle ends 3-09. it is not unusual to have a hard down move into that cycle end.
Author: Charlie
DX US $
a friend suggests tracking the dollar as a means of watching the flow of funds. the metals amd minerals are tied to this flow, and depending on their sector exposures so is the S&P 500 Index.
Longer term trends are down but we are in a weekly retracement uptrend from 77. we have met the 79.75 target, next target is 82.50. i do see divergence forming here and trade pressures are extended up.
77.49 is the entry for a new down leg.
Daily –
the upmove has stopped at the final target. all indicators are extended. the down cycle ended last week. a trade thru 79.40 starts a down move. and with the new cycle starting up, the first target at 77.40 is the most likely. a trade thru the recent high will start a new up leg.
Metals
Gold –
in the weekly down trade to 1040.61, next down side target is 996.40.
Daily has triggered the short entry at 1100 to 1069 and now is in a upward retracement; mind your stops – a trade thru 1130 will reverse this short trade. trade pressures are down, cycle pressures are up.
Silver –
in the weekly short trade to 12.50. trade pressures turning up.
daily, much the same as gold, trying to trade up to next target of 16.83 and the 15.50 short entry price is acting as support.
Platinum –
in a long term up trade next target is 1868.80. trade pressure extended up. 1303 is the short entry price.
daily trade pressures are up and the cycle pressures are down til Mar 18th. 1582 next target. short entry price is a close below 1505 (which has been tested 3 times last week). next down target is 1454.80.
Palladium –
the pull back to 380 has set a new long entry price at 449 close. trade pressures are up.
However the Daily has triggered a short at 429 to 406.60 and trade pressures are down. appears to be a pull back in the longer term up trend.
Light Crude
weekly remains the same. a 52.86 price would signal much lower.
the target of 80.31 is acting as short term resistance, the entry price of 77.04 for the new down trade was touched but is acting as support for the upmove. trade pressures are fully extended up, cycle pressure turns up march 3rd.
S&P Futures
The monthly cycle remains in the uptrend to 1209. the short entry price is 950. trade pressures are down and the longer time cycle is down but should turn to up in October 2010. a shorter up cycle begins now.
the weekly remains in the down trade with the first target of 1008. a long cycle ended last week. a shorter cycle is still showing downward pressures but will end on March 12th. a trade thru 1113 signals a new uptrade which should test the recent high.
Daily trade is up after the 1072 entry price was met on the 12th. the 1108 target has been met and the market is finding that area of 1108-1113 to be resistance. we see that it is also the entry price for the new weekly up move. a close below 1086 will signal a new down move. trade pressures are up and one cycle has turned up and another down cycle ends March 9th. you can see the chop that is associated with these conflicts between trade and time pressures.
S&P Futures
S&P tried to make a new high and failed.
Long term –
the weekly upmove attempted to trigger the new long signal at 1113 and failed at an old daily target of 1110. the next downside target of 976 remains. the downside time pressures end this week.
Daily –
have been in the uptrade since the 1072 entry, still active with the next target of 1118, but keep those stops tight. this down cycle ends 2-26 and a longer cycle ends 3-11.
a trade thru 1086 starts a new down move to 1059.
the intraday move has already triggered a short cycle short entry.
Crude Light
Sunday night, up 60 cents in the overnight trading to 80.66
Long term –
still in the retracement up from the 2008 crash. weekly target is 97.98.
Daily –
in the uptrade , next target is 83.79. 77.18 will start a new down leg to 73.46.
Metals
gold –
met the 1130 target with a 1129.50 high on the 17th. the pull back has produced a new entry at 1118 with a 1151 target. trading pressures are extended up and a trade below 1100 would signal lower.
silver –
daily trade still up, next target up is 16.87. trade pressures remain up while cycle pressures are still down. longer term pressures are down. 15.47 starts a new down trade.
Platinum –
Up trade pressures and downward time pressures seem to be moving the market sideways. 1518 has set the next up target at 1585. and a close below 1500 will turn PL negative.
Palladium –
PA is at the 445 target with the weekly and daily trade pressures extended; and should produce consolidation or retracement. 425 starts a new down leg.
S&P Futures
the S&P —
Long term –
the long cycle is in a long trade to 1209. 950 starts the new down trade to 752. both time and trade pressures are down.
the weekly has been in the short trade since 1079 with a 976 target. trading pressures are now turning up. the time cycle ends on the 26th and 1113 would trigger a new upmove to 1162 then 1186.
Daily –
the 1072 entry has met its 1103 target and 1118 is the next target. a trade below 1083 will start a new short trade.
Metals and Oil Futures
Gold –
triggered the long trade at 1064, moved to the 1096 target, pulled back and has gapped up 25 pts today. next target is 1130.
long term pressures still down. a trade down thru 1091 would signal lower.
Silver –
Long term entry still 16.40, but will face the 16.99 resistance. long term trade and cycle pressures still down.
daily cycle traded down to extended target of 14.50.
Long entry price of 15.20 traded to first target of 15.75; pulled back, then traded thru new short term long entry with target of 16.85.
15.12 entry price for the short trade.
Platinum –
Long term trade still up, pressures down but extended.
Daily long entry was at 1518 next target 1585. also a short cycle target at 1561. time pressures down, trade pressures up. 1494 is the short entry price.
Palladium –
Long entry 413, next target 445. time and trade pressures up. also a short cycle target at 445. 410 is the short trade entry. March 3 the time pressures turn down.
Crude Light –
the long entry of 73 traded up then retraced to the entry price. the trade thru 74.32 gave a new long entry signal with a 77.62 target which coincides with the 78.09 pivot.
a trade down thru 73.43 would negate this move and signal a test of the recent lows.